am19psu
am19psu
Joined: May 12, 2010
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June 7th, 2010 at 4:16:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think you could look at any single sport and find the probability of the home team winning is significantly over 50%. I'm not sure if it is not wanting to let down the home fans, and thus trying harder, or more tangible benefits of playing at home, like knowing the field, and the fans being noisy or quiet according at the right times. Probably some combination. I find in baseball the odds are better betting on home teams, especially home underdogs. I find the odds about the same on home and away teams in football and basketball, all other things being equal.



Generally, home teams get about an extra 20-25 cents on their moneylines in baseball, football gives 3-3.5 points, and basketball gives 3.5-4 points.
slyther
slyther
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June 7th, 2010 at 4:16:41 PM permalink
I would take that bet... The World Cup tournament is a minefield where the result in many matches comes down to penalties or a referee decision.

I saw Spain at 4/1 on Bodog yesterday.

Travel doesn't matter as much for the World Cup as the teams are in South Africa for a couple weeks ahead of the tournament.
Nareed
Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 4:52:54 PM permalink
I stipulate travel doesn't matter for the World Cup.

Regarding football, there's a very strong belief that cold weather teams have a big advantage when playing home against warm weather teams. One statistic to test is Miami vs New England, if anyone's interested. The weather difference is extreme, and they play twice a year.

Pundits ahve designated Heinz Field in pittsburgh as being murder on kickers. Supposedly the Steelers0 kicker is used to the odd condition and he has no trouble.

There are rumors and legends about other stadiums, too.
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dwheatley
dwheatley
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June 7th, 2010 at 6:13:04 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Regarding football, there's a very strong belief that cold weather teams have a big advantage when playing home against warm weather teams.



Team Canada has only qualified for the World Cup once, in 1986. They were actually the CONCACAF champs that year, since Mexico didn't have to qualify as hosts.

How did Canada qualify? They invited Honduras up to Newfoundland for the 2nd leg of the home & away. The Honduran team was wearing mitts and toques.

:)
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odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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June 7th, 2010 at 6:52:35 PM permalink
you havent told us if you are taking that bet!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Nareed
Nareed
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June 7th, 2010 at 7:09:56 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

you havent told us if you are taking that bet!



Sorry. I did take it. it's for one hundred pesos, which should be about less than US $8.

I was worried the co-worker would insist on odds, but he didn't. If he had, well, he said "I'm picking one team, and you're pretty much picking the other 31. You have a 31% higher chance of wining." :)
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FinsRule
FinsRule
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June 8th, 2010 at 5:19:34 AM permalink
If Spain is 4-1, that means they have a 20% chance of winning. Of course, listed odds aren't true odds, or the casinos wouldn't make any money. Figuring 20% of that 20% is "juice", I'd say the public believes Spain has about a 16% chance of winning. Meaning you have an 84% chance of winning. Meaning you have about a 68% higher chance of winning.

If a casino were to offer a bet like that, we would be outraged!
Nareed
Nareed
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June 8th, 2010 at 7:21:23 AM permalink
Most people don't really understand percentages or odds. Combine the two and it's a nuclear bomb of ignorance and confussion.
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EnvyBonus
EnvyBonus
Joined: Nov 24, 2009
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June 8th, 2010 at 8:18:01 PM permalink
Quote: Roghaltz


I don't believe there is anything to that list. The list is made up of perennial soccer powers, so its not surprising they win the WC. It's a small sample.



I agree. Even though you admittedly picked an arbitrary starting point, you listed every country that has ever won a World Cup tournament except Uruguay.
Nareed
Nareed
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June 9th, 2010 at 7:04:07 AM permalink
Quote: EnvyBonus

I agree. Even though you admittedly picked an arbitrary starting point, you listed every country that has ever won a World Cup tournament except Uruguay.



Well, I looked at the full list and the pattern starts to set in early. Here:

1930 Uruguay (host)
1934 Italy (host)
1938 Italy (previous champion)
1950 Uruguay (previous champion)
1954 Germany (neither host nor previous champion)
1958 Brazil (neither host nor previous champion)
1962 Brazil (previous champion)
1966 England (host)
1970 Brazil (previous champion)
1974 Germany (previous champion and host)
1978 Argentina (host)
1982 Italy (previous champion)
1986 Argentina (previous champion)
1990 Germany (previous champion)
1994 Brazil (previous champion)
1998 France (host)
2002 Brazil (previous champion)
2006 Italy (previous champion)

Those are all the World Cups ever played. Only twice the winner was neither host nor a previous winner. And the last time that happened was 52 years ago. I say that's a pattern.

We cana rgue that there are eras to the World Cup. Indeed there are. The first ones were by invitation, rather than through regional elimination rounds. Travel across the world in the 1930s was much different from that in the 1950s. But the champion teams remain quite constant in every era.

BTW, would you believe the United States took third place in 1930?
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