When to increase the bet??
Here's the question, at what point should you increase the size of your wager? Let's say that you have quintupled your original bankroll. Assume that you have a reasonable expectation of being able to keep on winning. Also, you are of the belief that all good things do not last forever. You want to roll it up.
Do you double or triple the size of your wager at this point? Also, if you continue to win, when do you increase the size again? Any thoughts?
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I think the best way to think of this is to always raise your bet a little bit after a win and always lower it a little bit after a loss. The most important part is to size your bet properly for your first bet.
Another common way is to split your bankroll up into n smaller bankrolls. Then use full kelly based on the smaller bankroll.
Quote: steeldcoDRich, got it. Excellent recommendation. Thanks! ......and DUH on my part......
I'm probably going to get crucified for this, but Kelly betting isn't practical in a casino for table games. You are constantly changing your bet causing PB interest and dealer annoyance/confusion and it's tough to calculate on the fly in a quick manner. With that said, you can try to figure out where you are with Kelly and round down for safety and ease of use.
Quote: Lemieux66I'm probably going to get crucified for this, but Kelly betting isn't practical in a casino for table games. You are constantly changing your bet causing PB interest and dealer annoyance/confusion and it's tough to calculate on the fly in a quick manner. With that said, you can try to figure out where you are with Kelly and round down for safety and ease of use.
I agree that rounding to some base unit makes sense.
When my bankroll is $200 I bet $10 per game. I increase my wager by $5 for every $100 it grows. Right now my small bankroll is at $450 so I am betting $20 a game. Hopefully in the next few days it will be $500 and I will bet $25
Quote: GWAEWhenever I am sports betting I like to do something like the following.
When my bankroll is $200 I bet $10 per game. I increase my wager by $5 for every $100 it grows. Right now my small bankroll is at $450 so I am betting $20 a game. Hopefully in the next few days it will be $500 and I will bet $25
A wise man once said, "if you never bet more than 2% of your bankroll, you will never go broke".
Quote: DRichThat way you are still increasing and decreasing based on Kelly, just in smaller increments.
Well, you are not. There is either Kelly betting, or non-Kelly betting. The first one optimizes bankroll growth, the latter one doesn't.
If you can quantify your edge and your bankroll exactly, there is no reason to not bet Kelly. Any other betting strategy underperforms.
Quote: MangoJWell, you are not. There is either Kelly betting, or non-Kelly betting. The first one optimizes bankroll growth, the latter one doesn't.
If you can quantify your edge and your bankroll exactly, there is no reason to not bet Kelly. Any other betting strategy underperforms.
You would be correct, however, DRich was just giving me an option since I didn't want to raise my wagers as high as Kelly would call for it to be.
I settled at one-half of the Kelly number.......maybe because I'm just a half-assed kind guy.....
For example, if my buy-in is $300, and I determine I have a 1% advantage, Kelly would suggest I only wager $3. That can't be right, can it? I can see playing only $3 hands if $300 was my whole bankroll though.
Quote: DeucekiesWith regards to table games, "bankroll" refers to full bankroll, not just buy-in. Is that correct?
For example, if my buy-in is $300, and I determine I have a 1% advantage, Kelly would suggest I only wager $3. That can't be right, can it? I can see playing only $3 hands if $300 was my whole bankroll though.
Kelly is good stuff for sports betting. Your bankroll seems low right now so since you really only see $10 min tables(sometimes 5) so you have a 2k or at least 1k roll right now?
Quote: Lemieux66Kelly is good stuff for sports betting. Your bankroll seems low right now so since you really only see $10 min tables(sometimes 5) so you have a 2k or at least 1k roll right now?
I pulled the $300 number out of thin air as an example. I just want to make sure Kelly is a ratio of wager-to-bankroll, not wager-to-buyin.
If your edge is 1% per bet on say an even money bet, you can get 10 opportunities per day, and each bet takes 10 days to resolve, what is the optimum bet amount ? Still 1% of your bankroll ? And if so, how do you account for unresolved bet in your bankroll ?
If you would account unresolved bets to your bankroll in full value, you have a non-zero probability of getting broke (something that Kelly betting doesn't allow, as log(0) is -infintity, and cannot occur for any finite probability).
If ou cannot ccount unresolved bets to your bankroll in full, what's the correct partial value ? Does it depend on the number of days left ?
Quote: MangoJAn interesting question regarding sport betting, as a single bet can span over several days or even weeks:
If your edge is 1% per bet on say an even money bet, you can get 10 opportunities per day, and each bet takes 10 days to resolve, what is the optimum bet amount ? Still 1% of your bankroll ? And if so, how do you account for unresolved bet in your bankroll ?
If you would account unresolved bets to your bankroll in full value, you have a non-zero probability of getting broke (something that Kelly betting doesn't allow, as log(0) is -infintity, and cannot occur for any finite probability).
If ou cannot ccount unresolved bets to your bankroll in full, what's the correct partial value ? Does it depend on the number of days left ?
Kelly is based on the fact that every time you have an opportunity to make a decision, you want to maximize E(log(bankroll)).
You can still figure out how to maximize this if you have different bets riding with different probabilities of winning. It just makes the function that you need to maximize more complex.
