First Saturday in May

Texas Red will be headed to Arkansas because he needs a top 3 finish (or top 2) to make the Derby. Arkansas should be easier than Cali, even if Pharoah stays there.

Brandi out of the Rebel. Pharoah will go off at 1-2. My oaks bet on Callback looks better too.

Would love to catch Pharoah at 1-2. Likely 1-5.

Really bummed about TCBrandi. With the defections of Barbados, The Great War, Khozan, and Take Charge Brandi, my # of "live" future tickets is dwindling.

Quote: Sabretom2

Would love to catch Pharoah at 1-2. Likely 1-5.

He will get bet hard in this race. He is strictly a bet against for me in this spot, from a value perspective. Negatives: 1st start after injury, 1st start in 6 months, 2nd time around 2 turns, shipping in to new track/surface, 1st 3yo start. Positives: great workouts, solid pp's, the field may be sub-par, and his potential. I believe his connections would be content with a top 3 finish for the comebacker. We do not know the Rebel entrants yet, but I would consider Bold Conquest or The Truth Or Else. Both are solid 3 year olds at this point with experience over the surface (Southwest). I still think AP is a Derby contender, but he may need a race (or two) to get his form back.

Quote: Keeneone

. I believe his connections would be content with a top 3 finish for the comebacker. We do not know the Rebel entrants yet, but I would consider Bold Conquest or The Truth Or Else. Both are solid 3 year olds at this point with experience over the surface (Southwest). I still think AP is a Derby contender, but he may need a race (or two) to get his form back.

You should get a pretty good price on any horse other than AP. At this point, I have AP in the derby money.

Differences of opinion are the essential ingredient for a horse race, and a wagering market. I currently have eight straight win betting interests in the futures (but with more than that tied up in exacta combinations). Seven of the eight could technically be considered "live" at this point, but in practical reality I really only consider four of them to be really live with tickets that are worth as much or more than I paid for them. That's a little less than I'd have hoped for as they get into mid-March, but not by much. I'll probably be adding one more in the next few weeks, during the relative quiet time on the calendar for three year-olds between this weekend and the major March 28 events that have significant Derby implications. I'll have more future book straight win wagering interests than I usually do, but I do think this was a deeper than average crop.

Betting against some popular heavily backed young colts with characteristics that scream "middle distance" horse, and that I believe are unlikely to be mile and a quarter horses, as prospective wagering interests later in a Grade 1 against the kind of large field that's usually likely to provide for a very honest pace or more for the distance & surface, is exactly what I look to use the future wagers to do every year. And that's what I have been trying to accomplish with futures again this year: betting against the Pharoahs, Dortmunds, Upstarts, Kabeirs. Against them being first specifically at ten furlongs, at Churchill, in May. And against their price in the futures wagering market.

But, for me that's a different and less difficult matter than finding a spot providing the right productive opportunity to do so in something like one of the lesser Grade 2 races, at a mile and a sixteenth at Oaklawn. Particularly when a trainer like Baffert, with his peculiar form cycle patterns, has had plenty of opportunity away from prying eyes to refresh them with his magic oats. My problem with that is I haven't yet found a way to handicap his "veterinarian." And I'd be reluctant to go any further with that last part in someone else's public forum, but there's enough out in the public domain for any extra-inquisitive sorts around who may want to dig a little further than the average gambler to follow their curiosity as far as it leads them, perhaps starting out with Googling search terms like "Baffert + sudden death" with or without some other modifying search filters such as "hormone."

But I haven't even looked at the field yet for the Rebel.

I think I almost certainly stumbled onto a stale fixed-odds line for Carpe Diem on one of my tickets potentially returning over 25 times my wager, and was probably the last and maybe even the only one to do so as late as I did for that one (I have multiple tickets on him at different prices booked at different times).

Good luck.

Saturday 3/14/15 Oaklawn Park race#10 Rebel Stakes Grade 2 (1^1/16mile - 750k):

1 - The Truth Or Else (Wynn 100/1, W Hill 100/1, Westgate 75/1)
2 - Madefromlucky (Wynn 40/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 50/1)
3 - Tizwonderfulcreek
4 - American Pharoah (Wynn 9/1, W Hill 10/1, Westgate 7/1)
5 - Bold Conquest (Wynn 85/1, W Hill 75/1, Westgate 40/1)
6 - Paid Admission
7 - Sakima (W Hill 150/1)

-Do any of these have a DD AWD over 7.3?
American Pharoah (1-2 morning line) is the lone speed in here. Even if there was another speedy colt entered, he would still be the "speed of the speed". How far will he go on the front end in his comeback race? Baffert's record in this race is very impressive as well. He is strictly the horse to beat. If Bold Conquest can get up to 10/1(or higher) I would consider him good value in this spot. I will wait until race time/post parade to see how the horses look on the track. I will also be interested to see how big the show pool gets before the race....
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Nice day of racing @ Oaklawn with 3 stakes races (Azeri,Razorback H.,Rebel). Race #9 (right before the Rebel) is also a 3yo race @ 1^1/16mile for maidens. It may provide useful time comparisons with the Rebel.

I can't remember the last time I saw a program morning line of 1-2.

Quote: Keeneone

-Do any of these have a DD AWD over 7.3?

Madefromlucky 7.5f; Bold Conquest 7.3f*; Sakima 7.3f.

*[Bold Conquest's pedigree has a higher number now than what I posted for him last fall, after recalculation from additional racing data provided by the still relatively small sample of the progeny of his young sire.]

Quote: Keeneone

I will also be interested to see how big the show pool gets before the race....

Interesting thought. Calling all bridge jumpers. I'd like to see where some of these are really at, and I do want to watch 'Lucky & maybe 'Conquest. But in the short field, with a likely lack of pace pressure, and on that track on a big stakes card when they've sometimes been known to have it 'souped-up' for a big day in old Hot Springs, if A.P. gets to just lope around and draw off I think I'll probably get to learn very little. Whatever happened to the honored venerable racing tradition of sending out a sacrificial "rabbit?" Where are the nutcases & hopeless fruitcake entries like Hero of Humor and Runhappy when they are actually needed? For rooting interest and to stay out of trouble where I don't like the way the race shape sets up, I'll plan to play a degenerate flea style bingo ticket, putting a whole two bucks on the late double tying up 'Lucky & with a maiden I like in the last race. Good luck.

Since I'm mostly done getting ready for my weekend, in case some don't know why a mountain village in Arkansas of all places came to have a major racetrack:

Quote:

Leo McLaughlin was elected mayor of Hot Springs in 1926, and fulfilled a campaign promise to allow gambling. Illegal gambling had long been a staple of life in Hot Springs, but McLaughlin took it to a new level using voter fraud and other unlawful tactics to drive his political machine. During his 22-year reign, Hot Springs became a haven for notorious criminals and mobsters, including Owen “Owney” Madden, Charles “Lucky” Luciano, and Al Capone.

http://www.hotsprings.org/pages/history-buffs/

And creating the Las Vegas Mob Museum as a tourist attraction was not an original idea at all:

Quote: Gangster Museum of America

Take yourself back to the days of the 20's, 30's, and 40's when mineral water, gambling, bootlegging, and other extreme pleasures brought visitors from all over the world to Hot Springs, Arkansas. The Gangster Museum of America is an historic and entertaining account of how some of the most notorious criminals in America co-existed with the quaint population of this little valley town in the mountains of central Arkansas. The audiovisual experience of the seven galleries...

http://www.tgmoa.com/

Quote: DrawingDead

I can't remember the last time I saw a program morning line of 1-2.

How about two 1-2 morning line favorites on one race card?
Azeri Stakes race#7 - Untapable 1-2

Quote: DrawingDead

Madefromlucky 7.5f; Bold Conquest 7.3f*; Sakima 7.3f.

Thanks for this.

Quote: DrawingDead

Since I'm mostly done getting ready for my weekend, in case some don't know why a mountain village in Arkansas of all places came to have a major racetrack:

Another interesting thing about Oaklawn: No turf course! All dirt, all the time.

Do any sports books have a bet for
"Will a horse win the Triple Crown in 2015?"

If so, what are the odds?