DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 17th, 2015 at 1:20:20 PM permalink
Maybe Pharoah will be bet bet down to 6-ish, or maybe even a bit harder. There's a tendency toward a recency bias in the wagering market for these future pools; the Florida & Louisiana Derbys will be run on the 28th during the time the wagering window is open for the final Pool #4, while the Bluegrass & Wood won't be in the books or much on the public's radar. I won't be interested in buying anything paying under about 12 or 15/1 at that time. Which may mean standing pat for straight win tickets on prospects that I think may get the distance and could improve the necessary five lengths or more from this point while doing it.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
March 17th, 2015 at 5:54:04 PM permalink
With the loss of Texas Red on the Derby trail, the 1st and 2nd Derby Pool exacta favorite is gone. Unfortunately, some serious Derby future pool money went "bye-bye" for many (not for me, but I have lost my share). Hopefully he heals up properly and can make an appearance later in the Triple Crown.

I wonder if one of the UAE Derby hopefuls will make the last Pool? The race will be over the same weekend (March 28th) as the 4th Derby Pool. Not really sure who they could pick (if any): Mubtaahij, Maftool, Sir Fever?

We only have 9 prep races left (10 if you include the Lexington Stakes). About the Lexington Stakes:
This race has been moved back one week to take the place of the recently moved back Blue Grass Stakes (April 4th). The 11/16mile race earns little points but does allow those on the Derby bubble a late last chance. With 3 weeks now between the Lexington/KDerby, combined with the new dirt surface @ Keeneland, and the possible need for a few more Derby points the race has more importance this year IMO.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
March 17th, 2015 at 6:44:46 PM permalink
Wednesday March 18 - Oaklawn Park race#8 (1mile -Alw 67k - 3yo and up)

#5 - I Spent It - 1st Derby pool horse making his 3yo debut. Very late to the party, first 2 turn race, but his last 3 workouts have been bullets. He is listed as the morning line 2/1 favorite.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 17th, 2015 at 6:50:17 PM permalink
Texas Red is most likely my fault. My punishment every year for including a few smallish gutless "to be safe(r) just in case" wagers on some combinations that I don't actually like for this strongly enough to think of wanting to bet them straight-up on the nose. It is my annual weenie-tax, that I deserve to pay to the extent I repeat that Oscar Mayer wagering behavior. They rarely make the race, and never light the board to pay on my weenie insurance policy. Ocho and Int'l Star are other little exacta weenies of mine that remain live... for the moment. In my own defense, my wager weenies do get proportionately smaller every year, and I could not be described as contributing any major part to that "serious" money in the case of TRed. Especially not with the "field."
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
March 17th, 2015 at 7:33:56 PM permalink
The line dude at Westgate told me he is going to prove up unrivaled at 200's tomorrow and my wife has given me the green light to pull the trigger. I will have a saver on mubtaahij at 85's and that will conclude my futures book.

Don't have a ticket, don't have a chance :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 3750
March 17th, 2015 at 8:35:53 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Wednesday March 18 - Oaklawn Park race#8 (1mile -Alw 67k - 3yo and up)

#5 - I Spent It - 1st Derby pool horse making his 3yo debut. Very late to the party, first 2 turn race, but his last 3 workouts have been bullets. He is listed as the morning line 2/1 favorite.



I think he's too late. Is he going to go from this race to the Ark Derby in 3 1/2 weeks, then the KY Derby? Seems too much.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 18th, 2015 at 6:38:55 AM permalink
That Oaklawn race is an interesting spot for him, and not a common sort. Obviously he's up against it to get into consideration for this. In some ways it seems similar to Danza's circumstances last year, who'd performed well as a 2 YO when making his 2nd lifetime start for 3rd place in the Sarataga Special, then had to go on the shelf for months, ran one so-so race 1st back for 3rd place in a March N1X allowance, next won the Arkansas Derby at a big price for Pletcher ($84.60 cha-ching), and got third in the Kentucky Derby and I think probably should have been at least 2nd. I liked him in the Derby. The Kentucky one.

I Spent It won the Saratoga Special impressively in his 2nd lifetime race, and after his juvenile stakes races last year has been away due to surgery for a bone chip. Obviously he must not have been ready for a race until now (if he is) and apparently Dutrow is taking the most suitable return option he found available around two turns, and not what he likely would've drawn up for him if he had many choices. This "allowance" is a N3X open to older horses. That's the kind that often can have some tough older stakes veterans, and this one does with a graded stakes winner, a multiple graded stakes placed runner, and another graded stakes placed entrant... four and five year-olds. I want to see how he runs, keeping in mind that he's being thrown in with some of his elders in the highest level of restricted type allowance that Oaklawn offers. This is arguably a tougher spot than either the Southwest Stakes or the Rebel for a 3yo trying to become a two turn horse for the first time in his life.

2014 Saratoga Special:



2013 Saratoga Special:



2014 Arkansas Derby (you may recognize some other names from this; they won some other races later):



I Spent It is a little on the light side to me for getting 10f in May, as I have him at 7.0f. Marginal. He's another by Super Saver, but he doesn't get a lot of help for that from Sky Mesa on the bottom. Looks more like a good middle distance runner to me, and would have to outrun his pedigree a bit to get there at 1m & 1/4 at Churchill. Danza came in at a solid 7.3f+.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
March 18th, 2015 at 3:23:47 PM permalink
Spent:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/OP031815USA8.pdf
Quote: Equibase

I SPENT IT last to leave, moved up off the inside, got out a bit into the first turn, chased the winner up the backstretch, gave way.

I wouldn't have described it that kindly.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 121
  • Posts: 3750
March 18th, 2015 at 6:15:13 PM permalink
So my big Futures bet was $10 exacta - field / all in pool 1. So far that bet is looking awful. It looks like it will either lose, or I'll lose money on it if it can somehow win. Oh well.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
March 18th, 2015 at 10:30:18 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Spent:
I wouldn't have described it that kindly.


I Spent It looked very green and keen to haul-a** around Oaklawn. He clearly needed that one. If happy/healthy after the race, I still would not be surprised to see him in another prep race before the Derby. The lure of the race is just so strong. I have watched more 3yo races "live" this year than I ever have in the past. One thing is surprising: the power of a promising 3yo colt to draw betting money in their races.


Quote: FinsRule

So my big Futures bet was $10 exacta - field / all in pool 1. So far that bet is looking awful. It looks like it will either lose, or I'll lose money on it if it can somehow win. Oh well.


I guess you did not box-it due to the expense/value, but I would be very happy with that ticket. There is still time for the field runners to develop. IIRC, DrawingDead kinda liked the makeup (pedigrees) of the first pool. And the current "top 3" betting interests were in the pool: Dortmund, American Pharoah, Carpe Diem.
----------


In other news, Imperia was entered and then quickly scratched from the Spiral Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=48597
Not a good sign for him.

  • Jump to: