Question about in game betting

I was thinking about using in game betting as a way to set up larger middles. I'm not very familiar with in game, but I was thinking, games that get out of hand early, could offer some solid spots. So my question is are these lines typically -110?

What i was thinking was, you get team a in the NFL @-2

They start slow and are down 17-0 by the second quarter. So now I'm thinking that ingame line should have the pregame fav as a bigger fav, maybe -5, probably a lot more. Now you take + side and have a nice middle.

Does anyone know if these ingame lines are -110 like most of the pregame lines?

This seems like it could work. So I'd assume they don't offer the same pregame vig.

Quote: VegasGrinder

What i was thinking was, you get team a in the NFL @-2

They start slow and are down 17-0 by the second quarter. So now I'm thinking that ingame line should have the pregame fav as a bigger fav, maybe -5, probably a lot more. Now you take + side and have a nice middle.

Does anyone know if these ingame lines are -110 like most of the pregame lines?

This seems like it could work. So I'd assume they don't offer the same pregame vig.

All of this is already accounted for. If you're doing it from a sportsbook, the vig/spread will be very large. Typically -120 both sides.

If you're doing it on an exchange, you have to beat the market maker, who is a lot better at it than you and has a lot more money.

Also, be aware that the sportsbook operators (typically a central service) and the market makers have a lot closer to a live view of the game than you. US television has something like a 7-second delay from live built in to prevent "Janet Jackson" moments, and if you have HD service and/or a DVR, the delay could be closer to 15 seconds. These services and market makers will have views much closer to live than you, which is why you should only make bets at the start of timeouts.

Ok. So it's not -110.

But even with an extra 10c if I can get a 2 key number middle. I think I can show a profit .

Fwiw, I'm in Vegas and would be playing cantor, station and will hill apps for the ingame part.

Thanks for the advise on the delay.

I don't mind taking a side in college. But NFL is so competitive and such a flip with a few minutes left I figure I'd be better off trying to find a way to bink middles.

But it seems like everything I could possibly think of has been tried by people smarter than me.

This seems like a good idea. But by my logic people have already done this and the books adjusted or the books were smart enough to never leave themselves open in the first place by making the vig too high.

So I guess at this point I'll wait and see what the juice is when the season starts and see if the middles are big enough to justify. Because if I can get a 3 and a 7 I should be able to make money are -110 on my original and -120 on the middle bet.

Remember, a middle is only a good bet if BOTH sides are good bets.

Say you bet the Chargers before the game at +7. Then a meteor takes out Peyton Manning and the starting Broncos' offensive line on the first play. The in-game bookmaker sets the new line at Broncos +7. Yes, you could play a monster middle with Broncos +7. But that 2nd bet is not a good bet. You should take the Chargers at -7.

Middling is only good if there's value on both sides. Same with arb/hedges. If one side is so out of whack, you should press the other side, not middle/arb/hedge.

You sound like you know what your talking about (I'm pretty green) although I am a winner at this point 400 straight bets in football over 3 years. This season being my fourth.
But I don't take it super seriously. I'm only playing dimes.

But you lose me when you say I would want to take the chargers -7 when I have a +7 in my pocket.

So if youre wrong about that maybe your wrong about the rest of needing both sides to be +ev

The way I'm looking at it is like is a little like a Wong. Get up to +8 and take your shot that it's going to be a td or closer and your +ev so long as your laying 110.

Get a big enough middle with the right key numbers and let math take course. And by that I mean. Don't we know what the probability of a game landing on certain numbers are? So maybe we could even calculate our risk? Or maybe the game already in action with a lead changes that. But teams are up 12-14 all the time and it winds up close.

Quote: VegasGrinder

But you lose me when you say I would want to take the chargers -7 when I have a +7 in my pocket.

Because I made up a ridiculous scenario to prove my point. Why would you want to take the Broncos +7 if Peyton Manning and the entire offensive line were destroyed by a meteor? Obviously, that's a bad line, and the Broncos have almost no chance of covering at +7. It doesn't matter what bets you already have in your pocket, you have to evaluate all new bets on their merit.

In this case, you have Chargers +7 in your pocket. If you bet Broncos +7 (when the new line should be Broncos +28) you are almost surely going to turn your Chargers +7 win into a push by losing on the Broncos +7 attempted middle.

Sure, you have a nice 14-point middle with Broncos +7, but the Broncos are not going to cover at +7 if Manning and all 5 of their OL are out of the game. That's why it's a bad bet.

TLDR: All bets should be evaluated on their own. It doesn't matter what you already bet.

Ya, w/o manning I'd clearly stay with the original bet.

What about my Wong analogy? The fact that getting a bunch of key numbers should be +ev alone when you consider how often it falls 3-7?

This should work.

Where are the bettors at? 250 views and only one guy giving questionable advice.

It's all good anyway. I figured it out.

Quote: VegasGrinder

Where are the bettors at? 250 views and only one guy giving questionable advice.

It's all good anyway. I figured it out.

It's not a questionable advice,it's as good advice as it gets.A savvy bettor only needs to worry about getting value on all his bets,not to hedge their position just for the sake of lowering variance while taking -EV odds.Low variance,while a good thing in terms of bankroll managing and allowing for larger overall turnover should be secondary goal.
One needs to make value bets whenever opportunity arises and not think about middling,arbing,trading as a +EV methods on their own.Without value there is nothing to it.
For arbing and middling(pre KO) to be possible at least one of the positions has to be +EV odds.No need actually(it's actually a bad thing to do) to take the rest of the sides to lock on guaranteed profit unless they are +EV too.
That's about all there is to sports bets philosophy.