NFL betting question(s), mainly to see if there is any value betting into this market below?

Hi,

I was just wondering if anyone had the specific break-down of games that were within 7 pts (inclusive) for:
(a) spread/handicap (preferably on game-day),
(b) game total for betting purposes (preferably on game-day), and
(c) game total after completion of game (the actual total)

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The reason i ask, is that there is a betting market that allows you to bet whether a game will fall within 7 pts (or not), see below:

for the week 1 Panthers vs Buccaneers, they have the odds under 'tri-bet' @ $1.70 for 'either team by 7pts or less', see link below

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/american-football/nfl-matches/Carolina-Panthers-At-Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers-1335499.html

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I do not need any generalised answers or statements, see example of a generalised statement below, (this is an example of what i DON'T want to know)

example: i know that historically about 46%*** of 'ALL' games fall within 7pts,

46.09%***: according to the website below, (different sets of historical data or 'time periods' will obviously get a different figure to this)

http://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-key-numbers/

nb: when using the above generalised answer of 46.09%, you get an EV of about -21.65% (@ odds of $1.70)

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again i am only interested in finding the break-downs for games within 7 pts compared to the games: (a) spread, (b) total for betting purposes, and (c) the actual total

thanks for your time in advance

Quote: ksdjdj

... i am only interested in finding the break-downs for games within 7 pts compared to the games: (a) spread, (b) total for betting purposes, and (c) the actual total

I think (a) and (b) will be hard to pin down. As I undertand it, (a) the spread and (b) the total, "move" as books attempt to balance the action on either side. I don't know of any non-proprietary database that keeps track of these movements, but perhaps others might.

You should be able to retrieve all of that data from this spreadsheet.

Ed, get 404

Shoot, the URL had a trailing "/" which it shouldn't have.

I removed that and it's now working fine. Thanks!

Now it loops back to this thread

Quote: chickenman

Now it loops back to this thread

Say what?

The link works fine for me, when I click it. I get the standard message asking me if I want to open the file, or save it, etc. When I select open it, it opens the excel spreadsheet just fine.

Nevermind, I got it. Spreadsheet downloads in Chrome. Duh

Thank you for the spreadsheet, sorry for the late reply

Quote: ksdjdj

Thank you for the spreadsheet, sorry for the late reply

No problem.

Unfortunately, the website I've been getting the data from for the past ten years or so, or more, hasn't updated anything in several weeks now. I've written to the site owner but he has yet to reply.

It appears I'm going to have to get my data from another site from now on.