Would you hedge on a free contest

First off, what are your thoughts on 5 dimes?

5 dimes has a free sports betting contest. I am on phone so it's hard to link it or I would. Basically if you make 5 correct picks in a row you win a $100 item or you can decline the prize and take it in free play. The prizes get bigger as your streak gets longer.

I am trying to decide if it is worth hedging or not. For me any win is good especially if it is a guarantee.

So right now I am at 3 wins. I made my pick tonight so I could take the opposite side for $25. If the contest pick wins then I will have 4 right and then could hedge again for some amount to guarantee either a small cash win or a streak win.

What are your thoughts? Does anyone have experience with this contest?

here is a link
http://www.5dimes.eu/inFrame.asp?pg=bContest

Betting Streaks of 5 wins will be awarded a $100 Valued Item .
Betting Streaks of 10 wins will be awarded a $250 Valued Item.
Betting Streaks of 15 wins will be awarded a $500 Valued Item.
Betting Streaks of 25 wins will be credited $2500 Cash Reward.
Betting Contest Winner of the month will be credited a $1000 Free Play*.
Customers are entitled to exchange the Merchandise Prize for a Free Play, available to use in Sportsbook Main, for the same value as the item. So for the case of a 5 wins Betting Streak, if choosing to exchange the prize, a $100 Free Play would be added to the Sportsbook Main account of the winner.

I can not decide what I should do as far as a hedge or not to.

If I go for 2 more wins then I will win $100 in free play.
If I bet $25 tonight and my contest pick loses then I will be +~25
If I bet $25 tonight and my contest pick wins, then I will bet $50 tomorrow.
If the contest pick wins then I am -$75 on bets and +$100 in free play
If the contest pick loses then I am $+25 on bets

So by hedging when at a streak of 3 I am guaranteeing myself a win of $25
If I wait and hope that I win tonight then I could just hedge 1 game and be +50 either way

Basically I need to decide if I would be happy if the contest was pick 5 and win $25

Wait one more, and don't do a full hedge

You do realize the freeplay has a value of less then half right? So if you hedge and win the contest you are down money

Quote: strictlyAP

You do realize the freeplay has a value of less then half right? So if you hedge and win the contest you are down money

am I missing something? Why does free play on a sportsbook have a value of less than half?

I guess free play is like a free bet. You only get to keep the winnings.

Quote: rudeboyoi

I guess free play is like a free bet. You only get to keep the winnings.

That is what I thought he meant but the way I look at it is.

I would use the free bet in place of another bet that I would normally pay for.

I use 100 free and win then I am +100~
I use 100 cash and win then i am +100~

Quote: GWAE

That is what I thought he meant but the way I look at it is.

I would use the free bet in place of another bet that I would normally pay for.

I use 100 free and win then I am +100~
I use 100 cash and win then i am +100~

What if you lose?

Quote: GWAE

That is what I thought he meant but the way I look at it is.

I would use the free bet in place of another bet that I would normally pay for.

I use 100 free and win then I am +100~
I use 100 cash and win then i am +100~

So if you win 100% of the time then you are up $100.

If you win less than 100% of the time then it is worth less than $100.

Quote: rudeboyoi

What if you lose?

so if I lose, I lose my 100 free bet which actually only cost me $75 to get by hedging

if I lose my $100 cash bet then I lost $100 which cost me $100

Best way to look at it is to imagine betting on a coin flip getting true odds.

50% of the time you win $100.
50% of the time you lose $0.

50%($100)-50%($0)=$50

If you can bet it on a parlay it can be worth more. 3team parlay getting 6:1 odds (7:1 is true odds).

1/8*6*($100)-7/8*1*($0) = $75

Quote: GWAE

so if I lose, I lose my 100 free bet which actually only cost me $75 to get by hedging

if I lose my $100 cash bet then I lost $100 which cost me $100

Let's say that you are the best sports bettor in the world and you win 60% of your straight-up picks.

Let's say that you pay $7500 for 100 free bets of $100 each.

So you make your 100 bets. You hit your expected 60%, so you win 60 of them and get $6000 cash.

So you are down $1500.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Let's say that you are the best sports bettor in the world and you win 60% of your straight-up picks.

Let's say that you pay $7500 for 100 free bets of $100 each.

So you make your 100 bets. You hit your expected 60%, so you win 60 of them and get $6000 cash.

So you are down $1500.

It makes complete sense to what the both of you are saying. It just doesn't make sense in my head.

At any rate, I have decided to not hedge tonight. Other than the reasons you mentioned, I already bet the rangers straight up plus I have them in the contest. If I were to hedge I would have rangers at +1 in contest, Rangers money line at +160 that I placed this morning, and then I would have the A's at -1.5 for +130. It would be somewhat idiotic to have both sides of the game especially since the As winning by 1 and I would lose all bets.

Sometimes I try to over think things.

Quote: GWAE

It makes complete sense to what the both of you are saying. It just doesn't make sense in my head.

The reason that the free bet is not worth $100 is that you don't get your initial $100 back when you win. If you pay $75 for the right to make that bet, that $75 is gone forever, win or lose. If you make the $100 bet with cash, you get your $100 back when you win, in addition to your winnings.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Let's say that you are the best sports bettor in the world and you win 60% of your straight-up picks.

Let's say that you pay $7500 for 100 free bets of $100 each.

So you make your 100 bets. You hit your expected 60%, so you win 60 of them and get $6000 cash.

So you are down $1500.

ok so I think it just finally made it to the part of the brain that works.

So I use a $100 free bet which costs $75. I win the bet and I only get my $100 winnings but I lose my free bet that actually cost me $75 so I am only +25. If I lose the free bet I have lost $75. So half the time I am winning $25 and the other half I am losing $75.

I guess I was thinking about the fact that I would use the free bet on bets that I would normally make anyways.

Do you lose everything if you botch the 6th game, or does it just drop back to the 5th win's tier?

Quote: Venthus

Do you lose everything if you botch the 6th game, or does it just drop back to the 5th win's tier?

You get the highest prize that you have already won. Once you get the 5th you can not lose that money.

Although I just read the rules for the first time and realized that I am already disqualified. It says that you have to make a real money wager within 24 hours of your first win in a streak. I didn't have a bet during that 24 hours so this whole discussion is moot.

sigh, I hit the 5th tonight. Probably the only time I will ever have a streak and it counts for nothing. It will be awesome when I get 25 in a row and don't win $2500.

At least you didn't hedge!

How much is the real money bet you have to make?

Quote: FinsRule

At least you didn't hedge!

How much is the real money bet you have to make?

do you mean to qualify for the contest?

If so, it doesn't say. I just says you must make a real money wager within 2 hours of your first streak win.

this is the email that I received today
:-( and :-)

Greetings,

In order to receive a Betting Contest Prize, you must have Sportsbook activity within 24 hours of winning the first Betting Streak selection. "Sportsbook activity" refers to at least one real money wager being posted no more than 24 hours before or after the first winning pick of your Betting Streak. The first winning selection of every new Betting Streak has the 24 hour rule. Real money wagers can be placed in Sportsbook Main or the other sportsbok options available.
Accounts that do not fulfill the wagering requirement will be awarded a 5% of the prize amount for ONE WINNING STREAK ONLY. Future winning streaks will not be eligible for further prizes.
Your $5 Free Play has been applied to your account.
Thank you for choosing 5Dimes Group.