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steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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September 18th, 2014 at 6:40:08 AM permalink
So I thought that I'd give this a shot. Have no idea how this will come out since it's an initial run of a new algorithm.

Week 3 Picks:
Tampa Bay 236
Cleveland 103
Oakland 800
San Diego 116
St. Louis -105
Washington 237
N.Y. Giants 109
Arizona 131
Denver 195
Pittsburgh 158
Chicago 127
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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September 18th, 2014 at 9:27:48 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

So I thought that I'd give this a shot. Have no idea how this will come out since it's an initial run of a new algorithm.

Week 3 Picks:
Tampa Bay 236
Cleveland 103
Oakland 800
San Diego 116
St. Louis -105
Washington 237
N.Y. Giants 109
Arizona 131
Denver 195
Pittsburgh 158
Chicago 127



Biggest position on the Raiders? I have performed terribly on the moneyline this season, so I can't criticize your algorithm, except to say that it is probably a good bet, because I wouldn't have taken it. Good luck!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
steeldco
steeldco
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September 18th, 2014 at 1:20:02 PM permalink
Hey Ayecarumba, Thanks. I certainly understand the probabilities of Oakland hitting. This is the first crack at trying to find an algorithm that will work. I didn't have time to back test so I am sure that there will be plenty of tweaks.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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September 18th, 2014 at 1:21:04 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Biggest position on the Raiders? I have performed terribly on the moneyline this season, so I can't criticize your algorithm, except to say that it is probably a good bet, because I wouldn't have taken it. Good luck!



BTW, Oakland isn't the biggest position, it is the highest payoff however. I'm wagering 100 on Oakland in hopes of winning 800.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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September 23rd, 2014 at 3:58:42 AM permalink
Week 3 Results:
Tampa Bay -100
Cleveland -100
Oakland -100
San Diego +116
St. Louis -105
Washington -100
N.Y. Giants +109
Arizona +131
Denver -100
Pittsburgh +158
Chicago +127
Net +36
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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September 24th, 2014 at 4:40:04 AM permalink
Week 4 Picks:
N.Y. Giants 166
Tampa Bay 287
Oakland 163
Chicago 106
Philadelphia 210
Kansas City 165
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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September 30th, 2014 at 4:25:55 AM permalink
Well, that was a pretty good week.
Week 4 Results are:
N.Y. Giants +166
Tampa Bay +287
Oakland -100
Chicago -100
Philadelphia -100
Kansas City +165
Net +318

YTD Total: +354
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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October 1st, 2014 at 4:29:43 AM permalink
Week 5 Money Line Picks:

Minnesota 375
Buffalo 280
Baltimore 170
Houston 225
Tampa Bay 450
Atlanta 190
N.Y. Jets 260
Kansas City 235
New England 115
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 2nd, 2014 at 9:08:05 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Week 5 Money Line Picks:

Minnesota 375
Buffalo 280
Baltimore 170
Houston 225
Tampa Bay 450
Atlanta 190
N.Y. Jets 260
Kansas City 235
New England 115



Did your algorithm stop picking favorites for the moneyline, or is the vig too steep to justify the lay?

Instead of an algorithm, I talked it over with my German Shepherd. He let me know that Indy over Baltimore, and San Diego over the Jets should be double digit locks this week. Note that he picked Atlanta last week, so take his advice with a grain of kibble.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
steeldco
steeldco
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October 2nd, 2014 at 1:05:59 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Did your algorithm stop picking favorites for the moneyline, or is the vig too steep to justify the lay?

Instead of an algorithm, I talked it over with my German Shepherd. He let me know that Indy over Baltimore, and San Diego over the Jets should be double digit locks this week. Note that he picked Atlanta last week, so take his advice with a grain of kibble.



I just decided to try to replicate something along the lines of how I pick MLB dogs. No favorites allowed.
BTW, so you've set it up so that you can blame the dog, eh? Kinda like it ate your homework. :-)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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October 6th, 2014 at 2:56:39 PM permalink
Well, this week kind of sucked, but would have been nice had Tampa not crapped the bed towards the end of the game.....

Win/Loss
Minnesota -100
Buffalo 280
Baltimore -100
Houston -100
Tampa Bay -100
Atlanta -100
N.Y. Jets -100
Kansas City -100
New England 115
Net -305

Net
YTD 49
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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October 8th, 2014 at 5:06:52 AM permalink
Week 6 Money Line Picks:
Houston 130
Carolina 275
Pittsburgh 110
Buffalo 135
Miami 160
Tampa Bay 160
N.Y. Jets 350
Oakland 270
Chicago 155
St. Louis 165
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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October 14th, 2014 at 5:17:32 AM permalink
Week 6 Results:

Win/Loss
Houston -100
Pittsburgh -100
Buffalo -100
Miami -100
Tampa Bay -100
N.Y. Jets -100
Oakland -100
Chicago 155
St. Louis -100
Net -645


# of Picks Net
YTD 36 -596
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 14th, 2014 at 12:21:55 PM permalink
Is the goal to pick all winners, or enough winners to scratch out a small profit? The moneyline on the favorite seems to be a good value when the spread approaches double digits. Bucs, Raiders, Jets... seem a waste of money unless the payoff goes way beyond +700, but I suppose you only need a few upsets to be on the good side.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
steeldco
steeldco
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October 14th, 2014 at 12:35:02 PM permalink
The goal is to hit around 50% of the dogs. But, obviously, if it is hitting 43% and a number of the dogs are +300 and higher than I will gladly take that.
This is the first year that I am trying this with the NFL. I have no idea how well, or not well, it will work. The last 2 weeks have been discouraging.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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October 15th, 2014 at 1:59:55 PM permalink
Week 7 money line picks:

N.Y. Jets 400
Miami 155
New Orleans 125
Carolina 260
Atlanta 255
Cincinnati 155
Kansas City 190
Oakland 160
San Francisco 250
Houston 160
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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October 21st, 2014 at 5:02:35 AM permalink
Another piss poor week......
Tweaking the algorithm for the upcoming week. Hope to improve.

Week 7 Results:
Win/Loss
N.Y. Jets -100
Miami 155
New Orleans -100
Carolina -100
Atlanta -100
Cincinnati -100
Kansas City 190
Oakland -100
San Francisco -100
Houston -100
Net -455


# of Picks Winners Net
YTD 46 13 -1051
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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October 23rd, 2014 at 7:02:41 AM permalink
As previously stated, the algorithm has been changed for this week, and hopefully going forward if it works. Interestingly, it is now slanted to favorites (which I'm not please with but the backtesting indicated this would work). We'll see.

This week's picks:
Detroit -185
New England -240
Buffalo 135
Houston -130
Tampa Bay -140
Indianapolis -150
Dallas -103
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 23rd, 2014 at 1:08:56 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

As previously stated, the algorithm has been changed for this week, and hopefully going forward if it works. Interestingly, it is now slanted to favorites (which I'm not please with but the backtesting indicated this would work). We'll see.

This week's picks:
Detroit -185
New England -240
Buffalo 135
Houston -130
Tampa Bay -140
Indianapolis -150
Dallas -103



I'm surprised Denver didn't come up. Does the line have be under -300 or -250 to have enough value?

What do you think the fair line for Denver should be?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
wudged
wudged
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October 23rd, 2014 at 1:44:56 PM permalink
Might want to check that Dallas line before you make a wager..
steeldco
steeldco
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October 25th, 2014 at 8:14:08 AM permalink
Ayecarumba, sorry for the late response.

Actually, I see where, as wudged pointed out, my lines got all F'd up and I didn't even notice it. BTW, Dallas is -480 and should not be a play.

The revised list of picks is:
This week's picks:
Detroit -185
New England -240
Buffalo 135
Houston -130
Tampa Bay -140
Indianapolis -150
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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October 27th, 2014 at 2:21:38 PM permalink
Since there was no pick in tonight's game. The week 8 results are as follows:

Win/Loss At Risk
Detroit 100 185
New England 100 240
Buffalo 135 100
Houston 100 130
Tampa Bay -140 140
Indianapolis -150 150
Net 145 945


Not spectacular, but a nice return of +145 on a 945 investment. Hopefully, this is just the beginning of things.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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October 30th, 2014 at 4:51:24 AM permalink
Week 9 Picks:
Miami -128
Washington -110
Cleveland -300
Arizona 115
Seattle -2,500
Denver -160
Pittsburgh -110
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 30th, 2014 at 8:49:11 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Week 9 Picks:
Miami -128
Washington -110
Cleveland -300
Arizona 115
Seattle -2,500
Denver -160
Pittsburgh -110



Seattle -2,500? Really? Al Davis is rolling in his grave...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
steeldco
steeldco
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October 30th, 2014 at 9:36:43 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Seattle -2,500? Really? Al Davis is rolling in his grave...



Yep. Unbelievable. Al is not only rolling......he's spinning.
BTW, I see that the line is now down to -1600.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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October 30th, 2014 at 9:39:20 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Seattle -2,500? Really? Al Davis is rolling in his grave...



BTW, I see that 5 Dimes had it at -1600 this morning. Unfortunately, I use SBG because of ease of copying the data.
It won't matter. Oakland isn't winning.
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NokTang
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October 31st, 2014 at 8:45:50 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

BTW, I see that 5 Dimes had it at -1600 this morning. Unfortunately, I use SBG because of ease of copying the data.
It won't matter. Oakland isn't winning.



That is a lot to lay on an NFL game where anything can happen. They are professionals and turnovers can never be counted on/against happening. I guess you will reply that "the window is open" and many will take Oakland.
steeldco
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November 1st, 2014 at 7:24:20 AM permalink
NokTang, I couldn't disagree with you. It IS A LOT to lay. However, in the interest of being consistent, I'm going to follow the algorithm's picks. It's only money.......right?
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NokTang
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November 1st, 2014 at 8:01:47 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

NokTang, I couldn't disagree with you. It IS A LOT to lay. However, in the interest of being consistent, I'm going to follow the algorithm's picks. It's only money.......right?



Laying 25 to 1 on an NFL game seems out of character with any algorithm input. However, as you say, it's only money and easy money, much like some stock options we see on offer(actually sold). Risking $100,000.usd to gain/earn $400.usd isn't unusual but as with stock options, it only takes one upset to really ruin your day and bankroll.
steeldco
steeldco
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November 1st, 2014 at 8:29:31 AM permalink
NokTang, btw, that game can now be had at -1350. Much improved. Maybe by tomorrow, it'll be a bit better? More palatable even though it is still a lot.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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November 3rd, 2014 at 5:14:23 AM permalink
Week 9 Results:
Win/Loss
Miami 100
Washington -110
Cleveland 100
Arizona 115
Seattle 100
Denver -160
Pittsburgh 100
Net 245
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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November 7th, 2014 at 5:08:02 AM permalink
Week 10 picks:

Pittsburgh -225
Jacksonville +275
Denver -800
Arizona -340


I did have Cleveland last night, but I had forgotten to post the picks...............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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November 7th, 2014 at 6:11:20 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Week 10 picks:

Pittsburgh -225
Jacksonville +275
Denver -800
Arizona -340


I did have Cleveland last night, but I had forgotten to post the picks...............



Yes, you definitely picked Cleveland in the handicapping contest
steeldco
steeldco
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November 7th, 2014 at 6:14:31 AM permalink
Thanks for the confirmation MidwestAP!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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November 10th, 2014 at 2:45:31 PM permalink
Week 10 Results:
Win/Loss
Cleveland +250
Pittsburgh -225
Jacksonville -100
Denver +100
Arizona +100
Total +125
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
steeldco
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November 16th, 2014 at 7:09:32 AM permalink
Week 11 Picks:
Denver -550
New Orleans -340
Kansas City -130
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
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