Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars in 2 weeks. Poll - what do you think point spread will be
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25 members have voted
Since 1989, highest spread ever have been 23 1/2. Its happened twice. Will we have a record? If Peyton has a big game next week and the Jags lose big again, could be one for the record books spread wise.
Does the Wiz have it in him to bet against this Years record setting Peyton if he gets an incredible money line offer?
I predict a record spread simply due to Peyton will probably smash multiple passing records this year. He's just starting to get to know his receivers, scary for the Jags.
Money line at +4500?
Quote: KeyserSozeI would be a bit surprised if Vegas hangs a moneyline on a 28 point favorite.
I was thinking the same thing.
Currently, Denver -25
Based on the first four games:
Average points scored by Denver = 44.75
Average points given up by Denver = 22.75
Average points scored by Jack. = 7.75 (that is sad).
Average points given up by Jack. = 32.25
Expected points by Denver = average(average Denver points, average Jack. points given up) = 38.5
Expected points by Jack. = average(average Jack points, average Denver points given up) = 15.25
Before considering home field advantage, the spread should thus be 38.5-15.25 = 23.25.
Home field advantage is worth 3 points. So I subtract 1.5 if playing away, and add 1.5 if playing at home. Denver is playing at home that game, so my answer is 23.25+1.5 = 24.75. Round it up to 25. I put the fair money line at +2100.
Quote:Since 1989, highest spread ever have been 23 1/2
Not sure where this info came from but in 2007 the Patriots were -24 vs Eagles and -24.5 vs Jets. The underdog covered both of them.
"Peyton Manning alone against the Jags."
"Manning by two hundred points!"
Quote: WizardThe following very simple method will usually predict a point spread to within 3 points, and a total much closer.
Based on the first four games:
Average points scored by Denver = 44.75
Average points given up by Denver = 22.75
Average points scored by Jack. = 7.75 (that is sad).
Average points given up by Jack. = 32.25
Expected points by Denver = average(average Denver points, average Jack. points given up) = 38.5
Expected points by Jack. = average(average Jack points, average Denver points given up) = 15.25
Before considering home field advantage, the spread should thus be 38.5-15.25 = 23.25.
Home field advantage is worth 3 points. So I subtract 1.5 if playing away, and add 1.5 if playing at home. Denver is playing at home that game, so my answer is 23.25+1.5 = 24.75. Round it up to 25. I put the fair money line at +2100.
I don't understand this ...." So I subtract 1.5 if playing away, and add 1.5 if playing at home" , I think your forgetting about the neutral field aspect
Yes home field is worth 3 points, but you're method is only giving it 1.5 points. On a neutral field the spread would be -23.25, in Denver -26.25, and if the game was played in Jacksonville then the line is -20.25. Obviously they'd round those off.
Quote: michael99000I don't understand this ...." So I subtract 1.5 if playing away, and add 1.5 if playing at home" , I think your forgetting about the neutral field aspect
Yes home field is worth 3 points, but you're method is only giving it 1.5 points. On a neutral field the spread would be -23.25, in Denver -26.25, and if the game was played in Jacksonville then the line is -20.25. Obviously they'd round those off.
I think you're forgetting about it. Home field is worth 1.5 points compared to a neutral field, and 3 points compared to an enemy field. My calculation of a neutral field spread was 23.25. Since Denver is the home team, add 1.5: 23.25 + 1.5 = 24.75. If Jack were at home I would subtract 1.5: 23.25-1.5=21.75. The difference is 24.75=212.75 = 3, what the home field advantage is worth compared to an enemy field.
Quote: WizardI think you're forgetting about it. Home field is worth 1.5 points compared to a neutral field, and 3 points compared to an enemy field. My calculation of a neutral field spread was 23.25. Since Denver is the home team, add 1.5: 23.25 + 1.5 = 24.75. If Jack were at home I would subtract 1.5: 23.25-1.5=21.75. The difference is 24.75=212.75 = 3, what the home field advantage is worth compared to an enemy field.
I disagree. Generally, in the NFL, home field is worth 3 points compared to a neutral field, not 1.5 points. So two even teams playing at a neutral field is listed as a pick'em game. If either team is at home, the home team becomes a 3 point favorite, they do not become a 1.5 point favorite. Not relevant to this exact discussion, but there are certain fields that were considered to be worth as much as 4 points, and others as little as 2.5 points. In college I believe the high a field can be worth is 5 points to the home team. Astute gamblers know which home field is worth more. Perhaps this can be another "Wizard homework project" which might lead to some advantage plays!
Quote: PerditionI wonder if the 28 line will make it through the day. Probably going have have a ton of action.
I can assure you it must be the first time a team that gave up 500 yards passing the week before is a 20+ point favorite!
As someone who is around 3-20 in picks, me saying I love the Jags +28 just doesn't carry a lot of weight......
Quote: SOOPOO... So two even teams playing at a neutral field is listed as a pick'em game. If either team is at home, the home team becomes a 3 point favorite, they do not become a 1.5 point favorite.
Agreed. That's always how I've understood it to be.
Quote: PerditionI wonder if the 28 line will make it through the day. Probably going have have a ton of action.
Looks like it's down to 27 at William Hill and 27.5 at LVH.
Quote: SOOPOOI disagree. Generally, in the NFL, home field is worth 3 points compared to a neutral field, not 1.5 points. s!
Yes, this is true.
Evidenced by a few years ago when the cowboys and eagles played twice in three weeks. The game in Dallas was dallas -6, the game in Philly was a pkem
Wizard, I believe if you ask one of your sportsbook guys, he will confirm that home field is worth 3 points from a nuetral field.
Quote: SOOPOOI disagree. Generally, in the NFL, home field is worth 3 points compared to a neutral field, not 1.5 points.
What is your evidence?
From 1994 to 2012 the average away score was 19.92 and average home score was 22.67. That is a difference of 2.75. This is comparing a team playing on their home field to a team playing on an enemy field. If your theory were true we could expect to see an average six-point difference between home and away team.
If you have 2 evenly matched teams, the home team is installed as a 3 pt favorite (not 1.5 pts). You see this each year with evenly matched division rivals. Team A is favored by 3 at home, then will be a 3 pt dog when playing on the road against the same opponent.
This is common knowledge, and shouldn't be disputed. Just ask any linesmaker.
Quote: Wizard
From 1994 to 2012 the average away score was 19.92 and average home score was 22.67. That is a difference of 2.75. This is comparing a team playing on their home field to a team playing on an enemy field. If your theory were true we could expect to see an average six-point difference between home and away team.
I don't doubt your numbers, but aren't we talking about setting a pointspread? If you routinely set the home team as a 1.5 point favorite against a evenly matched opponent, you will be flooded with money on the home team. And you will be out of business rather quickly because they will cover that number enough to overcome 11/10.
Quote: KeyserSozeThe typical difference from NFL home field and NFL road field is 6 pts.
If you have 2 evenly matched teams, the home team is installed as a 3 pt favorite (not 1.5 pts). You see this each year with evenly matched division rivals. Team A is favored by 3 at home, then will be a 3 pt dog when playing on the road against the same opponent.
This is common knowledge, and shouldn't be disputed. Just ask any linesmaker.
I don't dispute that. What I'm saying is if you calculate the expected number of points each team will score, you add 1.5 points to the team playing on its own field, and subtract 1.5 points from the team playing on an enemy field. The difference is 3 points. Thus your 3-point spread.
Quote: KeyserSozeI don't doubt your numbers, but aren't we talking about setting a pointspread? If you routinely set the home team as a 1.5 point favorite against a evenly matched opponent, you will be flooded with money on the home team. And you will be out of business rather quickly because they will cover that number enough to overcome 11/10.
No, I'm talking about estimating the number of points scored by each individual team. If the teams were evenly matched on a neutral field I would of course make the spread 3 on the underdog, because 2*1.5=3.
Let's look at an example. On a neutral field team 1 and team 2 can each expect to score x points. Then they decide to move the game to team 1's field. Now expected points scored by each team are:
Team 1: x+1.5
Team 2: x-1.5
Difference = point spread = (x+1.5) - (x-1.5) = 3.
My general formula for the probability of an x-point underdog winning is e-0.13176*x/(1+e-0.13176*x).
Plugging in x=26.5, we get a probability of the Jaguars winning of 2.96%, which equates to a fair money line of about 33 to 1.
Granted there are zero games with a point spread this big. There are not that many anywhere in the twenties. So this is definitely the kind of bet where there isn't a lot to go on.
Personally, I'll only bet if I can get 40 to 1 or more.
Quote: WizardI see Pinnacle put the spread at 26.5.
My general formula for the probability of an x-point underdog winning is e-0.13176*x/(1+e-0.13176*x).
Plugging in x=26.5, we get a probability of the Jaguars winning of 2.96%, which equates to a fair money line of about 33 to 1.
Granted there are zero games with a point spread this big. There are not that many anywhere in the twenties. So this is definitely the kind of bet where there isn't a lot to go on.
Personally, I'll only bet if I can get 40 to 1 or more.
If nothing out of the ordinary occurs in this game, then I'd argue there's a 0% chance the jaguars win. Anyone who places a bet on the moneyline is basically betting on the chance that Peyton
Manning can be injured and knocked out of the game on theoretically any play. Or, Jax will score an extraordinary number of points on plays where the two teams talent levels are more
even with each other, special teams. So by taking the moneyline at 33-1 you're saying that the odds of one of those events occurring is such that 33-1 payout offers value
As far as I know, The only sporting event in my lifetime where a > 33-1 underdog won outright is Mike Tyson vs Buster Douglas (44-1). And I'd argue that boxing is a bad comparison, because in boxing all it takes is one human being to be unprepared that night (which is what happened) or one instance where he fails to defend himself properly, and it can be over. On Sunday, one, two , or several broncos players can have bad days, and they can still win this game rather easily.
Personally, If I'm looking for a 35-1 payout, I'd rather place my money on a roullette number. I feel that has a much better chance of winning then the jags do
EA SPORTS Madden 25 prediction
"41-10 triumph for the Broncos, with Manning set to go 32-of-39 for 392 yards and four touchdowns. The game simulation has Denver opening up a 38-3 lead, before eventually turning off the gas midway through the third quarter and kindly allowing Jacksonville a consolation touchdown – a 32-yard pass from Chad Henne to Justin Blackmon – while still covering the spread"
Heres the link to whole article
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/denver-cover-28-point-spread-against-jacksonville-madden-232840280--nfl.html
Quote: michael99000If nothing out of the ordinary occurs in this game, then I'd argue there's a 0% chance the jaguars win.
Maybe something out of the ordinary will happen.
Jack.: +3000
Denver: -7000
That may seem like a wide spread, with a high house edge. However, if we assume the house edge is the same on both sides, it isn't that bad.
First let me define two variables to stand for the winning odds on a "for one" basis. In this case:
j=31
d=71/70 = 1.0142857.
The estimated probability of Jack winning is d/(d+j) = 0.0317.
The estimated probability of Denver winning is j/(d+j) = 0.968318.
Let's calculate the expected return on both sides.
Jack: 0.031682 * 31 - 1 = -0.017849
Denver: 0.968318 * 1.0142857 - 1 = -0.017849
So, both sides have a house edge of 1.78%. That is much less than the 4.54% of betting against the spread.
Of course, that is no guarantee that the house edge on any single side is 1.78%.
Quote: WizardI see that 5dimes has money lines as follows:
Jack.: +3000
Denver: -7000
That may seem like a wide spread, with a high house edge. However, if we assume the house edge is the same on both sides, it isn't that bad.
First let me define two variables to stand for the winning odds on a "for one" basis. In this case:
j=31
d=71/70 = 1.0142857.
The estimated probability of Jack winning is d/(d+j) = 0.0317.
The estimated probability of Denver winning is j/(d+j) = 0.968318.
Let's calculate the expected return on both sides.
Jack: 0.031682 * 31 - 1 = -0.017849
Denver: 0.968318 * 1.0142857 - 1 = -0.017849
So, both sides have a house edge of 1.78%. That is much less than the 4.54% of betting against the spread.
Of course, that is no guarantee that the house edge on any single side is 1.78%.
Explain to me what is wrong with my thinking....
One way the line is 70-1, the other way 30-1.
Thus the fair line is around 50-1.
Thus the bookies estimate that Jags win 2% of the time, and Denver 98%.
So $1000 bet on Jags should fairly pay $50,000 but only pays 30,000
So $1000 bet on Broncs should fairly pay $1020, but only pays $1015
Looks like quite a bit higher than 1.78%, closer to 30 or 40% to me....
Quote: SOOPOOThus the fair line is around 50-1.
The rule of thumb of moving the money lines the same number of points from the fair line is not true for significantly lopsided games.
According to my fair probability of Jack winning of 1.78%, the fair money lines are +/- 3056.
So, getting 30 to 1, when 30.56 to 1 is fair, is obviously close to fair.
While laying 70 to 1 may look like an awful bet, you at least get your money back 96.83% of the time.
Quote: WizardMaybe something out of the ordinary will happen.
It very well might.
Last night the Jets won outright as a 10 point, -400 ML dog. And the out of the ordinary occurrence in my opinion, was Geno Smith outplaying Matt Ryan.
Sometimes it doesn't take a whole lot to turn the tide. We aren't dealing with a ball dropping into a wheel, we are dealing with people, and just like with
Horse racing...ya never know. Anyone can have a bad day...or an overly good day.
the jets coaching outcoached atlantas coaching...especially on the last plays of the first half which came back t bite them in the but at the end of the game
In the end the score will be Denver 42, Jaguars 21.
Manning will be injured and leave the game. He will be out for several games. This will enable the Cheifs to beat the Broncos and win the division. The Cheifs then go on to win the Super Bowl.
to smoke or inhale a drug more than likely marijuana
The Cheifs then go on to win the Super Bowl.
A Freudian slip ?
Quote: KeyserI read somewhere that the Jaguars score around seven points per game. However, in the game against Denver I believe that they will score more than usual. The Jaguars will probably score something closer to 21 points, and of course, lose. The reason I believe that they will score more points than usual is because they will be taking larger risks in an attempt to keep up with the Broncos.
In the end the score will be Denver 42, Jaguars 21.
Manning will be injured and leave the game. He will be out for several games. This will enable the Cheifs to beat the Broncos and win the division. The Cheifs then go on to win the Super Bowl.
that is actually a good point for people loking at the cover.
teams that know they are going nowhere tend to play by different rules than the better team that has something to lose by a bad decision.
for example....4th and 2 AT MIDFIELD......usually an easy kickoff decision for a team that has something to lose. But for a team that has nothing to lose...what the heck..go for it and maybe eventually get 3 or 7.
Quote: BuzzardThe Cheifs then go on to win the Super Bowl.
A Freudian slip ?
5-0 Isn't a Freudian slip. :)
Quote: LarrySthat is actually a good point for people loking at the cover.
teams that know they are going nowhere tend to play by different rules than the better team that has something to lose by a bad decision.
for example....4th and 2 AT MIDFIELD......usually an easy kickoff decision for a team that has something to lose. But for a team that has nothing to lose...what the heck..go for it and maybe eventually get 3 or 7.
What you stated above is exactly what leads to huge blowouts. Teams that feel so inferior that they feel that they have to play by a different set of rules in to win. After all, teams do what they do because it allows for the best chance to win. The teams that stray because they feel that it is hopeless otherwise, they get smashed. Can the Jags cover? Sure. I think they lose by 35.
Quote: KeyserI read somewhere that the Jaguars score around seven points per game. However, in the game against Denver I believe that they will score more than usual. The Jaguars will probably score something closer to 21 points, and of course, lose. The reason I believe that they will score more points than usual is because they will be taking larger risks in an attempt to keep up with the Broncos.
I think the Jaguars will need variance in their total points, and Denver will avoid variance. Thus I would expect the Jags to make more chances, like going for it on 4th and short, while Denver will favor punting. This won't necessarily lead to more expected points by the Jags, in fact it will probably mean less, but the probability of winning should go up marginally.
Quote: WizardI think the Jaguars will need variance in their total points, and Denver will avoid variance. Thus I would expect the Jags to make more chances, like going for it on 4th and short, while Denver will favor punting. This won't necessarily lead to more expected points by the Jags, in fact it will probably mean less, but the probability of winning should go up marginally.
I think the key will be just when Mannings goes to the sidelines. Why risk injury ?
If the teams were to switch quarterbacks before the game, denver would still be an 11 point favorite.
I thought about this a bit, and decided I'd put everything I own on manning and the jaguars + the 11.
Of course I think this hypothetical assumes each Qb would have a workable knowledge of the play book
