NHL puck line bets

I tend to stay away from these, however I was wondering has anyone ever seen any data on the percent of time that a team that pulls their goalie gets a goal scored against them......ie percentage of empty netters compared to the oportunities

So if my team is ahead 3-2...with a minute to go and the opposing team pulls the goalie....what are the chances of the score ending 4-2,

10% 20% 30%???? non of the above?

Quote: LarryS

I tend to stay away from these, however I was wondering has anyone ever seen any data on the percent of time that a team that pulls their goalie gets a goal scored against them......ie percentage of empty netters compared to the oportunities

So if my team is ahead 3-2...with a minute to go and the opposing team pulls the goalie....what are the chances of the score ending 4-2,

10% 20% 30%???? non of the above?

Don't have the number, but that's why I don't bet puck line.

Quote: LarryS

I tend to stay away from these, however I was wondering has anyone ever seen any data on the percent of time that a team that pulls their goalie gets a goal scored against them......ie percentage of empty netters compared to the oportunities

So if my team is ahead 3-2...with a minute to go and the opposing team pulls the goalie....what are the chances of the score ending 4-2,

10% 20% 30%???? non of the above?

I believe that, when a goalie is pulled with a one goal deficit, the result is right around a 57-36-7 breakdown, so in a 3-2 game for example

57% of the time nothing happens and the game ends 3-2

36% of the time the team leading scores the empty netter and wins 4-2

7% of the time the team losing scores to tie the game 3-3

Of course there are a few other outcomes that occur probably less than 1% of the time, including the winning team gets two empty netters and wins 5-2, the losing teams scores the empty netter to tie it and then either team scores again in regulation to win, etc etc

Note: in the playoffs these numbers change, especially in games late in a series, because the goaltender is pulled much earlier.

I've always wondered, in NHL history , how often has a team trailing by two goals pulled the goalie and actually scored twice to tie it. I may have seen it occur once.

36% seems high for empty net goals. Sometimes the goalie only gets pulled with 20 seconds left and there's no time for one.

Quote: FinsRule

36% seems high for empty net goals. Sometimes the goalie only gets pulled with 20 seconds left and there's no time for one.

I watch a lot of hockey and it's extremely rare that it gets down to 20 seconds before he's pulled.

A google search will show you that several studies have been done on this topic and they all showed around 33% as the ENG rate.

If I would have guessed, I probably would have guessed between 25-30%, but I only watch the Blues.

Not sure how these stats would help though.

Quote: michael99000

I believe that, when a goalie is pulled with a one goal deficit, the result is right around a 57-36-7 breakdown, so in a 3-2 game for example

57% of the time nothing happens and the game ends 3-2

36% of the time the team leading scores the empty netter and wins 4-2

7% of the time the team losing scores to tie the game 3-3

Of course there are a few other outcomes that occur probably less than 1% of the time, including the winning team gets two empty netters and wins 5-2, the losing teams scores the empty netter to tie it and then either team scores again in regulation to win, etc etc

Note: in the playoffs these numbers change, especially in games late in a series, because the goaltender is pulled much earlier.

I've always wondered, in NHL history , how often has a team trailing by two goals pulled the goalie and actually scored twice to tie it. I may have seen it occur once.

This year I was monitoring the results of the NJ/BOST game on my phone. With 30 seconds to go Bost was up by 2. Then I see yahoo post a boston win. Later in the night I double check and see that the devils scored 2 goals in the last 30 seconds.(against a great defensive team no less).....I assume that was with an empty net.I think NJ won that game.....because I lost on that ticket.

Puck line is dangerous but betting run line on the home team in baseball is a suckers bet IMO.

Quote: Lemieux66

Puck line is dangerous but betting run line on the home team in baseball is a suckers bet IMO.

I agree...a home team up by 2 will often allow a run to score in favor of getting a sure out. They just want to win.

they will allow a base to be stolen....and just concentrate on the hitter

in my sports book there is an "alternate run line" as well....2.5

and a reverse run line.....where the faver gets 1.5

actually at this time of year winning by 2 or 3 is a better bet especially going aginst teams with a bad bullpen,, because starters are not taxed, and pulled after 5-6