Half Point Parlay Cards
Quote: mcallister3200Did you just quote yourself?
It was relevant to my last post. The line had moved again since my previous post.
Texans -2.5
Bears +7.5
Eagles +3.5
NYJ +8.5
Quote: WizardTexans -2.5 and NYJ +8.5 are looking very strong. If Chic +7.5 wins the Sunday night game, then I'll be in the position of being tempted to break my own commandment and hedge on Phil +3.5 as the last remaining leg.
Thou shalt not hedge!
Quote: WizardTexans -2.5 and NYJ +8.5 are looking very strong. If Chic +7.5 wins the Sunday night game, then I'll be in the position of being tempted to break my own commandment and hedge on Phil +3.5 as the last remaining leg.
Man, the line is right on 3. You are in such good shape. If there are no late afternoon surprises you have a half point on a 3pt line and a half point on the favored side of a 7pt line. I am jealous.
Quote: rainmanThou shalt not hedge!
Let me elaborate. There are two exceptions when you may hedge:
1. The hedge bet itself is neutral or a good bet.
2. Life changing amounts of money are at stake, where expected happiness is greater hedging. This is the concept at play in buying real insurance.
In my case, I'm two legs away from winning about half my tickets. I found SF -7.5 +120 at 5dimes, which I think is a neutral to slightly positive bet, considering the market. So, given exception #1, I bet about 22% of my potential win on the parlay cards. It also serves as a hedge against a +270 money line bet on the Bears.
Quote: beachbumbabsYou should not hedge. There: I said it.
You have to say it in King James English, please.
Quote: WizardAll's well will end will if Eagles +3.5 covers. But, should I hedge again?
I consulted with an expert about you hedging again. All he would tell me was,
"It's not whether you win or lose; It's whether or not you had a good bet"
Only did 1 parlay 20 bucks taking the Wiz's picks and made 1 change. 4 teams took Carolina and Bears which won. Instead of Vikings, took NE because line had moved to -6 and 1/2 card still -3.5 so I figured I'd take advantage of that.
Eagles win, I win my bet
Go Eagles.
(posted from starbucks freemont st outside golden nugget :-)
Quote: WizardAll's well will end will if Eagles +3.5 covers. But, should I hedge again?
I would consider it since you should only have to lay three points now with the colts and the colts winning by 3 is a probable outcome. That half point onto 3 is huge.
Quote: DRichI would consider it since you should only have to lay three points now with the colts and the colts winning by 3 is a probable outcome. That half point onto 3 is huge.
I agree, getting the three at -110 is an acceptable hedge since you can get the Win/Push combo on the most likely outcome. This assumes that you think 3 is the correct number. If you think the Eagles are still the side at +3 -110 I would wait and see if the line drops or look for hedging opportunities during the game.
Quote: WizardI've got Min +3.5 on lots of cards, unfortunately. Score is 7-24 at the half, as I write this.
The quote above is the argument for not placing your 1/2 point parlay bets until just before game time on Sunday, even though it mean dragging your ass out of bed early in the morning for those of us in the west.
You are only getting an advantage if you are getting more or giving fewer points than the market says is fair at kickoff. A bet on Friday getting 3.5 points when the market says I should only get 3 seems like an advantage. But if the line moves to 3.5 (or worse, to 4) by game time, I have lost my advantage or perhaps am even playing now at a disadvantage.
If you find a nice point and a half discrepancy with the current line on Friday, don't think you are locking it in by running to the window and placing your bet. The spreads on the 1/2 point parlay cards cast in stone the bets you will be able to place. You will be placing the same bet on Sunday as can on Friday. The only thing that changes is whether you have an advantage or not. So don't lock yourself in until game time when you know you have an advantage.
The only reason I can see to bet early is if there is an error of some new information so significant that you think the book may no longer take bets on a particular team. Then go ahead and lock it in. But just yesterday I was still able to bet the Pats, giving 2 less points, and the Bills, getting an extra point and a half, than what the market said was fair.
Quote: FunkyDoctorThe quote above is the argument for not placing your 1/2 point parlay bets until just before game time on Sunday, even though it mean dragging your ass out of bed early in the morning for those of us in the west.
You are only getting an advantage if you are getting more or giving fewer points than the market says is fair at kickoff. A bet on Friday getting 3.5 points when the market says I should only get 3 seems like an advantage. But if the line moves to 3.5 (or worse, to 4) by game time, I have lost my advantage or perhaps am even playing now at a disadvantage.
If you find a nice point and a half discrepancy with the current line on Friday, don't think you are locking it in by running to the window and placing your bet. The spreads on the 1/2 point parlay cards cast in stone the bets you will be able to place. You will be placing the same bet on Sunday as can on Friday. The only thing that changes is whether you have an advantage or not. So don't lock yourself in until game time when you know you have an advantage.
The only reason I can see to bet early is if there is an error of some new information so significant that you think the book may no longer take bets on a particular team. Then go ahead and lock it in. But just yesterday I was still able to bet the Pats, giving 2 less points, and the Bills, getting an extra point and a half, than what the market said was fair.
By kickoff, the line had moved back. At Pinnacle, Min was the favored side of +3.5. i wrote about this earlier in the thread.
Quote: FunkyDoctorPinnacle is just one data point in the market. I look at the market as a whole and don't focus too hard on any one book. Sunday morning the market was still saying Min +5.5.
Pinnacle has the sharpest lines out there, though.
NE -3.5 was up to +120 by kickoff. If you could get Min +5.5 at the same time, that is a great middle. If you could get Min +5 +something that is an even better middle :)
Quote: 1arrowheaddrPinnacle is BY FAR the best data point. The limit on NFL is 75k per bet, and if you wait 10 seconds you can bet it again. Essentially there is no limit to how much can be bet. Compare that to places in Vegas who will turn down $500 if it's "on the hot side" or "you look too smart for us".
Will they really turn down $500? I have bet thousands with no problem.
I probably don't look smart enough. Given my results, getting turned down would be +EV.
Quote: WizardI've got eight parlay cards that are still live and all depend on Eagles +3.5. Wish me positive variance.
All variance is positive :)
Are you hedging?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAll variance is positive :)
Good point. What should I say if I don't believe in luck? How about "Wish me good variance."
Quote:Are you hedging?
I must confess that I did a partial hedge.
0-2 on hedges. Both comebacks!!!
Two words: Silver platter
Quote: teddysWHY DID YOU HEDGE?! ;)
Because I'm a wuss.
Quote: Wizard
Two words: Silver platter
Because I'm a wuss.
LOL!
Quote: RigondeauxThanks again for sharing this play.
You're welcome. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Quote: WizardYou have to say it in King James English, please.
Thou shalt not hedgeth thine Eagles bet. I hopeth you listened.
Edit: Apparently not. But a sweet win nonetheless.
Also, as per your other thread about the Discovery Channel show, and the best way to turn $30 into $1000, I think you may have just proven your point that there are better ways than roulette. Your wagers were $40, rather than $30, but you did it 8 times for good measure. :)
Quote: kewljCongrats to you Mike. Well Done. Can I ask how many total tickets you bought to have those 8 alive? What was your total investment?
Also, as per your other thread about the Discovery Channel show, and the best way to turn $30 into $1000, I think you may have just proven your point that there are better ways than roulette. Your wagers were $40, rather than $30, but you did it 8 times for good measure. :)
Thanks. I put in 17 total in week 2.
While I feel this is one of the best and easiest advantage plays, I am trying to confine the Discovery Channel discussion to common bets you can find any any medium-sized casino.
I Thank Dj and his gay car for getting his ass up early and putting picks in, getting cards and stuff. Thanks to FD for doing all the other important crap. Thanks Mike for inspiring us to put more time in doing this.
PS. I hate you for publicizing this ☺.
40 bucks bet, 298 payout.
That was my only parlay.
Its been a profitable vegas trip for me.
Pai gow poker hit str flush 1 buck fortune 50 buck win
VP Double bonus hit AAAA.
Leaving vegas righ now sigh
http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/delaware-bettor-loses-100k-payday/story?id=25553609
The guy had about 20 hours between Sunday nights game ending and Monday's beginning. I wonder if he considered hopping a flight to Vegas and hedging. Maybe he didn't have an extra 50 grand.
Quote: kewljHere's the other side of last nights collapse or rally (depending on your circumstances).
http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/delaware-bettor-loses-100k-payday/story?id=25553609
The guy had about 20 hours between Sunday nights game ending and Monday's beginning. I wonder if he considered hopping a flight to Vegas and hedging. Maybe he didn't have an extra 50 grand.
That must have been a brutal second half for that guy. As you wrote, he probably didn't have 50K liquid to hedge. If it is any consolation, his loss was my gain.
Quote: WizardThat must have been a brutal second half for that guy. As you wrote, he probably didn't have 50K liquid to hedge. If it is any consolation, his loss was my gain.
Any consolation to who? The Delaware guy? Some how, I doubt the fact that you won is doing much for him right now. Lol.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIf anyone happens to have a half-point card for this week and would like to post a picture, it would be much appreciated.
They usually come out on Thursday. I plan to grab the Boyd and South Point cards tomorrow and post them.
