ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 11th, 2013 at 3:14:27 PM permalink
Was wondering if the odds posted on www.covers.com are correct for tonights game

they supposedly have Tampa Bay + 3.5 @ -110, at The LVH

and Betfair have Miami - 3.0 @ about + 115.9*

* this is the "real" betfair price after a commission of 5% (the price you see on betfair is $2.22 /or/ about + 122)

since i don't live in vegas, i was wondering if the spread and price at the LVH is correct, (+3.5, -110)?

if this is true, it seems like a no brainer to me that a partnership or something like that could be used to exploit it,

also, i don't know how often these situations occur, but if it is only once a week (or even two weeks) it still seems like a pretty good idea

lastly, i know US players can't use betfair at the moment, which is part of the reason why i am looking to form a partnership

ps i know there is not enough time for me to do it for this game, but if you already have a friend with a betfair account or something, then YOU still have enough time to do this, if the LVH post is correct
KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze
Joined: Jul 14, 2013
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November 11th, 2013 at 3:27:18 PM permalink
The current line at the LVH is Miami -2.5 -110.

The line moved from -2 to -2.5 at 12:16pm, and has not changed since.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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November 11th, 2013 at 3:31:11 PM permalink
post deleted, because of gambling tax rules, sorry for wasting your time
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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November 11th, 2013 at 3:38:06 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj


and Betfair have Miami - 3.0 @ about + 115.9*

* this is the "real" betfair price after a commission of 5% (the price you see on betfair is $2.22 /or/ about + 122)



Please spare me/us the research and advise what you mean by "commission of 5%". Thanks
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 11th, 2013 at 3:40:34 PM permalink
must be a problem on www.covers.com, there it say +3.5
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 11th, 2013 at 3:44:44 PM permalink
betfair charge a maximum of 5% on profit (per market) at the moment, so if you are getting + 122, then you are really getting +115.9 (+122 x 0.95)
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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November 11th, 2013 at 3:51:08 PM permalink
if you had plenty of cash behind you, you could possibly get around the tax, by not cashing in your ticket straight away and 'hoping' that the wins and loses would even out,

but you still have plenty of risks (see below),

1. how long many weeks/months you have to collect on your ticket

2. you could win all or most selections at the vegas casino and then have to pay the tax on them

3. plenty of other risks not mentioned

ps this is all pointless now anyway, since someone posted that the spread and odds are +2.5 -110 @ LVH
NokTang
NokTang
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November 11th, 2013 at 3:58:28 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

betfair charge a maximum of 5% on profit (per market) at the moment, so if you are getting + 122, then you are really getting +115.9 (+122 x 0.95)



What about when you bet the underdog? Thanks. Seems this is a unique way of charging a vig, charging on a win?
EdgeLooker
EdgeLooker
Joined: Jan 4, 2012
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November 11th, 2013 at 4:29:11 PM permalink
Incognito and Martin probably bet on TB tonight, lol.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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December 3rd, 2013 at 2:03:20 AM permalink
sorry, about the late reply,

so if you bet on the underdog at +3.0, you would be betting 122 to win 95, instead of betting 100 to win 115.9 @ -3.0 on the favourite, (but betfair and other betting exchanges are usually close to 100% markets, and the com is like a 'brokerage' fee you pay to the 'betfair company', if you win)

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