Half Point Parlay Cards
Quote: WizardIndeed, I will bet it again. The fact that three out of the last five Super Bowls have had safeties does not deter me. However, I will have a fresh look at the data, to see if there was an increase in safeties during the 2013 season. I'm also hoping to see better lines. I am hoping to lay only 6 to 1 this time.
Nice to dream. isn't it ? Will be closer to 10 to 1 than 6 to 1, I think !
Quote: WizardIndeed, I will bet it again. The fact that three out of the last five Super Bowls have had safeties does not deter me. However, I will have a fresh look at the data, to see if there was an increase in safeties during the 2013 season. I'm also hoping to see better lines. I am hoping to lay only 6 to 1 this time.
Do they limit you on prop bets like that to less than you would bet if you could, or is it only on the parlay cards they mess with you?
Quote: beachbumbabsDo they limit you on prop bets like that to less than you would bet if you could, or is it only on the parlay cards they mess with you?
I get limited on prop bets too.
Prop bets as well. They move the line real quick and back you off. Arizona Charlies used to have good prop bets with fair limits. Last year they were capped at 50 bucksQuote: beachbumbabsDo they limit you on prop bets like that to less than you would bet if you could, or is it only on the parlay cards they mess with you?
The market line on the Redskins was +3, and the cards had +3.5.
The market line on the Jets was -3, and the cards had -2.5.
The Giants were a soft play. They were +3 and some places +3.5 at others, and +3.5 on the cards.
You might ask about the Browns +10 and Atlanta +3. Those were not on most cards, evidently because they were unsure about Rogers starting for GB and also a late line set for the Browns, I don't know why. The exception is William Hill had the Browns +12.5 on the card.
I already posted the Boyd and Rampart cards. Here are the William Hill and Golden Nugget ones.
Here are my strongest plays:
Wash +3.5
NYJ -2.5
Bills +2.5
NYG +3.5
I've also got Titans and Browns money line.
Quote: Wizard
I've also got Titans and Browns money line.
Damn Wizard. The refs stole your Browns money line winner.
Sorry man.
Quote: KeyserSozeDamn Wizard. The refs stole your Browns money line winner.
Sorry man.
Two Pats touchdowns in two minutes?! Just goes to show the pain of betting on underdogs. My pain will be alleviated if the Titans win.
Quote: WizardTwo Pats touchdowns in two minutes?! Just goes to show the pain of betting on underdogs. My pain will be alleviated if the Titans win.
I don't play large + money lines anymore. Results like this (Browns/Pats) drive me crazy. I'd rather take +points.
I do occasionally play money lines of -200 to -300 (NFL only). I have been successful doing this, but the sample size is too small to determine if I have an advantage or not. A prolonged bad streak could change my view rather quickly.
Quote: WizardTwo Pats touchdowns in two minutes?! Just goes to show the pain of betting on underdogs. My pain will be alleviated if the Titans win.
Sorry for your bad week Wizard. I remember you had a pretty good week a little while back. I you had the 49ers or another moneyline winner.
Wishing you some early positive variance for next week.
Quote: PerditionWishing you some early positive variance for next week.
Thank you.
Thanks! This is extremely useful data!
I think that your tables have a display error though. You are showing a payout of 7 for the pick-3s, instead of a payout of 6.5. I assume that it's just automatically rounding or something. Anyway, a payout of 7 would be very nice indeed (no house edge even against random picks!) but, alas, that's not the case :) I'm specifically talking about your 3 Half-point parlay card tables: the random picker, the half-point picker, and the half-point off 3 and 7 picker.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI think that your tables have a display error though.
Thanks. I just fixed that in a couple places where I found that error.
Here is the week 15 William Hill card.
I put in ten cards at $50 each at 4:15 PM on Friday and they sailed right through the machine. I was very surprised. In retrospect, I should have filled some more out.
Plays on every card:
Falcons -6.5
Saints -5.5
Dolphins +2.5
Cards -2.5
Next week, I'm in Vegas and will be able to get real money down. I'm glad to read your were able to bet $500 this week. Perhaps I'll try for more since I'm not a known face.
Also nice to see they didn't bust your chops on playing the cards like they did before.
Why not wait until Sunday to bet these cards?
Why so early this week?
Do they ever take games "off" due to substantial line moves? Reprint new cards with updated point spreads?
Quote: KeyserSozeWhy not wait until Sunday to bet these cards?
First, because there are also college games, which are on Saturday. The college season is winding down, so the one above didn't have many college games. Still, you could argue that they could put them out on Friday instead of Thursday. I think they are trying to find a happy medium between maximizing the period of time they can sell the cards and minimizing risk. Putting them out on Friday wouldn't allow the public enough time to bet them.
Quote: KeyserSozeWhy so early this week?
I'm not sure I understand the question. They always put them out on Thursday, generally the afternoon.
Quote: KeyserSozeDo they ever take games "off" due to substantial line moves? Reprint new cards with updated point spreads?
They take games off, but don't reprint the cards. There will often be a sign saying, for example, "The Chargers/Broncos game is off for purposes of parlay and teaser cards." If a player bubbled that game in anyway, the card reader should reject it.
You made your bets at 4:15pm Friday. Why not wait until 9:00am Sunday?
If one believes the betting market is efficient, the sharpest line would be the closing line. If you wait until about one hour before kick off, you may have a greater advantage?
Quote: KeyserSozeYou made your bets at 4:15pm Friday. Why not wait until 9:00am Sunday?
The first reason is the longer you wait, the harder it is to get money down. Betting on the hot sides is one red flag. Putting them in on Sunday morning is another. The second reason is I flew into Vegas yesterday, so as long as I was by the airport I swung by the William Hill outlet at Hooters. Speaking of which, they still have attractive girls dealing 3-2 single-deck blackjack.
Quote:If one believes the betting market is efficient, the sharpest line would be the closing line. If you wait until about one hour before kick off, you may have a greater advantage?
I agree. The sports books know that too. Betting early gives some much-needed cover.
I now sometimes the discrepency is large and will likely remain..like on friday I see on william hill miami is plus 2.5///now its even...and I dont expect sunday morning to dissolve the advantage of getting the 2.5 points when betting off the board.
But other times totals and sides may change sunday morning. Even weather changes sometimes between sat night and sun morning.
If the 3 team card parlays payed exactly the same as off the board it would be less of an issue
Quote: LarrySBut wizard wouldnt you agree that for the average bettor, betting just a couple hundred.
For advantage players, I recommend using the Kelly Criterion to size your bets. Most advantage players have a large enough bankroll to be rebuffed at the window with what they want to bet, so it becomes a matter of getting down as much as you can.
Quote:..betting sunday AM is best, because you could weigh whether you are really getting value with an extra point here and there in exchange for receiving a lesser payout. Sometimes the extra half of a point or point you thought you were getting on the card dissapears by sunday morning...in which case you can do a 3 teamer off the board.
If you only want to bet a couple hundred, I would agree. If you want to bet a couple thousand, I would recommend betting earlier. I do not recommend off the board parlays at all.
TB +5.5
Falcons -6.5
Texas +5.5
Phil -4.5
Seattle -6.5. The point spread closed around -9 (crossing key number 7)
Buffalo -1.5. The point spread closed at -4 (crossing key number 3)
Miami +2.5. The closing number on this game had Miami as a -2.5 favorite)
All three of these games were winners on the parlay card. Would a sports book accept a card on Sunday morning with all three of these plays? Whatcha think Wizard?
Quote: KeyserSozeAll three of these games were winners on the parlay card. Would a sports book accept a card on Sunday morning with all three of these plays? Whatcha think Wizard?
Sure. They may not take a lot of them, especially at large bets, but they will always take at least two, in my experience, and from what I hear.
Quote: WizardSure. They may not take a lot of them, especially at large bets, but they will always take at least two, in my experience, and from what I hear.
That good to know. I'm in Vegas next week and I will try to find 3 or 4 key games and include them all on several 5 or 6 team parlays.
Quote: KeyserSozeThat good to know. I'm in Vegas next week and I will try to find 3 or 4 key games and include them all on several 5 or 6 team parlays.
I'd be happy to discuss what to play the McNugget challenge. I'll bring some cards from the Rampart. Hope to see you there.
Quote: WizardI'd be happy to discuss what to play the McNugget challenge. I'll bring some cards from the Rampart. Hope to see you there.
That's totally cool of you. I was hoping you would do us this favor. I'm a low roller, be making some small bets for myself( just a bunch of 10 dollar bets risking about 70), I'd place some bets for you if need any help. William Hill right at the D.
Any opinion on the 2 bowl games that day?
Buffalo vs San Diego St. kickoff 230pm, just off hand thinking Buffalo , cold weather, tougher players.
Tulane vs LA Lafayette 6pm
They back you off faster.Quote: LarrySWizard, can u please explain why its not suggested to bet off the board?
Quote: LarrySWizard, can u please explain why its not suggested to bet off the board?
Because you aren't getting any extra points.
Quote: WizardBecause you aren't getting any extra points.
I dont pretend to know more than anyone else but from my novice point of view I dont agree.
You are assumng that the number handed out by "the man" is handed down from god as being accurate based on reality. However its just probably accurate as a way to get equal action on each side of the number.
So is it possible to spot one or 2 games a week where the number is based more on public feeling rather than reality. Is it possible for "the man to fall into that trap either knowingly(in order to purposely or non purposely shine the luight on the wrong team) or unknowingly by muscalculation have an inaccurate point spread
Is it possibe to "find extra points" without viewing discrepancies on cards? Is it possilbe to look on the board and say "I think this ppint spread is overvalued by 2 points"???
And in doing so, is there an advantage to being able to have the flexibility to be a 2 team parlay off the board. rather than extend to 3?
Is it possible also that by finding a discrpency on the ticket, that the value on the ticket is now the correct value, and the number on the board is wrong. Meaning you are getting an advantage over the board...but no real value in winning because the card spread is just right.
Personally I think the board offers its own value, although not as obviousl as comparing numbers on a card.
If we are talking parlays, its best to play parlays where the bettor can take advantage of soft point spreads. I believe the betting market is efficient and the current point spread is the most difficult point spread to beat. In other words, yesterday's point spread is 'more beatable' than today's point spread.
If one feels they are sharp enough to beat the current point spread, I recommend they do it with flat bets, not parlays. Parlays have a much higher house edge, and if you are not getting any 'free points', I doubt anyone is sharp enough to win consistently betting off the board parlays.
Great thread and great discussions here. Love it!
Quote: AxelWolfThey back you off faster.
I don't think they would back off anyone attempting to bet an 'off the board' parlay. Unless the parlay is correlated.
Now, they will back you off for attempting to bet certain combinations on parlay cards.
Parlay cards are beatable. I don't believe 'off the board' parlays are beatable.
+1Quote: KeyserSozeI'm with the Wizard on this one.
If we are talking parlays, its best to play parlays where the bettor can take advantage of soft point spreads. I believe the betting market is efficient and the current point spread is the most difficult point spread to beat. In other words, yesterday's point spread is 'more beatable' than today's point spread.
If one feels they are sharp enough to beat the current point spread, I recommend they do it with flat bets, not parlays. Parlays have a much higher house edge, and if you are not getting any 'free points', I doubt anyone is sharp enough to win consistently betting off the board parlays.
Great thread and great discussions here. Love it!
Yes they will if a lot of action is being bet on a particular team.Quote: KeyserSozeI don't think they would back off anyone attempting to bet an 'off the board' parlay. Unless the parlay is correlated.
Now, they will back you off for attempting to bet certain combinations on parlay cards.
Parlay cards are beatable. I don't believe 'off the board' parlays are beatable.
you may find a book that has a few off number on the board. I know a few casinos that backed you off quick, Rampart was one.
Quote: KeyserSozeI don't think they would back off anyone attempting to bet an 'off the board' parlay. Unless the parlay is correlated.
Now, they will back you off for attempting to bet certain combinations on parlay cards.
Parlay cards are beatable. I don't believe 'off the board' parlays are beatable.
So are you saying that Billy Walters built his fortune playing parlay cards
I thought he bets flat
which I do alot off the board, and 'gamble" with 2 team parlays.
3.4.5 teamers are too much of a gamble for me
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAlso: why parlay? Just make individual bets off the board. If you have an edge, the last thing that you want to do is take on more variance for free.
totally agree
Quote: rudeboyoiIf you have an edge, its compounded on parlays.
Yeah but the variance also goes up so you can't bet as much.
Assuming that you are betting optimally (ie, Kelly Betting) you will make more money on 3 individual bets than on a parlay of 3 bets (assuming that the parlay odds are fair -- ie, multiplied). Even though your percent edge on each ticket will be lower, you will bet much more on each ticket and this will more than make up for it.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYeah but the variance also goes up so you can't bet as much.
Assuming that you are betting optimally (ie, Kelly Betting) you will make more money on 3 individual bets than on a parlay of 3 bets (assuming that the parlay odds are fair -- ie, multiplied). Even though your percent edge on each ticket will be lower, you will bet much more on each ticket and this will more than make up for it.
You're absolutely right.
Quote: LarrySSo are you saying that Billy Walters built his fortune playing parlay cards
I thought he bets flat
which I do alot off the board, and 'gamble" with 2 team parlays.
3.4.5 teamers are too much of a gamble for me
WHAT???
So by getting a difference of a point or 2 on a parlay card is not automatically "an advantage"....if the mans opinion is flawed.
2 EXAMPLES
Miami this week was on the card as a dog, but at gametime it was a fave by 2.5 sunday morning, My analysis said to me that miami could win the game outright so the parlay ticket with miami receiving points was "an advantage"
Now I am on record on another post saying I was heavily leaning towards STL covring NO for reasons that I listed. It seems 90 percent of the betting public was on NO. I think the parlay card was minus 6.5 NO as the fave. Lets say the line moved to -8.5.........wow...if I like NO...i better take the parlay card at -6.5 and get "the advantage". But to me its a phoney "advantage" minus 3.5 on the card vs minus 8.5 on the board wouldnt make me see this as an advantage play.
And then on top of that
on suday I only found 2 games that I thought were worth betting. Miami, and STl., I bet the both on ML and giving/tking the points. in 2 team parlays.
If I wanted to bet them on a card, I would have to find another game to bet. A game I would have to force myself to find. Not a good way to bet.
But off the board I can bet 2 teamers, or bet flat.
So my toughts in a nutshell is...just because there is a difference in the spread on the board vs on a ticket does not automatically make one or the other an advantage play. The first question that has to be asked is.....is the number the man put out valid to begin with....and go from there.
Quote: KeyserSozeBettors determine the point spread. Bookmakers just set the opener.
not really. The casinos do not take a poll of bettors before posting the initial number.
The casinos post the initial number and the public reacts to it.
the problem sometimes is that the initial number is not based on reality...its a faulty opinion....it happens....but the public takes that number as some sort of fact.
the number the man put out for new orleans was faulty from the beginning, and the public took it as an endorsement that NO was so much better than STL on the road....and they haommered money on NO.
I had:
Lions -5.5, Redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, steelers +3.5, jets +11.5
Lions -5.5, Redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, steelers +3.5, bears +.5
The difference in the fair line and the line I got turned a push into a win on jets +11.5.
