Half Point Parlay Cards
45, 88, 190, 375, 850, 1600, 3000/50.
I am surprised that they did not change the 850.
Even a casual bettor has to be severely mathematically impaired to buy a single 9-leg card rather than splitting his stake in half and buying two 10-leg cards.
If correct ---@!$&Quote: AxiomOfChoiceFYI, the payouts for the mgm premium parlay card on WoO are not correct. They must have reduced the payouts since you made the page. .
(note that these are "to one" payouts, not "for one")
They heard you were coming, you announced it, IT'S ALL YOUR FAULT.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAbsolutely correct.
(note that these are "to one" payouts, not "for one")
That's what happens when the Wiz wins a couple of bets. Word gets around.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceFYI, the payouts for the mgm premium parlay card on WoO are not correct. They must have reduced the payouts since you made the page. They are now (starting at 6):
45, 88, 190, 375, 850, 1600, 3000/50.
I am surprised that they did not change the 850.
Even a casual bettor has to be severely mathematically impaired to buy a single 9-leg card rather than splitting his stake in half and buying two 10-leg cards.
It appears that MGM has also cut their payouts on their 2.5 point teaser cards. The new pay schedule (starting at 4 legs) is:
5, 9, 15, 20, 32, 50, 80, 125, 190, 300, 450, 700
These are all "to-1" pays and not "for-1".
The WoO Teaser page still has the old numbers.
Hot picks:
Colts -6.5
Bengals -6.5
Steelers +3.5
SF -2.5
At both the Suncoast and Rampart I presented about ten tickets for $50 each. Both places cut me off after four bets after the much-dreaded phone call came in.
I'll update my parlay card page with the depressed MGM payoffs.
Quote: Wizard
At both the Suncoast and Rampart I presented about ten tickets for $50 each. Both places cut me off after four bets after the much-dreaded phone call came in.
This is disgusting conduct by these properties. They should be boycotted and in fact, are by me. Afraid of a stack of $50.usd wagers on parlay cards? This isn't what Las Vegas was built upon...They should face a criminal charge of "impersonating a casino".
I can see and view the cards in the link this week. Thanks for any adjustments you made. We enjoy playing them for fun.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAbsolutely correct.
(note that these are "to one" payouts, not "for one")
Anybody want to play the Canadian Lottery version of this bet .... SPORTS SELECT
sure beats the payouts offered by the Lottery people in Canada
How to Win
If all of your picks are correct, you win. There are also subsidiary prizes for correctly predicting nine out of 10, 10 out of 11, 10 out of 12, or 11 out of 12 games.
Correct Predictions Hockey/Baseball Payouts Football/Basketball Payouts
1* correct pays 1.25 x wager ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.25 x wager
all 2 correct pays 2 x wager ......................... 2.5 x wager
all 3 correct pays 4 x wager .................... 5 x wager
all 4 correct pays 8 x wager .................. 9 x wager
all 5 correct pays 15 x wager...................... 16 x wager
all 6 correct pays 30 x wager................... 30 x wager
all 7 correct pays 50 x wager .................. 50 x wager
all 8 correct pays 90 x wager................. 90 x wager
all 9 correct pays 150 x wager ............... 150 x wager
all 10 correct pays 200 x wager .............. 200 x wager
all 11 correct pays 400 x wager .............. 400 x wager
all 12 correct pays 500 x wager ................ 500 x wager
9/10 correct pays 10 x wager 10 x wager
10/11 correct pays 15 x wager 15 x wager
10/12 correct pays 5 x wager 5 x wager
11/12 correct pays 20 x wager 20 x wager
*Only applies if all but one of the games you predicted were cancelled, considered not completed or deemed deleted because the game commenced or was completed prior to your wager being made, leaving one game which you predicted correctly. A refund is paid if all games predicted are cancelled, considered not completed or deemed deleted.
Play POINT SPREAD by COMBO PLAY.
Download the Playbook for more info!
POINT SPREAD Tips
You can only select games from the same sport.
For all sports except Hockey, final POINT SPREAD results include all extra play. For Hockey, final results include overtime but do not include shootouts.
Because it's a little more difficult to predict football and basketball, the prizes for two, three, four, and five picks are slightly higher for those sports than they are for hockey and baseball.
POINT SPREAD prizes are subject to an aggregate maximum daily limit of $1 million. See the official Game Conditions and Prize Structure Statements for more details
http://sportselect.wclc.com/POINTSPREAD-Standard-Display-on-Page/POINT-SPREAD-2.htm
Quote: WizardRams +1.5 and Vikings +10.5 were big card killers this week. I have one ticket only that survived the morning games. It is a six-leg that still needs KC +4.5 and Pit +3.5.
Wow, since your picks helped me last week, I went exactly with a 4 team parlay Colts, Bengals, SF and Pitt.
Of course not in Vegas so did a 4 team parlay on Bovada and not getting your 1/2 points.
Having fun, Colts and Bengals covered, SF so far covering but still a ways to go.
Thanks Wiz:-)
No, I am not hedging this time.
Go Steelers, I think the Steelers will win. Its been that kind of weekend for you :-)
Good! I dislike the Steelers so I'll be rooting for a 20-17 Carolina win.Quote: WizardNo, I am not hedging this time.
Quote: AZDuffmanSorry to see you took the Steelers. They will likely lose 20-3.
Hmm, just put some money on Carolina 2 min before kickoff.
Hope you are right AZ
Quote: teddysGood! I dislike the Steelers so I'll be rooting for a 20-17 Carolina win.
The spread is Carolina -3.5 so for the love of God root for a 21-17 win!
Quote: terapinedHmm, just put some money on Carolina 2 min before kickoff.
Hope you are right AZ
Maybe I will bet higher than a flea eventually. Trying to grind the free $100 Bovada gave me to a half decent roll. Built it to $400, so keeping to the 1-2% of bankroll rule.
But still:
"It's not if you win or lose instead,
Its whether or not you beat the spread!"
Quote: IbeatyouracesWhy not make it easy and root for a blow out?
45-10 :-)
If they do too bad then the good lines go up in smoke.
Don't make the new management wonder if we are sharps or not :-)
Do you actually sit and put little W's on your tickets, or is that just the sake of the forum members?Quote: WizardOne leg left to go!
No, I am not hedging this time.
Quote: AxelWolfDo you actually sit and put little W's on your tickets, or is that just the sake of the forum members?
Yes, they are actually on the ticket. I never thought about it, but it is probably mostly for my benefit. Makes it more fun.
Quote: kenarmanSteelers 30 Panthers 13 with just over 6 minutes to go. Looking good Mike
Thanks. Despite only one winning ticket, I managed to only bet eight, so another good week for half point parlay cards.
For all the people that have been bashing me for selling out their Email address, I take some pride for creating a forum where good plays like this can be openly discussed. Hopefully other forum members have been riding my coattails and winning with me.
Quote: WizardOne leg left to go!
No, I am not hedging this time.
So if I was into counterfeiting what would be the odds of me getting away with making a copy of your ticket with the correct bar code and all and cashing it before you get there?
I'm thinking a nice way to "hedge" these is with some teasers since many of these numbers will be in desirable spots, including Chicago from +2.5 to +8.5.
Quote: FunkyDoctorCongrats on the nice win today Mike. Good luck getting ANY bets in at Rampart this week! ;-)
Thanks! I think I'll put in my bets in the evening this week, to not run into the supervisor who restricted me to four last week. If not for that, I probably would have won a lot more, by the way.
Quote: coilmanSo if I was into counterfeiting what would be the odds of me getting away with making a copy of your ticket with the correct bar code and all and cashing it before you get there?
In the unlikely event it fools both the machine and writer, when I present the real ticket they will be able to play back the video to see who cashed the fake one. The authorities here would not take too kindly to anybody cashing counterfeit tickets. You'd be looking at years in state prison. If you're still thinking about it, say "hello" to OJ Simpson if you see him.
Quote: RigondeauxSFs vanishing act kept me from becoming independently wealthy, but I have one $25 5 teamer that hit and a few more that will with the Jets. Loving the coattail ride!
I'm thinking a nice way to "hedge" these is with some teasers since many of these numbers will be in desirable spots, including Chicago from +2.5 to +8.5.
I see Pitts -8, which is a good tease to -2. Maybe you can find TB +1.5 and tease it to +7.5. Good idea as long as the entire ticket is Wong teasers and you get good odds.
Glad you're enjoying the ride!
Quote: strictlyAPjust because im curious- when they stop you what stops you from having your wife or friend put in more- why do you put them all in at once and not one then maybe an hour later another and so on- im sure there are easty answeres for this im just curious
You can ask Mission what happened when I asked him and his ex-wife to do that. I'll just tell you. With Mission the supervisor barked at him "Don't ever come in here with a round robin again!" and then threw all the tickets in the trash. With Mission's wife at the time I sent her to a buddy of mine as I watched from afar. He thumbed through them and said he wasn't taking any. When she asked why, he just said, "You can go now." I'm sure Mission could tell the story better.
In general, I think they can sense when a beard, who doesn't know a parlay card from a keno ticket, is putting them in, and they don't like it.
Quote: WizardI see Pitts -8, which is a good tease to -2. Maybe you can find TB +1.5 and tease it to +7.5. Good idea as long as the entire ticket is Wong teasers and you get good odds.
Glad you're enjoying the ride!
You can ask Mission what happened when I asked him and his ex-wife to do that. I'll just tell you. With Mission the supervisor barked at him "Don't ever come in here with a round robin again!" and then threw all the tickets in the trash. With Mission's wife at the time I sent her to a buddy of mine as I watched from afar. He thumbed through them and said he wasn't taking any. When she asked why, he just said, "You can go now." I'm sure Mission could tell the story better.
In general, I think they can sense when a beard, who doesn't know a parlay card from a keno ticket, is putting them in, and they don't like it.
I don't think we ever heard that story. Damn it Mission, how dare you leave out good stories in your TR.
How dare you not read his trip report. ;+)Quote: GWAEI don't think we ever heard that story. Damn it Mission, how dare you leave out good stories in your TR.
Quote: mipletHow dare you not read his trip report. ;+)
hmmm I did start reading that report but somehow didn't finish. Damn it me. 3 lashings with a wet noodle.
BTW, what is a round robbin?
Quote: GWAEhmmm I did start reading that report but somehow didn't finish. Damn it me. 3 lashings with a wet noodle.
Here is the portion about running parlay cards for me.
Quote: MissionI ran some sports bets for Wizard, he can say whether it was Fremont or Binion's but the conversation was as follows:
"We don't accept Round Robins, here, buddy."
"What's a Round Robin? I don't understand what you mean. I'm just taking a shot! The D just took the same bet!"
"Well, this is a Round Robin, and don't ever come in here and try this again," then he ripped the bet cards in half and threw them in the trash.
"Scared to bet me? Cowards!"
I left. I was able to get bets down everywhere else, except Four Queens, but that's because one of the games had just started.
Quote:BTW, what is a round robbin?
It is running a bunch of teams through the combinatorial function. For example, Mission tried to put those ticket in at the Fremont, which has a good 5-let parlay card, paying 25 for 1. Suppose there are eight good games. Then were would be 8!/(3!*5!) = 56 different ways to fill out the parlay cards with 5 teams out of 8.
Yikes.Quote: WizardHere is the portion about running parlay cards for me.
It is running a bunch of teams through the combinatorial function. For example, Mission tried to put those ticket in at the Fremont, which has a good 5-let parlay card, paying 25 for 1. Suppose there are eight good games. Then were would be 8!/(3!*5!) = 56 different ways to fill out the parlay cards with 5 teams out of 8.
Simply put its like boxing horses in a race
mixing up teams so you are not stuck with the same exact picks on each card
Parlay A
Cowboys -2.5
Jets -7
&
Colts +6
Parlay B
Cowboys -2.5
Jets -7
&
Bears -2
Parlay A
Cowboys -2.5
Jets -7
&
Packers +3.5
Quote: GWAEI am surprised they don't like that. If you lose with team A then you kill a good percentage of cards. I guess if you get all 8 right then you are rich.
That is what happened to me at the Suncoast in week 2 -- hit all of them.
The issue at play is the casinos know what we know. They must still offer them because they get enough square action to offset the people that pick only the hot sides. However, casinos never like any advantage play, no matter how small of a percentage of their gross gaming action it is.
In this case, I don't think it is a round robin they object to, as those are welcomed in keno, but the teams in the round robin.
Quote: mwalz9Just catching up on this. Good stuff. My question though is, how do you determine Bills +3.5 "is the strongest play"?
I don't remember what the line was on the game, but if it was Bill +3 -110, then getting that half extra point is very valuable off of 3, the most common margin of victory in the NFL by far. You can see from my page alternate point spreads that if a spread is fair at +3, then you have a 54.8% chance of winning at +3.5.
When you compound that extra chance of winning over many games, it significantly increases your probability of winning.
For example, on a random 6-teamer, the probability of winning would be (0.5)^6 = 1 in 64.
If we just assume a 53% chance of winning each leg, with the extra half points, the probability of winning a six teamer is 1 in 45. At the South Point and William Hill casinos a 6-teamer pays 50 for 1, for a player advantage of 10.8%. Try getting that in video poker.
Quote: Wizard
If we just assume a 53% chance of winning each leg, with the extra half points, the probability of winning a six teamer is 1 in 45. At the South Point and William Hill casinos a 6-teamer pays 50 for 1, for a player advantage of 10.8%. Try getting that in video poker.
There seems to be something wrong with that logic. With the "round robin" are you reducing it down to a player advantage on what should be an even money payout to one(the overall wagered amount) where said player has a 10.8% advantage?
Quote: Wizard
You can ask Mission what happened when I asked him and his ex-wife to do that. I'll just tell you. With Mission the supervisor barked at him "Don't ever come in here with a round robin again!" and then threw all the tickets in the trash. With Mission's wife at the time I sent her to a buddy of mine as I watched from afar. He thumbed through them and said he wasn't taking any. When she asked why, he just said, "You can go now." I'm sure Mission could tell the story better.
In general, I think they can sense when a beard, who doesn't know a parlay card from a keno ticket, is putting them in, and they don't like it.
I resent that, I might not know a parlay card from a horse racing ticket, but you can bet your bottom dollar I can spot a Keno ticket from a mile away!
44-53-54-55-63-64-65....ONE TIME, BABY!!!!
Happened, too, at Cannery. $0.02 won $140.00 on that particular card.
Here's my take on it just a few days after the incident at Fremont from earlier in this thread:
Quote:For anyone who doubts whether or not there can be any heat on these half-point parlay cards, as I related in my trip report:
I went over to Fremont from the Chicago Brew Pub at Four Queens looking to run a few hundred dollars worth of half-point parlay cards for Wizard. The guy whose job it is to run the tickets through the machine looked at a few of the tickets, I hadn't said anything, and looks back up at me and says, "Excuse me."
I nodded and he walked over to a guy who I don't remember much about except that he was bigger, perhaps my height, with facial hair.
The second guy said, "We don't accept Round Robins, here, buddy."
I replied, "What's a Round Robin? I don't understand what you mean. I'm just taking a shot! The D just took the same bet!"
He reiterated, "Well, this is a Round Robin, and don't ever come in here and try this again," then he ripped the bet cards in half and threw them in the trash.
"Scared to bet me? Cowards!"
That's it, they couldn't have known me because I had never made a Sports Bet there in my entire life.
I think the thing that surprised Wizard the most was that he was able to rip that thick stack of cards in half.
I don't seem to have much luck at the Fremont. I've never even received any offers from there even though I was there more days (both trips) and my ADT is probably higher there than at Gold Coast, to which I only went once, and I still get regular offers from Gold Coast.
Quote: NokTangThere seems to be something wrong with that logic. With the "round robin" are you reducing it down to a player advantage on what should be an even money payout to one(the overall wagered amount) where said player has a 10.8% advantage?
I'm not sure I'm following your argument why I'm in error.
Quote: FroggerHow hard is it for casinos to update lines on parlay cards these days? Couldn't each card be printed on demand rather than early in the week?
I suppose they could do that. However, people might hoard the old cards and turn them in late. I don't think it would be worth the trouble to do multiple printings.
Quote: NokTangThere seems to be something wrong with that logic. With the "round robin" are you reducing it down to a player advantage on what should be an even money payout to one(the overall wagered amount) where said player has a 10.8% advantage?
I don't know if this helps or not, but one method to determine the player (or house) advantage is with this formula:
(Amount risked x -1) x (chance of losing) + (payout when you do win) x (chance of winning)
It's well known that the house edge in double zero roulette is 5.26%. To see how that number was arrived at, try the formula:
-1 x (37/38) + 35 x 1/38 = -0.0526 = -5.26%
The probability of winning a 6-leg parlay is the product of each individual probability. If we calcualte that to be approximately 53% with the extra half points, that's (53/100)^6 which is .02216. (This is approximately the same as 44 to 1.)
So, now we just enter the numbers in our formula. (If a 6-teamer pays 50 FOR 1 that's the same as 49 TO 1.)
-1 x (1 - .02216) + 49 x .02216 = +0.108 = +10.8%
So this means each individual parlay card played has a player advantage of +10.8%. (I think.)
I'm surprised they even have paper cards nowadays and not all betting terminals and phone apps. Then they could just change everything instantly.Quote: WizardI suppose they could do that. However, people might hoard the old cards and turn them in late. I don't think it would be worth the trouble to do multiple printings.
