CrapsGenious
• Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
March 3rd, 2014 at 8:20:41 PM permalink
hello, I've been playing craps for quite some time and one of my favourites is hedging against the firebet.

1) The firebet pays 1000 to 1 if 6 numbers are made before a 7.
If 6th number is made I get \$5000, If 7 out then I still make \$1000 from my hedge bet.
2) The firebet pays 250 to 1 if 5 numbers are made before a 7.
If 5th number is made I get \$1250, If 7 out then I still make \$500 from my hedge bet.
3) The firebet pays 25 to 1 if 4 numbers are made before a 7.
If 4th number is made I get \$125, If 7 out then I still make \$100 from my hedge bet.
4) Max bet is \$5.00 for betting the fire.

My question is:

1) Is there such a way to bet multiple teams and hedge against them at some point?
2) Is there any type of hedging strategy available in sports betting?

I'm just learning about sports betting and would really appreciate input from Wov members.
8 more years till retirement.
geoff
• Posts: 368
Joined: Feb 19, 2014
March 3rd, 2014 at 8:34:51 PM permalink
The closest to what you are describing would probably be a parlay bet. Under a parlay bet you are wagering that several events will all happen and a given an increased payout to compensate. Betting on two NFL teams to cover the spread would generally earn you 2.6 to 1 for example. If you create a larger parlay of 5 or 6 teams you could hedge against it by betting on the last game when all but one of the games had completed in your favor.
CrapsGenious
• Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
March 3rd, 2014 at 9:08:52 PM permalink
Quote: geoff

The closest to what you are describing would probably be a parlay bet. Under a parlay bet you are wagering that several events will all happen and a given an increased payout to compensate. Betting on two NFL teams to cover the spread would generally earn you 2.6 to 1 for example. If you create a larger parlay of 5 or 6 teams you could hedge against it by betting on the last game when all but one of the games had completed in your favor.

Hi geoff, I'm currently checking on this:
http://sportshedgemillionaire.com/sports-hedge-millionaire-2-0-wager-management-system/

Thanks for your input. That's kind of what I'm looking at doing. I enjoy parleys.
8 more years till retirement.
AcesAndEights
• Posts: 4300
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
March 3rd, 2014 at 9:15:34 PM permalink
There are all kinds of ways to hedge sports bets. The classic example is very similar to your fire bet example. Take the guy who had a 500-1 ticket on Auburn to win the BCSMNCG. It's super easy in that case to bet the moneyline on the other team (Florida State in this example) in order to lock in a guaranteed win. Exact math/numbers are left as an exercise to the reader :).

Here's an article on it.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
CrapsGenious
• Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
March 3rd, 2014 at 9:23:36 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

There are all kinds of ways to hedge sports bets. The classic example is very similar to your fire bet example. Take the guy who had a 500-1 ticket on Auburn to win the BCSMNCG. It's super easy in that case to bet the moneyline on the other team (Florida State in this example) in order to lock in a guaranteed win. Exact math/numbers are left as an exercise to the reader :).

Here's an article on it.

500:1, that's crazy. With those odds there is plenty of room to bet the opposite teams to win all the way up. Thanks for this info. I saved the article to my favourites.

Wow 50k if wins compared to 0 if loses. All greed aside but I would have hedged that bet for 50% and guaranteed myself a "Sure win" of 25k.

I'm also starting to think that many people out there do not understand the meaning of "Hedging a bet"
8 more years till retirement.
• Posts: 297
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
March 3rd, 2014 at 9:51:33 PM permalink
I don't think it's wise to hedge sports bets unless you think the other side is +EV (in which it really isn't a hedge) or life changing money is involved.

Hedge if you want just know that you are sacrificing EV for decreased volatility. So you will lose more/win less in the long run than you would without hedging.

There aren't too many serious sports bettors here and Wiz isn't one to hedge (I believe it is commandment 9).
Beethoven9th
• Posts: 5072
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
March 3rd, 2014 at 9:58:24 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

I'm also starting to think that many people out there do not understand the meaning of "Hedging a bet"

We understand what it means. We just think it's a dumb thing to do.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
CrapsGenious
• Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
March 3rd, 2014 at 10:00:06 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

We understand what it means. We just think it's a dumb thing to do.

But look at the guy who could have hedged that 50k ticket to win guaranteed 25k? He didn't hedge and now he's broke he got nothing but a memory.
8 more years till retirement.
CrapsGenious
• Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
March 3rd, 2014 at 10:03:30 PM permalink

I don't think it's wise to hedge sports bets unless you think the other side is +EV (in which it really isn't a hedge) or life changing money is involved.

Hedge if you want just know that you are sacrificing EV for decreased volatility. So you will lose more/win less in the long run than you would without hedging.

There aren't too many serious sports bettors here and Wiz isn't one to hedge (I believe it is commandment 9).

I understand many "gamblers" enjoy that "high" from winning the top prize, however I prefer the safe play in knowing there is an opportunity to cash in a profit from both sides of the coin.
8 more years till retirement.
CrapsGenious
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March 3rd, 2014 at 10:08:50 PM permalink
^Deleted double post.
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michael99000
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March 3rd, 2014 at 11:11:03 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

But look at the guy who could have hedged that 50k ticket to win guaranteed 25k? He didn't hedge and now he's broke he got nothing but a memory.

Because if his goal was to win 25k, than he should've bet half as much on the original bet.
CrapsGenious
• Posts: 408
Joined: Dec 24, 2013
March 3rd, 2014 at 11:50:15 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Because if his goal was to win 25k, than he should've bet half as much on the original bet.

Hedging doesn't work that way.

1) his initial wager was 100 to win 50k.
2) if he bets 50 to win 25k it would not make a difference.
3) either way he risks 100% of his bet for a chance at "All or Nothing"

Hedging is different.
Like I said in an earlier post, only a hand full of people know what hedging is, and those that don't simply miss out on opportunity.

Quote:

Typically what you are doing with a hedge is replacing a possible but not definite big win with a guaranteed smaller win.

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michael99000
• Posts: 2113
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
March 4th, 2014 at 12:07:31 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

Hedging doesn't work that way.

1) his initial wager was 100 to win 50k.
2) if he bets 50 to win 25k it would not make a difference.
3) either way he risks 100% of his bet for a chance at "All or Nothing"

Hedging is different.
Like I said in an earlier post, only a hand full of people know what hedging is, and those that don't simply miss out on opportunity.

Mathematically, hedging is an awful play, especially in sports parlays. But since you play craps, mathematically bad decisions probably don't matter much to you.
Beethoven9th
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March 4th, 2014 at 12:55:38 AM permalink
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
LOL!
Fighting BS one post at a time!
AxelWolf
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Joined: Oct 10, 2012
March 4th, 2014 at 1:58:29 AM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

We understand what it means. We just think it's a dumb thing to do.

I must disagree with you on this. I think I stated why in a different thread when someone asked Mike recently. And I don't think a life changing amount is necessary. Anything that can add enough to your bankroll and keep you in action on other better +EV situations is a good reason.

Example: You have a job but you decide to start playing the +EV parlays. You decide to take 500 only and run with it. You run into a situation where you can now hedge and snap up 4k. This would not be life changing amount since you have a JOB. However it might set you up to continue with out going broke.

A slightly broken tool may be better then no tool at all.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
FinsRule
• Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
March 4th, 2014 at 4:40:31 AM permalink
Ok, a lot of problems with this, but I'll just go over the easiest one.

The reason the guy didn't hedge was that FSU was like -500 (maybe more). If FSU was +500, then yes, the guy would have been a complete idiot to not at least give himself something for all his troubles.

And that's why you can't just hedge your way to profits. One -500 game along the way, and you have no chance.
AxelWolf
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Joined: Oct 10, 2012
March 4th, 2014 at 5:25:11 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Ok, a lot of problems with this, but I'll just go over the easiest one.

The reason the guy didn't hedge was that FSU was like -500 (maybe more). If FSU was +500, then yes, the guy would have been a complete idiot to not at least give himself something for all his troubles.

And that's why you can't just hedge your way to profits. One -500 game along the way, and you have no chance.

If this is in regards to what I was saying there are no problems with my theory only my example. No one will ever convince me that hedging your bets is always a bad idea, even if its not life changing. If it simply cuts down on fluctuation and keeps you in the game, in order to chase bigger and better things, or continue the path you are on, It's fine.

I'm not saying Hedge every time where everything you are doing changes into a negative EV situation.

I will give a VP Example. If someone were to offer you slightly less what a 1 card draw was worth on a Royal flush. Lets say the draw is worth \$500 each time you get one, and someone offers you 485 bucks for it each time you get one. I see nothing wrong with this offer. If you are trying to build a bankroll with less variance.

If you buy insurance, its the same as hedging to me, since insurance it usually -EV.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
SOOPOO
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March 4th, 2014 at 5:40:24 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

But look at the guy who could have hedged that 50k ticket to win guaranteed 25k? He didn't hedge and now he's broke he got nothing but a memory.

Florida State was such a big favorite he would have only been able to lock in a far smaller win, maybe 8 or 9 k, I don't remember the actual money line...
• Posts: 297
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
March 4th, 2014 at 6:27:08 AM permalink
Florida State was a consensus 7.5 to 8 point favorite for most of December with a money line between -270 and -300 in Vegas. Five or so days before the game there was a 3.5 to 4 point movement toward Florida State and resulting in a money line in the -500 range.
FinsRule
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Joined: Dec 23, 2009
March 4th, 2014 at 8:05:09 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If this is in regards to what I was saying there are no problems with my theory only my example. No one will ever convince me that hedging your bets is always a bad idea, even if its not life changing. If it simply cuts down on fluctuation and keeps you in the game, in order to chase bigger and better things, or continue the path you are on, It's fine.

I'm not saying Hedge every time where everything you are doing changes into a negative EV situation.

I will give a VP Example. If someone were to offer you slightly less what a 1 card draw was worth on a Royal flush. Lets say the draw is worth \$500 each time you get one, and someone offers you 485 bucks for it each time you get one. I see nothing wrong with this offer. If you are trying to build a bankroll with less variance.

If you buy insurance, its the same as hedging to me, since insurance it usually -EV.

Nope, wasn't talking about you. I've hedged before, but what I'm trying to say is, that generally it's not a good idea. Which you agree with.
AxiomOfChoice
• Posts: 5761
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
March 4th, 2014 at 10:51:11 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

If this is in regards to what I was saying there are no problems with my theory only my example. No one will ever convince me that hedging your bets is always a bad idea, even if its not life changing. If it simply cuts down on fluctuation and keeps you in the game, in order to chase bigger and better things, or continue the path you are on, It's fine.

I'm not saying Hedge every time where everything you are doing changes into a negative EV situation.

I will give a VP Example. If someone were to offer you slightly less what a 1 card draw was worth on a Royal flush. Lets say the draw is worth \$500 each time you get one, and someone offers you 485 bucks for it each time you get one. I see nothing wrong with this offer. If you are trying to build a bankroll with less variance.

If you buy insurance, its the same as hedging to me, since insurance it usually -EV.

There are absolutely times that you should be willing to pay EV for lower variance. The Kelly Criterion defines the exact lines.

Theoretically, there is always SOME price that you should be willing to pay for a variance reduction. That price is never 0 (this follows from the fact that you should never take on variance for free). However, it can be so small that it is close enough to 0 that you shouldn't worry about it (and, more importantly, it can be smaller than the price that you can actually get)