First game back from long road trip

Why do we bother ?

for something that can be harnessed...he has to go back to 2006-2007


what about the 4th game in a long homestand...any data on that? maybe from 2005?

how does this differ from the data of teams playing 2 games in a row on the road? Maybe that 2nd game is too stressful.

geez...chasing these imaginary repeating occurances can really be tiring

duplicate

Quote: michael99000

MEMPHIS 2006-2007

01/27/07 Portland L 132-135 (OT) Regular Season L -3.5 O 209.5
01/26/07 @ San Antonio L 96-112 Regular Season L 14 U 210.5
01/24/07 @ Utah W 132-130 (OT) Regular Season W 11.5 O 219.5
01/22/07 @ Denver L 98-115 Regular Season L 12 U 233
01/20/07 @ L.A. Clippers L 91-112 Regular Season L 6.5 U 222.5

Let me help you:

Give X games, Y hits, over Z number of seasons in NHL/NBA.

The real details, if the clever clogs want to look into it, are there to be examined in the history and they can decide if it's real or you are making it up.

Single items are pointless, much like me pointing to a craps come out roll of hard twelve on my first roll at the casino.... it's meaningless on it's own (and of course, in this instance, all the time, but that's another thing).

Quote: michael99000

I highly doubt that. With a game on the day after Christmas, they aren't going to fly home after the game on 12-23 and then have to fly back out on Christmas Day. And they don't fly on the actual day of a game. Teams on a road trip during holidays often spend the holiday on the road. And if they did, that just creates 6 flights in 8 days, which would make playing the 4th and 5th games back to back even more difficult.

Hello. It's Christmas for goodness sakes...

In addition, your example was Houston going to New Orleans. Last time I looked, they weren't that far apart but I haven't looked since Katrina so perhaps some changes? It would also matter if it were a day game or night game in our context. Flying or taking a bus from Houston to New Orleans, the day of the game, when we refer to Christmas day at home with the family, makes sense to me. Of course we don't know nor is it worth looking for.

Quote: michael99000

So the system is, bet against a team returning from a road trip of 4 or more games, but ONLY when there is no day off between the final game of TGE road trip and the first home game.

For those who care, I looked up the NBA and NHL games that fit this criteria this season, so we can track this theory on a small sample.

Two games have been played thus far and both were losers against the proposed theory.

NBA (6 games)
Dec. 28th Toronto vs NY Knicks
Jan. 8th New Orleans vs Washington
Jan. 16th Houston vs Oklahoma City
Jan. 21st Miami vs Boston
Mar. 2nd Orlando vs Philadelphia
Apr. 3rd LA Clippers vs Dallas

NHL (10 games)
Oct. 11th Florida vs Pittsburgh (ML -170) --> Result LOSS (Penguins lose 3-6)
Oct. 31st NY Rangers vs Buffalo (ML +170) --> Result LOSS (Sabres lose 0-2)
Nov. 16th Nashville vs Chicago
Nov. 30th NY Rangers vs Vancouver
Dec. 12th Philadelphia vs Montreal
Jan. 9th Philadelphia vs Montreal (and this is not a typo, same matchup and situation as Dec. 12)
Jan. 25th Montreal vs Washington
Mar. 11th Pittsburgh vs Washington
Mar. 19th Toronto vs Tampa Bay
Apr. 5th Montreal vs Detroit

Two games have been played thus far and both were losers against the proposed theory.

Can you write in plain English please?
Did the theory work??? Yes or No.

Quote: speedycrap

Two games have been played thus far and both were losers against the proposed theory.

Can you write in plain English please?
Did the theory work??? Yes or No.

It's easy to read and understand. Two played so far were both losers and the remaining games haven't been played yet.

I still think travel distance(and perhaps conditions such as weather) and days off during the road trip would matter but I seem to be alone in that thought......

Quote: NokTang

It's easy to read and understand. Two played so far were both losers and the remaining games haven't been played yet.

I still think travel distance(and perhaps conditions such as weather) and days off during the road trip would matter but I seem to be alone in that thought......

Thank you..
Please just keep everything simple.
Thanks again.o
Off to OTB now. Northfield tonight

Quote: MidwestAP

For those who care, I looked up the NBA and NHL games that fit this criteria this season, so we can track this theory on a small sample.

Two games have been played thus far and both were losers against the proposed theory.

NBA (6 games)
Dec. 28th Toronto vs NY Knicks
Jan. 8th New Orleans vs Washington
Jan. 16th Houston vs Oklahoma City
Jan. 21st Miami vs Boston
Mar. 2nd Orlando vs Philadelphia
Apr. 3rd LA Clippers vs Dallas

NHL (10 games)
Oct. 11th Florida vs Pittsburgh (ML -170) --> Result LOSS (Penguins lose 3-6)
Oct. 31st NY Rangers vs Buffalo (ML +170) --> Result LOSS (Sabres lose 0-2)
Nov. 16th Nashville vs Chicago
Nov. 30th NY Rangers vs Vancouver
Dec. 12th Philadelphia vs Montreal
Jan. 9th Philadelphia vs Montreal (and this is not a typo, same matchup and situation as Dec. 12)
Jan. 25th Montreal vs Washington
Mar. 11th Pittsburgh vs Washington
Mar. 19th Toronto vs Tampa Bay
Apr. 5th Montreal vs Detroit

The Rangers vs Buffalo game wasnt a play on October 31st. The rangers were coming off only a one game road trip. They had played 9 games on the road, then one at home, then one on the road, then the game you highlighted above.

Also, I know of at least one more NBA game that isn't listed there... Wizards home vs Detroit on 12/28/13 on no rest coming off a 4 game road trip

Quote: NokTang

Hello. It's Christmas for goodness sakes...

In addition, your example was Houston going to New Orleans. Last time I looked, they weren't that far apart but I haven't looked since Katrina so perhaps some changes? It would also matter if it were a day game or night game in our context. Flying or taking a bus from Houston to New Orleans, the day of the game, when we refer to Christmas day at home with the family, makes sense to me. Of course we don't know nor is it worth looking for.

I would hope your not suggesting the Rockets took a bus from Houston to New Orleans on the day of a game there.

Quote: michael99000

I would hope your not suggesting the Rockets took a bus from Houston to New Orleans on the day of a game there.

I'm suggesting it's possible. I just looked, apx five hours by VIP bus. We are talking about the day after Christmas. Most likely they flew, and IMHO would have flown the night of the 25th. Not as you are suggesting, having a game on the 23rd, gone directly to New Orleans and spent Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in New Orleans waiting for a game the 26th.

Quote: michael99000

The Rangers vs Buffalo game wasnt a play on October 31st. The rangers were coming off only a one game road trip. They had played 9 games on the road, then one at home, then one on the road, then the game you highlighted above.

Also, I know of at least one more NBA game that isn't listed there... Wizards home vs Detroit on 12/28/13 on no rest coming off a 4 game road trip

You are correct on both. I've modified the list below.

NBA (7 games)
Dec. 28th Toronto vs NY Knicks
Dec. 28th Washington vs Detroit
Jan. 8th New Orleans vs Washington
Jan. 16th Houston vs Oklahoma City
Jan. 21st Miami vs Boston
Mar. 2nd Orlando vs Philadelphia
Apr. 3rd LA Clippers vs Dallas

NHL (9 games)
Oct. 11th Florida vs Pittsburgh (ML -170) --> Result LOSS (Penguins lose 3-6)
Nov. 16th Nashville vs Chicago
Nov. 30th NY Rangers vs Vancouver
Dec. 12th Philadelphia vs Montreal
Jan. 9th Philadelphia vs Montreal (and this is not a typo, same matchup and situation as Dec. 12)
Jan. 25th Montreal vs Washington
Mar. 11th Pittsburgh vs Washington
Mar. 19th Toronto vs Tampa Bay
Apr. 5th Montreal vs Detroit

I've updated the results for this season, tracking the theory the OP proposed. To recap, it was proposed to bet the road team against a home team when both of the following condictions occur:

1) The home team is playing their first game back from a four game or longer road trip
2) The game being played is the day after the previous game for the home team

NBA (7 games)
Dec. 28th Toronto vs NY Knicks (ML +225) --> Result LOSS (Knicks lose 100-115)
Dec. 28th Washington vs Detroit (ML +135) --> Result LOSS (Pistons lose 82-106)
Jan. 8th New Orleans vs Washington (ML +145) --> Result WIN (Wizards win 102-96)
Jan. 16th Houston vs Oklahoma City (ML +120)
Jan. 21st Miami vs Boston
Mar. 2nd Orlando vs Philadelphia
Apr. 3rd LA Clippers vs Dallas

NHL (9 games)
Oct. 11th Florida vs Pittsburgh (ML -170) --> Result LOSS (Penguins lose 3-6)
Nov. 16th Nashville vs Chicago (ML -185) --> Result LOSS (Blackhawks lose 2-7)
Nov. 30th NY Rangers vs Vancouver (ML -115) --> Result LOSS (Canucks lose 2-5)
Dec. 12th Philadelphia vs Montreal (ML -135) --> Result LOSS (Canadians lose 1-2)
Jan. 9th Philadelphia vs Montreal (ML Even) --> Result LOSS (Canadians lose 1-3)
Jan. 25th Montreal vs Washington
Mar. 11th Pittsburgh vs Washington
Mar. 19th Toronto vs Tampa Bay
Apr. 5th Montreal vs Detroit

The limited results don't support the initial proposal, in fact they point the exact opposite. I'll update again down the road.