Half Point Parlay Cards
Here are the pays for 3 to 10 wins at both places by my house:
Rampart: 6.5, 12, 25, 50, 100, 175, 375, 800
Suncoast: 6.5, 12, 25, 46, 90, 170, 375, 800
You can see they are the same except for 6 to 8 legs. However, 6 and 7 legs are two that I like to bet. Still, I should put in the Suncoast 5-leg cards from now in, especially since they are right next door to the Rampart, where I go anyway.
This table shows the differences between the two cards.
| Team | Rampart | Suncoast |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 10.5 | 9.5 |
| Chargers | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Miami | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| Steelers | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Bears | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Colts | 2.5 | 1.5 |
Another interesting thing is they have +/- 0.5 spreads at the Suncoast. I've never seen such a spread before. This is bad, because I believe the Rampart, Aliante, and William Hill would move a pick game to +/- 1.5.
I lamented on Thursday there were only three marginal plays, but things got better, thanks to moving lines.
Here are my main plays:
Rampart: Buccs +9.5, Min +4.5, Chic +1.5, Jags +10.2, Pitt +2.5, Ariz -2.5, Wash +5.5
Suncoast: Buccs +9.5, Min +4.5, SD +5.5, Mia +5.5, Ariz -1.5
Quote: WizardHere are my main plays:
Rampart: Buccs +9.5, Min +4.5, Chic +1.5, Jags +10.2, Pitt +2.5, Ariz -2.5, Wash +5.5
Suncoast: Buccs +9.5, Min +4.5, SD +5.5, Mia +5.5, Ariz -1.5
If Arizona covers -1.5/-2.5 (I have them at both lines) I'll have a VERY good day today. The Bears killed a number of my parlays, but many other rest partially or entirely on Arizona. At the moment they are up 27-3 with 6:11 in the third quarter. However, if there is one thing I've learned betting sports, you NEVER count your chickens until they hatch.
Assuming Arizona covers, I've got some that will hinge on the Redskins +5.5. I will be tempted to break my own commandment and hedge in that situation.
P.S. Break up the Bucs!
Quote: PerditionGlad to hear you had a good day Wizard. Continued Positive Variance to you and yours.
Thanks! Arizona covered, so I get to write a W on a number of tickets. However, about half still hinge on the Redskins. To hedge or not to hedge?
Quote: WizardThanks! Arizona covered, so I get to write a W on a number of tickets. However, about half still hinge on the Redskins. To hedge or not to hedge?
YESYESYESYESYES!!!! WooHoo Wiz! Great variance going forward!
Quote: beachbumbabsYESYESYESYESYES!!!! WooHoo Wiz! Great variance going forward!
Thanks Barb! I feel like celebrating. I think I'll drink three beers instead of two tonight.
If you didn't have to pay the Vig on the hedge would that get you to do it for certain?Quote: WizardThanks! Arizona covered, so I get to write a W on a number of tickets. However, about half still hinge on the Redskins. To hedge or not to hedge?
Quote: WizardThanks! Arizona covered, so I get to write a W on a number of tickets. However, about half still hinge on the Redskins. To hedge or not to hedge?
Hedging is for gardeners, not gamblers.
Congrats on your good day.
I greatly appreciate all the new work (sports betting) you are generating at the Wizard of Odds site. Great stuff!
Quote: AxelWolfIf you didn't have to pay the Vig on the hedge would that get you to do it for certain?
Yes, of course. Volatility is the enemy of the professional gambler. Of course, bad bets too. I think I'll hunt around for a good line on SF tomorrow.
Quote: KeyserSozeCongrats on your good day. I greatly appreciate all the new work (sports betting) you are generating at the Wizard of Odds site. Great stuff!
Thank you and thank you!
I would think the money this afternoon will be coming in on SF, so bet it soon.
Quote: DRichIt looks like there are still some 4.5 point lines for the game tonight. At least if you do hedge, you can root for the middle at 5.
I got SF -5.5 +108, which I thought was about fair, so I bet enough on it to be indifferent to who wins, for purposes of the parlays. However, I still have a money line bet on the Vikings. I'd also rather win money from the casinos on the parlays than from the friend I hedged with.
Quote: WizardI got SF -5.5 +108, which I thought was about fair, so I bet enough on it to be indifferent to who wins, for purposes of the parlays. However, I still have a money line bet on the Vikings. I'd also rather win money from the casinos on the parlays than from the friend I hedged with.
Are you seriously againist hedging parlay wagers? I recall my last visit to Las Vegas I was doing quite well on the bowl games. It came to the last game, and adding up my wagers I had close to $6000.usd riding on that game. This amount made me nervous so I went and bet the other side for $3000.usd. The total wagered on the cards themselves was "only" about $300.usd. Isn't it "smart" to lock in on a $3000.usd win on a $300.usd wager? (yes, of course, I would have won $6000.usd after it was all said and done but I didn't feel that bad since I did win the $3000.usd..
Quote: NokTangAre you seriously againist hedging parlay wagers?
Yes. First, it shouldn't make any difference how much you bet to begin with. Look at game shows. You see people playing foolishly often, evidently because they have nothing to lose. However, money is money, and it shouldn't matter who or why you are getting it.
My policy on hedging is it is acceptable if either:
A) The hedge bet itself is neutral or positive.
B) Life-changing amounts of money are involved.
In this case, I felt the hedge itself was neutral, so it was a free way to lower volatility.
Quote: Wizard
My policy on hedging is it is acceptable if either:
A) The hedge bet itself is neutral or positive.
One would assume a wager on a national game, a college football bowl game, would be neutral.
As mentioned, with bowl games you are spread out over a week or more. It came down to the last game, as you indicated your Redskins game/wager did. I wanted to lock in on the $3000.usd win instead of hoping for the $6000.usd win, mostly because I didn't want $6000.usd on one football game. Please explain again why that doesn't make sense to you. It made sense to me at the time and still does today.
I guess the same "hedge" question could be applied to for example a long shot at winning the Super Bowl. Once that team got to the Super Bowl, isn't a hedge on the other side worthwhile?(perhaps a moneyline wager) or am I missing the entire points of long shots and parlay cards?
If on the other hand I were a person who bet their favorite teams, bet the televised games, or the high profile games,...then I would hedge the last game on a parlay ticket because no thought really went into the bet other than a "feeling" that a team was better or would win or lose by the required points.
but I agree...for people who bet on a longshot to get to the superbowl, and they do get there....I wold hege because you really didnt do analysis and come up with the team to win the superbowl..its usually an impulse buy. So to cover an impulse bet I would hedge.
To cover a well thought out, well analyzed bet....I usually dont hedge....unless something changes like a late scratch of players.
Quote: NokTangPlease explain again why that doesn't make sense to you.
I was under the impression you were factoring why the original bet was made in the decision to hedge. That shouldn't matter, and was the point of my disagreement. I have no problem hedging as long as either of my conditions is bet.
Life-changing is a bit drastic. I would lower that to bankroll changing. I doubt $3000 would be Life-changing in most cases, however if someone was taking a first time shot at a winning system like this, with limited funds, lest say $1000. Now that person gets lucky on the first few weeks and has a chance to lock up 3k, rather then getting 6k or nothing. Hedging is almost a must, that 3k would add a significant amount he can put towards many more +EV situations. Where $1500 may not be nearly enough.Quote: WizardYes. First, it shouldn't make any difference how much you bet to begin with. Look at game shows. You see people playing foolishly often, evidently because they have nothing to lose. However, money is money, and it shouldn't matter who or why you are getting it.
My policy on hedging is it is acceptable if either:
A) The hedge bet itself is neutral or positive.
B) Life-changing amounts of money are involved.
In this case, I felt the hedge itself was neutral, so it was a free way to lower volatility.
I said it before and I stand by it, I will take a guaranteed 3% on a VP promotion rather then a 4% in value on a top heavy progressive.
I have seen many guys fail at AP, where they passed on lesser safer opportunities just to gain an extra % on higher risk plays.
Quote: NokTangPlease post this weeks 1/2 point card so those of us less fortunate can play it for fun, guts, and glory. Thank you.
You got it. Here is the week 13 Suncoast card. I'll try to get the Rampart card tomorrow. Sorry I didn't post this before today's first two games.
I approached the counter at the outlet at the Railroad Crossing with a stack of 22, each for $40. While waiting for the authorization on the first one, the writer flapped them, as if expecting them to form a cartoon. It was pretty obvious they were a round robin. In addition, three picks were on every single card. The first one eventually went through. Then the writer called somebody and described the situation accurately. I, of course, don't know what was said the other way, but probably something like, "run some more through and we'll see how it goes." Each one took a long time and a line was forming behind me. The eleventh card was rejected. The writer said, "That is all they are going to take."
Downtown was right on my way home, so I decided to try again there. I had 12 left, already filled out, so thought I would put in four each at the Four Queens, Binions, and Plaza. I might add, I could have gone to the D as well. My first stop was Binion's. The first two went through, but took a while. The third was rejected. The supervisor seemed surprised so he made a call. I could hear him say the customer had only four total. Permission was then granted for the other two. The supervisor was very apologetic and blamed the machine but also mentioned that the fact that they were all on underdogs might have had something to do with it.
After that experience, I decided my odds were not looking very good at the Four Queens and Plaza, so didn't try. I did go to the Golden Nugget, where they pay 25 for a 5-team parlay, which is just as good as William Hill. However, their lines were better set, so I put in one only.
I'm almost shocked Las Vegas is worried about $40.usd parlay cards to the point of not accepting the wagers. This would and does turn customers off. Why print up the darn things if you are so worried about losing?
This again brings me to ask one more time......has there ever been a weekend when they didn't pay off winning parlay cards due to reaching a "limit" on their(the casino's) losses?
Quote: WizardThe supervisor was very apologetic and blamed the machine but also mentioned that the fact that they were all on underdogs might have had something to do with it.
Any opinions as to why an international sports book(William Hill), and more to the point, the supervisor at one of its outlets, would say that picking all underdogs on a $40.usd wager would have something to do with not having the sporting attitude to take the wager? Why do they call themselves a "sportsbook" if $40.usd wagers scare them or they don't want to accept parlay card wagers where they certainly don't pay out odds near to actual and have a certain mathematical advantage? What's happened to that community and it certainly isn't the old days at Binions with no limits on any game or sports event.
Quote: NokTangAny opinions as to why an international sports book(William Hill), and more to the point, the supervisor at one of its outlets, would say that picking all underdogs on a $40.usd wager would have something to do with not having the sporting attitude to take the wager? Why do they call themselves a "sportsbook" if $40.usd wagers scare them or they don't want to accept parlay card wagers where they certainly don't pay out odds near to actual and have a certain mathematical advantage? What's happened to that community and it certainly isn't the old days at Binions with no limits on any game or sports event.
First, they don't just look at the cost of the wager, but what it can win. At Binnion's I did two 5-leg and two 6-leg parlays. If they all had won it would have cost them $8,000. You still might say that $8,000 shouldn't be much to William Hill.
Second, they know that sharp bettors do what I've been preaching -- picking only the hot sides. I don't blame them for taking some measures against people like me. However to stop after two $40 tickets was rather extreme. They might have suspected the customer was the same guy (me) that just bet the same teams for the same amount at another casino.
Quote: WizardFirst, they don't just look at the cost of the wager, but what it can win. At Binnion's I did two 5-leg and two 6-leg parlays. If they all had won it would have cost them $8,000. You still might say that $8,000 shouldn't be much to William Hill.
Second, they know that sharp bettors do what I've been preaching -- picking only the hot sides. I don't blame them for taking some measures against people like me. However to stop after two $40 tickets was rather extreme. They might have suspected the customer was the same guy (me) that just bet the same teams for the same amount at another casino.
On the first point, the concept of parlay cards is to get people to bet them. As you well know, in the overall picture I find it difficult to believe they are worried about the possible pay out of some $8000. for a few cards with five and lix legs.
On the second point, from your postings here you haven't exactly been making a killing on your "hot sides" the last few weeks. In fact, the opposite is true according to your post. Here again you mentioned you had the same few teams on all cards. The fact you went to another outlet and that was noticed at the central computer/location, who knows. But more important from the operators point of view, who cares? They need the big picture to develop.
Warmest regards but I doubt you have warranted "measures" being taken for $40.usd wagers. It's not like Money Mayweather and his million dollar wagers.
Quote: NokTangOn the second point, from your postings here you haven't exactly been making a killing on your "hot sides" the last few weeks.
I had a great week last week. I bet $1,250 and got back $15,000. It would have been $25,000 had the Redskins covered +5.5.
people have been betting theses parlays for years, Sports books have often rejected guys trying to bet way to many cards. It as been tough and more limited latley. Do you think now that the cat is. furhter out of the bag and your detailed information has had an effect on the. Increased bet limiting. Perhaps there has been a surge of new bettors. Or is this just an anomaly? Perhaps they will get even tougher?Quote: WizardHere is the week 13 William Hill card.
I approached the counter at the outlet at the Railroad Crossing with a stack of 22, each for $40. While waiting for the authorization on the first one, the writer flapped them, as if expecting them to form a cartoon. It was pretty obvious they were a round robin. In addition, three picks were on every single card. The first one eventually went through. Then the writer called somebody and described the situation accurately. I, of course, don't know what was said the other way, but probably something like, "run some more through and we'll see how it goes." Each one took a long time and a line was forming behind me. The eleventh card was rejected. The writer said, "That is all they are going to take."
Downtown was right on my way home, so I decided to try again there. I had 12 left, already filled out, so thought I would put in four each at the Four Queens, Binions, and Plaza. I might add, I could have gone to the D as well. My first stop was Binion's. The first two went through, but took a while. The third was rejected. The supervisor seemed surprised so he made a call. I could hear him say the customer had only four total. Permission was then granted for the other two. The supervisor was very apologetic and blamed the machine but also mentioned that the fact that they were all on underdogs might have had something to do with it.
After that experience, I decided my odds were not looking very good at the Four Queens and Plaza, so didn't try. I did go to the Golden Nugget, where they pay 25 for a 5-team parlay, which is just as good as William Hill. However, their lines were better set, so I put in one only.
Quote: AxelWolfIt as been tough and more limited latley.
Yup. Feeling a lot of heat at the Rampart I put in five only today for $80 each, but would have liked to put in much more. The supervisor looked at them very carefully. As he did he said, "You know I can limit you to two anytime I want, right?" After a while he accepted them, but I think I'm going to limit myself to two the rest of this season, before they do it for me. Hopefully they will forget my face by next season.
At the Suncoast maybe I was too greedy, as I handed the writer a stack of 15 for $50 each. The writer was onto the trick and quickly saw that they were correlated. She called over a supervisor and said, "This customer is trying to do a round robin." The supervisor, who I like, said "let's run them through and see what they take." The powers that be at the Gold Coast accepted four only. Then I was told I could put in the rest off the board, which I declined, of course.
So, yes, it has been getting tougher, just in this season.
Anyway, here if the week 13 South Point/Rampart card.
Quote: WizardAs he did he said, "You know I can limit you to two anytime I want, right?" After a while he accepted them, but I think I'm going to limit myself to two the rest of this season, before they do it for me. Hopefully they will forget my face by next season.
You are not cheating. Don't let these minions get in your head. Use runners if you have. This conduct is unacceptable and I'll boycott these outfits next trip to Las Vegas. I'd be surprised if places like Wynn and Caesars are acting like they are so scared of the money. Why not try at some of the bigger shops? Even LeRoys would lose their reputation. Screw William Hill, I never liked England anyhow, too many drunks and chain smokers. They can go back to their dog racing and leave American football to real men.
Quote: NokTangYou are not cheating. Don't let these minions get in your head. Use runners if you have. This conduct is unacceptable and I'll boycott these outfits next trip to Las Vegas. I'd be surprised if places like Wynn and Caesars are acting like they are so scared of the money. Why not try at some of the bigger shops? Even LeRoys would lose their reputation. Screw William Hill, I never liked England anyhow, too many drunks and chain smokers. They can go back to their dog racing and leave American football to real men.
Everybody in Vegas is going to draw a line somewhere with a bunch of correlated parlay cards, with every pick on the hot sides. Caesars would probably put up with even less than William Hill. They once limited me to a $50 on Super Bowl prop bets.
Regarding runners, I wish I had one, but can't justify the expense.
Quote: WizardYup. Feeling a lot of heat at the Rampart I put in five only today for $80 each, but would have liked to put in much more. The supervisor looked at them very carefully. As he did he said, "You know I can limit you to two anytime I want, right?" After a while he accepted them, but I think I'm going to limit myself to two the rest of this season, before they do it for me. Hopefully they will forget my face by next season.
At the Suncoast maybe I was too greedy, as I handed the writer a stack of 15 for $50 each. The writer was onto the trick and quickly saw that they were correlated. She called over a supervisor and said, "This customer is trying to do a round robin." The supervisor, who I like, said "let's run them through and see what they take." The powers that be at the Gold Coast accepted four only. Then I was told I could put in the rest off the board, which I declined, of course.
So, yes, it has been getting tougher, just in this season.
Don't you think you should be a little bit more discreet with respect to posting all these details for everyone to see? Lots of folks from the dark side read these forums as well...although I suppose anyone hanging around here, would know you by your face already anyway.
Quote: AcesAndEightsDon't you think you should be a little bit more discreet with respect to posting all these details for everyone to see? Lots of folks from the dark side read these forums as well...although I suppose anyone hanging around here, would know you by your face already anyway.
I doubt that is the issue. What I suspect happened is that the sports books got clobbered on the half point cards last week because so many of the hot sides won. This week they are exercising more restraint.
About me getting blamed for ruining another advantage play, how come nobody ever throws that stone at Ed Thorp for writing Beat the Dealer? There were groups who figured out counting before that book. After it was published, the rules were depressed for everybody.
Quote: rainmanI wouldn't have given much thought to these cards if it wasn't for you so thanks and keep up the good work. :)
You're welcome!
Let me also remind my critics of that the voting in the Should the Wizard write about lucrative promotions? poll was 79 to 5 in favor of "yes."
Titans +4.5
Broncos -4.5
Bucs +8.5
Cardinals +3.5
Seahawks -4.5
Browns -6.5
Jaguars +7.5
Falcons +3.5
I know Falcons +3.5 doesn't look like a good pick as I write this. The market obviously moved. As I recall, the line was +3 when I bet it.
Quote: WizardTitans +4.5
So much for week 13. Titans +4.5 was the first pick on every single parlay.
Quote: WizardSo much for week 13. Titans +4.5 was the first pick on every single parlay.
When you put in your picks at Rampart next week, show the losing tix to the supervisor and let him know you would have lost more.
Maybe he'll be more lenient.
I think its ridiculous you get heat for your picks.
You would think there is a place in Vegas that wouldn't mind taking your total action.
What does a casino do if a whale comes in, plays some table games and then moves over to the sports book to put some major money on 1/2 point parley cards?
Quote: WizardI doubt that is the issue. What I suspect happened is that the sports books got clobbered on the half point cards last week because so many of the hot sides won. This week they are exercising more restraint.
About me getting blamed for ruining another advantage play, how come nobody ever throws that stone at Ed Thorp for writing Beat the Dealer? There were groups who figured out counting before that book. After it was published, the rules were depressed for everybody.
I actually wasn't criticizing you at all for publicizing this play, although I can see how it would have looked that way. My apologies.
My post was more along the lines of not putting too much information about yourself and your betting activities out onto the internet. For example, if I were a serious card counter, I would never post the next day any details about my previous days' play, just in case an employee of said casino happened to be trolling this forum. It would not be hard to match up the facts ("I was betting $10 units with a 1-20 spread, I went down big but then made a pretty good comeback to win about $200" along those lines) and then, I would be done at that house for the foreseeable future. Even as a very amateur card counter I avoid those posts, and wait a few weeks if I have a really juicy story or have a question about some specific situation I was in.
Anyway, I'm thinking the same caution might be prudent in sports betting. I never give casinos too much credit, so I doubt many of them know that the kind of parlay cards you're turning in have a player advantage. But if they happened to be trolling this forum...and remember that some guy came in yesterday with a card that looked a lot like this:
Quote: WizardTitans +4.5
Broncos -4.5
Bucs +8.5
Cardinals +3.5
Seahawks -4.5
Browns -6.5
Jaguars +7.5
Falcons +3.5
...and then read up on the analysis and see that these cards are pretty lucrative...maybe next week they don't take any cards at all from you. Know what I'm saying?
Granted you are older than I and have been in the gambling business a lot longer. So, take my feedback with a grain of salt.
Quote: AcesAndEightsMy post was more along the lines of not putting too much information about yourself and your betting activities out onto the internet. For example, if I were a serious card counter, I would never post the next day any details about my previous days' play, just in case an employee of said casino happened to be trolling this forum.
I post my plays to educate my readers what I'm doing with actual examples. It is more important to me to help others win money than win it myself.
On a related topic, here is a quote from After 20 years as book director, retiring Walker learned to say no
Quote: Robert WalkerThe pros that sneak people in here at night ... our biggest parlay card players the last few years have been elderly women who come in with stacks of cards and play round-robins on games that we're 2-3 points off," Walker said. "It's people that you wouldn't normally associate with taking a shot at you. The pros have gotten to our casino players, and they've tried everything.
Quote: WizardI post my plays to educate my readers what I'm doing with actual examples. It is more important to me to help others win money than win it myself.
Fair enough. In my opinion, your obligation as a "gambling educator" should end at describing the potential play and the mechanics involved, including the math and the theoretical edge and variance. I don't think you need to post the specific plays and parlay cards every week, but of course that's up to you.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI don't think you need to post the specific plays and parlay cards every week, but of course that's up to you.
I may not need to, but I'm a believer in teaching by example.
Quote: WizardI may not need to, but I'm a believer in teaching by example.
Then can I safely assume you will not be betting against a safety in the Super Bowl this year. Just asking !
Quote: BuzzardThen can I safely assume you will not be betting against a safety in the Super Bowl this year. Just asking !
I don't know about the Wizard, but I will bet NO SAFETY in the Super Bowl. The price should be very good this year.
Quote: KeyserSozeI don't know about the Wizard, but I will bet NO SAFETY in the Super Bowl. The price should be very good this year.
Indeed, I will bet it again. The fact that three out of the last five Super Bowls have had safeties does not deter me. However, I will have a fresh look at the data, to see if there was an increase in safeties during the 2013 season. I'm also hoping to see better lines. I am hoping to lay only 6 to 1 this time.
Quote: KeyserSozeI don't know about the Wizard, but I will bet NO SAFETY in the Super Bowl. The price should be very good this year.
Yeah, I worried I won't get around 10-1 on a Safety this year. I'll still make it unless it's under 4-1, it's my favourite bet of the year to make.
Quote: rudeboyoi
Sun coast:
Jags +3.5
Redskins +3.5
Vikings +6.5
Raiders +2.5
Colts +5.5
Panthers +3.5
Lions +2.5
Dolphins +3.5
Bills +2.5
Titans +12.5
Rams +6.5
Giants +3.5
Seahawks +2.5
Bears +.5
Ramparts only difference is Monday nights game cowboys +.5 instead of bears +.5
Quote: LarrySI am rather new...please fill me in about the "no safety bet"....I know what the bet is....but I was just wondering if its just a wtf bet, or is there a well thought out reasoning behind betting it one way or the other?
We'll be discussing that when Super Bowl props come out. Start saving your money now to bet the NO.
