week 9 NCAA football bets, discussion etc...

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would like to hear all constructive opinions,

here are my selections and their estimated advantages(adv) over the 7 point teaser,
eg a 2 point adv, would use the same figures/stats-tables as a 9 point teaser.

they are all five-game, 7 point teasers (ties reduce), with odds of 7/2 (+350, $4.50)

here are 7 individual picks below:
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week 9 NCAA football

1. buffalo @ kent state, kent state + 8.5 (estimate 2 point adv)

2. clemson @ maryland, clemson - 7 (estimate 1 point adv)

3. temple @ smu, smu -5.5 (estimate, 2 point adv)

4. california @ washington u, washington u - 18 (estimate 3 point adv)

5. west virginia @ kansas state, kansas state - 3 (estimate 1 point adv)

6. unlv @ nevada, unlv + 13 (estimate 1 point adv)

7. louisiana tech @ florida int, louisiana tech + 2 (estimate 1.5 point adv)
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Using more recent stats and tables, i would like to know what kind of Expected Return (ER) there would be ?,
hopefully above 100%, (please assume estimates are 'fairly accurate')

the bets were made at bet365, and the max bet you can do is $50 per combination (at the moment), or $1050 if you wanted all 21 of them.
nb: i am not sure how many times you can repeat this before the line changes,

also, using 'dated stats', between 2002-2008 are the tables that i use, i estimate the expected return to be between
109.9% (worst) - 120.8% (best),
and lastly, in my opinion i would drop pick 2. and pick 5., if you only wanted to bet on 'the best single 5-game combination'.

ps, if you bet equally on all combinations you would need 5 out of 21 to make a profit (which is about 107.1%).

I don't think you can accurately figure out your advantage based on a 'bad' line. I also think that your assertion of these 'bad' lines might be incorrect. Is there an injury you haven't factored in? A previous bye week for one of the teams? Weather conditions you ignored? Etc..... But anyway.... congratulations for putting your picks out there for all to see! Good luck! I do have one prediction for you.... Buffalo 41, Kent State 24....

I love the Clemson pick. The Terps best players on offense are all out - and unless the Tigers are mentally in the tank after last weekends beatdown - they should win by 28 points.

Also like the K State pick.

Interesting picks.

I will comment on the ones I have looked at.

for UNLV.....that is a game with a high total. Of course 13 points means more in a 50 total game than in a 67 point game which this is. I expect alot of scoring
However each team has this game circled at the beginning of the year. Its a bragging rights game. They each will be going all out in this one. Making your pick reasonable. However in a high scoring game 13 points doesnt interest me. Its still a coin flip for me. Unlv has lost by an ave of 12 on the road in its past games. Of course that is a small sample size...something like 3 games.

Buffalo...Interests me, they are having a relatively good year for them. Kent is 0-3 ats at home....buffalo 2-1. Not bad in a teaser

i should mention that there were other picks that i didn't put in that may have been better, here is one example below,

this is the regular handicap (so is a non teaser line)

stanford @ oregon state, oregon state + 2.5 (estimate 2.5 point advantage)

also, for oregon state game, i decided to wait to see what price it would be closer to game day, and then have a straight
handicap bet (hopefully it will be a better line than the current +5 or +5.5)

lastly, in the teaser above in the original post i factored in my expected line movement,
which i think is more important in the short-run for teasers than the 'estimated point advantage',
reason because, then i can hedge the teaser 'if and when the line moves in my favour'

I like the over in that game....

actual point change (extra advantage or disadvantage) , based on the current worst spread movement for my selection,
between pinnacle sports and 5dimes, for the earlier 7 pt teaser,
the points seemed to change as follows:
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1. kent state +8.5, the spread changed to a potential(p) disadvantage by an extra 1.0 points

2. clemson, -7, the spread changed to a p advantage by an extra 2.5 points

3. smu -5.5, the spread changed to a p advantage by an extra 1.5 points

4. washington u -18, the spread changed to a p advantage by an extra 3.0 points

5. kansas state -3, the spread changed to a p advantage by an extra 1.5 points

6. unlv +13, the spread changed to a p disadvantage by an extra 0.5 points

7. lousiana tech, the spread changed to a p advantage by an extra 0.5 points

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for the other selection, i didn't have a bet because the spread moved away from what it was by 1 point

it was a regular handicap:

i had oregon state rated at 2.5 pts, but was hoping for a spread change higher than the +5.5 pts on offer,

it is now +4.5 pts...
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ps, i didn't give myself enough time to check spelling and grammar,