REACTING TO LINES

I TRANSPORTED THIS FROM ANOTHER THREAD WHERE IT DIDNT REALLY FIT....WHERE IT WAS POSTED THAT PLEASER GAMES COME IN ABOUT 29 PERCENT OF THE TIME


this brings up a question.

If the man can be so far off on almost 30 percent of the "numbers" in football it begs the question, are they accurate.and can we accurately use those numbers as factual real numbers for which we calculate varience etc.

For example it is said that ther man provides a number that will promote equal action on both sides...this says nothing about real accuracybased on real expected results, based on talent.

sometimes the number may be bogus based on "the man" not evaluating talent and matchups effectively, sometimes the number may be off based on "the mans" perception of what will cause equal betting on both sides. Either way it seems the number "the man" comes up with cant be viewed on a consistant basis as a factual number as if it were handed down by god. As if its as factual as the numbers used to calculate probabilities in craps or roulette.

Isnt sports betting about finding value in talent and matchups, comparing it to "the mans number" comaring that number to the number you feel is valid, and then deciding if you picking the team has a value to recieve -110

so if "the man says the fave is -4.5 faves, and you reseach and feel it should be more like -6,,,,,then it seems to me that getting -110 is a bargain.

Isnt that what sports betting is all about...not just taking what is given to you...but instead weeding thru the games and finding what you believe is value?..because after all as we see with "pleasers".....the man is off a significan amount of time. Sometimes "off" on purpose in order to get equal money on both sides...sometimes "off" based on just poor judgement/evaluation.

using "the mans" numbers as if they arew some factual set of figures in my opinion is the wrong way to approach sports betting. And plugging those numbers into formulas.......is flawed unless accompanied by real good research on talent and individual matchups.

for example....there was great conversations about the Jags line last week....was it something like 27....give or take

ok was the man wrong in setting the line looking back? If the man got equal action on both sides...the man was successful

however reality states that line line was off by 10
it is conceivable that others could have come up with a line of 17 when evaluationg talent and match ups

if so those folks would have taken the 27 points and got paid -110...and it would have been a bargain in their minds

if the man can be off by so much on this game....and off by at least 7 points 29 percent of the time(pleaser fugures).....then how can people take the bookies figures as if it is gospel, as if it is a fact....and insert it into formulas as if the number is uncontrovertably provable

the numbers are just opinion.....and sometimes they are not opinion of reality/talent/matchuos...but of projected public sentiment...sometimes they are just poorly calculated.

" however reality states that line line was off by 10 "

NO ! Reality states the game is played on the field !

An almost intercepted pass there, a fumble here, etc. Hell, even a safety once in a while.

If you think the line is off a lot, just try beating it. Look at the results in here.

I love it when somebody cashes a bet and says " See, that line was off by 10. I knew it, I should of bet more."

After the game, of course! Hindsight is always 20/20.

and the casinos won because the line remained pretty stable throughout the week....and they got the action on both sides that they were looking for

and people who handicapped and came up with a line closer to 17 got great value at getting 27 paying -110

and the people putting full faith into the line the man came up with as being a factual line as if passed down from god.....well ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THOSE FOLKS LOST.

assuming the man has a monopoly on precise lines is a big assumption

OBVIOUSLY SOMETIMES THEY ARE NOT CLOSE......and others have analyzed the alternate more realistic spread and made money on the difference....thats what handicapping is all about. Finding the flaws and reacting to them

those that just blindly accept the mans numbers as correct and bet accordingly are doomed to failure

" those that just blindly accept the mans numbers as correct and bet accordingly are doomed to failure "

Those that think the man's numbers are wrong are welcome to prove him wrong.

Of course that 17 point line was absolutely perfect. AFTER THE GAME ! ! !

all final scores expose all lines as either valid or invalid....close or not close.

whether the line is calculated by me or calculated by the book.......the final score always perfectly shines the light on who was right or wrong..who was close or far off..... who wins or loses

no crying about bad beats, no crying about bad play selection, no crying about a bad bounce or an interceptipn....thats all figured in when handicapping defenses and offenses and special teams....the final score exposes all pre game handicapping as being either correct or not correct.

if one of the most successful sports bettors like billy walters bets on a game....do you think he picks games where he thinks the man is right on?..making the bet a coin flip for a -110 payout. He looks for value. He/his people come up with their own lines and compare it to the man....and then if there is a discrepency in their favor they bet accordingly. He doesnt assume the mans number is correct...is handed down from god , is automatically accurate.

People who bet that way, thinking that the mans number is autiomatically accurate ..taking whatever the man gives you....without coming up with your own independant number first.....are playing into the hands of the sportsbook...thats what they want. They want you to worship their numbers and assume they are reasonable.

Quote: Buzzard

" those that just blindly accept the mans numbers as correct and bet accordingly are doomed to failure "

Those that think the man's numbers are wrong are welcome to prove him wrong.

Of course that 17 point line was absolutely perfect. AFTER THE GAME ! ! !

yes of course the 17 point line was perfect AFTER THE GAME.

If you pay a sports service for picks..and t tells you to bet denver minus 26........and then after the game they tell you.....you have no reason to complain or be dissapointed because when I made the selection I didnt know what the score of the game would be like you do now.

If that is a good excuse...I would love to take peoples money and give out picks every day. i could never be faulted for wrong picks based on my own views of the spread....because I could always hide behind the "well you are complaining AFTER the game"

the final score....tells it all...

Bad or unlucky bounces are NOT figured into the line or into handicapping, that's why they are referred to as bad or unlucky. Meaning.. There was no way possible to account for them because there's no way to predict if or when they will happen, nor which team they will favor.

I disagree with pretty much every point made in this thread, but most of all with the thinking that because Denver won by 17 that that therefore was the correct line and 27 was wrong. All the 17 represents is one sample of a game , that if played out 1000 times, would result in an average point disparity much closer to 27 than 17.


And if u think the result of a game is what the line should've been, then the next time the cowboys play the broncos I'll take under 99 for 50k

Just because the Jags lost by 17 doesn't mean the line makers who put the line at 27 were wrong. There are random things that happen throughout the game, which lead to randomness in the score. The perfect line is one that divides the action 50/50 on both sides. As far as I know, that was accomplished with a line of 26-27, thus it was a good line. The sports book manager want to be in a position where he doesn't care who wins.

^^^
Just collect the juice. Who cares which half of the orange it comes from.

<<Bad or unlucky bounces are NOT figured into the line or into handicapping>>

In my opinion. bad or "unlucky" bounces are just one play out of 200 in football. Each team has over 100 plays combined on offense or defense where they can "make a play" where they can do something to make a difference in the game.

A single play in the beginning, middle or end of the game, is just one of a couple of hundred. So as one can point to a "bad bounce"....what about the other 200 platys or opportunities.

handicapping involves not only offense and defense, but also special teams, and also making an educated guess on the individual team gameplans.
Are the teams going to pass alot? Run alot and shorten the game?, Do they have a good kicker to get them out of poor field position? There are so many more things going on in handicapping, that "bad bounces" are the least issue to look at.

the goal is to handicap THAT ONE GAME....ON THAT ONE DATE.,,,not presupposing what will happen over 100 games.

Actually making an educated guess on gameplan can ber huge, and cant be minimized.

For example. Last week SF beat ARiz being up by 2, and spending 9 min in the last qtr pounding the ball, ay one point running it 12 times in a row.....finally into the endzone to go up by 9

Now this week, Tenn will be prepared for the run. Does SF change things up and go to the pass? Does SF stick to the run gameplan using frank gore as a workhorse till he has nothing left by the end of the season? Besides appraising talent and matchups, gameplan is often overlooked. Sometimes you just can look at today....you have to look at what went on the week before, and even what went on the last time the 2 teams met. Adjustments are a key.

So talent, matchups. coaching, adjustments and 200 plays all overshadow a "bad bounce". Each team has the opportunity to play in such a manner, and score in such a manner where a bad bounce is inconsequentiaL.

For every "bad bounce" I see in a game, there are many more "missed calls" or "bad calls" that occur. You can go on forever making excuses, what if the bad bounce never occured, what if the official made the obvious holding call instead of mssing it., what if the official didnt call that ticky tack penalty and just let the players play the game. Whatever the complaint..there are 200 opportunities for each team to make a difference.

where there people who handicapped, and came up with the possibility that each team could score 40 points or more in the denver,/dallas game? I bet there were....and they were right? Based on the conditions that prevailed on that particular gay.

Quote: LarryS

where there people who handicapped, and came up with the possibility that each team could score 40 points or more in the denver,/dallas game? I bet there were....and they were right? Based on the conditions that prevailed on that particular gay.

If the lines are so terrible then it should be easy to make millions exploiting them.

Quote: LarryS

I TRANSPORTED THIS FROM ANOTHER THREAD WHERE IT DIDNT REALLY FIT....WHERE IT WAS POSTED THAT PLEASER GAMES COME IN ABOUT 29 PERCENT OF THE TIME


this brings up a question.

If the man can be so far off on almost 30 percent of the "numbers" in football it begs the question, are they accurate.and can we accurately use those numbers as factual real numbers for which we calculate varience etc.

For example it is said that ther man provides a number that will promote equal action on both sides...this says nothing about real accuracybased on real expected results, based on talent.

sometimes the number may be bogus based on "the man" not evaluating talent and matchups effectively, sometimes the number may be off based on "the mans" perception of what will cause equal betting on both sides. Either way it seems the number "the man" comes up with cant be viewed on a consistant basis as a factual number as if it were handed down by god. As if its as factual as the numbers used to calculate probabilities in craps or roulette.

Isnt sports betting about finding value in talent and matchups, comparing it to "the mans number" comaring that number to the number you feel is valid, and then deciding if you picking the team has a value to recieve -110

so if "the man says the fave is -4.5 faves, and you reseach and feel it should be more like -6,,,,,then it seems to me that getting -110 is a bargain.

Isnt that what sports betting is all about...not just taking what is given to you...but instead weeding thru the games and finding what you believe is value?..because after all as we see with "pleasers".....the man is off a significan amount of time. Sometimes "off" on purpose in order to get equal money on both sides...sometimes "off" based on just poor judgement/evaluation.

using "the mans" numbers as if they arew some factual set of figures in my opinion is the wrong way to approach sports betting. And plugging those numbers into formulas.......is flawed unless accompanied by real good research on talent and individual matchups.

Of course handicapping can be good however its time consuming and takes some talent. Whats why people come of with other systems that statistically have an advantage. Both can be good ways to bet. If your good at handicapping but only have a few picks for that week you can add that to the parlay system and get a bigger advantage.

I think what some people don't understand is that handicappers don't care what the final score is or the final point spread. handicapping is not to determine how much someone will win by. Handicapping is to try and get half the bettors on one side and half the better on the other. A handicapper puts out the original line, but the public decides where the line goes from there. The public decides who they think will win and by how much based on how much money is placed on each side.

ZCore13

there are enough lines that are worth betting 6 or 7 figures for some...and they do make millions

see billy walters

it can be done

do I have enough time and knowledge and resources to devote into it...nope. Do i posses the knowldge and methods of handicapping that billy walters and his group possess? Nope...But I acknowledge that its doable. I acknowledge that the making of millions is being done as we speak.

Just because my handicapping skills doesnt allow me to be a multi millionaire...doesnt mean that it couldnt be done, it doesnt mean that games cant be successfully handicapped because "bad bounces" exist.

Some games are harder to get a handle on than others, some game spreads are right on by the man,...so dont bet on those games

other games are a value even if its a minority of them, even if its not the sexiest of the daily games,,

am I saying that I have the ability to recognize all those "value games".....surely not.....but its my goel every weekend out of the 100 games available for me to bet....i can identify 3 or 4 of them.

Sportsbetting is like poker. The ones good enough to win longterm are paid off by those who bet terribly. The house just manages the money and tries to balance it out on both sides as best as possible so it can collect the juice in the wagers.

Quote: Zcore13

I think what some people don't understand is that handicappers don't care what the final score is or the final point spread. handicapping is not to determine how much someone will win by. Handicapping is to try and get half the bettors on one side and half the better on the other. A handicapper puts out the original line, but the public decides where the line goes from there. The public decides who they think will win and by how much based on how much money is placed on each side.

ZCore13

you are talking about sports books not handicappers

I am a handicapper....and there are books galor on "handicapping"....and I dont work for a casino, and the books dont train your how to set a ine for a casino.

everyone on this board tries to handicap races, or games....and we dont work for casinos

Bettors set the lines, not bookmakers.

Bookmakers just put out an opening line. It's the action from the betting market that forms the actual point spread.

this brings us back to the original post which addressed 29 percent of teams attaining pleaser status...which is 7 points or more outside of the expected line.

the general public accepts the line, might move the line by a half point or a point....but thats about it.

they bet their favorite teams, or the televised games..accepting those lines given, even if a more obscure game has better value.

the public is like lemmngs. If the man says 27 is the number on the broncos/jags...well then like lemmings they bet on either side of that number. 50 percent of the people were betting a very poor value bet....therefore alot of people accepted that number as gospel and bet accordingly.

If the sharp money large bets thinks the number is right on target...there is no value on getting -110 on a coin flit...so they dont bet the game.

But the general public will accept -110 on a coin flip.

and not recognize the value part of the less sexy games..as they need to bet n their favorites.

Quote: Wizard

Just because the Jags lost by 17 doesn't mean the line makers who put the line at 27 were wrong. There are random things that happen throughout the game, which lead to randomness in the score. The perfect line is one that divides the action 50/50 on both sides. As far as I know, that was accomplished with a line of 26-27, thus it was a good line. The sports book manager want to be in a position where he doesn't care who wins.

Do you think there are instances where the books feel a certain result will occur and therefore move the line to try and persuade the public to bet a certain way? Here's an example of what I mean... For Monday nights Colts vs Chargers game the line was dropping all day long. It went from Colts -3 to -2.5...all the way down to Colts -1 at kickoff. Yet if you looked at any site that documents where the money is going, the betting was 85-90% on the colts. So if anything the line should've been going up not down. It's as though the books were begging gamblers to take Indy and welcomed the huge imbalance in the action... The game result as u know...chargers 19 colts 9.

You see this all the time, it's happening again today. I'm certain the public is betting Seattle yet the line is dropping on no significant news. Books must feel Arizona will win or else they'd be bumping the line higher.

I don't think that's true at all. Books don't bet on which team is going to win or lose. They don't care. And they don't care what is happening at other books. They adjust the line based on the specific betting at their place. They don't care if 80% of the money is going one way at other places if it's not going that way at their place.

The book has a guaranteed win with no risk when they get 50% to bet on one side and 50% to bet on the other. They don't want to risk their money on who wins the game.


ZCore13

Quote: michael99000

Do you think there are instances where the books feel a certain result will occur and therefore move the line to try and persuade the public to bet a certain way? Here's an example of what I mean... For Monday nights Colts vs Chargers game the line was dropping all day long. It went from Colts -3 to -2.5...all the way down to Colts -1 at kickoff. Yet if you looked at any site that documents where the money is going, the betting was 85-90% on the colts. So if anything the line should've been going up not down. It's as though the books were begging gamblers to take Indy and welcomed the huge imbalance in the action... The game result as u know...chargers 19 colts 9.

You see this all the time, it's happening again today. I'm certain the public is betting Seattle yet the line is dropping on no significant news. Books must feel Arizona will win or else they'd be bumping the line higher.

I'd be interested to see anything first hand about the betting behavior in that game. Assuming the above is true, maybe the books had a lot of parlay card risk on San Diego, and were trying to mitigate it with heavy action on the Colts.

maybe the percentages that you quote takes into account public money,,,and if late sharp money in large denominations came in...it probably wont show up in your figures

Quote: Zcore13

I don't think that's true at all. Books don't bet on which team is going to win or lose. They don't care. And they don't care what is happening at other books. They adjust the line based on the specific betting at their place. They don't care if 80% of the money is going one way at other places if it's not going that way at their place.

The book has a guaranteed win with no risk when they get 50% to bet on one side and 50% to bet on the other. They don't want to risk their money on who wins the game.


ZCore13

im not 100% sure but I believe books can have bad super bowl games, I would not say they lose money for the the year, but profits get cut drastically.

Yes, they can. Sometime you can't get bet's to line up 50/50, especially when they offer a whole load of prop bets. If they can't get a good balance on bets they can take a bath or win big, but that is not the way they want to do it.

ZCore13

Quote: AxelWolf

im not 100% sure but I believe books can have bad super bowl games, I would not say they lose money for the the year, but profits get cut drastically.

I think that is usually caused when there is a movement in the line, and the actual score falls where the line moved through, meaning the sports book got middled.

Quote: Zcore13

Yes, but that is not the way they want to do it.

ZCore13

obviously I'm fairly sure 99% of the people here here understand this.

Your run of the mill local "bookie" almost never has equal action on both sides of any game, I know this for sure. Take a guy who has 75-100 customers , all of whom are located in his local area. First issue is most will be a fan of the same team and more inclined to bet on that team than against it. I live in NJ and I know for a fact that my guy roots heavily against the jets giants yankees mets Knicks etc. every game they play because almost 100% of his action is on those teams. Aside from that..your average gambler is a favorite and Over bettor, and on pretty much every nfl game a local book will have his action weighted 75% on the favorite! especially on national TV games. So this whole...get 50/50 action and collect the vig is a pipe dream for anything but the largest books.

Yet somehow these local bookies still make a ton of cash over the long run...why? Because each bet placed by a customer is risking 110 to win 100, and in the long run everyone hits 50% of his games. (Provided the linesmakers are doing their job). Are there sharps who can win 55%, sure there are, but 1. They are extremely rare and 2. They aren't betting with local cash bookies. They are betting offshore with books who welcome their action because they need something to offset the action being placed by squares who represent 95% of their clientele

And Also, squares are more likely to bet higher negative EV bets, such as teasers parlays and moneyline favorites

Quote: michael99000

Your run of the mill local "bookie" almost never has equal action on both sides of any game, I know this for sure. Take a guy who has 75-100 customers , all of whom are located in his local area.

Time to air some dirty laundry..... My father was a bookie, and would 'lay off' some bets to a national 'affiliate' if he received too much action on one side. The bigger affiliate was happy, as they would get vigs from both LA and NY, as an example, when the Knicks played the Lakers. My father, the 'little man', did not want the variance that might come with a big disparity because of overbetting the local teams.

The first bookie I worked for was Henry Gordon. He would always get calls from other books seeing if Henry liked a particular game.
He would be offered a "nickle" line on a team in that game. That way the guy calling could balance his books. Collecting 110/100 on the heavy team if it lost and a mix of 110/105 on the light team. One of the guys who called was Dom Angelini with Chicago money.
This was in late 1950's and early 60's. Don's book was in the millions even back then. Besides booking, he also set the line.
I just answered the payphone a few times and would tell Henry it was Don.

He has a weird nick name, but I never heard him referred by it back then. WIZARD OF ODDS !

" Time to air some dirty laundry" A noble profession. Now if he was a wall street broker, touting what a great investment a stock was, while dumping his own shares, or churning a widow's account, then you should hang you head in shame.

Billy Walters Billy Walters Billy Walters.

Make sure you get into Mr. Peabody's way-back time machine. So you can get newspapers flown in from all over the country. not like on the internet now. And get those soft lines from back then too. Oh, and don't forget to get those different lines from 45 states, like Billy did. And of course the computer he used in 1985, no way there are better ones available now.
And don't forget to invest in land development and golf courses along the way.

And since the actual score is what the line should have been, OH MY. Every week you will find NFL games that the line was off 20 or 30 points.

Why not be NICE and post 1 or 2 of those sure winners? Along with what the live actually should be. Please share with us how you
reached your decision as well.

Thank you in advance and good luck in you new career as a professional gambler.

P.S. You only need 52.8% to break even. Any idea what Billy's team best year was ? ? ?

Central Florida was a 14 point and +600 ODDS dog tonight at Louisville and won the game 38-35

According to Larry S, this means the line on this game should've been Central Florida -3 LOL

I wish these two teams were scheduled to play again this year, so I could call Larry and lay a few bucks on Louisville +3

You won't want to bet against him after he post a few NFL winners before Sunday games.

If anyone watched the pathetic showing of Louisville against Rutgers last week, a much different line could be calculated and would have held up because the central fla team was getting great value in the spread.

if you watched the game, its not as if CF lucked out. They fell behind just like rutgers, and then THEY came back and systematically beat louisville over the second half. No single bad call, no crazy bounce. They beat them over time.

this was indeed a value play on the side of CF, just as the 26(ort 19.5 first half) spread was a value number for the jags last week...

My analysis pointed to CF covering that number. I wont claim that I felt CF would win outright. But the name "louisville" and thier over rated QB has gotten alot ofpress...and with that the man felt an overinflated number would attract equal betting on either side.

they probably accomplished that.....and the people who got the 14points were getting something of real value.

maybe people sharper than me, calculated CF as the fave. Just like the man, my number is not the last word.

obviously, the mans number was way off for who willwin or lose....but was probably just right inrder toget equalbetting on each side.

How do I react to Lines?
1.) I hate waiting in them
2.) 98 don't do lines.
3.) I walk away from both.

Hey Larry, post a few winners for me. You don't have to explain your logic, but it would be NICE !

Quote: AxelWolf

obviously I'm fairly sure 99% of the people here here understand this.

They may here now, but more than half the people I ever talk to about betting lines don't know how it works and if you read some of the earlier posts in this thread, some have thought that the sportsbook adjusts the lines based on who they think is going to win and by how much and someone thought their bookie kept wagers on the books that were way off the 50/50 mark. . I just clarified that it's the betting public that adjusts the lines and that the book wants half of the bets on each side. When a bookie gets too much on one side and doesn't have the action to equal it, they usually pawn the extra bets off on a bigger bookie or sportsbook.


ZCore13

Quote: Buzzard

Hey Larry, post a few winners for me. You don't have to explain your logic, but it would be NICE !

and what would that prove. If i post 2 selections and they end up winning, does it prove that my thoughts and observations about sports gambling is correct? And if I give 2 bad picks, does it prove anything in the opposite direction?

secondly, I have posted on another board, and will disclose here, that I bet 2k oer weekend, 100k per year, and over the last 3 years have averaged a 6 percent return. 6k.....nothing to brag about. I do enjoy the research and the process....but its nothing I would be quitting my day job over.

within the year there are very good weekends, some bad ones, and alot of small loss/ small net win weekends.

I am always looking for others opinions, and will play the devils advocate in order to learn something


but I am not chasing other peoples picks and I dont give mine. Not because I am guarding them, but because out of the 52 weeks of the year...there are hundreds of pciks and to give a handful is no a good cross section

I have given my opinion over the months, like in week one and 2 i liked miami, and I did ask if the giants had any real offense after game 1. A "fan" gave me a couple paragraphs in response detailing the great offene we will be seeing. So much for o0bjectivity when it comes to "fans".

anyway...I do not post picks, but have posted commentary where you can tell where I am leaning, but asking for others opinion. I find that more useful than just copying someone elses picks.

anyway, I do not make any of my bets and final decisions till an hour or less before the game, so I can have full into before spending my money. Ie weather and late scratches.

Quote: Zcore13

They may here now, but more than half the people I ever talk to about betting lines don't know how it works and if you read some of the earlier posts in this thread, some have thought that the sportsbook adjusts the lines based on who they think is going to win and by how much and someone thought their bookie kept wagers on the books that were way off the 50/50 mark. . I just clarified that it's the betting public that adjusts the lines and that the book wants half of the bets on each side. When a bookie gets too much on one side and doesn't have the action to equal it, they usually pawn the extra bets off on a bigger bookie or sportsbook.


ZCore13

I agree that the sports books want = action on each side. I agree that bookies usually will LAY OFF the extra action. Smart ones( small time bookies) may not if the line moves to much and it will cost them value. I guess the general public may think its you VS the bookie or sports book.

The general public may have a part in 1/2, 1 or 2 points when it comes to setting the lines. I think for the most part the odds makers need to be fairly close to what the line should actually be. I guess its a balancing act, in setting it to what it should be, and how the general public is betting.

" I have given my opinion over the months, like in week one and 2 i liked miami, and I did ask if the giants had any real offense after game 1"

Have fun Larry. If you want to save some time you could just throw darts at the line. This is evidently just a hobby and will never be a profession. I thought maybe you actually might be on to something, being adamant about the line not reflecting the final score.
But that is not the case, per your post and selection method. SIGH

for people who accept the mans line as factual might as well throw darts

if sports bettors start out by accepting the mans line as being valid because after all...the manis god.....they are doomed to lose in the long run.

actually the best way to handicapp is to know the teams well enoguh so yu lnow the abilitties of players on each side and can pick out matchup issues that can be exploited by one side or the other.

Do I do this? Nope. But I do realize that pouring over stats helps up to a point but doesnt say all there is to say about THIS particular game that is going on TODAY between 2 teams that have not met recently. There may be a certain matchup where the dog make have the advantage, and may be able to take advantage of it in a way where they win or cover. Something not seen in "stats" or the mans line.

All I am saying is that in football it is rather naive to look at the mans uine and plug numbers based on that into some mathematical formula as if the mans numbers are as factual as the certainty of the hard eight coming out a certain percent of times in the long run at craps.