Here is my thought process:
1.) Last year Eagles, coming off a last place finish had a very good 10-6 record. But as I said, having finished in last place the year before, they were playing a last place (easier) schedule. They had the benefit of the 2 of other teams in their division (Giants and Washington) having very subpar years, while Dallas, just had their typical mediocre season. So this year, having finished first in the division, the Eagles are playing the first place (tougher schedule).
2.) QB Nick Foles. Foles was in a competition with Michael Vick for the starting QB position last year, but lost that battle. Again, he couldn't win the starting job! So who could have imagined that he would come off the bench, in the second game and have the kind of year he had. 27 touchdown passes against 2 interception. Those are freakish numbers that the best QB's don't achieve. He isn't likely to come close to that again.
3.) Injuries. Now with Jackson having been released, I see the Eagles with 2 really good (maybe great players), Foles and running back McCoy. If either of them were to go down, there is a major drop off and I don't think they come close to 9 win.
So, I had decided a while ago that the Eagles would drop off from last years win total and was thinking about the under. Unfortunately, I was not alone. When the win totals came out, the Eagles wear at 8.5 rather than the 9 or 9.5 that I was anticipating. That was too low and I wasn't interested. But I guess the public is going the other way, thinking that Foles is in a class with Montana, Brady, Manning (peyton). So towards the end of preseason the number moved up to 9. But still everyone is betting over, to the point that if you are betting the under, you get odds also.
So today I placed my wagers, totaling $5000 on the Eagles under 9 wins @ +120. It is the only wager I intend to make this season, unless there comes a hedging opportunity on this wager in the final week. So, I guess I am routing against my eagles every game. :(
1960, some stadium in Phili, exhibition game with Johnny U on the bench. The Dutchman threw a few touchdown passes. He watched his receiver all the way, never a look anywhere else. That's all I remembber about the game. Oh , and that the stadium did not sell beer ! WTF !
Quote: kewlj
So today I placed my wagers, totaling $5000 on the Eagles under 9 wins @ +120. It is the only wager I intend to make this season, unless there comes a hedging opportunity on this wager in the final week. So, I guess I am routing against my eagles every game. :(
This is a terrible bet. The NFC East is so weak this year. For you to win, the Eagles have to win 8 games or less, and that's just not happening.
Chip Kelly is the best coach in the NFL by an order of magnitude. The Eagles have a deep, talented roster and have competitive advantages in everything from nutrition to stretching.
What odds would you give me on o10.5 wins?
Quote: sodawaterThis is a terrible bet. The NFC East is so weak this year. For you to win, the Eagles have to win 8 games or less, and that's just not happening.
Chip Kelly is the best coach in the NFL by an order of magnitude. The Eagles have a deep, talented roster and have competitive advantages in everything from nutrition to stretching.
What odds would you give me on o10.5 wins?
I agree. I'll be making a Washington under bet this week. Eagles should win 9-10 this year.
I was a Kelly skeptic, but, I see some signs that he might be a top level coach. When they brought in Foles and made some adjustments last year, they were one of the better teams in the NFL. I really liked how quickly and successfully they adjusted what they were doing. Dumping Jackson isn't great for my Foles bet, especially since Foles throws a beautiful deep ball, but it shows Kelly has a vision and is completely confident in the path to realizing the vision. I think he has enough to work with using Sproles, Ertz, McCoy, Cooper, Maclin, Celek and perhaps a decent rookie WR.
Also, I think there's still enough stubbornness in coaching across all sports that an open minded guy like Kelly can have a big edge, especially when it comes to something like winning an end of season tournament. I don't know about "best coach by orders of magnitude" but I do like having a team that pays attention to nutrition, sleep, stretching, etc. at the end of a grueling season.
However, I went after the long shots, not the O/U. There's a chance Kelly is the Popovich of football. There's a chance Foles is Americas Next Top QB. The NFL tourney is more crapshooty these days than it used to be.
But it can also go the other way. Foles has also shown some signs of weakness. I also generally look to bet against Philly teams, because I think they have the worst fan base in sports by a mile. We've all had people in our lives who are perpetually crouched, just waiting for us to slip up, so that they can magnify and savor our failures. Imagine living in a city full of such people. Trying to perform in front of thousands of them. No mystery why Philly's better on the road.
I hadn't thought that last part through. What's worse, an NFC championship game in NO, Seattle or Philly? Yikes.
Anyway, I can see them slipping too. You got a nice price on that, I think.
In looking at the schedule I see 7 wins. And that is if both their two star players, Foles and McCoy remain healthy. Let Foles miss a few games with Mark Sanchez at QB, and I am counting money early. :)
Even with a healthy Foles, you guys that are thinking he is going to come close to last year (and do so WITHOUT his top receiver) are dreaming. The guy is a late third round pick. He isn't a projected superstar. And by the way, legitimate projected top QBs, all suffer a second year drop off in performance. And while this technically isn't Foles second year, it is his second year as a starter. This year will count as his sophomore jinx. And btw, it really isn't a jinx, it is about adjustments by the defense. After a year there is tape to review and they can then find weaknesses and game plan accordingly.
I believe I have looked at this very objectively. I am after all an Eagles fan first. I didn't go into this hating them and wanting them to lose. It's not an emotional decision, not a wager made with heart, like when you wager FOR your team. I am very comfortable with this wager.
One last consideration: This type of wager usually comes down to the last game or two. The one thing you want to avoid, when needing one more loss, is to be playing a team in the final week that has clinched their playoff position and has nothing to play for, so they play scrubs. The Eagles final game is against the Giants and I doubt they will be in that position. Also, in the final week or two there are likely to be hedging options. That is why I make a little bigger bet than normal.
Quote: kewljSodawater, I am not booking your bet....I am not your bookie. Oh and it's a little early to be anointing Chip Kelly as hall of fame coach. The man had one winning season, with a last place schedule in a divison that underachieved. And he did so with his second string QB. Some may view this second factor as a plus for Kelly, I don't. He chose the wrong QB to start and just got lucky that the starter got hurt and made him look good. Oh and one more thing....The Eagles defense is bad....really bad. They will be near the bottom, if not AT the bottom of the league this year.
In looking at the schedule I see 7 wins. And that is if both their two star players, Foles and McCoy remain healthy. Let Foles miss a few games with Mark Sanchez at QB, and I am counting money early. :)
Even with a healthy Foles, you guys that are thinking he is going to come close to last year (and do so WITHOUT his top receiver) are dreaming. The guy is a late third round pick. He isn't a projected superstar. And by the way, legitimate projected top QBs, all suffer a second year drop off in performance. And while this technically isn't Foles second year, it is his second year as a starter. This year will count as his sophomore jinx. And btw, it really isn't a jinx, it is about adjustments by the defense. After a year there is tape to review and they can then find weaknesses and game plan accordingly.
.
I thought their D tightened up near year's end?
I'm actually kind of pro-Sanchez. He had nothing to work with in NY and I think he has pretty solid ability. I guess he's looked great with The Eagles. He supposedly has some issues with work ethic, but I think he's a pretty nice backup. There were even some mutterings of a QB controversy, though I think that's mostly the media generating stuff to talk about.
However, I think you've got some good points, otherwise. If I had to take an even money bet on "Does Foles have a top 4 QB rating?" I'd be looking at the "no." I agree, there's going to be a book on him now. It'll be an uphill struggle.
It's possible Kelly is just an egomaniac who ran off a star player over a weenie measuring contest and the league will have him figured out. However, I don't blame him too much for being seduced by the siren song of Michael Vick. Everyone has been at one time or another. I don't think starting Foles was the only adjustment they made. As I remember it, they had 1.5 games blowing the doors off with the Oregon offense. It got solved and they retooled everything in season and finished strong, which is what nudged me from being a skeptic to an optimist.
Plus, none of this stuff really happens in a vacuum anyway. In football, more than any other sport, landing in the right spot is one of the primary factors in your success. A lot of things have to break your way. Even if Foles and/or Kelly have the potential to be HOFers, that's a long way from it happening. Like I said, simply being in Philly is a strike against them.
Quote: sodawater
What odds would you give me on o10.5 wins?
I would give you +150 on that bet.
Quote: DRichI would give you +150 on that bet.
Lol, gonna have to do better than that. I would take +150 on o9.5 though
Quote: sodawaterThe problem with the number 9 is that you can lose but I don't see any way you can win. The Eagles might fall on exactly 9 wins for you to push, that is probably your best-case scenario. Personally, I think 11 wins are a lot more likely than 8 wins.
You still have a few days to get to Vegas to make that "easy money" bet.
Also the Eagles still have one of, if not the worst secondary in football and the front 7 isn't that much better. But when you have Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Brett Favre and Payton Manning rolled into one person (Nick Foles), Philly fans don't see this team losing all year.
Either Kewlj's year is going to continue as he has stated it has, or this will be a nice end of the year ticket to cash. I believe in his bet.
Quote: kewljSo today I placed my wagers, totaling $5000 on the Eagles under 9 wins @ +120. It is the only wager I intend to make this season, unless there comes a hedging opportunity on this wager in the final week. So, I guess I am routing against my eagles every game. :(
not looking too bad my friend
edit: actually I am just now catching up on scores and assumed they lost based on early reports. Oops. Well, anyway, I think your bet looks good.
Quote: chickenmanThey had to shake off the cobwebs and then trounced the Jags with - what, 34 unanswered points? We'll see.
Yeah, the Eagles week one didn't tell much. They are 1-0, where everyone, including I thought they would be.
The first half revealed some of the issues that I suspect might be an issue this season, with Foles turning the ball over 3 times. If he plays like that throughout the season, I will win my wager. On the other hand if the Eagles play as they did in the second half, they look more like last years team (although it's hard to judge because they were playing a weak team). I suspect they will settle somewhere in between.
What might be more telling and a bad sign for me, is just how bad the other 3 teams in the division looked. It's only one game, but all three looked horrible. I am counting on 2 losses (4-2) in the division, same as last year and that looks problematic based on week one. But, once you get into those division games, they tend to be tight as the teams know each other. We will see how it goes.
Quote: kewljYeah, the Eagles week one didn't tell much. They are 1-0, where everyone, including I thought they would be.
The first half revealed some of the issues that I suspect might be an issue this season, with Foles turning the ball over 3 times. If he plays like that throughout the season, I will win my wager. On the other hand if the Eagles play as they did in the second half, they look more like last years team (although it's hard to judge because they were playing a weak team). I suspect they will settle somewhere in between.
What might be more telling and a bad sign for me, is just how bad the other 3 tams in the division looked. It's only one game, but all three looked horrible. I am counting on 2 losses (4-2) in the division, same as last year and that looks problematic based on week one. But, once you get into those division games, they tend to be tight as the teams know each other. We will see how it goes.
This is what worried me most about your under bet kewlj..is the Eagle will probably win 5 games just within the division because the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins all look really bad.
Quote: vendman1This is what worried me most about your under bet kewlj..is the Eagle will probably win 5 games just within the division because the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins all look really bad.
Yeah like I said, you get into those division type games and they are usually pretty competitive and often strange things happen.
Quote: sodawaterEagles will go 6-0 in the division. I don't expect any of those games to be particularly close.
I'll take that bet.
You want a parlay of Eagles -7.5 in all 6 of their division games? What odds do you want?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI'll take that bet.
You want a parlay of Eagles -7.5 in all 6 of their division games? What odds do you want?
Well it would have to be astronomical odds for that. I don't EXPECT any of the games to be close, but a few probably will be.
I think more interesting is just the 6-0 in the division bet. I would take 5 to 1 on that.
Quote: sodawaterWell it would have to be astronomical odds for that. I don't EXPECT any of the games to be close, but a few probably will be.
I think more interesting is just the 6-0 in the division bet. I would take 5 to 1 on that.
I would book that for up to $100/ you win $500. Let me know, my money is good. Eagles must win all 6 NFC East games straight up. Any game ends in a tie, you lose.
Quote: sodawaterWell it would have to be astronomical odds for that. I don't EXPECT any of the games to be close, but a few probably will be.
I think more interesting is just the 6-0 in the division bet. I would take 5 to 1 on that.
If my math is right (and I'm only half way through my first coffee) that is an average (geometrical mean) money line of -287?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIf my math is right (and I'm only half way through my first coffee) that is an average (geometrical mean) money line of -287?
Yup, -287.3
Quote: BozI would book that for up to $100/ you win $500. Let me know, my money is good. Eagles must win all 6 NFC East games straight up. Any game ends in a tie, you lose.
I'll take $20 to win $100. Pay via PayPal OK?
Also to make things fair in terms of time value of money, I propose payment is due for either result on Dec. 30 2014.
Quote: sodawaterI'll take $20 to win $100. Pay via PayPal OK?
Also to make things fair in terms of time value of money, I propose payment is due for either result on Dec. 30 2014.
Did you ever make that bet? I'll make it with you if you are ok with Amazon gift cards instead of cash. They can be bought online and codes can be PMed here (that's how my last bet here was settled).
I'd expect payment to be made within a day of the bet being decided either way. Are you really worried about the time value of $20 over a few months? At current interest rates, that's less than a dime.
I've made a few bets here and never had a problem with anyone paying me. (un?)fortunately I've never lost a bet here so no one can vouch for me. Feel free to try to break my perfect record though!
You're right, though, that was a great game
Quote: sodawaterThis is a terrible bet. The NFC East is so weak this year. For you to win, the Eagles have to win 8 games or less, and that's just not happening.
Chip Kelly is the best coach in the NFL by an order of magnitude. The Eagles have a deep, talented roster and have competitive advantages in everything from nutrition to stretching.
What odds would you give me on o10.5 wins?
Have to agree as I sit here in my late-80's vintage thermal-Sweatshirt model. 9 w/o a hook, jeez. I have them 9 or 10 in a weak division. If ya got 9.5 I'd say its a fans coin-flip. Taking 8-8 or less, I'd cover that bet in a New York Minute. 9-7 or less I'd say ya have a chance. You might get lucky with a 9-7 push if thats the bet.
GL
Quote: 98ClubsHave to agree as I sit here in my late-80's vintage thermal-Sweatshirt model. 9 w/o a hook, jeez. I have them 9 or 10 in a weak division. If ya got 9.5 I'd say its a fans coin-flip. Taking 8-8 or less, I'd cover that bet in a New York Minute. 9-7 or less I'd say ya have a chance. You might get lucky with a 9-7 push if thats the bet.
GL
Too soon.
If I could get on this bet now I'd take the over. Not because of their two-game performance, but thinking that they'll start to ratchet it up early as a result. If Luck eats the ball instead of throwing the interception from the 22, easy field goal and 10 point lead that could have proved insurmountable. Too risky to always play from behind.
Quote: chickenmanIn the Eagles' first two games so far, they fell behind by a combined 37-6, then came back by a combined 58-7.
If I could get on this bet now I'd take the over. Not because of their two-game performance, but thinking that they'll start to ratchet it up early as a result. If Luck eats the ball instead of throwing the interception from the 22, easy field goal and 10 point lead that could have proved insurmountable. Too risky to always play from behind.
Ya know, I wasn't going to comment on the game. I don't want to get into dissecting each week as far as where my bet stands, but this is one that I had marked an Eagles loss. Clearly the receiver was pulled down, so he was not where he should have been and where the ball was thrown which turned into an interception. But bad calls are part of football (and life). But it did surprise me also that luck was even throwing the ball in that situation. Or throwing anything more risky than a safe screen pass. The colts generally play very conservative....actually too conservative for my liking. As you mentioned a field goal and 10 point lead with less than 5 minutes is almost insurmountable.
I needed a Colts win or the total to come in at 54 or below to win the pool so the Colts scored one too many FGs for me or two to few. Oh, well, 15 more weeks...Quote: AxelWolfI think everybody here was rooting for the Eagles to lose by 3 or win last night.
Quote: chickenmanIn the Eagles' first two games so far, they fell behind by a combined 37-6, then came back by a combined 58-7.
If I could get on this bet now I'd take the over. Not because of their two-game performance, but thinking that they'll start to ratchet it up early as a result. If Luck eats the ball instead of throwing the interception from the 22, easy field goal and 10 point lead that could have proved insurmountable. Too risky to always play from behind.
The Eagles have now outscored opponents 74 - 24 in the second half, and while that's consistent with a fast-paced offense that tires the defense as the game goes on, it seems that it is the strategy. Players have now started to complain about the practices, saying they are worn out. It didn't help them that yesterday Cousins played much better than RG III has and the Redskins scored a boatload of points.
Next up at Santa Clara, don't know what to think about that one except they have been outscored 52 - 3 in the second half this season. The Cowboys overcame a 21 point deficit so they are taking a page out of the Eagles' playbook :)
Edit to add more useless stats
I have them losing 3 or 4 after the break, when they play 3 of 4 on the road (6 of their final 10 are on the road) and they still have 2 games against Dallas who so far, looks better than I thought. But currently it looks bad for my bet barring that Foles injury. Not rooting for injury, but injury was always a part of my consideration. We'll see what the happens after the bye.