Horse Racing Open Thread
So here it is.
Tomorrow is the fun race - the Haskell. From the fans I've read, this seems to be the argument "Untapable is no Rachel Alexandra, so she won't win the Haskell". The first part I agree with, but that doesn't mean she doesn't win tomorrow. Again, no reason to bet on her, and all reasons to bet against her. But her performing well and winning would be great for the sport, so I'll be rooting for her.
I'll go with Tonalist in the Jim Dandy and Social Inclusion in the Haskell (But rooting for Untapable).
ALDRIN (chestnut colt, Malibu Moon—Tap Your Heels, by Unbridled) is a half-brother to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner and top sire Tapit and to two-time stakes-placed runner Overandabeauty. Both Aldrin and Tapit are by sons of A.P. Indy, with Tapit being a son of Pulpit. Aldrin’s dam won a restricted at Colonial Downs and is a half-sister to three-time Grade 1 winner Rubiano.
Owner: Mt. Brilliant Farm, Gainesway Stable & Robert LaPenta
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Sales history: $1 million Keeneland April 2-year-old
http://apps.keeneland.com/video/playvideo2yo.asp?file=55.mov
Quote: FinsRuleI'm sure we'll be getting a "2015 Kentucky Derby / Triple Crown" thread.
Here's a 2015 Derby post I made back in 2012. "12Z" refers to Cozmic One.
Quote: BuzzardI will be watching and betting the 3rd race at Saratoga, bet a few tris with this horse on top.
ALDRIN (chestnut colt, Malibu Moon—Tap Your Heels, by Unbridled) is a half-brother to Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner and top sire Tapit and to two-time stakes-placed runner Overandabeauty. Both Aldrin and Tapit are by sons of A.P. Indy, with Tapit being a son of Pulpit. Aldrin’s dam won a restricted at Colonial Downs and is a half-sister to three-time Grade 1 winner Rubiano.
Owner: Mt. Brilliant Farm, Gainesway Stable & Robert LaPenta
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Sales history: $1 million Keeneland April 2-year-old
http://apps.keeneland.com/video/playvideo2yo.asp?file=55.mov
Ok, so BUZZ likes ALDRIN. Got it.
$1 Tri - 9 / ALL / 8 = $6
oppsss sorry wrong bred of horses
carry on
http://www.meadowsgaming.com/racing
Quote: coilmanGive me MCWICKED in the 12th
oppsss sorry wrong bred of horses
carry on
http://www.meadowsgaming.com/racing
Harness and QH is welcome in this thread. No Arabians though.
Quote: coilmanGive me MCWICKED in the 12th
oppsss sorry wrong bred of horses
carry on
http://www.meadowsgaming.com/racing
Wow! What a pick! Hopefully you bet $20,000, so you could have won $4000
Quote: FinsRuleWow! What a pick! Hopefully you bet $20,000, so you could have won $4000
played the exactor for $20 ...small profit on that race and down about $40 on the day
but the day isn't over
Quote: FinsRuleHarness and QH is welcome in this thread. No Arabians though.
What about Appys? After all, it is fair season out here... (Then again, for some reason, most fairs have replaced Appaloosa races with mule races.)
Quote: ThatDonGuyWhat about Appys? After all, it is fair season out here... (Then again, for some reason, most fairs have replaced Appaloosa races with mule races.)
Mule races are great.
Quote: DrawingDeadIt isn't exactly what a lot of bettors would like to hear, but this is what I believe Christophe Clement is likely to say to Rosario about the Jim Dandy: "Good job, Joel."
Probably, but WS did look great.
Yes. The blinkers had exactly the effect they're usually intended to have, he was more aggressive, the final furlong was twelve & change, and I thought he ran a bang-up race.Quote: FinsRuleQuote: DrawingDeadIt isn't exactly what a lot of bettors would like to hear, but this is what I believe Christophe Clement is likely to say to Rosario about the Jim Dandy: "Good job, Joel."
Probably, but WS did look great.
Yes, he's turned into a very good horse, but I can't see betting him. I don't think the tote board will even offer as much as $4 on the nose by the time they load.Quote: FinsRulePalace Malice even money??? Terrible bet.
http://www.ustrotting.com/trackside/hambletonian/pdf/mxx080214.pdf
weather permitting the 5th race should produce a world record for fastest race mile ever by a standardbred sub 146.4
http://www.thebigm.com/video.aspx?id=252
I hit the Dan Patch super yesterday for $116.00. A 1-5 shot won. Easy money.
Quote: FinsRuleAnything I need to know for today?
I hit the Dan Patch super yesterday for $116.00. A 1-5 shot won. Easy money.
Won by SWEET LOU .... the horse that had the chance to go the fastest mile every by a standardbred on HAMBO day
that makes in 6 races in a row SUB 148 mile wins for SWEET LOU ..... unheard of
its funny you mention that race because on another harness racing board I put the race up and mentioned the TORONTO top driver Jody Jamieson got no respect in that same race.... looked good on him ...driving the 8 in the race
nothing really exciting today in racing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOw2lFxEhqA
The Bloodhorse write-up of the Million includes some replays of races by several the author considers key contenders:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2164514-real-solution-looking-to-defend-title-in-arlington-million?utm_source=8%2F16+Sat+NEWS+3+-+1%2FBetAmerica+2%2FDerbyWars+3%2FMcPeek&utm_campaign=8%2F16+Horse+Races+Now+News&utm_medium=email
The Irish colt Belisarius came up sick yesterday (coughing) and will be a scratch from The Secretariat (AP Race 8, #3).
Someone who works in one of the books on-Strip, who I happen to know from some common interests outside of his job, once made a crack to me that he thinks he ought to be able to hand one of those Gaming Control Board sponsored "When The Fun Stops" pamphlets for desperate degenerates who need rehab to anyone making a bet on trotters. I disagree; I think it should be mandatory for the poor b@st@rds.Quote: aceofspadesMy thoughts on harness racing:
The last race we watched, I think race 8, I put up a couple bets. I did an exacta with 6-5. Number 6 finished about a quarter track behind the pack. I don't think I could have been any more wrong.
Anyone have any good plays?
There are 288 eligible betting interests listed at fixed odds ranging up to 500:1. Unlike the Churchill Downs pari-mutual Derby futures pools that will open later, the "field" is not available as a betting option. Here are the 18 colts who are listed at something less than triple-digits, with opening/current odds to a dollar: American Pharoah (40/12), Bofeld (100/65), Calculator (100/60), Carpe Diem (100/40), Competitive Edge (60/50), Cozmic One 60/60, Daredevil (85/60), El Kabeir (65/45), First Down (100/60), Hashtag Bourbon (60/60), I Spent It (50/55), Jess's Dream (60/60), Keen Ice (150/70), Lord Nelson (85/85), Lucky Player (60/60), Savoy Stomp (75/75), Souper Colossal (100/75), Texas Red (225/85).
In my opinion, taking anything at a price below 25:1 for real money at this point is truly nutty degeneracy (not that there's anything wrong with that) and the price on American Pharoah is beyond merely garden variety insane and something I attribute to the betting action generated by Las Vegas' proximity to several tens of millions of Califidiots. If I was going to consider getting on anything in this now, I might find Carpe Diem and possibly Daredevil a bit interesting.
Quote: DrawingDeadFor about a week Wynn has had a future book line up for betting the winner of the Kentucky Derby on May 2nd of 2015. Someone will say this is insane. Well, yeah, probably at least a little nuts, though since the two year-olds have begun running stakes including some of them at two turn distances it is an insanity that's likely to generate some speculative interest.
There are 288 eligible betting interests listed at fixed odds ranging up to 500:1. Unlike the Churchill Downs pari-mutual Derby futures pools that will open later, the "field" is not available as a betting option. Here are the 18 colts who are listed at something less than triple-digits, with opening/current odds to a dollar: American Pharoah (40/12), Bofeld (100/65), Calculator (100/60), Carpe Diem (100/40), Competitive Edge (60/50), Cozmic One 60/60, Daredevil (85/60), El Kabeir (65/45), First Down (100/60), Hashtag Bourbon (60/60), I Spent It (50/55), Jess's Dream (60/60), Keen Ice (150/70), Lord Nelson (85/85), Lucky Player (60/60), Savoy Stomp (75/75), Souper Colossal (100/75), Texas Red (225/85).
In my opinion, taking anything at a price below 25:1 for real money at this point is truly nutty degeneracy (not that there's anything wrong with that) and the price on American Pharoah is beyond merely garden variety insane and something I attribute to the betting action generated by Las Vegas' proximity to several tens of millions of Califidiots. If I was going to consider getting on anything in this now, I might find Carpe Diem and possibly Daredevil a bit interesting.
What happens to a futures bet if the horse doesn't make the field? Refund, too bad for you pal, some other option?
The bet is a loser.Quote: beachbumbabsWhat happens to a futures bet if the horse doesn't make the field? Refund, too bad for you pal, some other option?
And I believe you have identified the most common mistake in betting these kinds of futures: most of the risk is not in correctly evaluating the colt's capability of winning the event, it is in making it to the starting gate for it at all. They get ill, they get injured, they have other training setbacks in their development and preparation, they can fail to qualify for the field due to simple random bad luck in an essential qualifying prep race... This relative imbalance between racing ability vs. other risks is still true when the race is only several weeks out, and of course is magnified with more time. That is why I said I wouldn't care to consider anything at a price under 25:1 seven months prior with my money. That would still be true if the betting interest was named Secretariat. It has been my experience that no matter how talented & potentially well suited to the specific task, at this point the probability of any colt making it to any track anywhere on the first Saturday in May in good order and peak fitness is significantly less than 25%.
Quote: DrawingDeadFor about a week Wynn has had a future book line up for betting the winner of the May 2nd of 2015 Kentucky Derby. Someone will say this is insane. Well, yeah, probably at least a little nuts, though since the two year-olds have begun running stakes including some of them at two turn distances it is an insanity that's likely to generate some speculative interest.
There are 288 eligible betting interests listed at fixed odds ranging up to 500:1. Unlike the Churchill Downs pari-mutual Derby futures pools that will open later, the "field" is not available as a betting option. Here are the 18 colts who are listed at something less than triple-digits, with opening/current odds to a dollar: American Pharoah (40/12), Bofeld (100/65), Calculator (100/60), Carpe Diem (100/40), Competitive Edge (60/50), Cozmic One 60/60, Daredevil (85/60), El Kabeir (65/45), First Down (100/60), Hashtag Bourbon (60/60), I Spent It (50/55), Jess's Dream (60/60), Keen Ice (150/70), Lord Nelson (85/85), Lucky Player (60/60), Savoy Stomp (75/75), Souper Colossal (100/75), Texas Red (225/85).
A couple of years ago, you could have gotten 18-1 on Cozmic One or Jess's Dream...to start the 2015 Derby. (Keep in mind that this was still before Cozmic One even had a name.)
Quote: WizardWhat is a lay bet in horse racing? I think it means that the specified horse will not show (finish in the top three) but I'm not sure.
I hadn't heard that term in horse racing before. But it appears you're correct:
http://www.ramtips.me.uk/lay-betting-guide.htm
Quote: WizardWhat is a lay bet in horse racing? I think it means that the specified horse will not show (finish in the top three) but I'm not sure.
Same as in craps - for that option NOT to occur. If you lay it in the win market you want it to NOT win. If you lay it in the place (what you call show) market you want it NOT to run in the 1st 3.
Has betfair prompted this question?
Quote: AussieSame as in craps - for that option NOT to occur. If you lay it in the win market you want it to NOT win. If you lay it in the place (what you call show) market you want it NOT to run in the 1st 3.
Has betfair prompted this question?
I, of course, know what "lay" generally means when it comes to gambling. No, it isn't Betfair but Betsoft. They have a horse racing game where the player has the choices of win, show and lay. It doesn't say what a lay bet is, but when I bet every horse on the lay, all but the horses that finished in the top three won.
Quote: FinsRuleHopefully exchange betting will come to the US soon. I'd love to find vulnerable favorites to lay on.
Betfair has markets on US racing now but I assume you wouldnt be able to legally bet with them? If I remember correctly the site didn't allow me to place bets last time I was visiting. You could get around it with a VPN though.
There doesn't appear to much liquidity in the US horse racing markets which makes it more difficult to get a worthwhile sized bet as well as resulting in market percentages being not very good. I would imagine this would change if US residents were able to bet though.
Wiz - Yep sounds like in this game it must be lay for top 3.
Along with their pari-mutual advance deposit race wagering platform in the US (with all wagers co-mingled with the host track's pools) TVG/Betfair is also the operator of the larger of the two major nationwide racing television broadcast channels. They also own a New Jersey licensed online gambling operation for other forms of gaming which I understand has a trivially small amount of business, limited to those physically in that State.
Proposals for exchange wagering have not been approved by any of the State licensing jurisdictions that have considered it, and it is not legally available within the US. Of course the same purpose as a "lay" wager is easily accomplished through proportional wagering on the other entries in the pari-mutual win, place, or show pools, or through omitting the "lay against" target(s) from a series of combinations in exacta wagers, for another example.
