Super Bowl props 2014
Quote: LarrySwhat does kickoff returns have to do with it.
all the kickoffs that fly 5 yards out of the endzone, or to the back of the endzone would not have been fielded and gone into the endzone anyway.
Its the punting that places the balls inside the 10 yardline.
Punting hasnt changed except maybe they are getting more accurate over the years.
really, how many kickoffs would be returned well inside the 10 yard line.
Exactly. Kickoffs are meaningless for this discussion.
As I stated 20 pages ago, a well placed punt is the precursor to a safety. Once the line of scrimmage is the 1 or 2 yard line then it's do we have a defense that's likely to get a sack or stuff a RB for a loss. I'd argue in Seattle we do.
All these factors are NOT the same for every team, which is why every game is not equally likely to have a safety.. It's not a completely random event.
Quote: BuzzardAnybody see a trend here concerning " Defense Wins Championships " ? Pretty obvious NFL now rewards Offense.
Average Defensive Rank
Category
Since 1978 Since 2004 Since 2009
Playoff Teams 11.1 12.4 13.2
Super Bowl Teams 9.3 12.3 14.8
Super Bowl Champions 7.7 12.9 18.5
More info on this link but the above numbers seem pretty obvious to me.
http://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nfl/does-offense-or-defense-win-super-bowl-championships.aspx
I will say this... the last time (it was the first time, too) that the #1 Defense contested the #1 Offense was in SB 37. The outcome of that game was the #1 Defense won the game by 24 IIRC. However, Tampa Bay's D and Oakland's O pale to these two opponents.
IMHO this game can be a 3-point game at the final gun. But I think Peyton is crafty enough at the LoS to make a difference. He is that good, regardless of SB ring-count. I think THAT is what keeps the game near-even frrom a SB historical perspective. Generally, Big D gets the nod. Peyton Manning can equalize that. The punters actually give Denver the advantage due to that. /MHO
Having offered my Denver IMHO, Seattle gets props for tenacious D and excellent pass-D. And Wilson just seems good enough. I think thats all it takes even in SB 48. As pointed out earlier, and I think quite necessary, is the Seattle D's ability to confound Peyton Manning. One has to look at Denver scoring 27 or less, borderline 28. I really can't expect Seattle to score 35. But they might score 30 or 31. /MHO
I'll take Seattle and 3 or more.
Quote: michael99000Exactly. Kickoffs are meaningless for this discussion.
As I stated 20 pages ago, a well placed punt is the precursor to a safety. Once the line of scrimmage is the 1 or 2 yard line then it's do we have a defense that's likely to get a sack or stuff a RB for a loss. I'd argue in Seattle we do.
All these factors are NOT the same for every team, which is why every game is not equally likely to have a safety.. It's not a completely random event.
I agree...and also over the last 10 years it seems the crowd hos become more of a factor. There was a time where the ref would stop the clock if the crowd was too loud and the visitors couldnt communicate at the line. So if the visitors are backed up to the 2, and the offense gets off the line a split second too slow because of not being able to hear the QB......that might be enough to bust the play. Not the entire reason for the increase....but one of many
Quote: michael99000I'd argue in Seattle we do.
I'd argue in Pot Roast we do...;-)
Thanks, Mike.
Quote: mickeycrimmThis scenario happened in the 86 Super Bowl with Chicago and New England.
I just googled it and found out that I remembered it wrong. Steve Grogan was sacked for a safety at the end of the game.
But I seem to remember some kickoffs returned to 15 or 18 yard line and with the penaltly for blocking someone in the back,
then the offense had the ball inside the 10 yard line.
In 2011 the NFL moved kickoffs from a team's own 30 yard line to the 35 yard line in order to cut down on collision injuries, it has resulted in significantly more touchbacks.
Quote: 1arrowheaddrAny good numbers out in Vegas? Steve Fezzik said that Cantor opened No Safety at -600.
He's right. It moved to -800. At Caesars they have no safety at -750 and no overtime at -800, at least before I bet. I predict Sunday morning will be the best time to bet both of these, after the squares pour into Vegas for the game.
Quote: Knuckleball3What bet is the 3-pt MOV?
winning team wins by exactly 3
Quote: sodawaterwinning team wins by exactly 3
Thanks Soda!
Also, I remember in the past Wiz saying that the "any team to score 3 unanswered" was a bet that usually you could find an advantage on. Any clue on a fair number on that bet?
Thanks Wiz for all the info so far, I got some early bets down on punts u9 -115 and first score TD -150
In other news, I just added more props to my calculator. The topic of Gambling with an Edge tonight will be my prop picks.
Quote: WizardI have lots of prop sheets but they are 8.5" x 14" and my scanner is only 11" long.
In other news, I just added more props to my calculator. The topic of Gambling with an Edge tonight will be my prop picks.
Do the sportsbooks in Vegas have lower max bet limits for props than for game and over/under bets?
Most local bookies do , and I've heard from several that it's because they don't trust the lines on props to be fair.
Quote: WizardI have lots of prop sheets but they are 8.5" x 14" and my scanner is only 11" long.
In other news, I just added more props to my calculator. The topic of Gambling with an Edge tonight will be my prop picks.
Interesting. Unless I am brain dead, this calculator doesn't have a link from the Sports Betting page on the WoO website.
Bets can be placed on everything from the amount of times Peyton Manning will scream the word Omaha—the over/under is 27.5, according to Bovada—
Quote: darthvaderUnless I am brain dead, this calculator doesn't have a link from the Sports Betting page on the WoO website.
I'll probably post a link to it tomorrow afternoon. I'm being selfish and want to get my bets in before the masses see it.
Quote: BuzzardWhat a SILLY girl !
Odd, that doesn't sound like me at all :)
Quote:Bets can be placed on everything from the amount of times Peyton Manning will scream the word Omaha—the over/under is 27.5, according to Bovada—
There was a photo on the sports section (I beg your aprdon, the soccer plus the rest section) allegedly showing flight info at Denver's airport. Flights from and to Omaha were listed as "OMAHA!"
Apaprently it's a "thing" and I was curious to the lack of mention here.
Quote: WizardI'll probably post a link to it tomorrow afternoon. I'm being selfish and want to get my bets in before the masses see it.
Mike,
No one could ever call you selfish. In just your WoO site, you have given, free of charge, information that has saved and/or made anyone intelligent enough to follow it hundreds if not thousands of dollars. We, your disciples, thank you profusely for the contributions you have made to the player community.
Regards,
Darth
The guideline is....dont bet on any prop bet where one busted or freak play or great play can kill you
so....if you are betting Wilson to run under 35.5 yards.....well that can kill you on one busted play
or if pick total receiving yard percey Harvin under 49.5.....that can be killed on a single loing reception or a catch and run in the first qtr
So its wiser to pick props that cannot be lost on one play.
I mean dont go out of your way to use that as the only criteria....the bet has to also make sense.
(i) 10/11 Seattle +1.5 or Denver -1.5, and there other odds for different spreads.
(ii) Winner Seattle Evens, Denver 5/6.
(iii) The points are over/under 48.5 at 10/11 each.
Obviously the odds could change and typically these are available to reasonable but not massive amounts.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI disagree. This makes no sense at all. There is a good price on any bet. Bet when you get a good price, and don't bet when you don't.
Absolutely correct. Intelligent gambling is founded in math. In fact, I'd argue that casinos are not in the gambling business, they are in the math business. But occasionally the math can be on the player's side. When so, pound it.
Darth
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI disagree. This makes no sense at all. There is a good price on any bet. Bet when you get a good price, and don't bet when you don't.
So you are saying that if the following 2 bets are mathmatically equal...you would feel comfortable taking the one that could be wiped out on the first play of the game>
wilson running for under 35.5 yards -110
completions by peyton manning under 22.5 -110
if the above is deemed to be mathmatically equivalent bets and a good value per your research....u can flip a coin as to which one you would choose?
seems to be rather odd that someone would pick the first one all things being equal.
if they were both found to be mathmatically equivalent....then I would throw the first one out in a heartbeat.
math only takes you so far
success at gambling comes at the point where mathmatical thery meets cold hard reality and common sense
Quote: AyecarumbaI have action on "Uniform number of first player to score a touchdown". The over/under is 79.5. Discuss...
I like the over because Julius Thomas is scoring the first TD.
IF the 2 prop bets are equal and you have to pick one
DO YOU PICK THE ONE THAT CAN BR WIPED OUT ON THE FIRST PLAY OF THE GAME
geez....i would think even buzzard can understand that...without talking about horse races or fairy tales or fried chicken
stick to the subject
Either you win or you lose. If you lose, it doesn't matter how you lose. Every bet has a fair price.
This is just like all the suckers who never saw an over that they didn't like because they "always have a chance to win until the game is over".
Generally, the good ones are those where you have to sweat it the entire game. The squares like bets where they can win at any moment, like Peyton Manning to throw an interception or anybody to miss a field goal attempt. That irrational demand creates value the other way.
Quote: LarrySSo you are saying that if the following 2 bets are mathmatically equal...you would feel comfortable taking the one that could be wiped out on the first play of the game>
wilson running for under 35.5 yards -110
How is it worse losing on one play than losing on many plays stretched out over the game? At least if you bet the under and Wilson gains 40 on his first play, you know it's over. It's like ripping off a band-aid, and you get over it.
But if you bet the over, and Wilson doesn't gain anything the whole game, it's a slow torture.
Mathematically, it doesn't matter either way, but I'd rather lose on one play than over the course of a whole game as my hopes are slowly crushed.
Quote: LarrySI was given a piece of advice on prop bets years ago, and wonder if anyone dissagrees.
The guideline is....dont bet on any prop bet where one busted or freak play or great play can kill you
so....if you are betting Wilson to run under 35.5 yards.....well that can kill you on one busted play
or if pick total receiving yard percey Harvin under 49.5.....
What if you bet those players Over on their yardage total for the game and the guy gets a concussion on the first play (see: Jamaal Charles 3 weeks ago vs Colts)
Now you've lost that bet on basically one play.
I don't think you can worry about losing a bet on one play or not. If a prop offers value it offers value.
One Prop I saw that is terrible value is Peyton Manning to win MVP at -160. Why bet that when you can get Denver moneyline for the game at -140? He's not winning MVP unless Denver wins, so any money someone was gonna bet on that prop should just be bet on the DEN ML instead
And as for the jersey # of first player to score TD u/o 79.5, if anyone was planning to bet the Over... You're much better off just betting that the first TD is a passing TD. That way if the first TD is a passing TD, including pass to a running back... You win. Whereas that over 79.5 only gets you a win on a pass to a WR or TE. I'm not sure what the jersey numbers are of the primary kickoff returners, and depending on the weather we might actually see a kick get returned
Quote: sodawaterHow is it worse losing on one play than losing on many plays stretched out over the game? At least if you bet the under and Wilson gains 40 on his first play, you know it's over. It's like ripping off a band-aid, and you get over it.
But if you bet the over, and Wilson doesn't gain anything the whole game, it's a slow torture.
Mathematically, it doesn't matter either way, but I'd rather lose on one play than over the course of a whole game as my hopes are slowly crushed.
why?
because one single mistake by a person makes you lose the first bet where wilson has to stay under 36,,,a broken play, a slip, s missed tackle. One single paly out of60-70 plays.
whereas a single human error would not affect the other bet, Or a single amazing catch. There will be a few dozen other opportunities for missed passes.
There will be many opportunities for your analysis to be shown to be correct. Meanwhile in the first bet...a single mistake can lose your bet.
So put it this way......if u want to be difficult....a gun is held to your head and to the head of every family member,,,,,and you had to pick one.....even though your analysis shows them both to be equally good value.......pick the one where a single human error can lose the bet. See how brave you are..... see how cavalier you are hiding behind math.
the reality is that bets where one single play can lose the entire bet is an inferior bet.... compared to a bet of equal quality and value where you have many plays to build up to your win...where a couple of bad plays against you isnt the end of the world.....
since you are not betting on an inanimate wheel, or on a shoe of cards.....when betting prop bets in my opinion you have to avoid being killed by a single human error. You have to bet to allow deviation from your prediciton during a portion of the game and is forgiving of the deviation.
oh yeah....there is a clear way of not going through agony of losing in the last minutes.....DONT WATCH THE GAME.....OR DONT BET. then there is no "crushed hopes"
there is nothing in the math that addresses "crushed hopes"
If you want to lose fast there are plenty of bets on the coin toss, first plays is a pass/run, the length of the opening song, ...alot of nice fast potential losses that wont "crush" you at all in the last minutes of the game.
If its not about math, and all about your intolerance to being "crushed" at the end of the game...I am asking the wrong person.
Quote: michael99000What if you bet those players Over on their yardage total for the game and the guy gets a concussion on the first play (see: Jamaal Charles 3 weeks ago vs Colts)
Now you've lost that bet on basically one play.
I don't think you can worry about losing a bet on one play or not. If a prop offers value it offers value.
One Prop I saw that is terrible value is Peyton Manning to win MVP at -160. Why bet that when you can get Denver moneyline for the game at -140? He's not winning MVP unless Denver wins, so any money someone was gonna bet on that prop should just be bet on the DEN ML instead
And as for the jersey # of first player to score TD u/o 79.5, if anyone was planning to bet the Over... You're much better off just betting that the first TD is a passing TD. That way if the first TD is a passing TD, including pass to a running back... You win. Whereas that over 79.5 only gets you a win on a pass to a WR or TE. I'm not sure what the jersey numbers are of the primary kickoff returners, and depending on the weather we might actually see a kick get returned
Thats a bogus argument. Then you really cant bet anything, any game. What if manning gets a concussion on the first play... you cant bet denver to win. You are paralyzed...you cant bet anything for fear that someone on your team or the opposition will get concussions, shot in the head from a high powered rifle in the stands, or ejected for fighting.
You have to use common sense along with math. What are the chances of a human error allowing a big run....vs what are the chances of a concussion
I will go out on a limb and say missed blocks, missed assignments are much more prevalent in a game over concussions.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI'm sure that your family being held hostage would prefer you to pick the bet with the best chance of winning, rather than the one that loses over many plays instead of one play.
and if they both have the same value according to your research....if they both are great mathwise......equal....
my famly wouldnt want their lives riding on a guy who smoked refer the night before missing an assingment
Quote: LarrySand if they both have the same value according to your research....if they both are great mathwise......equal....
my famly wouldnt want their lives riding on a guy who smoked refer the night before missing an assingment
If they have the same probability of occurring, they have the same probability. It doesn't matter which one you pick.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIf they have the same probability of occurring, they have the same probability. It doesn't matter which one you pick.
I agree. Whether or not a bet can be lost on one play doesn't have any effect on whether I bet it or not.
Quote: WizardGenerally, the good ones are those where you have to sweat it the entire game.
That seems more like a recipe to ruin the game watching experience.
Quote: NareedThat seems more like a recipe to ruin the game watching experience.
I think that's the point
Quote: WizardA good bet is a good bet.
Generally, the good ones are those where you have to sweat it the entire game. The squares like bets where they can win at any moment, like Peyton Manning to throw an interception or anybody to miss a field goal attempt. That irrational demand creates value the other way.
I tend to agree
And for a game that has a couple hundred options....I go with the options to bet where a singe fluke or human error, boubnce of a ball can wipe out a bet.
because as wizard said "generally"......those are the "good ones"
so when I look at the list of prop bets, and eliminate the ones that can be lost by a bad circumstance, play, misake, bounce......and am left with a list of the rest.....
included in those props that remain are "the good ones".
Quote: LarrySso when I look at the list of prop bets, and eliminate the ones that can be lost by a bad circumstance, play, misake, bounce......and am left with a list of the rest.....
included in those props that remain are "the good ones".
I think that the Wizard's point is that you are eliminating most of the good ones by doing that.
The suckers think like you, so they bet the other side of those bets that you are eliminating. So the ones that you are eliminating end up having value.
I still think that "yes safety" at +1000 is a good bet, though. I'm extremely stubborn. And, the best part, even if it is a good bet, the most likely outcome is that I lose, so I'll never have to admit that I'm wrong. That makes it an even better bet.
