Half Point Parlay Cards
Quote: EdCollins
So this means each individual parlay card played has a player advantage of +10.8%. (I think.)
Perhaps, but the logic I don't grasp yet is how this adds up when you do a "round robin" or bet all possibilities.
Quote: WizardI'm not sure I'm following your argument why I'm in error.
I guess as I just posted, if you bet all the possible results I seriously doubt you will get an automatic 10.8% return on the single winning wager/card. That is the implied "advantage" you are making?
Quote: NokTangI guess as I just posted, if you bet all the possible results I seriously doubt you will get an automatic 10.8% return on the single winning wager/card. That is the implied "advantage" you are making?
You aren't betting all possible results. You bet all combinations of the sides you like. The advantage comes not from the round robin itself, but from the fact that you are getting a half point or more from what the "true" line is on all of those sides and are getting it off a key number.
My guess is that The House isn't that concerned about round robins per se, but they see it as a red flag for someone making this play. It's also just an easy excuse for turning down the tickets, if asked.
Quote: AxelWolfI'm surprised they even have paper cards nowadays and not all betting terminals and phone apps. Then they could just change everything instantly.
I think all these cards are just a Vegas tradition. The betting terminals and phone apps are still not that popular. I think the best alternative is to up to the writer and do off the board parlays. However, I hate getting stuck behind somebody doing a whole bunch of those, and it is always for just $5 each.
Quote: NokTangI guess as I just posted, if you bet all the possible results I seriously doubt you will get an automatic 10.8% return on the single winning wager/card. That is the implied "advantage" you are making?
I still don't understand your point. I'm not saying that doing a Round Robin guarantees an automatic 10.8% return, like putting the money in an interest-earning bank account. It is just an average win.
For example, if there was a bet that had a 1% chance of winning 109.8 (to one) and 99% of losing 1, then the advantage would be 10.8%. However that doesn't mean that if you bet $100 one time you'll walk away with $110.80.
I bet there are people who feel a bit pressured making a somewhat complicated play at the window too, because they don't want to be that person or they don't want to look foolish by saying the wrong thing, or they don't want to mess up the bet. They just want to fill out a card and turn it in.
As to constantly changing the numbers, I think that would be a cluster. You get some losing regular who fills out a bunch of cards with a huge disadvantage to himself. He turns them in. "Oh no, we're using new numbers now." He thinks it's because USC went from -23 to -25. Multiply by 200.
Quote: Wizard
For example, if there was a bet that had a 1% chance of winning 109.8 (to one) and 99% of losing 1, then the advantage would be 10.8%. However that doesn't mean that if you bet $100 one time you'll walk away with $110.80.
That makes my point, flawed as it may be.....
If you bet all the possibilities, 100, then you have a 100% chance of winning $110.80 on one of the tickets. That's the impression given.
Quote: NokTangThat makes my point, flawed as it may be.....
If you bet all the possibilities, 100, then you have a 100% chance of winning $110.80 on one of the tickets. That's the impression given.
In this case, no. You're not betting all possibilities. For example, this week Buffalo is a +3 underdog but getting +3.5 on the cards. You're not offsetting with Houston -3.5. If Houston -3.5 wins, then nothing good can come out of it, because that pick should be on zero cards.
Click on image for larger version.
The TI has a good 5-teamers at 25 for 1, but William Hill is good at 5, 6, and 7, at 25, 50, and 100 respectively.
Sorry this is coming after the Thursday night game. NYG +3.5 was on almost all my cards, for they were +3 off the board.
Oh yes I understand that. Don't mess with a gamblers, car, woman or gambling traditions.Quote: WizardI think all these cards are just a Vegas tradition.
Or so I thought, until they did away with coin droppers.
Quote: WizardPanthers +3.5 is going to be a card killer this week. A small number skip that one but are still vulnerable to Bills +3.5, not to mention a host of unplayed games.
Thanks again for posting real cards. We do enjoy and appreciate it.
As for this week, well sometimes it's better to lose all your picks than to be leveraged on one game. Since you started out with losers, cheer for all the picks to lose. It makes one feel better about next week when he loses all of this weeks picks. It also helps in your case to have won the past couple weeks so it isn't "your money" you are losing, it's the casino's.
Quote: NokTangit isn't "your money" you are losing, it's the casino's.
sigh!!!
this is the mentality that keeps the lights on.
Quote: NokTangThanks again for posting real cards. We do enjoy and appreciate it.
As for this week, well sometimes it's better to lose all your picks than to be leveraged on one game. Since you started out with losers, cheer for all the picks to lose. It makes one feel better about next week when he loses all of this weeks picks. It also helps in your case to have won the past couple weeks so it isn't "your money" you are losing, it's the casino's.
Yeah, it was a massacre. Bills, Panthers, Jets, Falcons. The Falcons were -2.5 and closed at -5 in some places. What could go wrong? I also had some Syracuse +12.5 which closed at +9.5. That lost too.
But, I found this much less disappointing than missing a big score by one team.
Quote: GWAEsigh!!!
this is the mentality that keeps the lights on.
Tell that to the NYSE mate. These gambling pools are chicken feed compared to Wall Street.
Quote: NokTangTell that to the NYSE mate. These gambling pools are chicken feed compared to Wall Street.
yes that may be true but I was just meaning that once you win it is your money, which I know you know. It hurts no less just because you won the money from them in the first place.
As usual, click on the card for a larger image.
Hot Plays:
Rams +7.5
Buf +7.5
Warm Plays:
Atl +4.5
TB +10.5
Bal +3.5
Jags +6.5
KC +6.5
Wash +7.5
Later, there's Georgia Tech. They are +1.5 on the cards and -2.5 in real life. Hopefully that's the "real" number and there isn't a similar swing back right before the game.
Also, I've noticed that including a couple college sides seems to prevent heat. I've only had bets declined or processed slowly with all pro sides.
Hot Plays:
Rams +7.5 -- W
Buf +7.5 -- W
Warm Plays:
Atl +4.5 -- L
TB +10.5 -- W
Bal +3.5 -- L
Jags +6.5 -- L
KC +6.5 -- W
Wash +7.5 -- ? (Monday night game)
Quote: RigondeauxThis was my best week, thanks to some college plays. I luckily passed on Bal and the Jags. By the time the Bal line really picked up steam, I was in LA, fortunately. Hit 3 5 teamers and a 3 teamer chicken bet. If freakin' ATL had covered, I would have hit a 10 teamer!
Congratulations on winning the three you did. That is the painful thing about these things is that hitting all but one is just as good or bad as hitting none. It is especially painful when you miss the one by a half point only.
However, keep the faith and you'll be rewarded down the road.
Quote: bigfoot66I played a lot of cards that included the Browns and hit a 4 teamer (Browns +1.5, Bills +7.5, Chiefs +6.5, Chargers -6.5) The game time line was Browns-1 and the line on the card was Browns +1.5. I know it didn't cross 3 or 7 but I figured 2.5 points was good enough. That said, I got to thinking that maybe moving from +1.5 to -1 might not be all that big of a move since ties are basically impossible (right, Donovan McNabb?). Thoughts?
According to my alternate point spread calculator, if the fair line is -1, and you're getting +1.5, the probability of winning is 51.13%. That is not a big move. If you're short on picks it might be worthy to pad a card but I wouldn't make that one a priority.
Click for larger image.
The Treasure Island limited me to just one card for $50, despite presenting only three. Therefore, I will no longer bother to scan and display their cards.
Quote: GWAEthat is amazing how much these places are sweating these cards. Why do they even bother offering them?
They hope that they get square action only.
Bears +3.5
Dolphins +3.5
Bengals -6.5
Patriots -2.5
Buccs +3.5
Raiders +7.5
Panthers +7.5
Quote: WizardWeek 6 plays:
Bears +3.5
Dolphins +3.5
Bengals -6.5
Patriots -2.5
Buccs +3.5
Raiders +7.5
Panthers +7.5
Thanks Wiz
I'm all over this.
Will be in downtown Vegas Sat nite to lay down some parlay bets.
This low roller is going for it.
100 invested into 5 20 dollar bets, 5 team parlay bets using different combinations of the above picks.
PHI -2.5 is interesting. I could certainly see the line go to -3.
Last week I was surprised to see ATL +4.5 as one of the warm picks and a couple of weeks ago Jets +8.5 as well. Last week on sunday pinacle had the ATL at +4.5 and bodog had them at +4. I'm just wondering why you decided ATL and Jets might be a good bet? Neither crossed the 3 or 7 and I think they were both away games. If they were home dogs it might be different.
Quote: z2newtonWizard,
Last week I was surprised to see ATL +4.5 as one of the warm picks and a couple of weeks ago Jets +8.5 as well. Last week on sunday pinacle had the ATL at +4.5 and bodog had them at +4. I'm just wondering why you decided ATL and Jets might be a good bet? Neither crossed the 3 or 7 and I think they were both away games. If they were home dogs it might be different.
At the time I said ATL +4.5 the market line was probably +3.5 or +4. With the Jets, the market line was probably +7.5 at the time. Please keep in mind that lines shift. The later you can get your bets in, the greater your advantage. However, it is also harder to get the cards in the closer you get to Sunday morning.
Quote: z2newtonWizard,
Last week I was surprised to see ATL +4.5 as one of the warm picks and a couple of weeks ago Jets +8.5 as well. Last week on sunday pinacle had the ATL at +4.5 and bodog had them at +4. I'm just wondering why you decided ATL and Jets might be a good bet? Neither crossed the 3 or 7 and I think they were both away games. If they were home dogs it might be different.
I will let Mike give his own answer to your question, but here is my input...
Regarding the ATL pick, I would not put too much stock into any one sports book's line, but instead look at what the market as a whole believes the correct line and price should be. For that, I look to the consensus lines posted on Vegas Insider. Last Sunday morning, the consensus line on ATL was +4 at -110. Being able to bet them at +4.5 gives you a 51.6% probability of winning...just a bit better than 50/50, thus a "warm" pick by Mike.
That said, I would not (and did not) add that pick to my 5 team parlays. To break even against the house edge on a 5 leg parlay, each pick needs to have an advantage of about 52.5% on average. Adding ATL at 51.6% to the parlay card will pull down the overall advantage of other teams on the ticket - such as the Rams from last Sunday where the market at game time said +4.5 was fair, but some cards had them listed at +7.5...a 60.7% advantage. There were too many other good options last weekend to bet ATL.
Also keep in mind that this is pure value betting, not handicapping. You are taking advantage of differences in the betting lines between the half point cards and the fair market lines, and placing bets with whichever way the difference works in your favor. Factors like home and away don't come into play when deciding who to bet. Of course, if your handicapping skills are better than the market as a whole, by all means add that to your betting strategy for an even larger edge.
One last point...the half point cards come out on Thursday and Mike posts his picks on Friday, but the market continues to move and adjust all the way until game time. Thus, what Mike posts as an advantage on Friday may no longer have an edge by kickoff. In fact, it is possible the advantage could even go negative on you. Ideally, you should be making your picks and placing your bets as close to kickoff as possible.
Quote: KeeneoneThe LSU vs Florida line has flipped: FLA -1.5
The back up Florida quarterback, soon to have been the starter, was reinstated and the sexual battering/rape charges never filed. However, the coach said he won't play this weekend. I'm surprised this somewhat neutral news would move the line. Is there any other news?
Quote: NokTangThe back up Florida quarterback, soon to have been the starter, was reinstated and the sexual battering/rape charges never filed. However, the coach said he won't play this weekend. I'm surprised this somewhat neutral news would move the line. Is there any other news?
I have no other news or data to help with this game. I just wanted to mention the line change on the parlay cards....
Some of them were just stupid. Like Alabama, which hasn't moved much and which would be a big side on all the square cards. Others were small advantages to the player. None of the moves were really that big.
Part of this might be the hot college sides crushing last week. I went 8-0 in college, though, unfortunately, I just sprinkle in a few college games usually. So I didn't make that much, but someone else could have.
Quote: WizardBuccs +3.5 was a huge card killer this week. All the other morning games survived. Only one card left standing that didn't have TB but it still needs Bears +3.5 and Oak +7.5.
Bucs killed all but one of my cards.
All my cards dead anyway.
It seems to me alot Packer fans in town.
Got my free football square at the Golden Gate for late game today. Looking forward to that.
Some 4 and even 3 teamers can help you stay afloat, unless those miss too, of course.
Quote: WizardOnly one card left standing that didn't have TB but it still needs Bears +3.5 and Oak +7.5.
How do you spell ka-ching?
Quote: RigondeauxBut that Buccs game killed a lot.
Yup, they were the only loss on several of my cards, all five and six teamers. I'd have crushed William Hill had they covered. The books in general that put Panthers +7.5 on their cards would have likely taken a huge beating. Some chose to go with Bengals -6.5, which caused my single TI and Golden Nugget tickets to also lose.
that was my killer hehe
Quote: WizardAt the time I said ATL +4.5 the market line was probably +3.5 or +4. With the Jets, the market line was probably +7.5 at the time. Please keep in mind that lines shift. The later you can get your bets in, the greater your advantage. However, it is also harder to get the cards in the closer you get to Sunday morning.
Thanks wizard. I hit 3 of my 5 cards. Two 4 teamers and one 5 teamer. I realize the lines move I was just wondering about your thought process like the moneyline was out of wack with the spread etc.
Quote: FunkyDoctorFactors like home and away don't come into play when deciding who to bet.
I disagree. Stanford Wongs book shows home dogs beat the spread 52.7% of the time.
Quote: z2newtonThanks wizard. I hit 3 of my 5 cards. Two 4 teamers and one 5 teamer.
What did the 4 and 5 teamers pay?
Quote:I realize the lines move I was just wondering about your thought process like the moneyline was out of wack with the spread etc.
For the half point parlay cards I care about the spread only. If I felt the money line was good compared to the spread, then I'd put in a money line bet.
Quote:I disagree. Stanford Wongs book shows home dogs beat the spread 52.7% of the time.
I would agree that dogs significantly outperform favorites. However, I have more data than Stanford did at the time of publication, and it shows there is not a significant difference between home and away dogs in the NFL. In college, home dogs do outperform away dogs.
Quote: WizardWhat did the 4 and 5 teamers pay?
I did $20 cards at william hill. 13 and 26 for 1. I put them in saturday evening.
Quote: z2newtonI did $20 cards at william hill. 13 and 26 for 1. I put them in saturday evening.
William Hill pays 25 for 1 on a five teamer.
Here are the week 7 cards from William Hill and South Point.
Click on image for larger version.
Rampart took only two cards this time. William Hill didn't like it when I picked college games with a significant line movement and rejected quite a few. Unlike most places, they did't cut me off at the first one they didn't like, but cherry picked through my whole stack. I first had SOOPOO try to put ten and eight got rejected, for too many college games. Then I redid mine, to not be so greedy, and they took about 75% of them.
Hot plays:
Virginia +3.5
BYU -9.5
Panthers +7.5
Falcons +7.5
Warm plays:
Minnesota -12.5
Cal +7.5
Ohio St. -19.5
Notre Dame +11.5
Bengals +3.5
Dolphins +3.5
Seahawks -6.5
Texans +3.5
Quote: tooncestdcWilliam Hill in Reno/Tahoe pays 26 for 1 on a 5 teamer and 52 for 1 on a six teamer, I believe, but only 25 for 1 in Vegas.
Really?! That is bizarre.
