DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 1st, 2015 at 3:59:53 AM permalink
I haven't added anything new in my straight win interests from Pool #3, but I have been arbitraging some of the exactas again, and have now added Danzig Moon to those tied up in various combinations that way. Given the timing, I think he deserves to be a bit of a price in the pool, as he sure is right now early on the Sunday morning the pool closes, as the longest shot on the tote board at this moment at 67/1, but I think potentially a live longshot. Doesn't hurt to have Mark Casse handling him, as he's got a better than decent record of preparing four-hoofed athletes to get a distance, if they have it in them.

Since Gulfstream has washed out to sea and at last report was sinking below the waves somewhere between Key West and Havana, below I've constructed my own personal "top ten" list of favorite contenders to actually win this thing; my highly personal opinionated judgment list, only moderately seasoned with data, and which in some respects is against the grain of the consensus of opinion in the business at this point. I post it here knowing I'm very likely to think it looks ridiculous after a couple of races in about a week, so I sure don't expect anyone else should treat it with reverence. It is just the sort of silly mischief idle hands get into on a weekend when Aqueduct is frozen over and the stewards at Gulfstream Park are snorkeling in the attic.

  1. Carpe Diem
  2. Khozan
  3. Far From Over
  4. Bolo
  5. Danzig Moon
  6. Itsaknockout
  7. Lord Nelson
  8. Ocho Ocho Ocho
  9. International Star
  10. Materiality

    "Also-eligible" list:

  11. Cyrus Alexander
  12. Gold Shield

So if the likes of American Pharoah, Upstart, or Dortmund get their picture taken nibbling on roses on May 2nd, as many think they will, I am burnt stale toast. And if that comes to pass, with the support of family and friends and a modest amount of professional help and sales of blood plasma I shall find a way to live with that; see: "2014 Breeders' Cup."
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 1st, 2015 at 6:23:00 AM permalink
Results this week:

Thur. 2/26 Fairgrounds race #7 (AOC - 50k - 1mile 70yards)
Bubba Roan won this @ 60/1!
Defondo (Wynn 250/1) - 2nd.
Vici (Wynn 175/1) - 3rd.
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Fri. 2/27 Santa Anita race #6 (AOC - 80k - 1 1/16mile)
Verraco won by a neck.
Cyrus Alexander (Wynn 40/1,W Hill 40/1,Westgate 75/1) - Ran second.
- Another second for C. Alexander. I like his seasoning, consistency, and his competitiveness. He will probably only get one shot at Derby points, so he will have to turn in a big performance. The California contingent of Derby hopefuls is also looking quite competitive.
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Fri. 2/27 Laurel Park race #9 (AOC - 40k - 1mile)
4 - Ghost Bay (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 125/1)
5 - Top of Mind (Wynn 200/1)
- Both these are working well in Maryland after recent wins.

No racing due to track conditions/weather.
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Sat. 2/28 Turfway Park race #6 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (125k - 1 1/16mile)
Royal Son (Wynn 200/1,W Hill 200/1,Westgate 300/1) - Won, crossing the line first in his young racing career.
The Great War (Wynn 45/1,W Hill 60/1,Westgate 40/1) - Last place
- Nice win for Royal Son, and The Great War had issues. As a non-point earning race it may be best to keep the result in perspective and wait to see where these 2 show up next (Spiral Stakes?).
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 1st, 2015 at 6:55:43 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Sat. 2/28 Turfway Park race #6 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (125k - 1 1/16mile)
Royal Son (Wynn 200/1,W Hill 200/1,Westgate 300/1) - Won, crossing the line first in his young racing career.
The Great War (Wynn 45/1,W Hill 60/1,Westgate 40/1) - Last place
- Nice win for Royal Son, and The Great War had issues. As a non-point earning race it may be best to keep the result in perspective and wait to see where these 2 show up next (Spiral Stakes?).

This morning it turns out that multiple press accounts are reporting that The Great War did bleed.
Quote: Tom LaMarra, The Blood-Horse

The Great War checked in last; it was found that the colt bled despite having been treated with the anti-bleeding medication furosemide.

BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90393/royal-son-easily-captures-battaglia-memorial#ixzz3T91TCdWw

Of major further interest about that to me is that the official Racing Form and Equibase chart notes state that he bled:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/TP022815USA6.pdf

So it was not something more subtle discovered later by scoping him. In order for that to have gotten noted in the race result chart, he had to have been bleeding profusely enough that he was visibly spraying blood from his nostrils coming off the track to be unsaddled in the paddock, in spite of running on Lasix. And with that comes a buildup of respiratory scar tissue that will tend to further diminish his wind. I'm no vet, just a bettor and appreciative follower of the sport who tries to pay some attention to stuff, and opinions on this sort of thing may often tend to differ, since it comes down to a matter of degree, and I haven't seen anything on how his connections say they are viewing it yet... but I said that to say with a significant episode of respiratory bleeding through Lasix any notion of him going on to the enormous physical stress of a Grade 1 ten furlong race should be off the table, and as far as I'm concerned The Great War is over and done.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 1st, 2015 at 7:07:25 AM permalink
The San Felipe Stakes is potentially coming up as a very deep field. I have read possible runners include:
Firing Line, Dortmund (may wait until SA Derby), Prospect Park, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Lord Nelson, and Bolo.

A closer look @ Bolo:
I kinda wish I had made a wager on him back when he was 100/1+ and DDead was mentioning him. The only concern was whether he would actually race on the dirt. I think they know they have a special turf horse here, but the lure of the Derby is drawing them in. This is understandable when you have a talented, nice running 3yo. I have read that V. Espinoza may become his rider for the San Felipe. He has 3 turf races under his belt (2yo season) and he now has 6 published dirt works since last raced in the Eddie Logan Stakes. So we have a fresh horse coming into a big race that has looked like a classic turf presser/closer. With the speedy colts signed up for the San Felipe (Ocho Ocho Ocho, Lord Nelson etc.), I really like him in this race, assuming he officially enters it. Here is his most recent workout: He is the Dark Bay (almost black looking in the video)



I like the look of this colt, and I am glad he may get a chance to try the dirt against a very solid field.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 1st, 2015 at 8:40:32 AM permalink
Wow Mr. One, I think you just raised the level of this thread a couple of notches. The 'black-type listed' thread just became a Grade 2. Ferreting out video of morning works. I'd guess something considerably less than 1% of racegoers have ever seen a workout for a racehorse, and that's among the regular bread and butter longtime mainline player crowd, not the one day a year fancy hat race fans.

As I imagine you probably know well, beyond the time on clocker's stopwatches, I think physical observation of how a racehorse is moving over the ground is subtle, hard to describe, difficult for many to learn to pick up, and important. As well as relating it to how the exercise rider is using her/his hands and other cues to urge or not or ask for what as they're doing it. And important becomes absolutely vital as the final goal approaches and they put in some final works on the surface at Churchill. But you knew that.

I saw an interview on HRTV with the owner of Take Charge Brandi the other day. He was brimming with enthusiasm for going to the Rebel with her. And it was not just impulsive talk on his part; he recited chapter and verse of his reasons, and had clearly not just popped off with it when the microphone was put in his face. So if that page isn't in D. Wayne's script, he's probably got some serious diplomacy to do with the gentleman who writes the checks, or a newly edited page to put in it.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 1st, 2015 at 6:16:01 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Wow Mr. One, I think you just raised the level of this thread a couple of notches. The 'black-type listed' thread just became a Grade 2. Ferreting out video of morning works. I'd guess something considerably less than 1% of racegoers have ever seen a workout for a racehorse, and that's among the regular bread and butter longtime mainline player crowd, not the one day a year fancy hat race fans.


To be honest, I was just searching Youtube for a number of horse's past races and happened to notice his workout video. I am glad I did get to watch it. I saw an eager horse run off, slow down when asked, follow his training partner (getting dirt in his face), switch inside towards the rail down the lane, and move smoothly/effortlessly with almost no movement from his rider. I see a fresh, versatile horse, with tactile speed, and proven closing ability down the lane.

I was surprised (not shocked) to see Bolo added to the third Derby pool, and felt he deserved a closer look for his 3yo return.

Quote: DrawingDead

As I imagine you probably know well, beyond the time on clocker's stopwatches, I think physical observation of how a racehorse is moving over the ground is subtle, hard to describe, difficult for many to learn to pick up, and important. As well as relating it to how the exercise rider is using her/his hands and other cues to urge or not or ask for what as they're doing it. And important becomes absolutely vital as the final goal approaches and they put in some final works on the surface at Churchill. But you knew that.


I do try to read the "clocker's notes" in the weeks before the Derby, but so many of them include good/great/awesome comments. It can be difficult to eliminate many runners with the information.

Quote: DrawingDead

I saw an interview on HRTV with the owner of Take Charge Brandi the other day. He was brimming with enthusiasm for going to the Rebel with her. And it was not just impulsive talk on his part; he recited chapter and verse of his reasons, and had clearly not just popped off with it when the microphone was put in his face. So if that page isn't in D. Wayne's script, he's probably got some serious diplomacy to do with the gentleman who writes the checks, or a newly edited page to put in it.


I would love to see TCB run in the Rebel. We will find out in -edited- next week when the entries/post draw happens.
---------

And now the bad news:
The Great War is off the K. Derby trail. From Blood-horse:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90397/the-great-war-no-longer-pursuing-derby
FinsRule
FinsRule
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March 1st, 2015 at 6:52:05 PM permalink
Ok, I'm here:

DD - Great call on The Great War bleeding. You nailed that right on the head.

I made one significant Oaks bet today in the future pool: Callback - $40 at 28-1. My wife wouldn't let me bet the full $100. I'm hoping Brandi runs in the Rebel and Derby, that helps Callback even more.

As for the Derby, the winner is either based out of Cali, or is going to be a big surprise. I'm really anticipating American Pharoah's debut. If I had to pick a winner right now it's him, but just because no one else has impressed me.

Derby season heats up on Saturday, I'm pumped. Saturday is going to be the best day of racing since Breeders'.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 2nd, 2015 at 3:20:05 AM permalink
Welcome back to the party, Rule. Your complementary themed hat and beer mug set are available over by the bar from the coat check gal.
Quote: FinsRule

...on the head.

Maybe my post about three weeks ago describing him as a fine Derby prospect could be shredded, made into pulp, and added to his feed. If it works, perhaps he could eventually come back to win a turf sprint somewhere at maybe five furlongs or so.

The final closing parimutual odds for the Pool #3 wagering interests:

    4/1 Mutual Field (all others)
    8/1 American Pharoah
    9/1 Dortmund
    10/1 Carpe Diem
    13/1 Far From Over
    13/1 Khozan
    14/1 Texas Red
    15/1 Upstart
    22/1 International Star
    23/1 Ocean Knight
    24/1 Ocho Ocho Ocho
    26/1 Prospect Park
    27/1 Keen Ice
    29/1 Firing Line
    30/1 Itsaknockout
    30/1 War Story
    31/1 Far Right
    34/1 Bolo
    39/1 Lord Nelson
    42/1 Danzig Moon
    43/1 Daredevil
    44/1 Mr. Z
    47/1 El Kabeir
    n/a The Great War
Win pool: $300,403; Exacta pool: $121,927; Pool #3 total wagering: $422,331.

Looks like Danzig Moon took some late money Sunday before the pool closed, and the field didn't quite so much.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 3rd, 2015 at 9:50:50 AM permalink
TCB will run in the Rebel:
http://www.drf.com/news/take-charge-brandi-face-males-rebel-stakes

Her goal is still the Oaks, according to DW Lucas, probably pending how well she does in this race and her future training. She will also get a jockey change, TBA. 2 Eclipse Champions will race against one another. Wonderful. I hope the race gets a little press and draws some interest from a wider range of fans.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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March 3rd, 2015 at 5:20:34 PM permalink
If she wins this race she won't be pointed toward the Oaks.

For the record, I say she finishes 4th. Put me down for a SF - Pharoah / ALL / ALL / Brandi.

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