michael99000
michael99000
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November 2nd, 2013 at 1:46:54 AM permalink
Now that NBA and NHL seasons are in full swing I'll share a little betting trend that's made me some nice profits over the past 14 years.

Back in 1998 I was watching a Rangers vs Bruins hockey game on tv and I overheard the announcer (a former player) say that the first home game for a team following a long road trip is much more difficult to play than any actual road game is. Reason being, the players just got back home, had to travel from that last road city they played in back to their home city, get back to being settled in their houses with their family's ..wives ..kids etc., and then before they know it they have to head out to the arena at 7pm to play a game. Returning home sometimes has distractions that go along with it and the players may not be entirely focused on the game.

The key is, the game is lined by the oddsmakers as a normal run of the mill home game, with the usual home team point spread bias.

So the system is, bet against a team returning from a road trip of 4 or more games, but ONLY when there is no day off between the final game of TGE road trip and the first home game.

I've been tracking this for a long time, and game after game after game you see these home teams come out flat as can be in the first quarter or first period and fall behind quicly. I usually will bet the first half also in the nba games and that's had an even higher success rate than the full game bets
GWAE
GWAE
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November 2nd, 2013 at 5:43:30 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Now that NBA and NHL seasons are in full swing I'll share a little betting trend that's made me some nice profits over the past 14 years.

Back in 1998 I was watching a Rangers vs Bruins hockey game on tv and I overheard the announcer (a former player) say that the first home game for a team following a long road trip is much more difficult to play than any actual road game is. Reason being, the players just got back home, had to travel from that last road city they played in back to their home city, get back to being settled in their houses with their family's ..wives ..kids etc., and then before they know it they have to head out to the arena at 7pm to play a game. Returning home sometimes has distractions that go along with it and the players may not be entirely focused on the game.

The key is, the game is lined by the oddsmakers as a normal run of the mill home game, with the usual home team point spread bias.

So the system is, bet against a team returning from a road trip of 4 or more games, but ONLY when there is no day off between the final game of TGE road trip and the first home game.

I've been tracking this for a long time, and game after game after game you see these home teams come out flat as can be in the first quarter or first period and fall behind quicly. I usually will bet the first half also in the nba games and that's had an even higher success rate than the full game bets



you said you have been tracking it. Do you have data that you can post that shows how big of an advantage it is. Are you playing all teams or just the ones you know well? I assume that you are playing the spread and not moneyline?
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beachbumbabs
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November 2nd, 2013 at 7:35:41 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

you said you have been tracking it. Do you have data that you can post that shows how big of an advantage it is. Are you playing all teams or just the ones you know well? I assume that you are playing the spread and not moneyline?



In my humble and not experienced opinion, the proof can be an exercise for the student; I think he's said plenty of very useful information.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
speedycrap
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November 2nd, 2013 at 8:11:23 AM permalink
This is very useful. And I found the same outcomes from time to time.
LarryS
LarryS
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November 2nd, 2013 at 8:15:10 AM permalink
and what if the visiting team out on the road away from wives and girlfirends....goes out to strip clubs while the poor guy who was out on the road
is going through the ordeal of sleeping in his own bed
speedycrap
speedycrap
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November 2nd, 2013 at 8:39:11 AM permalink
Quote: LarryS

and what if the visiting team out on the road away from wives and girlfirends....goes out to strip clubs while the poor guy who was out on the road
is going through the ordeal of sleeping in his own bed



Larry serious discussion only. We might be on to something big. I mean big money. More than our bet. Michael99000, data please? Maybe PM me. Thanks
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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November 2nd, 2013 at 8:55:27 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

In my humble and not experienced opinion, the proof can be an exercise for the student; I think he's said plenty of very useful information.



In my personal experience, my dad had a regular road schedule from when I was 6 until graduating high school, and there were 4 of us in 4 years; he was on the road from Sunday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon, then Thursday morning through Friday night late. My mom had to do all the day-to-day kid policing/detail management, and we had a strong "Wait 'til your father gets home!" pattern of discipline. They had to negotiate a workable marriage many times as things happened and my mom had to decide alone, do some things, defer others; it's my recollection that they talked every day, but that was part of the negotiation they arrived at through trial and error.

As a married ATC, my work-frame was so intense that I had to have decompression time (usually less than an hour, but critical events could pre-occupy my mind for days) before I could even think about being rational about non-work decisions and issues. I also had to have lead-up time to get into a work-mode frame of mind, because plugging in with non-ATC issues foremost at any time leads to real disaster (documented in way too many cases; it's now routinely a point of accident/incident/error investigation). I had to make a careful negotiation about this with my spouse after several serious misunderstandings in the early years allowed us to identify the issue.

I would think sports on a professional level would have at least similar, if not even more intense hyperfocus requirements than air traffic, and involve many of the same distractions coupled with strong emotions my parents and similarly, my spouse and I faced. (Speaking of faced; Face, you might weigh in on this, since you played baseball on a pro/semi-pro level. I can't recall if you ever specified how far you went, but you've been there.)
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Face
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Face
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November 2nd, 2013 at 10:28:50 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I would think sports on a professional level would have at least similar, if not even more intense hyperfocus requirements than air traffic, and involve many of the same distractions coupled with strong emotions my parents and similarly, my spouse and I faced. (Speaking of faced; Face, you might weigh in on this, since you played baseball on a pro/semi-pro level. I can't recall if you ever specified how far you went, but you've been there.)



Sports for me have always been an escape. A big draw for me is that escapism; when I'm on the field or the ice, it's difficult to think of much else. I recall a game where I found my great grandfather has died just two hours before I was to take the field. Missing that game never crossed my mind, I couldn't wait to get out there. And I was a man possessed.

Any grief or stress or hassle of life is fuel for the field. There was nothing worse for the opposing team than for me to have a fight with the wife before I left, or even better, on the way to the game. On my own, I'm already pretty intense. Get me fired up, and I'm a monster. Granted, that doesn't always mean I'm "better", as I'm more likely to take penalties or go for the big hit as opposed to making the smart play, but I'm sure not out there distracted in a fog. I think that's pretty common, just look at Favre after his father died.

Having said that, travel is much different. There are occasions where I've had to travel up to 20 hours to get to the next game, and it certainly has an effect. Getting angry at the commute is a different process than being angry at the spouse. One fills me with energy, one drains it. You don't have your favorite foods and drinks at your fingertips, you don't have your favorite relaxin' chair, you don't have your own bed and linens... all the things that you have to conserve and replenish energy are gone. You're mentally scrambled from navigation and the hassles of the road. Even on trips that have been a blast, even when I arrive fired up and excited about the game, there's a definite and noticeable change in mental state.

But that's me. Having been around so many athletes, every one of them has their own hangups. I knew one guy that needed a green 32oz Gatorade and two pieces of spearmint gum from a fresh pack every time he started. Can't find green in a 32oz and he damn near had a meltdown. Still others need things just so. Get all the way to the point of tying his skates and mess up the knot, and he had to completely disrobe and start over again. And he was a goalie, where getting dressed is a 20 minute process.

Athletes are weird. Every bit as much as the craps players who can't hear "7" uttered or "lose their concentration" if there's a buy in the middle of the roll. Personally, all the side show stuff never bothered me. But I know enough of them to say that yeah, there's probably something to the OP.
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LarryS
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November 2nd, 2013 at 3:46:42 PM permalink
professional athleletes in the major sports dont know what real life pressure is. If they win the game or dont win the game they are still millionaires with the perfect family, summer homes, nannies. After the season they go off to europe, the islands, etc whle the fans call sports talk radio and agonize over every bad break of the season.
Playing a game that pays millions whether you win or lose has no pressure compared to the every day joe blow working to supports a family with 2 jobs, while the wife works also.

players on the road living a party life and visiting strip clubs or having a private party is not out of the ordinary. SO I am not kidding, id anyone thinks there is stress on the body when a fellow gets home and sleeps in his own bed, rather than the road team sleeping in a hotel with the distractions of the road..i dont see the advantage one way or the other.

If you are looking at teams playing 2 days in a row, or 3 out of 4 nites..Ican see the fatigue factor from playing and betting accordingly. But to make up some story about a players great stress of coming home..that is just some psycho-babble that is more for psychiatrists than for the general betting public.

I tend to bet againsT some hockey teams this point in the season that play 2 nights in a row...due to the fatigue factor. I dont care if they are coming home or going on the road.

the professional athelete flys in the comfort ofprivate jets, has their luggage delivered to the hotel. gets driven to and from the airpoort...they dont lift a finger. Its not like you and me traveling and going thru the hassel of carrying lugage from the parling garage to the terminal, waiting in long lines at the airport, waiting in long lines to claim luggage, rending a car,...its all very easy to "travel" for the professiona athelete. They are not cramped on the plane, better food than we are used to on the planes. They stay in very nice hotels with the best accomodations. Puleese...dont tell me how tough it is for the professional athelete and comare their plight to the average working Joe living from paycheck to paycheck out on the road till the exhaused guy gets home from being overworked on top of the stress of travel.

Maybe when the aktheletes gethome they are energized by seeing his family. Who the heck knows. Once you start to think you can psycho-analyze atheletes, you are in trouble
Buzzard
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November 2nd, 2013 at 3:52:48 PM permalink
" The key is, the game is lined by the oddsmakers as a normal run of the mill home game, with the usual home team point spread bias. "

Not true, never was true. Even back in the 50's, when teams traveled by train to East Coast games, previous road games, long home stand, etc were often factored in. Yeah, you can high big wins with such a systems and big losses too.
All too often gamblers have selective memories. And then they were so unlucky to lose on a freak play, but it was the right thing when that freak play made them winners.

" So the system is, bet against a team returning from a road trip of 4 or more games, but ONLY when there is no day off between the final game of TGE road trip and the first home game."

And the results were ? ? ? ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

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