michael99000
michael99000
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October 31st, 2013 at 10:16:34 PM permalink
if you know anyone who bet the over 42.5 on last nights Bengals v Dolphins game, you may want to keep them away from sharp objects.

For those who missed it, the game went to overtime tied 20-20. At that point the only way the over 42.5 loses is if the game ends in a tie (meaning the entire 15 minute overtime period goes by with no scoring by either team), or if the game ends on a safety.

Since 1989 a total of six nfl games have ended in a tie, and a total of two nfl games have ended with an overtime safety.

Final score Miami 22 Cincinnati 20

It's gotta go down as one of the worst beats or if you had the under, luckiest wins, ever.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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November 1st, 2013 at 5:59:33 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

and a total of two nfl games have ended with an overtime safety.



I know what it feels like to get burned by a safety all too well. They occurred in Super Bowls of 2009, 2012, and 2013.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
vendman1
vendman1
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November 1st, 2013 at 6:45:33 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I know what it feels like to get burned by a safety all too well. They occurred in Super Bowls of 2009, 2012, and 2013.



So Mike maybe you should Martingale your no safety bet :) It's due to come in right?
Buzzard
Buzzard
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November 1st, 2013 at 8:58:44 AM permalink
vendman, better duck. Even Mike has a limit !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
thecesspit
thecesspit
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November 1st, 2013 at 9:18:04 AM permalink
Watched Cameron Wake play in the CFL. He completely dominated in that league.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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November 1st, 2013 at 1:53:57 PM permalink
Every year I try to get my friends to bet with me 10-1 against a safety. I'll take the "no safety" and pay them 10 times if a safety happens. I'm on the advantage side mathematically, but many times recently I would have lost, which I feel like one of them should take me up on it eventually! Still hasn't happened though.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
michael99000
michael99000
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November 1st, 2013 at 9:54:36 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I know what it feels like to get burned by a safety all too well. They occurred in Super Bowls of 2009, 2012, and 2013.




Have you ever thought about switching to another high juice Super Bowl prop. How about this one:

WILL THE GAME GO TO OVERTIME ? and bet the NO.

You'd have won 47 in a row thus far without ever losing. The odds on NO are usually -1200, not bad at all for something that's on a 47 game success streak.

Perhaps someone better than me at math here can figure this out:

In 5761 NFL games, 340 have gone to overtime (5.9%), yet in 47 Super Bowls it's never happened.

What are the odds of something with a 6% chance of occurring , not occurring 47 times in a row?
tringlomane
tringlomane
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November 1st, 2013 at 10:03:27 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Have you ever thought about switching to another high juice Super Bowl prop. How about this one:

WILL THE GAME GO TO OVERTIME ? and bet the NO.

You'd have won 47 in a row thus far without ever losing. The odds on NO are usually -1200, not bad at all for something that's on a 47 game success streak.

Perhaps someone better than me at math here can figure this out:

In 5761 NFL games, 340 have gone to overtime (5.9%), yet in 47 Super Bowls it's never happened.

What are the odds of something with a 6% chance of occurring , not occurring 47 times in a row?



Using the exact numbers: (5421/5761)^47 = 5.73%. Given Super Bowl history though, we've been close to overtime a few times.
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
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November 1st, 2013 at 10:13:47 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

It's gotta go down as one of the worst beats or if you had the under, luckiest wins, ever.

I got one for you. Suppose you bet on the Super Bowl in February and took Baltimore to win by three and a half with a payoff of about 2 to 1 because the 49ers were favorites. You get to half-time thinking that you can't lose then there's this weird blackout and all of a sudden, Colin Kaepernick remembers how to throw the ball. You get to the 2 minute warning with a 5 point lead and all Baltimore has to do is punt with 12 seconds to go but instead intentionally scores a safety for the other team to try to run out the clock. They have to free-kick anyway with 4 seconds to go and your bet, instead of being worth $240 is now a worthless ball of bitterness and anger.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
Ncell
Ncell
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November 2nd, 2013 at 3:06:26 AM permalink
I've lurked on this site for so long. Congrats on making me register, heh.

I'm one of those people you mention. Had the Dolphins ML and the over together. Went into OT thinking any Dolphins score was good.

Well, almost any Dolphins score...

Pic of the ticket upon request.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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November 2nd, 2013 at 7:17:11 AM permalink
Quote: Ncell

I've lurked on this site for so long. Congrats on making me register, heh.

I'm one of those people you mention. Had the Dolphins ML and the over together. Went into OT thinking any Dolphins score was good.

Well, almost any Dolphins score...

Pic of the ticket upon request.



Welcome aboard, Ncell! Glad you decided to make it a two way street!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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November 2nd, 2013 at 1:23:44 PM permalink
Quote: Ncell

I've lurked on this site for so long. Congrats on making me register, heh.

I'm one of those people you mention. Had the Dolphins ML and the over together. Went into OT thinking any Dolphins score was good.

Well, almost any Dolphins score...

Pic of the ticket upon request.


I would be amused to see that. </schadenfreude>
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
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