Alternate Point Spreads in the NFL
November 18th, 2013 at 7:01:18 AM
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Please have a preview of my latest page, Alternate Point Spreads in the NFL. This page has lots of tables showing the probability of winning and fair price to pay buying or selling points in the NFL.
This information might be useful at sport books where there is a sliding scale for the point spread off each game. By the way, I find the alternate prices at Pinnacle to be well set. This would also be useful to determine the value of getting extra points off of half-point parlay cards.
As always, I welcome all comments.
This information might be useful at sport books where there is a sliding scale for the point spread off each game. By the way, I find the alternate prices at Pinnacle to be well set. This would also be useful to determine the value of getting extra points off of half-point parlay cards.
As always, I welcome all comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 20th, 2013 at 6:00:38 PM
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Nobody seems very interested in this, but I also made a page for alternate totals in the NFL.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
November 23rd, 2013 at 12:27:52 AM
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I have a lot of interest in these tables Wizard. Thank you.
My book allows the buying of up to 3 points, with each half point costing 10 cents in extra juice, with the exception of buying from +3 to +3.5, +7 to +7.5, +10 to +10.5, -3 to -2.5, -7 to -6.5, and -10 to -9.5 in college and pro football which all cost an extra 20 cents in juice. I can see using your tables that there's very few instances where buying a half point is mathematically beneficial to me.
I'll never understand why the cost of a half point is the same in all sports. Moving an NFL favorite from say -2.5 to -1.5 has to be MUCH more valuable than say moving the total on an Over bet on a Lakers vs Spurs game from 207.5 to 206.5. Yet in each case my juice simply moves from -110 to -120. I don't know the statistical term for it, but the total points scored in that NBA game could land on anywhere from 170 to 240, while the variance in the NFL game result is much smaller. So every half point means much more and the point bought will "matter" way more often in the nfl game.
For baseball, they do make the extra run cost more. Ex.. I can get Yankees vs Royals over 8 @ -110, or over 7.5 @ -150
My book allows the buying of up to 3 points, with each half point costing 10 cents in extra juice, with the exception of buying from +3 to +3.5, +7 to +7.5, +10 to +10.5, -3 to -2.5, -7 to -6.5, and -10 to -9.5 in college and pro football which all cost an extra 20 cents in juice. I can see using your tables that there's very few instances where buying a half point is mathematically beneficial to me.
I'll never understand why the cost of a half point is the same in all sports. Moving an NFL favorite from say -2.5 to -1.5 has to be MUCH more valuable than say moving the total on an Over bet on a Lakers vs Spurs game from 207.5 to 206.5. Yet in each case my juice simply moves from -110 to -120. I don't know the statistical term for it, but the total points scored in that NBA game could land on anywhere from 170 to 240, while the variance in the NFL game result is much smaller. So every half point means much more and the point bought will "matter" way more often in the nfl game.
For baseball, they do make the extra run cost more. Ex.. I can get Yankees vs Royals over 8 @ -110, or over 7.5 @ -150
November 23rd, 2013 at 2:47:59 AM
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Quote: michael99000I have a lot of interest in these tables Wizard. Thank you.
You're welcome. I already had a table about the value of buying just a half point. These are more for the value of buying one or more points. Some Internet sports books allow you to buy or sell up to three points off any game. In the Super Bowl you see a lot of alternate point spreads and totals.
I'm thinking of doing such tables for college football next.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
