First game back from long road trip
Back in 1998 I was watching a Rangers vs Bruins hockey game on tv and I overheard the announcer (a former player) say that the first home game for a team following a long road trip is much more difficult to play than any actual road game is. Reason being, the players just got back home, had to travel from that last road city they played in back to their home city, get back to being settled in their houses with their family's ..wives ..kids etc., and then before they know it they have to head out to the arena at 7pm to play a game. Returning home sometimes has distractions that go along with it and the players may not be entirely focused on the game.
The key is, the game is lined by the oddsmakers as a normal run of the mill home game, with the usual home team point spread bias.
So the system is, bet against a team returning from a road trip of 4 or more games, but ONLY when there is no day off between the final game of TGE road trip and the first home game.
I've been tracking this for a long time, and game after game after game you see these home teams come out flat as can be in the first quarter or first period and fall behind quicly. I usually will bet the first half also in the nba games and that's had an even higher success rate than the full game bets
Quote: michael99000Now that NBA and NHL seasons are in full swing I'll share a little betting trend that's made me some nice profits over the past 14 years.
Back in 1998 I was watching a Rangers vs Bruins hockey game on tv and I overheard the announcer (a former player) say that the first home game for a team following a long road trip is much more difficult to play than any actual road game is. Reason being, the players just got back home, had to travel from that last road city they played in back to their home city, get back to being settled in their houses with their family's ..wives ..kids etc., and then before they know it they have to head out to the arena at 7pm to play a game. Returning home sometimes has distractions that go along with it and the players may not be entirely focused on the game.
The key is, the game is lined by the oddsmakers as a normal run of the mill home game, with the usual home team point spread bias.
So the system is, bet against a team returning from a road trip of 4 or more games, but ONLY when there is no day off between the final game of TGE road trip and the first home game.
I've been tracking this for a long time, and game after game after game you see these home teams come out flat as can be in the first quarter or first period and fall behind quicly. I usually will bet the first half also in the nba games and that's had an even higher success rate than the full game bets
you said you have been tracking it. Do you have data that you can post that shows how big of an advantage it is. Are you playing all teams or just the ones you know well? I assume that you are playing the spread and not moneyline?
Quote: GWAEyou said you have been tracking it. Do you have data that you can post that shows how big of an advantage it is. Are you playing all teams or just the ones you know well? I assume that you are playing the spread and not moneyline?
In my humble and not experienced opinion, the proof can be an exercise for the student; I think he's said plenty of very useful information.
is going through the ordeal of sleeping in his own bed
Quote: LarrySand what if the visiting team out on the road away from wives and girlfirends....goes out to strip clubs while the poor guy who was out on the road
is going through the ordeal of sleeping in his own bed
Larry serious discussion only. We might be on to something big. I mean big money. More than our bet. Michael99000, data please? Maybe PM me. Thanks
Quote: beachbumbabsIn my humble and not experienced opinion, the proof can be an exercise for the student; I think he's said plenty of very useful information.
In my personal experience, my dad had a regular road schedule from when I was 6 until graduating high school, and there were 4 of us in 4 years; he was on the road from Sunday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon, then Thursday morning through Friday night late. My mom had to do all the day-to-day kid policing/detail management, and we had a strong "Wait 'til your father gets home!" pattern of discipline. They had to negotiate a workable marriage many times as things happened and my mom had to decide alone, do some things, defer others; it's my recollection that they talked every day, but that was part of the negotiation they arrived at through trial and error.
As a married ATC, my work-frame was so intense that I had to have decompression time (usually less than an hour, but critical events could pre-occupy my mind for days) before I could even think about being rational about non-work decisions and issues. I also had to have lead-up time to get into a work-mode frame of mind, because plugging in with non-ATC issues foremost at any time leads to real disaster (documented in way too many cases; it's now routinely a point of accident/incident/error investigation). I had to make a careful negotiation about this with my spouse after several serious misunderstandings in the early years allowed us to identify the issue.
I would think sports on a professional level would have at least similar, if not even more intense hyperfocus requirements than air traffic, and involve many of the same distractions coupled with strong emotions my parents and similarly, my spouse and I faced. (Speaking of faced; Face, you might weigh in on this, since you played baseball on a pro/semi-pro level. I can't recall if you ever specified how far you went, but you've been there.)
Quote: beachbumbabsI would think sports on a professional level would have at least similar, if not even more intense hyperfocus requirements than air traffic, and involve many of the same distractions coupled with strong emotions my parents and similarly, my spouse and I faced. (Speaking of faced; Face, you might weigh in on this, since you played baseball on a pro/semi-pro level. I can't recall if you ever specified how far you went, but you've been there.)
Sports for me have always been an escape. A big draw for me is that escapism; when I'm on the field or the ice, it's difficult to think of much else. I recall a game where I found my great grandfather has died just two hours before I was to take the field. Missing that game never crossed my mind, I couldn't wait to get out there. And I was a man possessed.
Any grief or stress or hassle of life is fuel for the field. There was nothing worse for the opposing team than for me to have a fight with the wife before I left, or even better, on the way to the game. On my own, I'm already pretty intense. Get me fired up, and I'm a monster. Granted, that doesn't always mean I'm "better", as I'm more likely to take penalties or go for the big hit as opposed to making the smart play, but I'm sure not out there distracted in a fog. I think that's pretty common, just look at Favre after his father died.
Having said that, travel is much different. There are occasions where I've had to travel up to 20 hours to get to the next game, and it certainly has an effect. Getting angry at the commute is a different process than being angry at the spouse. One fills me with energy, one drains it. You don't have your favorite foods and drinks at your fingertips, you don't have your favorite relaxin' chair, you don't have your own bed and linens... all the things that you have to conserve and replenish energy are gone. You're mentally scrambled from navigation and the hassles of the road. Even on trips that have been a blast, even when I arrive fired up and excited about the game, there's a definite and noticeable change in mental state.
But that's me. Having been around so many athletes, every one of them has their own hangups. I knew one guy that needed a green 32oz Gatorade and two pieces of spearmint gum from a fresh pack every time he started. Can't find green in a 32oz and he damn near had a meltdown. Still others need things just so. Get all the way to the point of tying his skates and mess up the knot, and he had to completely disrobe and start over again. And he was a goalie, where getting dressed is a 20 minute process.
Athletes are weird. Every bit as much as the craps players who can't hear "7" uttered or "lose their concentration" if there's a buy in the middle of the roll. Personally, all the side show stuff never bothered me. But I know enough of them to say that yeah, there's probably something to the OP.
Playing a game that pays millions whether you win or lose has no pressure compared to the every day joe blow working to supports a family with 2 jobs, while the wife works also.
players on the road living a party life and visiting strip clubs or having a private party is not out of the ordinary. SO I am not kidding, id anyone thinks there is stress on the body when a fellow gets home and sleeps in his own bed, rather than the road team sleeping in a hotel with the distractions of the road..i dont see the advantage one way or the other.
If you are looking at teams playing 2 days in a row, or 3 out of 4 nites..Ican see the fatigue factor from playing and betting accordingly. But to make up some story about a players great stress of coming home..that is just some psycho-babble that is more for psychiatrists than for the general betting public.
I tend to bet againsT some hockey teams this point in the season that play 2 nights in a row...due to the fatigue factor. I dont care if they are coming home or going on the road.
the professional athelete flys in the comfort ofprivate jets, has their luggage delivered to the hotel. gets driven to and from the airpoort...they dont lift a finger. Its not like you and me traveling and going thru the hassel of carrying lugage from the parling garage to the terminal, waiting in long lines at the airport, waiting in long lines to claim luggage, rending a car,...its all very easy to "travel" for the professiona athelete. They are not cramped on the plane, better food than we are used to on the planes. They stay in very nice hotels with the best accomodations. Puleese...dont tell me how tough it is for the professional athelete and comare their plight to the average working Joe living from paycheck to paycheck out on the road till the exhaused guy gets home from being overworked on top of the stress of travel.
Maybe when the aktheletes gethome they are energized by seeing his family. Who the heck knows. Once you start to think you can psycho-analyze atheletes, you are in trouble
Not true, never was true. Even back in the 50's, when teams traveled by train to East Coast games, previous road games, long home stand, etc were often factored in. Yeah, you can high big wins with such a systems and big losses too.
All too often gamblers have selective memories. And then they were so unlucky to lose on a freak play, but it was the right thing when that freak play made them winners.
" So the system is, bet against a team returning from a road trip of 4 or more games, but ONLY when there is no day off between the final game of TGE road trip and the first home game."
And the results were ? ? ? ?
show some proof that the man dosent take back to back games into account
how do we know that the man issues the same exact line no matter what.
we dont
its just a declaration by someone
But do I think there are some systems that can be profitable. Sure do. But when you start talking about numerous plays every weekend.
Forget about it ! And if you are into parleys, there is no hope for you at all.
Never understood why with so many games, so many days to bet, a person is compelled to give the bookie a bigger edge. Instead of doing your own parlays on different days , if parlay you must.
But I'll go ahead and provide a perfect example proving them wrong.
During the 2012-2013 season the Spurs had a 9 game road trip in February. The final game on the trip was @ Phoenix and the line was Spurs -9.
The first home game after returning was against...Phoenix. And the line was Spurs -16.5 , so yea, I'd say the linesmakers ever so slightly adjusted that line to account for the spurs being home.
Oh and by the way, as for the system itself in that example, the play was to bet Phoenix +16.5.
Final score Spurs 105 Suns 101 in overtime
Quote: michael99000Anyone who thinks the lines on those games first home games after a trip, are not set like a normal home game is saying it without doing any actual fact finding. Perhaps just for the sake of disagreeing.
But I'll go ahead and provide a perfect example proving them wrong.
During the 2012-2013 season the Spurs had a 9 game road trip in February. The final game on the trip was @ Phoenix and the line was Spurs -9.
The first home game after returning was against...Phoenix. And the line was Spurs -16.5 , so yea, I'd say the linesmakers ever so slightly adjusted that line to account for the spurs being home.
Oh and by the way, as for the system itself in that example, the play was to bet Phoenix +16.5.
Final score Spurs 105 Suns 101 in overtime
How long have you been betting these and what is your record?
recounting a single game in a single season is amusing
how about a recap of the last 3 years.
"the road" isnt a big issue (other than football)
its not like the old days in baseball where people traveled by train, and carried their own bags, and ate rotten food
the atheletes are pampered with private jets and other people handling evey detail
I will take into account back to back playing days, or 3 out of 4 days ...but where those games take place as far as coming back from travel doesnt interest me
unless of course there is some real documented evidence
so far just anecdotal stories
But what is this I ask ?
58 Feb 24, 2013 Spurs @ Phoenix Suns W 97 - 87 won 1 45 - 13
59 Feb 27, 2013 Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns L 101 - 105 OT
Seems like 2 days off and THE SYSTEM is for no days off. MY MY
And since the Spurs had beat Phoenix by 10 at Phoenix, and that was at the end of a 9 game road trip, well, after 2 days rest and at home, -16.5 does not seem unreasnable line to me.
And the success rates are ? ?
Hopefully more accurate than your example !
But I'll go ahead and provide a perfect example proving them wrong.
Quote: LarrySthere are hundreds of opportunities each year to bet this so called fact that the man doesnt take into account.
recounting a single game in a single season is amusing
/q]
No there's not even close to 100, let alone hundredS.There's about 25-30 at most. Usually more like 15-20.
Once again Larry saying something just to say it, without having done a minute of checking LOL
next time check your facts
Quote: BuzzardI concede. 1 game proves the system for sure.
But what is this I ask ?
58 Feb 24, 2013 Spurs @ Phoenix Suns W 97 - 87 won 1 45 - 13
59 Feb 27, 2013 Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns L 101 - 105 OT
Seems like 2 days off and THE SYSTEM is for no days off. MY MY
And since the Spurs had beat Phoenix by 10 at Phoenix, and that was at the end of a 9 game road trip, well, after 2 days rest and at home, -16.5 does not seem unreasnable line to me.
You just pointed out that the fact the second game was at home was a factor in the spread being 16.5 as opposed to 9.5, which is the point I was making to begin with. Larry
claimed that the oddsmakers know enough to treat that first home game like its a road game and make the spread accordingly. In that case it would've been much closer to the 9 they were giving in Phoenix
Quote: michael99000You just pointed out that the fact the second game was at home was a factor in the spread being 16.5 as opposed to 9.5, which is the point I was making to begin with. Larry
claimed that the oddsmakers know enough to treat that first home game like its a road game and make the spread accordingly. In that case it would've been much closer to the 9 they were giving in Phoenix
They had two days off after the road trips. This game has nothing to do with your system. Do they need a week off to have a home court advantage ?
You talk about Larry's information. Where the hell is yours? If it's only 15 to 25 games last season, why not provide those games and the results ? ? ?
Then you might get some respect. Now you are just posting assumptions and guesses.
Quote: BuzzardThey had two days off after the road trips. This game has nothing to do with your system. Do they need a week off to have a home court advantage ?
You talk about Larry's information. Where the hell is yours? If it's only 15 to 25 games last season, why not provide those games and the results ? ? ?
Then you might get some respect. Now you are just posting assumptions and guesses.
Still waiting for data.
It is a GOOD THEORY until proven. thanks everybody.
Your proposed betting method is what makes this forum great. But this is a tough crowd here. You've said you have been making money with it for 14 years. So you must keep records? What I'd like to hear is something like this....
"In the NBA last year there were 30 such games. My system correctly picked the winner against the spread 18 times. The 30 such games were...."
"In the NHL there were 42 such games. My system picked the winner 21 times. However, since in the NHL I was betting money lines, and more often than not the underdog, I ended up 11 betting units..."
Giving the forum the specific games lets the members analyze your claim coherently. It seems like the one example you cite doesnt even meet your own criteria......
Quote: SOOPOOMichael.....
Your proposed betting method is what makes this forum great. But this is a tough crowd here. You've said you have been making money with it for 14 years. So you must keep records? What I'd like to hear is something like this....
"In the NBA last year there were 30 such games. My system correctly picked the winner against the spread 18 times. The 30 such games were...."
"In the NHL there were 42 such games. My system picked the winner 21 times. However, since in the NHL I was betting money lines, and more often than not the underdog, I ended up 11 betting units..."
Giving the forum the specific games lets the members analyze your claim coherently. It seems like the one example you cite doesnt even meet your own criteria......
Michael99000: Your post was great. That is why I am at this forum. We are here to discuss/share/explore our thoughts,theory or questions. We are not here to pound/discourage you but please provide more data.
The visitor won by 4. What more proof do you need that bookies are incompetent when making the line ?
everyone has an "angle".....but few seem to win
others feel "traveling" is so taxing on these pampered millionaires that when they g et home they just want to sleep in, and not play
its all psycho babble assuming we can get into the minds of these people or even have a glimmer of understanding of what they do on a daily basis
people can play below par becaus ethey have family issues that keep them up all night when they are home. and people can play below par because they use the road as one big party vehicle....and max out on the party life.
who knows which team has the most people tired from travel or family life vs party on the road exhaustion of the other team.
if anyone claims they really know...its all assumptions
11/10/07 Phoenix L 96-106 Regular Season L 1.5 U 209
11/09/07 @ New York W 112-102 Regular Season W 1 O 201
11/07/07 @ Toronto W 105-96 Regular Season W 4.5 O 191.5
11/06/07 @ Minnesota W 111-103 Regular Season W -6.5 O 188
11/03/07 @ Washington W 94-82 Regular Season W 1.5 U 198
4 game road trip for Orlando. Fly from New York to Phoenix, play a game on no rest, they are a 1.5 point dog, and lose by 10. And that's coming off a trip where they won and covered
4 games in 6 nights.
Furthermore, three weeks later they played Phoenix again and the line was Orlando +5.5 , meaning that yes the first game back was treated like a home game.
So buzzard, I believe this one covers the no days rest criteria as well as shows the line is in fact treated like a normal home game
Quote: BuzzardYeah, nothing changes in 3 weeks. Still waiting for more than a one game PROOF. I can show lots of one game proofs. Bet on team with most letters in their name, purples uniforms on a snowy night, etc.
Lol one thing I've learned for certain is you've got zero knowledge of NBA point spreads and how they are determined. But don't let that fact stop you from commenting.
And yes, nothing changed in 3 weeks. I checked the box score , all the key players who would affect the point spread played in both games. The difference in those two lines is obviously due to which team was home in each game.
I was born at night, but it wasn't last night.
Quote: BuzzardStill waiting for more than one game. Yeah, I know nothing, never collected for two of biggest books on each coast.
I was born at night, but it wasn't last night.
Could we get some locks for tonight or tomorrow night, even next week would be nice, please? Coming up with this stuff in the past when the results are known isn't exactly making me rich. Thanks.
Quote: michael99000Here's another example:
11/10/07 Phoenix L 96-106 Regular Season L 1.5 U 209
11/09/07 @ New York W 112-102 Regular Season W 1 O 201
11/07/07 @ Toronto W 105-96 Regular Season W 4.5 O 191.5
11/06/07 @ Minnesota W 111-103 Regular Season W -6.5 O 188
11/03/07 @ Washington W 94-82 Regular Season W 1.5 U 198
4 game road trip for Orlando. Fly from New York to Phoenix, play a game on no rest, they are a 1.5 point dog, and lose by 10. And that's coming off a trip where they won and covered
4 games in 6 nights.
Hi Michael. Thanks for your input and making us think. I'm confused as to why Orlando would be in Phoenix as a home game? Wouldn't they fly from New York to Orlando? Thanks.
Quote: NokTangHi Michael. Thanks for your input and making us think. I'm confused as to why Orlando would be in Phoenix as a home game? Wouldn't they fly from New York to Orlando? Thanks.
That's correct, the post should've said they flied from New York to Orlando, then played a home game vs Phoenix. Thanks for correcting that.
02/22/06 Charlotte L 106-110 Regular Season L -3.5 O 190
02/21/06 @ L.A. Lakers L 82-99 Regular Season L 11.5 U 195.5
02/15/06 @ New Orleans. L 86-102 Regular Season L 9 P 188
02/13/06 @ Charlotte W 91-83 Regular Season W 3.5 U 192.5
02/12/06 @ Toronto L 81-114 Regular Season L 7 U 199.5
02/10/06 @ Boston L 83-115 Regular Season L 5.5 O 185
02/08/06 @ Indiana L 69-101 Regular Season L 6.5 U 179
02/04/06 @ Denver L 104-105 Regular Season W 10 O 191
12/27/08 Utah W 120-115 OT Regular Season L -9 O 191
12/26/08 @ New Orleans L 79-88 Regular Season L 2.5 U 184.5
12/23/08 @ Cleveland. L 90-99 Regular Season L 7.5 O 186.5
12/22/08 @ New Jersey W 114-91 Regular Season W -5.5 O 197.5
12/20/08 @ Minnesota W 109-102 Regular Season W -5.5 O 192
Giving 9 in the first home game after the trip and didn't cover.
Each team has between 0 and 2 of these situations per season. So I'd say Larry's assessment that there are "LITERALLY 100s OF THESE OPPORTUNITIES TO BET EACH SEASON"...
May have been just a bit off.
I hear aLL these people with stats on sports radio
any east team that lost by 10points or more 2 days after playing a west coast team on the road, has covered th spread on their saturday game 76 percent of the time.
you get these convoluded statistical "angles" all the time.
so something as simple as road trip/very next game home is out there as well I am sure. The fact that I havent heard about it till now makes me wonder how did all these statistical geniouses miss it. I mean they can tell me the percent of covers of teams that lose to a divisional foe on tuesdays, but have to play a game on wed.in the afternoon. They can tell me the history covering for a team that has suffered 10 sacksd, while losing by more than 20 the week before.
These multibillion casinos who can hire the best of the best statistics analyzers...do not see they are vulnerable in this "angle" about the first day back from a road trip???
really?
All the books, on handicapping I read havent gotten the memo on this "angle" either.
cherry picking a few examples doesnt do anything.
And he has been too busy collecting his winning to keep any records.
Quote: BuzzardLarry, please do not confuse this issue with facts. The OP has proven that bookies are stupid.
And he has been too busy collecting his winning to keep any records.
You guys are BRUTAL with a capital B
" Now that NBA and NHL seasons are in full swing I'll share a little betting trend that's made me some nice profits over the past 14 years."
Quote: SOOPOOMichael.....
Your proposed betting method is what makes this forum great. But this is a tough crowd here. You've said you have been making money with it for 14 years. So you must keep records? What I'd like to hear is something like this....
"In the NBA last year there were 30 such games. My system correctly picked the winner against the spread 18 times. The 30 such games were...."
"In the NHL there were 42 such games. My system picked the winner 21 times. However, since in the NHL I was betting money lines, and more often than not the underdog, I ended up 11 betting units..."
Giving the forum the specific games lets the members analyze your claim coherently. It seems like the one example you cite doesnt even meet your own criteria......
NOT EXACTLY A "BRUTAL " REQUEST, BUT TOTALLY IGNORED !
Quote: michael990002008-2009 HOUSTON ROCKETS
12/27/08 Utah W 120-115 OT Regular Season L -9 O 191
12/26/08 @ New Orleans L 79-88 Regular Season L 2.5 U 184.5
12/23/08 @ Cleveland. L 90-99 Regular Season L 7.5 O 186.5
12/22/08 @ New Jersey W 114-91 Regular Season W -5.5 O 197.5
12/20/08 @ Minnesota W 109-102 Regular Season W -5.5 O 192
Giving 9 in the first home game after the trip and didn't cover.
In this example, it seems Houston would have come home after the Cleveland game, not stayed in New Orleans Christmas Eve and Christmas day when they didn't have a game?
Quote: michael990002005-2006 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
02/22/06 Charlotte L 106-110 Regular Season L -3.5 O 190
02/21/06 @ L.A. Lakers L 82-99 Regular Season L 11.5 U 195.5
02/15/06 @ New Orleans. L 86-102 Regular Season L 9 P 188
02/13/06 @ Charlotte W 91-83 Regular Season W 3.5 U 192.5
02/12/06 @ Toronto L 81-114 Regular Season L 7 U 199.5
02/10/06 @ Boston L 83-115 Regular Season L 5.5 O 185
02/08/06 @ Indiana L 69-101 Regular Season L 6.5 U 179
02/04/06 @ Denver L 104-105 Regular Season W 10 O 191
Again, at the least? it seems after the New Orleans game they would have gone back to Portland. Not bunked up in L.A. for four or five nights?
This brings me to the question "what do you consider a "road trip""?
Quote: speedycrapYou guys are BRUTAL with a capital B
It is a necessary evil. If you put your hard earned money on a system play, the bookie is a nice man, but he will keep your money.
All sort of BS artist have a winning system until challenged to show some proof. The OP said 14 years, laid out a format, then his 1st example did not meet the requirements at all.
This is followed up by a game one year, another 2 years later, etc. Cherry picking is the term for such a display. Did he keep any records at all ? Instead of looking up a game this year then 3 years ago then 7 years ago, why not look at last year as a starting point.
Hopefully this brutal approach has saved some people from buying a system or losing money on a free system. Actually, I can only speak for myself, but I would like nothing more than a system that has worked for 14 years, Even with only 15 or 20 plays a year in Nba and I guess the same in NHL.
But it's that old story Money Talks and BS walks.
There are people out there just dying to believe in a ":system".....they are the one constantly chasing the newest system, trying it out,, losing and then on to the next new system du jour.
someone has to ask for scientific proof.
John Patrick has a website and methods based almost entirely on declaration. No scoentific proof is provided.
he makes good money selling a sports service that has no basis for success...jusr declaration.
although this person here is not looking for money.....we still can be skeptical in a healthy way.
Quote: NokTangIn this example, it seems Houston would have come home after the Cleveland game, not stayed in New Orleans Christmas Eve and Christmas day when they didn't have a game?
I highly doubt that. With a game on the day after Christmas, they aren't going to fly home after the game on 12-23 and then have to fly back out on Christmas Day. And they don't fly on the actual day of a game. Teams on a road trip during holidays often spend the holiday on the road. And if they did, that just creates 6 flights in 8 days, which would make playing the 4th and 5th games back to back even more difficult.
01/27/07 Portland L 132-135 (OT) Regular Season L -3.5 O 209.5
01/26/07 @ San Antonio L 96-112 Regular Season L 14 U 210.5
01/24/07 @ Utah W 132-130 (OT) Regular Season W 11.5 O 219.5
01/22/07 @ Denver L 98-115 Regular Season L 12 U 233
01/20/07 @ L.A. Clippers L 91-112 Regular Season L 6.5 U 222.5
