Half Point Parlay Cards
December 5th, 2013 at 2:10:11 PM
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Quote: WizardIndeed, I will bet it again. The fact that three out of the last five Super Bowls have had safeties does not deter me. However, I will have a fresh look at the data, to see if there was an increase in safeties during the 2013 season. I'm also hoping to see better lines. I am hoping to lay only 6 to 1 this time.
Nice to dream. isn't it ? Will be closer to 10 to 1 than 6 to 1, I think !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
December 5th, 2013 at 7:54:47 PM
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Quote: WizardIndeed, I will bet it again. The fact that three out of the last five Super Bowls have had safeties does not deter me. However, I will have a fresh look at the data, to see if there was an increase in safeties during the 2013 season. I'm also hoping to see better lines. I am hoping to lay only 6 to 1 this time.
Do they limit you on prop bets like that to less than you would bet if you could, or is it only on the parlay cards they mess with you?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 5th, 2013 at 7:56:55 PM
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Quote: beachbumbabsDo they limit you on prop bets like that to less than you would bet if you could, or is it only on the parlay cards they mess with you?
I get limited on prop bets too.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 5th, 2013 at 8:00:05 PM
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Prop bets as well. They move the line real quick and back you off. Arizona Charlies used to have good prop bets with fair limits. Last year they were capped at 50 bucksQuote: beachbumbabsDo they limit you on prop bets like that to less than you would bet if you could, or is it only on the parlay cards they mess with you?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 7th, 2013 at 9:46:18 PM
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Week 14 was not a good week for weak lines off the half-point cards. Most lines off the board landed on half points. There were only two strong bets that didn't:
The market line on the Redskins was +3, and the cards had +3.5.
The market line on the Jets was -3, and the cards had -2.5.
The Giants were a soft play. They were +3 and some places +3.5 at others, and +3.5 on the cards.
You might ask about the Browns +10 and Atlanta +3. Those were not on most cards, evidently because they were unsure about Rogers starting for GB and also a late line set for the Browns, I don't know why. The exception is William Hill had the Browns +12.5 on the card.
I already posted the Boyd and Rampart cards. Here are the William Hill and Golden Nugget ones.
Here are my strongest plays:
Wash +3.5
NYJ -2.5
Bills +2.5
NYG +3.5
I've also got Titans and Browns money line.
The market line on the Redskins was +3, and the cards had +3.5.
The market line on the Jets was -3, and the cards had -2.5.
The Giants were a soft play. They were +3 and some places +3.5 at others, and +3.5 on the cards.
You might ask about the Browns +10 and Atlanta +3. Those were not on most cards, evidently because they were unsure about Rogers starting for GB and also a late line set for the Browns, I don't know why. The exception is William Hill had the Browns +12.5 on the card.
I already posted the Boyd and Rampart cards. Here are the William Hill and Golden Nugget ones.
Here are my strongest plays:
Wash +3.5
NYJ -2.5
Bills +2.5
NYG +3.5
I've also got Titans and Browns money line.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 8th, 2013 at 1:40:15 PM
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Quote: Wizard
I've also got Titans and Browns money line.
Damn Wizard. The refs stole your Browns money line winner.
Sorry man.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 8th, 2013 at 2:56:52 PM
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Excuse me?
December 8th, 2013 at 3:00:28 PM
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Quote: KeyserSozeDamn Wizard. The refs stole your Browns money line winner.
Sorry man.
Two Pats touchdowns in two minutes?! Just goes to show the pain of betting on underdogs. My pain will be alleviated if the Titans win.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 8th, 2013 at 3:27:46 PM
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Quote: WizardTwo Pats touchdowns in two minutes?! Just goes to show the pain of betting on underdogs. My pain will be alleviated if the Titans win.
I don't play large + money lines anymore. Results like this (Browns/Pats) drive me crazy. I'd rather take +points.
I do occasionally play money lines of -200 to -300 (NFL only). I have been successful doing this, but the sample size is too small to determine if I have an advantage or not. A prolonged bad streak could change my view rather quickly.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 8th, 2013 at 4:46:22 PM
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Quote: WizardTwo Pats touchdowns in two minutes?! Just goes to show the pain of betting on underdogs. My pain will be alleviated if the Titans win.
Sorry for your bad week Wizard. I remember you had a pretty good week a little while back. I you had the 49ers or another moneyline winner.
Wishing you some early positive variance for next week.
December 8th, 2013 at 5:18:05 PM
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Quote: PerditionWishing you some early positive variance for next week.
Thank you.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 12th, 2013 at 9:04:09 PM
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Does anyone have the Week 15 parlay/teaser card?
December 13th, 2013 at 3:21:23 PM
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Hi Wizard,
Thanks! This is extremely useful data!
I think that your tables have a display error though. You are showing a payout of 7 for the pick-3s, instead of a payout of 6.5. I assume that it's just automatically rounding or something. Anyway, a payout of 7 would be very nice indeed (no house edge even against random picks!) but, alas, that's not the case :) I'm specifically talking about your 3 Half-point parlay card tables: the random picker, the half-point picker, and the half-point off 3 and 7 picker.
Thanks! This is extremely useful data!
I think that your tables have a display error though. You are showing a payout of 7 for the pick-3s, instead of a payout of 6.5. I assume that it's just automatically rounding or something. Anyway, a payout of 7 would be very nice indeed (no house edge even against random picks!) but, alas, that's not the case :) I'm specifically talking about your 3 Half-point parlay card tables: the random picker, the half-point picker, and the half-point off 3 and 7 picker.
December 14th, 2013 at 1:38:20 AM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI think that your tables have a display error though.
Thanks. I just fixed that in a couple places where I found that error.
Here is the week 15 William Hill card.
I put in ten cards at $50 each at 4:15 PM on Friday and they sailed right through the machine. I was very surprised. In retrospect, I should have filled some more out.
Plays on every card:
Falcons -6.5
Saints -5.5
Dolphins +2.5
Cards -2.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 14th, 2013 at 5:32:15 AM
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Wizard- thanks for posting the cards each week so I can play at home.
Next week, I'm in Vegas and will be able to get real money down. I'm glad to read your were able to bet $500 this week. Perhaps I'll try for more since I'm not a known face.
Next week, I'm in Vegas and will be able to get real money down. I'm glad to read your were able to bet $500 this week. Perhaps I'll try for more since I'm not a known face.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 14th, 2013 at 5:54:22 AM
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I'm happy when the Wizard puts these up because he puts his picks and I notice I make sure to watch those scores to hope the Wizard won.
Also nice to see they didn't bust your chops on playing the cards like they did before.
Also nice to see they didn't bust your chops on playing the cards like they did before.
December 14th, 2013 at 6:21:32 AM
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Wizard-
Why not wait until Sunday to bet these cards?
Why so early this week?
Do they ever take games "off" due to substantial line moves? Reprint new cards with updated point spreads?
Why not wait until Sunday to bet these cards?
Why so early this week?
Do they ever take games "off" due to substantial line moves? Reprint new cards with updated point spreads?
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 14th, 2013 at 6:56:26 AM
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Quote: KeyserSozeWhy not wait until Sunday to bet these cards?
First, because there are also college games, which are on Saturday. The college season is winding down, so the one above didn't have many college games. Still, you could argue that they could put them out on Friday instead of Thursday. I think they are trying to find a happy medium between maximizing the period of time they can sell the cards and minimizing risk. Putting them out on Friday wouldn't allow the public enough time to bet them.
Quote: KeyserSozeWhy so early this week?
I'm not sure I understand the question. They always put them out on Thursday, generally the afternoon.
Quote: KeyserSozeDo they ever take games "off" due to substantial line moves? Reprint new cards with updated point spreads?
They take games off, but don't reprint the cards. There will often be a sign saying, for example, "The Chargers/Broncos game is off for purposes of parlay and teaser cards." If a player bubbled that game in anyway, the card reader should reject it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 14th, 2013 at 7:57:18 AM
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Sorry, my question was unclear.
You made your bets at 4:15pm Friday. Why not wait until 9:00am Sunday?
If one believes the betting market is efficient, the sharpest line would be the closing line. If you wait until about one hour before kick off, you may have a greater advantage?
You made your bets at 4:15pm Friday. Why not wait until 9:00am Sunday?
If one believes the betting market is efficient, the sharpest line would be the closing line. If you wait until about one hour before kick off, you may have a greater advantage?
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 14th, 2013 at 8:37:49 AM
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Quote: KeyserSozeYou made your bets at 4:15pm Friday. Why not wait until 9:00am Sunday?
The first reason is the longer you wait, the harder it is to get money down. Betting on the hot sides is one red flag. Putting them in on Sunday morning is another. The second reason is I flew into Vegas yesterday, so as long as I was by the airport I swung by the William Hill outlet at Hooters. Speaking of which, they still have attractive girls dealing 3-2 single-deck blackjack.
Quote:If one believes the betting market is efficient, the sharpest line would be the closing line. If you wait until about one hour before kick off, you may have a greater advantage?
I agree. The sports books know that too. Betting early gives some much-needed cover.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 14th, 2013 at 8:54:28 AM
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That makes perfect sense. Thanks for answering my questions!
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 14th, 2013 at 9:38:55 PM
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But wizard wouldnt you agree that for the average bettor, betting just a couple hundred...betting sunday AM is best, because you could weigh whether you are really getting value with an extra point here and there in exchange for receiving a lesser payout. Sometimes the extra half of a point or point you thought you were getting on the card dissapears by sunday morning...in which case you can do a 3 teamer off the board.
I now sometimes the discrepency is large and will likely remain..like on friday I see on william hill miami is plus 2.5///now its even...and I dont expect sunday morning to dissolve the advantage of getting the 2.5 points when betting off the board.
But other times totals and sides may change sunday morning. Even weather changes sometimes between sat night and sun morning.
If the 3 team card parlays payed exactly the same as off the board it would be less of an issue
I now sometimes the discrepency is large and will likely remain..like on friday I see on william hill miami is plus 2.5///now its even...and I dont expect sunday morning to dissolve the advantage of getting the 2.5 points when betting off the board.
But other times totals and sides may change sunday morning. Even weather changes sometimes between sat night and sun morning.
If the 3 team card parlays payed exactly the same as off the board it would be less of an issue
December 15th, 2013 at 12:03:24 AM
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I'm heaviest on redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, and steelers +3.5.
December 15th, 2013 at 2:04:23 AM
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Quote: LarrySBut wizard wouldnt you agree that for the average bettor, betting just a couple hundred.
For advantage players, I recommend using the Kelly Criterion to size your bets. Most advantage players have a large enough bankroll to be rebuffed at the window with what they want to bet, so it becomes a matter of getting down as much as you can.
Quote:..betting sunday AM is best, because you could weigh whether you are really getting value with an extra point here and there in exchange for receiving a lesser payout. Sometimes the extra half of a point or point you thought you were getting on the card dissapears by sunday morning...in which case you can do a 3 teamer off the board.
If you only want to bet a couple hundred, I would agree. If you want to bet a couple thousand, I would recommend betting earlier. I do not recommend off the board parlays at all.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 15th, 2013 at 1:53:29 PM
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live on two tickets. jets +11.5, steelers +3.5, lions -5.5 left on one. Steelers +3.5, lions -5.5 left on another.
December 15th, 2013 at 2:47:22 PM
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I'm completely washed out already. This morning I spent another $650 on cards at the Rampart and Suncoast, I might add. I saw rudeboyoi in line behind me at the Suncoast. Losers included:
TB +5.5
Falcons -6.5
Texas +5.5
Phil -4.5
TB +5.5
Falcons -6.5
Texas +5.5
Phil -4.5
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 15th, 2013 at 3:33:53 PM
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Comparing the parlay card point spreads to the closing market numbers, three games stand out:
Seattle -6.5. The point spread closed around -9 (crossing key number 7)
Buffalo -1.5. The point spread closed at -4 (crossing key number 3)
Miami +2.5. The closing number on this game had Miami as a -2.5 favorite)
All three of these games were winners on the parlay card. Would a sports book accept a card on Sunday morning with all three of these plays? Whatcha think Wizard?
Seattle -6.5. The point spread closed around -9 (crossing key number 7)
Buffalo -1.5. The point spread closed at -4 (crossing key number 3)
Miami +2.5. The closing number on this game had Miami as a -2.5 favorite)
All three of these games were winners on the parlay card. Would a sports book accept a card on Sunday morning with all three of these plays? Whatcha think Wizard?
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 15th, 2013 at 3:38:06 PM
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Quote: KeyserSozeAll three of these games were winners on the parlay card. Would a sports book accept a card on Sunday morning with all three of these plays? Whatcha think Wizard?
Sure. They may not take a lot of them, especially at large bets, but they will always take at least two, in my experience, and from what I hear.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 15th, 2013 at 3:40:59 PM
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Quote: WizardSure. They may not take a lot of them, especially at large bets, but they will always take at least two, in my experience, and from what I hear.
That good to know. I'm in Vegas next week and I will try to find 3 or 4 key games and include them all on several 5 or 6 team parlays.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 15th, 2013 at 3:53:15 PM
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Quote: KeyserSozeThat good to know. I'm in Vegas next week and I will try to find 3 or 4 key games and include them all on several 5 or 6 team parlays.
I'd be happy to discuss what to play the McNugget challenge. I'll bring some cards from the Rampart. Hope to see you there.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 15th, 2013 at 5:55:19 PM
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Quote: WizardI'd be happy to discuss what to play the McNugget challenge. I'll bring some cards from the Rampart. Hope to see you there.
That's totally cool of you. I was hoping you would do us this favor. I'm a low roller, be making some small bets for myself( just a bunch of 10 dollar bets risking about 70), I'd place some bets for you if need any help. William Hill right at the D.
Any opinion on the 2 bowl games that day?
Buffalo vs San Diego St. kickoff 230pm, just off hand thinking Buffalo , cold weather, tougher players.
Tulane vs LA Lafayette 6pm
When somebody doesn't believe me, I could care less. Some get totally bent out of shape when not believed. Weird. I believe very little on all forums
December 15th, 2013 at 9:50:25 PM
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Wizard, can u please explain why its not suggested to bet off the board?
December 16th, 2013 at 4:16:22 AM
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They back you off faster.Quote: LarrySWizard, can u please explain why its not suggested to bet off the board?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 16th, 2013 at 4:23:32 AM
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Quote: LarrySWizard, can u please explain why its not suggested to bet off the board?
Because you aren't getting any extra points.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 16th, 2013 at 8:26:04 AM
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Quote: WizardBecause you aren't getting any extra points.
I dont pretend to know more than anyone else but from my novice point of view I dont agree.
You are assumng that the number handed out by "the man" is handed down from god as being accurate based on reality. However its just probably accurate as a way to get equal action on each side of the number.
So is it possible to spot one or 2 games a week where the number is based more on public feeling rather than reality. Is it possible for "the man to fall into that trap either knowingly(in order to purposely or non purposely shine the luight on the wrong team) or unknowingly by muscalculation have an inaccurate point spread
Is it possibe to "find extra points" without viewing discrepancies on cards? Is it possilbe to look on the board and say "I think this ppint spread is overvalued by 2 points"???
And in doing so, is there an advantage to being able to have the flexibility to be a 2 team parlay off the board. rather than extend to 3?
Is it possible also that by finding a discrpency on the ticket, that the value on the ticket is now the correct value, and the number on the board is wrong. Meaning you are getting an advantage over the board...but no real value in winning because the card spread is just right.
Personally I think the board offers its own value, although not as obviousl as comparing numbers on a card.
December 16th, 2013 at 8:57:29 AM
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I'm with the Wizard on this one.
If we are talking parlays, its best to play parlays where the bettor can take advantage of soft point spreads. I believe the betting market is efficient and the current point spread is the most difficult point spread to beat. In other words, yesterday's point spread is 'more beatable' than today's point spread.
If one feels they are sharp enough to beat the current point spread, I recommend they do it with flat bets, not parlays. Parlays have a much higher house edge, and if you are not getting any 'free points', I doubt anyone is sharp enough to win consistently betting off the board parlays.
Great thread and great discussions here. Love it!
If we are talking parlays, its best to play parlays where the bettor can take advantage of soft point spreads. I believe the betting market is efficient and the current point spread is the most difficult point spread to beat. In other words, yesterday's point spread is 'more beatable' than today's point spread.
If one feels they are sharp enough to beat the current point spread, I recommend they do it with flat bets, not parlays. Parlays have a much higher house edge, and if you are not getting any 'free points', I doubt anyone is sharp enough to win consistently betting off the board parlays.
Great thread and great discussions here. Love it!
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 16th, 2013 at 9:02:04 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfThey back you off faster.
I don't think they would back off anyone attempting to bet an 'off the board' parlay. Unless the parlay is correlated.
Now, they will back you off for attempting to bet certain combinations on parlay cards.
Parlay cards are beatable. I don't believe 'off the board' parlays are beatable.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 16th, 2013 at 9:16:37 AM
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+1Quote: KeyserSozeI'm with the Wizard on this one.
If we are talking parlays, its best to play parlays where the bettor can take advantage of soft point spreads. I believe the betting market is efficient and the current point spread is the most difficult point spread to beat. In other words, yesterday's point spread is 'more beatable' than today's point spread.
If one feels they are sharp enough to beat the current point spread, I recommend they do it with flat bets, not parlays. Parlays have a much higher house edge, and if you are not getting any 'free points', I doubt anyone is sharp enough to win consistently betting off the board parlays.
Great thread and great discussions here. Love it!
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 16th, 2013 at 9:21:40 AM
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Yes they will if a lot of action is being bet on a particular team.Quote: KeyserSozeI don't think they would back off anyone attempting to bet an 'off the board' parlay. Unless the parlay is correlated.
Now, they will back you off for attempting to bet certain combinations on parlay cards.
Parlay cards are beatable. I don't believe 'off the board' parlays are beatable.
you may find a book that has a few off number on the board. I know a few casinos that backed you off quick, Rampart was one.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
December 16th, 2013 at 11:20:27 AM
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Also: why parlay? Just make individual bets off the board. If you have an edge, the last thing that you want to do is take on more variance for free.
December 16th, 2013 at 11:50:29 AM
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Quote: KeyserSozeI don't think they would back off anyone attempting to bet an 'off the board' parlay. Unless the parlay is correlated.
Now, they will back you off for attempting to bet certain combinations on parlay cards.
Parlay cards are beatable. I don't believe 'off the board' parlays are beatable.
So are you saying that Billy Walters built his fortune playing parlay cards
I thought he bets flat
which I do alot off the board, and 'gamble" with 2 team parlays.
3.4.5 teamers are too much of a gamble for me
December 16th, 2013 at 11:50:50 AM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceAlso: why parlay? Just make individual bets off the board. If you have an edge, the last thing that you want to do is take on more variance for free.
totally agree
December 16th, 2013 at 12:03:08 PM
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If you have an edge, its compounded on parlays.
December 16th, 2013 at 12:20:11 PM
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Quote: rudeboyoiIf you have an edge, its compounded on parlays.
Yeah but the variance also goes up so you can't bet as much.
Assuming that you are betting optimally (ie, Kelly Betting) you will make more money on 3 individual bets than on a parlay of 3 bets (assuming that the parlay odds are fair -- ie, multiplied). Even though your percent edge on each ticket will be lower, you will bet much more on each ticket and this will more than make up for it.
December 16th, 2013 at 12:25:38 PM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYeah but the variance also goes up so you can't bet as much.
Assuming that you are betting optimally (ie, Kelly Betting) you will make more money on 3 individual bets than on a parlay of 3 bets (assuming that the parlay odds are fair -- ie, multiplied). Even though your percent edge on each ticket will be lower, you will bet much more on each ticket and this will more than make up for it.
You're absolutely right.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
December 16th, 2013 at 1:25:46 PM
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Quote: LarrySSo are you saying that Billy Walters built his fortune playing parlay cards
I thought he bets flat
which I do alot off the board, and 'gamble" with 2 team parlays.
3.4.5 teamers are too much of a gamble for me
WHAT???
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 16th, 2013 at 4:04:21 PM
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"the mans" number is just an opinion. Its not factaual. The only fact is that its the mans opinion.
So by getting a difference of a point or 2 on a parlay card is not automatically "an advantage"....if the mans opinion is flawed.
2 EXAMPLES
Miami this week was on the card as a dog, but at gametime it was a fave by 2.5 sunday morning, My analysis said to me that miami could win the game outright so the parlay ticket with miami receiving points was "an advantage"
Now I am on record on another post saying I was heavily leaning towards STL covring NO for reasons that I listed. It seems 90 percent of the betting public was on NO. I think the parlay card was minus 6.5 NO as the fave. Lets say the line moved to -8.5.........wow...if I like NO...i better take the parlay card at -6.5 and get "the advantage". But to me its a phoney "advantage" minus 3.5 on the card vs minus 8.5 on the board wouldnt make me see this as an advantage play.
And then on top of that
on suday I only found 2 games that I thought were worth betting. Miami, and STl., I bet the both on ML and giving/tking the points. in 2 team parlays.
If I wanted to bet them on a card, I would have to find another game to bet. A game I would have to force myself to find. Not a good way to bet.
But off the board I can bet 2 teamers, or bet flat.
So my toughts in a nutshell is...just because there is a difference in the spread on the board vs on a ticket does not automatically make one or the other an advantage play. The first question that has to be asked is.....is the number the man put out valid to begin with....and go from there.
So by getting a difference of a point or 2 on a parlay card is not automatically "an advantage"....if the mans opinion is flawed.
2 EXAMPLES
Miami this week was on the card as a dog, but at gametime it was a fave by 2.5 sunday morning, My analysis said to me that miami could win the game outright so the parlay ticket with miami receiving points was "an advantage"
Now I am on record on another post saying I was heavily leaning towards STL covring NO for reasons that I listed. It seems 90 percent of the betting public was on NO. I think the parlay card was minus 6.5 NO as the fave. Lets say the line moved to -8.5.........wow...if I like NO...i better take the parlay card at -6.5 and get "the advantage". But to me its a phoney "advantage" minus 3.5 on the card vs minus 8.5 on the board wouldnt make me see this as an advantage play.
And then on top of that
on suday I only found 2 games that I thought were worth betting. Miami, and STl., I bet the both on ML and giving/tking the points. in 2 team parlays.
If I wanted to bet them on a card, I would have to find another game to bet. A game I would have to force myself to find. Not a good way to bet.
But off the board I can bet 2 teamers, or bet flat.
So my toughts in a nutshell is...just because there is a difference in the spread on the board vs on a ticket does not automatically make one or the other an advantage play. The first question that has to be asked is.....is the number the man put out valid to begin with....and go from there.
December 16th, 2013 at 4:23:07 PM
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Bettors determine the point spread. Bookmakers just set the opener.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
December 16th, 2013 at 4:30:34 PM
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Quote: KeyserSozeBettors determine the point spread. Bookmakers just set the opener.
not really. The casinos do not take a poll of bettors before posting the initial number.
The casinos post the initial number and the public reacts to it.
the problem sometimes is that the initial number is not based on reality...its a faulty opinion....it happens....but the public takes that number as some sort of fact.
the number the man put out for new orleans was faulty from the beginning, and the public took it as an endorsement that NO was so much better than STL on the road....and they haommered money on NO.
December 16th, 2013 at 5:44:03 PM
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On my last leg of two tickets: lions -5.5
I had:
Lions -5.5, Redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, steelers +3.5, jets +11.5
Lions -5.5, Redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, steelers +3.5, bears +.5
The difference in the fair line and the line I got turned a push into a win on jets +11.5.
I had:
Lions -5.5, Redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, steelers +3.5, jets +11.5
Lions -5.5, Redskins +7.5, dolphins +2.5, steelers +3.5, bears +.5
The difference in the fair line and the line I got turned a push into a win on jets +11.5.
