Breeders' Cup 2014

Below you will find currently available future-book odds (fixed price tickets) for the most prominent potential contenders for the Breeders' Cup Classic & Distaff, listed with current odds preceding the opening line.

My intent is to update line movements and expand on the available B.C. events & perhaps some related props in this thread over the coming 4 months. And also possibly to add occasional relevant information and remarks on the chance that somebody may find some value in that from the perspective of someone that has been heavily involved in this game for a long time. (Anybody around here who remembers the old dear departed Longacres racetrack from “back in the day?”)

Odds to win Breeders' Cup Classic (Wynn @6/21/14)
(The top 16 of the 47 total betting interests with a line)

Palace Malace: 4/1 – 12/1
Will Take Charge: 4/1 – 9/2
Mucho Macho Man: 5/1 – 5/1
California Chrome: 7/1 – 20/1
Game On Dude: 8/1 – 7/1
Shared Belief: 10/1 – 20/1
Lea: 16/1 – 14/1
Moonshine Mullin: 18/1 – 18/1
Revolutionary: 18/1 – 45/1
Australia: 20/1 – 85/1
Normandy Invasion: 20/1 – 20/1
Tonalist: 20/1 – 50/1
Last Gunfighter: 25/1 – 40/1
Ron The Greek: 25/1 – 22/1
Departing: 28/1 – 28/1
Imperative: 35/1 – 35/1]

Odds to win Breeders' Cup Distaff (Wynn @6/21/14)
(The top 9 of the 27 total betting interests with a line)

Untappable: 5/2 – 5/2
Beholder: 3/1 – 4/1
Close Hatches: 6/1 – 8/1
Molly Morgan: 20/1 – 20/1
Fiftyshadesofhay: 25/1 – 20/1
On Fire Baby: 28/1 – 15/1
Iotapa: 75/1 – 30/1
My Miss Sophia: 30/1 – 18/1
Let Faith Arise: 35/1 – 40/1

In my opinion a price of 7/1 on California Chrome to win the Classic, where this decently talented middle-distance 3 year-old would be meeting his elders for the first time while trying to compete against the best fully adult dirt route thoroughbreds in training in the world, is simply ludicrous to the point of insanity. But not really a terribly surprising example of betting-market insanity, and I wouldn't be shocked if at some point the market price even dipped a bit lower. In his favor, on October 31 & November 1 the Breeders' Cup races will again be run at Santa Anita this year. And the not so good news for that particular wagering interest is that before then Santa Anita will shortly be tearing up their main (dirt) track to install a new surface, with the intent to create a more fair & even (and also softer/safer) surface after the last several years of having the most ridiculously glib, fast, hard, speed-biased track among major racing venues.

I couldn't disagree with you more. It hopefully won't be Chrome's first versus elders as he should face them in the Awesome Again as a prep.

Sure, Palace Malice and Mucho Macho Man are probably better, but this is a track Chrome loves. Not sure how them changing the track changes things.

I wouldn't make the 7/1 bet now, but if he does well in that prep race, 7/1 is a great price.

None of those prices are actually anything special...

A good spot for that colt to have a realistic chance at a Breeders' Cup win would be to enter him in the Dirt Mile. But I doubt they'll do that.

Quote: FinsRule

Not sure how them changing the track changes things.

Hmmmmkay then.

Quote: DrawingDead

A good spot for that colt to have a realistic chance at a Breeders' Cup win would be to enter him in the Dirt Mile. But I doubt they'll do that.Hmmmmkay then.

I think it's crazy to analyze a surface change before it happens. Sorry if that doesn't work for you.

By your tone it seems you don't want comments. I can just block this thread if you don't want me to comment. Doesn't bother me at all.

Quote: FinsRule

I couldn't disagree with you more. It hopefully won't be Chrome's first versus elders as he should face them in the Awesome Again as a prep.

Sure, Palace Malice and Mucho Macho Man are probably better, but this is a track Chrome loves. Not sure how them changing the track changes things.

I wouldn't make the 7/1 bet now, but if he does well in that prep race, 7/1 is a great price.

None of those prices are actually anything special...

Gee Finn, just how did Secretariat do against older horses ? DUH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh. I wasn't aware I didn't want that, thanks. And good luck.

Quote: FinsRule

By your tone it seems you don't want comments.

Racing against older horses for the first time, he was beaten by the Allen Jerkens-trained Onion, a four-year-old gelding.

In September, Secretariat returned to Belmont for the 11⁄2 mile Woodward Stakes in which he was matched against the Allen Jerkens-trained, four-year-old Prove Out. Racing on a sloppy track, Secretariat led into the straight but was overtaken by Prove Out, who pulled clear to win by 41⁄2 lengths.

No doubt some will feel they see something analogous to a Secretariat in that colt. While some others will be inclined to see a lot more of a comparison to a colt like Goldencents, in 2013 a quick California based horse with a sprint to middle-distance pedigree who performed impressively with some visually dramatic wins on the way to the 3 y/o classics last year, and as he matured has since found his best results in races at up to about 8 or 8-1/2 furlongs, with the possibility of sometimes getting 9-ish if getting a particularly favorable tactical setup. He ended up winning last year's Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile going off at 7/2, and more recently finished a good 2nd at a flat one-turn mile in the Metropolitan Handicap at 6/1 on the Belmont Stakes day undercard.

The average winning distance of the progeny of California Chrome's sire is 6.4 furlongs (as compiled to 2013) and the AWD of his damsire is 6.5f. And, this element of pedigree also tends be a strong predictive indicator of the likely development curve of thoroughbred racehorses, a strong "tell" as to precocious developing & quick early foot on the track vs. stamina & continuing development later & longer.

But one is always coping with betting ranges of probabilities here; one never holds "the nuts" in this game.

With a future book, on any wagering interest on any of the events for which they'll be offered, one should always strongly consider the very significant probability of not making it to the race for any reason whatsoever, in which case the "yes" side is a loser, not a refund. And I'm pretty sure most people betting futures don't adequately incorporate that in their decisions - though money is what moves the lines, which is not necessarily the same as a poll of individuals.

deleted duplicate

I think I'm going to make the trip out to SA this year just because South Africa will more than likely have its first representative to ever run at the BC festival. He will more than likely run in the BC Turf Mile and is currently rated as the 2nd best horse on the planet behind Just a Way (the monster who won the Dubai Duty Free this year).
Below is a link to the current rankings.

http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resources/2014Rankings/2014_06_LWBRR.asp

I wouldn't touch 7/1 about CC at this point in time but then again I'm not a huge fan of the ante post market at the best of times.

Quote: Tomspur

I think I'm going to make the trip out to SA this year just because South Africa will more than likely have its first representative to ever run at the BC festival. He will more than likely run in the BC Turf Mile and is currently rated as the 2nd best horse on the planet behind Just a Way (the monster who won the Dubai Duty Free this year).
Below is a link to the current rankings.

http://www.horseracingintfed.com/resources/2014Rankings/2014_06_LWBRR.asp

I wouldn't touch 7/1 about CC at this point in time but then again I'm not a huge fan of the ante post market at the best of times.

I'm somewhat of a turf (grass) race specialist in my normal day to day handicapping, and this is interesting. For me, in most years most of the turf events in the BC will usually come down to "which Euro" is likely to get it done, with the overall superiority of European to American stock on grass, and the widespread inability of casual twice-a-year US racegoers to make sense of them as the crowd unleashes a flood of money into the pari-mutual pools on those days. From your remarks I think I'll want to be learning more about Variety Club soon.

Been to Santa Anita in the fall before? If not, I'd really recommend that you should. Depending on conditions on a given day (tending to be best in the fall) it is often a wonderful setting for enjoying a day of racing purely for the beauty of the sport with the unique (for the US) hillside course and the nearby San Gabriel mountains in the background.

I'm not usually much about future book wagers either, but I do think the money flow & line movement can be interesting & sometimes useful even if not betting into that less liquid futures market. And, I'm pretty sure nobody but my creditors would have much interest in what I might be doing with an obscure restricted allowance race at Monmouth Park in New Jersey next week.

Quote: DrawingDead

I'm somewhat of a turf (grass) race specialist in my normal day to day handicapping, and this is interesting. For me, in most years most of the turf events in the BC will usually come down to "which Euro" is likely to get it done, with the overall superiority of European to American stock on grass, and the widespread inability of casual twice-a-year US racegoers to make sense of them as the crowd unleashes a flood of money into the pari-mutual pools on those days. From your remarks I think I'll want to be learning more about Variety Club soon.

Been to Santa Anita in the fall before? If not, I'd really recommend that you should. Depending on conditions on a given day (tending to be best in the fall) it is often a wonderful setting for enjoying a day of racing purely for the beauty of the sport with the unique (for the US) hillside course and the nearby San Gabriel mountains in the background.

I'm not usually much about future book wagers either, but I do think the money flow & line movement can be interesting & sometimes useful even if not betting into that less liquid futures market. And, I'm pretty sure nobody but my creditors would have much interest in what I might be doing with an obscure restricted allowance race at Monmouth Park in New Jersey next week.

Please do share and I would be happy to keep you up to date about VC's progress. He should go through the Paris "Win and you are in " race which should be somewhere in October maybe?

Is that you, treetopbuddy?

Quote: FinsRule

I think it's crazy to analyze a surface change before it happens. Sorry if that doesn't work for you.

Could be argued that analyzing pre race odds three months
out is crazier. Lol

Art Vandelay? The Art Vandelay? Hey, loved your work on the Guggenheim building.

Quote: Sabretom2

Art Vandelay? The Art Vandelay? Hey, loved your work on the Guggenheim building.

Assuming he's not evenbob doing a duplicate user-name and fishing for a nuking.

Quote: Sabretom2

Is that you, treetopbuddy?

Well then, that led me to look at some posts & skim a few threads under that name, and that was kinda sorta interesting. Also about 60% convinced me that it is probably not a good idea to try to have an ongoing thread here, after looking at the weird interaction on the site. But if I ever have anything at all to do with dog racing, you have my permission to call me a "treetopbuddy" with or without any other choice words.

Quote: artvandelay

Could be argued that analyzing pre race odds three months
out is crazier. Lol

You'd really love those wacky folks with the Derby Pool #1 from Churchill Downs five months or more out. That one is in the host track's pari-mutual pool, but with final odds as of the pool closing. It creates opportunities for people who use it to arbitrage. Or, for crazy people, whichever you prefer. And a ticket with a 50:1 payout for me in 2013.

Quote: Me (on another site in 2013)

A few months ago someone who works in one of the books and actually pays attention to things quietly said to me in the small hours of the morning before opening "Do you know a horse called Orb, because we're getting too much action in the futures on him." [EDIT to add: In the very early house-banked futures of a casino's book, before Churchill's Pool #1]

ADD: At that time those who were the cause of "too much action" were getting triple-digit fixed odds from the book on that horse. I was not one of them. Yet.

DD, it's nice to have a very knowledgeable
racing enthusiast in the forum. Not taking
anything away from Buzzard and TomSpur.

I agree 100% that Chrome would be better
suited for the mile. Lucky Pulpit was a sprinter.
His decent progeny are all sprinters outside of
Chrome.

The older horses will own Chrome at the classic
distances assuming he stands up to training and
gets a chance to run against his elders.

This weekend I plan to place a wager that I expect to have about an 85% probability of being a loser. Because I am confident it is a good bet. That I expect to lose. And I'm just fine 'n dandy with that.

The Classic isn't likely to be the focus of my attention when that week rolls around (turf events and possibly one of the juvenile races probably will be) but I see a solid wagering proposition in the lower profile (high odds) wagering interests for the Classic. I prefer to wait until I've got the price locked in on the ticket before identifying it specifically, but it wouldn't be hard to guess if someone was familiar with my approach to the game.

If one is really at the track or the book to get the money rather than for entertainment & drink tickets, it often isn't about the “best horse” or necessarily the most likely winner. A “most likely” or “probably best” three-to-five shot can be a horrible epic sucker bet, even if there is good reason for it to be favored and it wins by open lenghts. And a not clearly most likely wagering interest, that should not be expected to cash in the event as often as it doesn't, can be an excellent value. Or not. And niether of those is best estimated simply on what they have done; a sure road to ruin is betting their last race, and planning to fight the last war. Welcome to the world of projecting ranges of probability and value under conditions of uncertainty with living breathing changing animals.

Since my fixed-odds ticket is in-hand now: The BC Classic futures wager I mentioned above is on Tonalist, booked at 20:1 from Wynn. I may get into more of where I'm coming from and why I've done that later, but since I put up this thread here I thought I really ought to give people a fair opportunity to exercise their Constitutional and natural right to ridicule it four months hence.

Quote: DrawingDead

Since my fixed-odds ticket is in-hand now: The BC Classic futures wager I mentioned above is on Tonalist, booked at 20:1 from Wynn. I may get into more of where I'm coming from and why I've done that later, but since I put up this thread here I thought I really ought to give people a fair opportunity to exercise their Constitutional and natural right to ridicule it four months hence.

I find no problems with your selection at all. I think he is honest and will only get better as a late 3 year old.

You could do worse than take 20/1 about him

Regarding my future book ticket on Tonalist, you have identified my primary consideration in this wager:

Quote: Tomspur

...and will only get better as a late 3 year old.

I do have some history with this horse and even more so with his trainer. Because of this I want to avoid betting the colt as a fan so I can recognize and get off him at the first sign he is going off-form or topping out in his development.

I was following this horse as a Derby prospect. I liked his prospects for that race and took him in the Derby future book, with a few others. You may be aware that he was taken out of his essential prep race in the Wood Memorial and therefore out of consideration for the Derby by a minor respiratory illness. I followed his preparation more intensely when he returned to training in the weeks after the Derby, and thought he was an exceptionally good prospect for the Belmont Stakes and that the probability of the widely popular Derby winning favorite staying a mile and a half in that race was significantly overvalued. I played that opinion very hard, for larger than usual amounts of my racing bankroll that were significant to me and would have hurt if I was either wrong or unlucky, and that became a big day for me in Race #11 on June 7th at Belmont Park when my key horse got there for what I regarded as an exceptionally generous price along with the heavy favorite flattening out in the stretch to finish off the board. Cha-ching; lucky me.

Since I pay special attention to grass racing I am well acquainted with the trainer Christophe Clement. Although he is quite good at preparing his stock for a wide variety of races, he is particularly known for his success in high level graded stakes on turf. Turf races often tend to be won differently than on dirt, are more frequently run at longer distances, and both stamina and the separate ability to unleash a burst of speed on command with a late turn of foot is particularly useful in races on that surface. Patience is more rewarding in turf racing than on the main track on multiple levels, including the development of the horse as well as during the actual tactical running of the race.

The sire production index and average winning distance of the progeny of Tapit, Tonalist's sire, are 2.8 SPI and 7.3 furlongs, as of 2013 in my database. Even more appealing for this purpose, the SPI & AWD for Pleasant Colony, the sire of his dam (mom's dad) are 4.1 SPI and 8.3f. The AWD is particularly interesting to me here not as much for distance proclivity (after winning the frackin' Belmont Stakes!) but for the indication it provides for the probable shape and length of the development curve of the colt. Observation of the changes in physical appearance of the colt has tended to confirm the prediction of the development trajectory I find in those numbers.

I am after wagers that are undervalued in the wagering market and attempt to identify and avoid those that are overvalued or just fairly valued. This may or may NOT involve “the best horse.” And either of these can occur within a wide range of wagering market prices. I'm not against betting “chalk” and will do so often when I have reason to believe the favorite is not fully valued in the price of the wager. Past races under other circumstances tend to become overvalued in this market. Things that are commonly not fully valued in the wagering flow include changes in distance, progression of age and maturity, and evaluation of changes in the racing surface. The current line on most wagering interests in the future book is in fully valued or overvalued territory in my assessment, but with the line on Tonalist jumping off the sheet at me as undervalued due in large part to an estimation of probability of continued development.

Most have only about a 50% chance of making it to that specific race, Tonalist a bit less than some others because Clement will not necessarily be wedded to pointing him for it, and if he is a starter in it I estimate his chances of winning it at a bit north of 20%. At a future book fixed price of 20:1 it is necessary to cash 5% of your tickets to break-even. (50% * 20%) > 5% and I believe I am doubling my money with a ticket I expect will probably be a loser. So there you have it, and here's wishing lotsa luck to me.

Can't really fault your reasoning. The reason I like him is because of that hot Allowance he came out of at Gulfstream. I'm still waiting for Mexikoma to come back from injury as he will be a solid play wherever he starts next.

^ Yes, wasn't that interesting. An awfully salty race for a first level restricted allowance.

I'm all about finding value. I loved
Majestic Harbor in the Gold Cup at
Santa Anita but needed him at 16-1
He goes off at 14.40-1 so I couldn't
bet him. He wins by 6 plus lengths
but my algos said no. Frustrating!

Game on Dude has won nearly 6.5
million. Bafferts vet can't get anymore
out of the horse. Probably backing
him off the EPO.

Quote: artvandelay

I'm all about finding value. I loved
Majestic Harbor in the Gold Cup at
Santa Anita but needed him at 16-1
He goes off at 14.40-1 so I couldn't
bet him. He wins by 6 plus lengths
but my algos said no. Frustrating!

No offence but that makes ZERO sense to me. If you like the horse and you believe it will win then any price is value.

For me it is a simple question. Can the horse win and am I willing to bet him. If I don't think he can win I will find a longer shot to place.

This board has had innumerable discussions about value. Some of the points of view quite interesting.

Races #7 & #9 at Belmont Park today are looking potentially significant for someone wanting to get some early reads on some of the BC turf events. In fact mandatory for sorting out at least a couple of the grass divisions, in my opinion. Even if none ended up shipping to Santa Anita that weekend, you'll most likely be seeing some of them in the company lines of others in some major turf races, including some of the Europeans. Maybe especially some of the Euros. Some graded stakes end up as misleadingly weak porridge not deserving their graded status. These are not that.

Apart from that, I'm seriously excited at the day laid out in front of me by this wonderful race card. It also has the potential to have a more notable effect on my racing bankroll, positively or negatively, than all but about ten or twelve other days in the year, since the high quality of this card, plus some others I'll cherry-pick, presents me with far more seriously playable races than I get.on an average weekend. I'm not much for deciphering a field of 9 y/o geldings staggering to the wire at 5-1/2 furlongs in an $8k claiming race for non-winners since “XYZ” but more power to anyone who can predict that sort of contest consistently well – I'm not one. Today's Belmont Park races throughout the card all day long happen to be right in the wheelhouse of what I do best and enjoy most.

Race 7 with a purse of $1,250,000 for 3 y/o colts at 10 furlongs on the inner turf course is scheduled for 4:34pm eastern (1:34pm @Las Vegas); and Race 9 for $1,000,000 for 3 y/o fillies on the same inner lawn course & distance goes at 5:45pm in New York (2:45pm @ LV). I understand from NYRA they are planning to run them “on the hedge” today without extending the temp. rails (good for me) but they've been known to change those decisions remarkably close to first post before.

Good luck to any others of y'all here who may particularly like to play quality racing on the sod.

Well that was fun. Maybe not quite as completely rewarding as it could have been, but plenty fun all the same & there's no place I'd rather have "been" (virtually speaking via the simulcast video feed... and same goes for my money):



A word about the time: fuggedaboudit. Belmont displayed a supposed final time of 1:57 & change. This is ludicrous, and was a mistake later noted by the track. If accurate (which it isn't) that would shatter the record for the distance & surface, on a day the turf was still drying out from a storm, in a race for 3 year-olds. Eh, nope; several of these are quite good & getting better, but not endowed with magical superpowers.

Going into the race I had a high opinion of the Irish shipper Adelaid (the #4 horse) and I played him across the board, with my wagering somewhat weighted towards the bottom because the distribution of money in the pools offered more leverage for me there than in the win pool. Coming out of the race, I have a higher opinion of both his current ability & potential than I did going in.

Quote: Tomspur

I'm still waiting for Mexikoma to come back from injury as he will be a solid play wherever he starts next.

It turns out he has had a start since that layoff. He was favored in a first level NW1X restricted allowance race with older horses going 8.5f on May 23rd at Pimlico. He closed for 2nd missing the win by a half length to a 4y/o Medaglia d'Oro colt out of an A.P. Indy mare by Graham Motion named "Qualify" that looks like he might be a good one, and both were clear of the rest of the field by eight lengths. Since then he had a steady series of works eight days apart, and I see the owners (Team Valor) publicly said they were planning "a stakes" for his next start back, without specifying which stakes. But then, after a series of evenly spaced publicly clocked works now he isn't showing anything for over two weeks. If he shows up in the entries anywhere I'll mention it.

Mucho Macho Man, who was last year's Classic winner and very game second place Classic contender the year before, is out of the Breeders' Cup and done racing:

Mucho Macho Man Retired, to Stand at Adena

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/86204/mucho-macho-man-retired-to-stand-at-adena#ixzz37rQOIgZ1

And on a more festive note, people reading this probably already know this, but in case someone forgot: Opening weekend at Saratoga & Del Mar is now! Yippee! Real summer is now officially on.

Quote: DrawingDead

It turns out he has had a start since that layoff. He was favored in a first level NW1X restricted allowance race with older horses going 8.5f on May 23rd at Pimlico. He closed for 2nd missing the win by a half length to a 4y/o Medaglia d'Oro colt out of an A.P. Indy mare by Graham Motion named "Qualify" that looks like he might be a good one, and both were clear of the rest of the field by eight lengths. Since then he had a steady series of works eight days apart, and I see the owners (Team Valor) publicly said they were planning "a stakes" for his next start back, without specifying which stakes. But then, after a series of evenly spaced publicly clocked works now he isn't showing anything for over two weeks. If he shows up in the entries anywhere I'll mention it.

Thanks,

I was out of the country and didn't even notice that run. I'll go see if I can find a replay somewhere

Quote: Tomspur

Thanks,

I was out of the country and didn't even notice that run. I'll go see if I can find a replay somewhere

Replay [available at http://youtu.be/s4ff4HeB714?list=UUZPwm5nBXbeRLYA5QB1OZaQ if it won't play embedded here]:



Equibase result chart:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=6&BorP=P&TID=PIM&CTRY=USA&DT=05/23/2014&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB

Still no published works since 6/24.

Best named horse of the day (just the name, not the horse): SAR-9th #8: "Spot." "See Spot run..."

Quote: Tomspur

Thanks,

I was out of the country and didn't even notice that run. I'll go see if I can find a replay somewhere

Not to derail the thread, but does this mean you're finally in the US to stay?

Quote: beachbumbabs

Not to derail the thread, but does this mean you're finally in the US to stay?

Don't worry too much about that, since this railroad's engineer isn't exactly sure where it would be best for these rails to go. I wondered if I accidentally contributed a little to annoying the guy enough that he went and pawned his internet gizmos and shacked up in a grass hut somewhere, since I don't know as much about those travels as you apparently do. And there are days when a grass hut on a little Pacific island doesn't sound half bad to me.

Winner of today's 'best horse name' award is in Race 9 at Santa Rosa, #6: "Free Money"

The big race today is of course the Jim Dandy at Saratoga, and nobody who has looked at this thread will be too shocked to hear that I'm looking forward to seeing Tonalist's return in this event after his Belmont Stakes win. But apart from watching it as someone who enjoys the sport, as a betting proposition it looks tricky to me, and I'm viewing it cautiously. Of course Tonalist will be the obvious favorite in this Grade 2 going 9 furlongs, as he should be. But I don't have a good feel for just how far I expect him to get bet down. I also am having trouble mapping the likely pace scenario with any confidence. Chad Brown's colt "Cousin Stephen" breaking from the rail is widely viewed as the obvious speed, but I'm not so sure it is that simple. And it is only a field of seven, and smallish fields tend to lend themselves to peculiarly run races. I don't feel I have a firm grip on how the surface on the main track is playing this early in the meet, it may or may not rain in Saratoga today, and a wet track at "The Spa" is not necessarily the same as the sloppy sealed Belmont surface on the day he ran away with the Peter Pan. Most important to me for considering Tonalist as a betting interest here is that he is obviously running first and foremost as a prep to set him up for the bigger race in the Travers on August 23rd. Winning this is desirable, but obviouly not Clement's main goal for him. He's by far the superior horse in this race, but in my opinion it is a problematic spot to evaluate him as a bet today.

If Commanding Curve pops back into form and hits the board today, i'd really like Dallas Stewart's entire barn staff to be given a complimentary rectal exam to search for *ahem* "magic oats."

The Jim Dandy goes as Race #10 on the card, scheduled for 6:01pm Eastern, so 3:01pm Las Vegas time.

**EDIT to add: The pace plot thickens. #1 Cousin Stephen, the expected pace of the race, is a scratch.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Not to derail the thread, but does this mean you're finally in the US to stay?

Yeah, got back 2 weeks ago. Still struggling to get acclimatized back to regular life after being away for so long......

Tougher than what I thought it would be :)

Well, welcome back to the US. I'm sure it's an adjustment, especially since you're used to doing your own thing on the road.

Question #1 for evaluating any entry for a particular race isn't some abstract "better than" notion of a fixed kind of ability. The first question I always want to answer is "what is this horse doing in this race today; what is the likely goal of this, the probable purpose he's here for right now." I think two trainers are probably satisfied with this race in the Jim Dandy, considering what each was likely looking to get from it:



And I'm skeptical of how well Bayern's race in the Haskell for Baffert can be translated to other races on other days, under different circumstances such as a Breeder's Cup race with everything extra that comes along with entering in that. And if I get into details of why, I'll be bordering on something libelous, so I'll just leave it there:



Andrew Beyer gave the Jim Dandy a 98 figure, and the Haskell a 109 for the finish time. Which looks about right to me, before you take it apart for the "how" and "why" of it.

The Whitney tomorrow at Saratoga is of course a "win & you're in" for the BC Classic, and it has been one of the premier races for older handicap horses long before the Breeders' Cup was created or the year Secretariat lost the race to Onion. I probably won't be betting this race, at least not for anything that I'd consider real money.

The forecast calls for rain tonight and rain tomorrow. I don't find the Tomlinson numbers published in the Form for mud, turf, etc. all that useful, and I prefer to do my own work on that sort of thing. Here are my numbers for wet track proclivity using a weighted average of the data from the progeny of the sire (2x weight) and damsire (1x weight) for each of the Whitney entries, listed in post position order. A "5" would amount to an "A+" grade for mud, while a "2" could be considered a mediocre "C" etc. This is only about what their pedigrees indicate about their likely form in mud, whether that one factor is more likely to help their run or hurt, and nothing else, in case anyone who wants to play this race finds some interest in that.

1. Will Take Charge 3.3

2. Prayer for Relief 2.7

3. Moreno 4.7

4. Itsmyluckyday 2.3

5. Palace Malice 3.0

6. Departing 3.0

7. Romansh 4.0

8 Golden Ticket 4.3

9. Last Gunfighter 4.3

On wet tracks particular surface biases that are peculiar to the specific track such as inside-rail vs. mid-track (often related to drainage patterns), and speed vs. closing (frequently affected by advance preventive 'sealing' or by drying conditions & by raceday track groundscrew actions) affect a race as much as general wet track form, those are things that have to be determined by observation throughout the day, and they are prone to change over the course of a full day of racing.

Best named horse of the day: Saratoga 9th race, #12: "Miss Behavior"

I was glad the weather held off yesterday in upstate New York so we could learn a little something about where things stand right now in the older male handicap division, or so I thought...



...but a wire-job by Moreno on an unpressured pace tells us very little, except that you can still steal a race with a wire-job if you can get an unpressured pace, as riders have been doing every day for as about as long as there have been horses and people racing them. Beyer gave it a figure of 108 for the final time of 1:48 flat.

Yesterday the two Breeders' Cup Challenge "win and you're in" races were,

The Beverly D:



And of course the Arlington Million:



And what I took from both of them is further confirmation that in the turf distance events for older horses in the U.S. the racing stock in these divisions continues to be weak and getting weaker. For that matter, I don't think the competition in the older dirt handicap division is all that impressive right now at classic distances either. The supply of fully mature top quality U.S. based stock is thin for running anything over about 8-1/2 or 9 furlongs, IMO.

EDIT to add: Oh, by the way, of the two I thought the Beverly D for fillies and mares was the stronger race, and that The Secretariat restricted to 3 year-olds was a notch above both of them. It was a nice second date with my dear new friend from Ireland via New York:

RE: The Travers & the Pacific Classic

Travers
1. Tonalist
2. Wicked Strong
3. Mr. Speaker

Cristophe Clement made it abundantly clear that Tonalist's race in the Jim Dandy was a prep for the main goal, which is tomorrow at 5:45pm New York time in Race #12 at Saratoga. I do take Wicked Strong's improvement in his last race seriously, with the addition of blinkers. I think Shug McGaughey's entry of Mr. Speaker is a live longshot with a legitimate chance, if he handles the surface.

You'll notice who I'm leaving out. I'm not buying Bayern as a Grade 1 mile and a quarter colt, at all. Sons & daughters of Offlee Wild average winning distance is 6.6 furlongs, which by itself screams fast & short, then with some stamina help from the bottom line on the female side descended through Thunder Gulch he's wearing a big flashing neon sign that says "middle distance." He's fast, he's the obvious pace again here, and he could win by open lengths if they leave him alone for 9 panels and if Baffert can ship his "veterinary" magic into the Saratoga stakes detention barn, but he could just as easily finish dead last. I expect him to be massively overbet, I'm happy to bet against him here, and if he beats me, so be it.

If any of those run especially well tomorrow they are seriously in the picture for the Breeders' Cup. And any of my top three who don't, aren't. And if Baffert's colt Bayern doesn't fire trying to get ten furlongs, he's likely to still be thinking the B.C. Dirt Mile for him, which is probably his better game even if he should manage to get the money in this.

Regarding the weekend's "big" Breeders' Cup Challenge "win & you're in" race for older handicap horses Sunday, in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on their kitty litter surface: I don't give a shad.

There are replays for the most recent races of each of these Travers colts posted earlier in this thread HERE and HERE. The Travers will be broadcast on national network television by NBC (the main NBC and not their obscure cable sports channel).

Good luck.

Bah, and phooey. Somebody please lock riders in a room without television or internet hype for 72hrs before major events, so they don't fill their little heads with crap that gets them and their mounts in trouble.

Quote:

I'm not buying Bayern as a Grade 1 mile and a quarter colt, at all... <SNIP> ...he could just as easily finish dead last

And so he did, finishing 10th of 10 by nearly 20 lengths after leading to the stretch. And the two legitimate 10 furlong graded stakes caliber colts who were clearly best on the day finished 2nd & 3rd because their riders were too busy concerning themselves with Bayern's pace to ride their own race on their mounts. Beyer gave the final time a figure of 102, which should be considered utterly meaningless after they staggered home in well over 26 seconds for the final quarter after the pace meltdown, creating the commonplace optical illusion for many unsophisticated fans (and apparently for Tom Durkin) that the winner was flying at the finish while he was actually just slowing somewhat less after not participating in the suicide mission. Mike Watchmaker knows how to watch a race, and described it well enough: Watchmaker: Strange strategy by Travers jockeys

Out west on Sunday, Shared Belief ran a visually impressive race with a terrific speed figure of 115 from Beyer in the Pacific Classic, thankfully run for the last time ever on Del Mar's eccentric kitty litter synthetic before they rip it out and send it to a deserving landfill. As another 3 y/o, he's probably the best of the California based horses of any age at the distance, conditioned by the best of the current California trainers, and I still don't care. Graded stakes fields on the California circuit are generally about equivalent to middling allowance or optional claiming races at the biggest of the eastern tracks now.

The big Grade 1 race on the final weekend of the Saratoga meet for the older dirt male handicap division was of course the Woodward, contested at a mile and an eighth:



And I have nothing much to say about that, except so-long for now Saratoga, and hello Belmont. And goodbye to Tom Durkin on his last day ever today, for which I have this to say about that:

Here are the lines from both Wynn (first) and William Hill (second) for the top tier of future-book betting interests for the Breeders' Cup Classic. The Wynn number does not reflect any line movement that may have occured in the course of this weekend, while the Wm. Hill odds are current as of about 4pm Pacific time Sunday 8/31.

3/1 & 3/1 Shared Belief
7/2 & 7/2 Palace Malace
6/1 & 6/1 Will Take Charge
7/1 & 8/1 California Chrome
10/1 & 12/1 Game On Dude
14/1 & 12/1 Wicked Strong
15/1 & 18/1 Australia
15/1 & 15/1 Tonalist
18/1 & 15/1 Lea
20/1 & 8/1 Itsmyluckyday
20/1 & 16/1 Moonshine Mullin
20/1 & 12/1 Moreno
20/1 & 22/1 Revolutionary

Wynn has 39 other BC Classic betting interests at odds ranging up to 125/1, while the Wm. Hill book-in-a-box system is quoting prices on 28 others also up to a high of 125/1 fixed odds.

Among others I find Danza a little bit interesting at 75/1 from W.H. (60/1 at Wynn) but not enough to buy a ticket.

Palace Malice was retired today :(

Quote: Johnzimbo

Palace Malice was retired today :(

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/87209/palace-malice-injured-retired

It did seem apparent that he was seriously off form recently. How does a bone get bruised? Does that imply some exceptional exterior physical trauma to make it get that way? Or simply the result of an accumulation of the stresses regularly transmitted through the anatomy from the hooves pounding the surface when running fast and long? I try to stay as well informed on equine medical issues as a layman with all of six credit hours of undergrad biology decades ago possibly can, but bone bruise isn't one of the racehorse veterinary conditions I think I comprehend to any degree. I wonder if there might be people here with medical or veterinary training who do.

In general, I expect things like this with racehorses as part of the normal risk premium to be considered for any wager. They aren't digital creations or cards, you can never be dealt the nuts, if you gave me a 2 y/o clone of Secretariat tomorrow I wouldn't make him any better than 50% to be in the starting gate of the Derby next May, and even on raceday you never know for sure if Spectacular Bid might have stepped on a safety pin.

I think Spectacular Bid had a serious case of Ronnie Franklinitis. And has there been another walkover like the Bid in the Woodward Stakes ? Unfortunately the Bid was a flop at stud. Started at $150K, last few years was 3.5K . Ronnie was a regular on Md. circuit. Never forgave himself for such a lousy ride in the Belmont !

Ronnie was only 19 at the time. Buddy Delp put the "SHOE" on Bid for the rest of his races.