A certain type of sports bettor
August 15th, 2013 at 10:27:31 PM
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are there sports bettors out there like myself, who enjoy researching and coming up with picks, bets them either flat or in parlays, and goes on with life, not watching the games, not caring what multimillion dollar players are doing as far as mugging for the camera, or acting out, Not agonizing over each play.
Just bet and look at the box score to see the scores and how they were attained. Then either lick your wounds or collect your pay?
I know the NFL relies on a growing fanbase that is the antithesis of me. The beer drinking "fans" of a specific team that are willing to back up their love of the team with cash bets either legal or illegal. The people who sit at sports bars, sports books, talegate parties...and hang on every play
Thats not me. I do gamble 2 K on 5-10 games.....each weekend. But never get caught up in the game. I do learn from the boxscore. But that is a 5 minute process.
games are vehicles for me to try to win money....not a time consuming entertainment vehicle for me to watch from beginning to end/
anyone else bet like this?
Just bet and look at the box score to see the scores and how they were attained. Then either lick your wounds or collect your pay?
I know the NFL relies on a growing fanbase that is the antithesis of me. The beer drinking "fans" of a specific team that are willing to back up their love of the team with cash bets either legal or illegal. The people who sit at sports bars, sports books, talegate parties...and hang on every play
Thats not me. I do gamble 2 K on 5-10 games.....each weekend. But never get caught up in the game. I do learn from the boxscore. But that is a 5 minute process.
games are vehicles for me to try to win money....not a time consuming entertainment vehicle for me to watch from beginning to end/
anyone else bet like this?
August 15th, 2013 at 11:05:26 PM
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Of course, many people bet like that its all numbers to them. Billy Walters comes to mind.
August 16th, 2013 at 4:41:54 AM
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I think it's a bad idea. Don't you get a better idea of things from actually watching? I think there are some things that stats don't show.
August 16th, 2013 at 7:06:20 AM
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I think it depends on what type of bettor you are. If you can follow the bets of smart people who put in the work and have a track record of success then watching the game isn't critical. Find out who your "source" likes in the game and work to get the best number. If you are originating numbers (i.e. making an independent opinion/power ratings) watching the games is very important. Of course, you don't have to watch the game while it's being played. If you only watch the actual plays in the game it will take less than an hour per.
August 16th, 2013 at 7:43:40 AM
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I know there are people like me who bet like me out there like Billy Walters(although I dont have nearly the success rate as he does)..I was wondering if any of those people are here.
Also I find very little is helpful by watching the game. If i bet baseball and I feel the other team has better pitchers and hitters(all stats)..and they lose...when they commit 3 errors in the 9th. Or Kershaw for the Dodgers has a bad night and gives up 3 home runs.....did I learn anything by watching for 3 hours? Really what did I learn by watching the game for 3 hours. Or In football, Brady throws 3 interceptions and loses to the Jets....what did I learn that wasnt in the box score. I can see that they had no running game from the stats, and can see he had to throw alot and the other team keyed in on it. Did I need to sit for 3 hours and watch it?
I am not discounting that alot of people go the route of partying and having fun and watching while betting...which is fine. I am not discounting the "fun factor' for those looking primarily for fun.
I already researched all he stats beforehand. I read the boxscore, and perhaps the artlcle attached to the boxscore(yahoo) detailing important parts of the game.
thats all I need. For football I watch the NFL channel and get a very consensed cross sections of some major plays.( a bout 2 minites worth at most)...as they run down the games of the day.
Otherwise I research, I bet, and move on with life. The only favorite teams I have are the teams I have money on for any specific day.
Also I find very little is helpful by watching the game. If i bet baseball and I feel the other team has better pitchers and hitters(all stats)..and they lose...when they commit 3 errors in the 9th. Or Kershaw for the Dodgers has a bad night and gives up 3 home runs.....did I learn anything by watching for 3 hours? Really what did I learn by watching the game for 3 hours. Or In football, Brady throws 3 interceptions and loses to the Jets....what did I learn that wasnt in the box score. I can see that they had no running game from the stats, and can see he had to throw alot and the other team keyed in on it. Did I need to sit for 3 hours and watch it?
I am not discounting that alot of people go the route of partying and having fun and watching while betting...which is fine. I am not discounting the "fun factor' for those looking primarily for fun.
I already researched all he stats beforehand. I read the boxscore, and perhaps the artlcle attached to the boxscore(yahoo) detailing important parts of the game.
thats all I need. For football I watch the NFL channel and get a very consensed cross sections of some major plays.( a bout 2 minites worth at most)...as they run down the games of the day.
Otherwise I research, I bet, and move on with life. The only favorite teams I have are the teams I have money on for any specific day.
August 16th, 2013 at 8:41:15 AM
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as we chat, there are millions of cleveland browns fans thinking this is going to be :the year" There are millions of KC fans thinking the same. Millions of Jacksonville fans thinking this is "their year" and a percentage of thsoe millions are willing to put money where their mouth is to prove thir great confidence in their "favorite " team.
Someone on another board was crowing that "his team"....alabama in college is "awesome". That may be true..and they will win alot of games....But they will probablylose more than they win when it comes to the spread.
alot of people attach to their "awesome teams" and bet with their allegence rather than the facts.....as if betting alabama willNOT beat their opponent by 22 points is sacreligious.
Someone on another board was crowing that "his team"....alabama in college is "awesome". That may be true..and they will win alot of games....But they will probablylose more than they win when it comes to the spread.
alot of people attach to their "awesome teams" and bet with their allegence rather than the facts.....as if betting alabama willNOT beat their opponent by 22 points is sacreligious.
August 16th, 2013 at 9:21:39 AM
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Quote: LarrySMillions of Jacksonville fans thinking this is "their year"
Now your making it up, there's not millions of Jacksonville fans.
Quote:Someone on another board was crowing that "his team"....alabama in college is "awesome". That may be true..and they will win alot of games....But they will probablylose more than they win when it comes to the spread.
They should go about 50/50 against the spread. Roughly.
Quote:alot of people attach to their "awesome teams" and bet with their allegence rather than the facts.....as if betting alabama willNOT beat their opponent by 22 points is sacreligious.
Sure, but watching the game film allows you to learn more than a mere box score and report can tell you. For some bettors at least. -Why- a team had no ground game is as useful as knowing that they didn't. Knowing why Brady threw three picks (tight man coverage in the middle, or lots of pressure from the outside pass rusher) will give you clues for if he might struggle next week against a different team. Watching that stuff in the highlights might work as well.
Or it might not for you at all, and your doing fine with the stats, box core and summaries, with knowledge of the lines and how you handicap.
I agree there's no reason to watch the game itself, and being dispassionate about the game helps a lot.
I don't believe there is 'one way' to bet sports successfully. And certainly not just one way to bet sports.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 16th, 2013 at 12:00:24 PM
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They should go about 50/50 against the spread. Roughly.
>>
alabama the national champion will get a little extra boost on the spread by "the man". Being natonal champions ebveryone or almost everyone will be on the bandwagon and the man knows this andf spreads will be awfull.
I still think as with most national champions..they will lose more for that reason via the over inflated spread
>>
alabama the national champion will get a little extra boost on the spread by "the man". Being natonal champions ebveryone or almost everyone will be on the bandwagon and the man knows this andf spreads will be awfull.
I still think as with most national champions..they will lose more for that reason via the over inflated spread
August 16th, 2013 at 10:40:37 PM
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I appreciate your comment on watching the game. However for example if someone beats New England in the first week, the film is out there for all subsequent opponents to see. Does that mean NE will not win another game because the film shows the formula to beat them? Each week adjustments are made on both sides and you can never guess what game plan will be adopted by either team offensively or defensively.
August 16th, 2013 at 10:40:39 PM
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duplicate
August 17th, 2013 at 5:48:58 AM
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Curious if you also wager on college football? As most know, turnovers play a major role in both college and the NFL. Another stat the "professional"s use is defense againist the run. But turnovers are big.
August 17th, 2013 at 6:28:46 AM
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There are countless random events within a game. Therefore a random game. Random -vig= you lose.
Each day is better than the next
August 18th, 2013 at 4:58:32 PM
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yes there are countless random events within a game and generally the bad bounces, missed calls even out to the point where talent will determine the outcome.
If there is a blown call on the last play of the game, or a random unforseen event...there were still a hundred other plays beforehand that helped determine the outcome of the game. Plays where a more talented player takes advantage of a less talented player. Or a more talented play caller , calls an unexpected play.
Yes a random bounce of the ball can help determine a game. But a hundred other plays also determine it as well.
The play calling in football is not a random act. And the players onthe field are not put out there randomly. Therefore since these are not just a random group of equally talented people running random plays/////there is more to betting sports than trying to gauge totally random events as in the spin of a roulette wheel.
If there is a blown call on the last play of the game, or a random unforseen event...there were still a hundred other plays beforehand that helped determine the outcome of the game. Plays where a more talented player takes advantage of a less talented player. Or a more talented play caller , calls an unexpected play.
Yes a random bounce of the ball can help determine a game. But a hundred other plays also determine it as well.
The play calling in football is not a random act. And the players onthe field are not put out there randomly. Therefore since these are not just a random group of equally talented people running random plays/////there is more to betting sports than trying to gauge totally random events as in the spin of a roulette wheel.
August 18th, 2013 at 4:59:45 PM
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Random also doesn't mean that there isn't an edge to be had.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 18th, 2013 at 5:05:38 PM
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then the generality "you lose" is just that a poorly thought out quip with little substance
August 18th, 2013 at 5:25:44 PM
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Quote: LarrySthen the generality "you lose" is just that a poorly thought out quip with little substance
Indeed.
It firstly pre-supposes a game marked with a +5 home dog is a 50/50 around that line. I'd warrant that it's not. The hard part (hahaha) is working out what the odds should be at various point spreads, for that game.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 19th, 2013 at 4:15:35 AM
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Quote: thecesspitIndeed.
It firstly pre-supposes a game marked with a +5 home dog is a 50/50 around that line. I'd warrant that it's not. The hard part (hahaha) is working out what the odds should be at various point spreads, for that game.
There are many people who claim to do just that. However, as was mentioned, there are many other random events which occur after the betting window closes.
August 19th, 2013 at 5:29:03 PM
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Quote: NokTangThere are many people who claim to do just that. However, as was mentioned, there are many other random events which occur after the betting window closes.
Betting on sports takes into account talent levels and play calling, and abilities to exploit matchups.
its rather evvident. The ability to catch a ball, or throw a ball, or block or tackle or hit a ball, or fumple a ball or call a correct play, or exploit a matchup is all taken into account when analyzing the games in order to come up with a pick
random events like a bird flying into a pitchers face as he releases a ball, or a meteor hitting a football midair preventing a field goal only happens 30 or 40 times a year.
August 19th, 2013 at 6:11:39 PM
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larry, i don't bet sports but i bet a lot of horses. It is imperative that i watch most races as i can pick up things for next week. Wouldn't this also work in watching sports????
get second you pig
August 19th, 2013 at 8:05:37 PM
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Quote: LarrySa meteor hitting a football midair preventing a field goal only happens 30 or 40 times a year.
I watch lots of football and see lots of wacky stuff, but never seen a meteor hit a football midair. That would be kinda cool.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
August 19th, 2013 at 9:32:09 PM
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I havent been given any good reasons as of yet that are compelling. Maybe in races its different,. Seeinga horse lose that gets boxed in on the far turn, or got checked on the home stretche can help you throw out that race and maybe take a chance next time on that horse. If you saw the race you can see those things happening in the 95 seconds of the entire event.
Watching an entire game for 3 hours? I stilll dontknow what I would see that I couldnt see even better in a detailed box score.
If watching the game was really important...I couldnt bet on 4-5 games on the same day. I couldnt give them the attention they deserve....if they deserve any attention at all.
As I said before...in football....New ENGLAND LOSES THE FIRST WEEK.....and there is film of the game that all subsequent opponents can see. Does that mean NE never wins again because the opponents see the film and now have a recipe to beat NE? nOPE...the gameplan changes next week. if I watched that game would I automatically not bet NE the next week.
In my opinion, watching the game and feeling the emotion of a loss may make me bet differently the next week ..more emotionally..than if I viewed a dispassionate box score.
I just want the facts....no emotion..
so I stay away from the game
Watching an entire game for 3 hours? I stilll dontknow what I would see that I couldnt see even better in a detailed box score.
If watching the game was really important...I couldnt bet on 4-5 games on the same day. I couldnt give them the attention they deserve....if they deserve any attention at all.
As I said before...in football....New ENGLAND LOSES THE FIRST WEEK.....and there is film of the game that all subsequent opponents can see. Does that mean NE never wins again because the opponents see the film and now have a recipe to beat NE? nOPE...the gameplan changes next week. if I watched that game would I automatically not bet NE the next week.
In my opinion, watching the game and feeling the emotion of a loss may make me bet differently the next week ..more emotionally..than if I viewed a dispassionate box score.
I just want the facts....no emotion..
so I stay away from the game
August 19th, 2013 at 9:51:39 PM
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Watching the game you can see how well the offensive line keeps the pressure off the quarterback. He may have only had a 60% completion rate in the box, but on film, he was under defensive pressure 20% of the time. Knowing how well the offensive line protect the QB and open holes for the RB can be helpful.
I'll have to think about the defense. They may have been zoning it that game because they were able to shut down the running game during 3rd and short.
I think watching games will give you things that don't show in the stats.
I'll have to think about the defense. They may have been zoning it that game because they were able to shut down the running game during 3rd and short.
I think watching games will give you things that don't show in the stats.
Buffering...
August 19th, 2013 at 10:26:36 PM
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how many times do you watch in your example the offesive line do a great job protecting and your team wins. Then the same 2 teams play and the other team wins. Usually because the original winning team doesnt want to change a successful winning gameplan, and keeps things the same..and the other team makes adjustments and counters. Season splits are very common for teams meeting twice in a season. Sometimes the road teams win, sometimes the home teams win.
So whatever you saw in one week...the next week adjustments are made on both sides. And 7 weeks down the road you may not even recognize the performace as the team you saw 7 weeks earlier.
If you like your team and have a favorite, watching the game is good for enjoyment which is fine.
But for serious sports bettors who have no favorite team.....watching the enitre game is not essential if you have a good analysis of stats, weather, and talent. In fact the emotions of watching the entire game can cloud your future betting.
by watching the game you may be able to see visually why you won or lost the bet THAT DAY....but it wonthelp you much for next week or the next time these 2 teams meet in 4 weeks. Stats are way more helpful than the emotional rollercoaster you go thru watching a game from beginning to end
So whatever you saw in one week...the next week adjustments are made on both sides. And 7 weeks down the road you may not even recognize the performace as the team you saw 7 weeks earlier.
If you like your team and have a favorite, watching the game is good for enjoyment which is fine.
But for serious sports bettors who have no favorite team.....watching the enitre game is not essential if you have a good analysis of stats, weather, and talent. In fact the emotions of watching the entire game can cloud your future betting.
by watching the game you may be able to see visually why you won or lost the bet THAT DAY....but it wonthelp you much for next week or the next time these 2 teams meet in 4 weeks. Stats are way more helpful than the emotional rollercoaster you go thru watching a game from beginning to end
August 19th, 2013 at 11:22:10 PM
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Quote: NokTangThere are many people who claim to do just that. However, as was mentioned, there are many other random events which occur after the betting window closes.
Of course. But random events don't mean you can get an edge. It does mean the game is not totally predictable.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
August 20th, 2013 at 7:21:31 AM
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The reason it works in horse racing is the exact same reason it would work in sports.
Everyone has access to the box scores and stats, so you can't get an advantage that way.
I really don't think you can even get a decent advantage betting on pro football, because there is no way you know more than the linemakers do. The only time you can get a slight advantage is when the line is adjusted because dumb money is coming in. Even then, we're talking about a small percentage.
If you're not interested in watching the event at all, isn't there better ways to spend your money? Stocks?
Everyone has access to the box scores and stats, so you can't get an advantage that way.
I really don't think you can even get a decent advantage betting on pro football, because there is no way you know more than the linemakers do. The only time you can get a slight advantage is when the line is adjusted because dumb money is coming in. Even then, we're talking about a small percentage.
If you're not interested in watching the event at all, isn't there better ways to spend your money? Stocks?
August 20th, 2013 at 4:37:25 PM
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Quote: FinsRuleThe reason it works in horse racing is the exact same reason it would work in sports.
Everyone has access to the box scores and stats, so you can't get an advantage that way.
I really don't think you can even get a decent advantage betting on pro football, because there is no way you know more than the linemakers do. The only time you can get a slight advantage is when the line is adjusted because dumb money is coming in. Even then, we're talking about a small percentage.
If you're not interested in watching the event at all, isn't there better ways to spend your money? Stocks?
Your remarks remind me of dog racing fans. There were always a few in the "crowd" selling picks, guys who had stacks of old programs, and watched each and every race on the TV screen making their notes. Sad part is they didn't know which dog had been fed popcorn to slow him/her down! Try breathing fast after you eat popcorn....easily the simplest "sport" in the world to fix, dog racing. You eliminate three or four dogs and you have a lock on some money. You can't fix it so a particular dog wins, but you can certainly fix it where some have no chance of being in the money. You can't breath you can't run. Popcorn. Remarkable eh mate?
August 20th, 2013 at 6:03:55 PM
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Quote: NokTangYour remarks remind me of dog racing fans. There were always a few in the "crowd" selling picks, guys who had stacks of old programs, and watched each and every race on the TV screen making their notes. Sad part is they didn't know which dog had been fed popcorn to slow him/her down! Try breathing fast after you eat popcorn....easily the simplest "sport" in the world to fix, dog racing. You eliminate three or four dogs and you have a lock on some money. You can't fix it so a particular dog wins, but you can certainly fix it where some have no chance of being in the money. You can't breath you can't run. Popcorn. Remarkable eh mate?
the biggest difference between dog races and horse races is that interference is allowed in dog races. Interference in horse racing involves fines and suspensions.
Interferences wipes out ahlf the field in the first turn in dog races. Who can predict that.
Just as in regular sports...there is human error in horse racing also. Bad starts, getting boxed in, gettibng caught on the outside, going too fast to start. A jockey can give a very good horse a bad ride. And conversely a great jockey can get a horse on an "off day". Maybe the horse has a upset stomach. Who the hell knows..the horse cant talk. So you can look at all the film, but if the jockey doesnt perform well or the horse under performs, you have a loss.
Same in regular sports, sometimes the best team underperforms. No matter how much film you watch, the best pitchers lose. The best teams lose to inferior teams. dodgers lost to miami yesterday. tEXas and their top pticher lost to seatle on sunday.
I bet the superbowl last year and never saw baltimore play a single game all year. If the jets play new england in the 4th week of the season....I may bet on that game even though I would not have seen either of those teams play as I live in ca. Should I have watched the previous 2 games of each team in order to make a good bet? I would think not. And if thats the case...then what would I gain by watching the game. I didnt need to watch the previous 6 games in order to make my bet...so why would I need to watch the game. The stats will be available to me...and the stats are what count. Thats what "the man" uses to make his odds...that and a good dose of public opinion. Because "americas teams" tend to get unrealistic spreads attached to them.
August 20th, 2013 at 7:12:33 PM
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Billy Walters is the guy Michael Konik wrote the book "The Smart Money" about. Walters does not watch football games. Instead he watches computer simulations of football games and bets accordingly. He's the most successful sports bettor of them all.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 20th, 2013 at 8:53:14 PM
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of course the pros dont watch the games. If that was the case if they wanted to bet the KC sandiego game in the middle of the season, they would have to order videos of the games before placing a bet. Well no one does that. So if you are not viewing past games in order to make a bet this week....why the heck would you watch this weeks games at all.(other than for enjoyment if you get a kick over agonizing over each play). If each week you bet 4 football games(pro and college)....if you are not viewing film of each team over the previous weeks....why do you need to view the game that you already put your money on. You already layed out the cash....a little too late to be analysing the teams playing.
stats rule
and stats used in a computer sim is great I guess...i dont have access to that type of software..but if its based on stats...its all good
stats rule
and stats used in a computer sim is great I guess...i dont have access to that type of software..but if its based on stats...its all good
August 21st, 2013 at 4:34:53 AM
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When I read "The Smart Money" I had absolutely no clue who this big sports bettor was that Konik was describing. Konik used a fictional name for him and still to this day will neither confirm nor deny that it was Billy Walters. But Walters came out of the closet in a 60 Minutes interview in 2011.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 21st, 2013 at 8:24:55 AM
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If anyone has the DirecTV NFL Sunday Ticket package, they replay every NFL game during the week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday?)
They only show the plays and cut out all the idle time. An entire game can be watched in 25-28 minutes. While in my office, I have this on my TV continuously. I enjoy it, and there is some handicapping value too.
They do not replay the games played on Thursday night, Sunday night, or Monday night. Only games played Sunday afternoon.
They only show the plays and cut out all the idle time. An entire game can be watched in 25-28 minutes. While in my office, I have this on my TV continuously. I enjoy it, and there is some handicapping value too.
They do not replay the games played on Thursday night, Sunday night, or Monday night. Only games played Sunday afternoon.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
August 21st, 2013 at 4:28:01 PM
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greaty news for fans/fanatics
not really valuable to serious bettors.
billy walters already owned multiple golf course way before the sunday ticket package was available
not really valuable to serious bettors.
billy walters already owned multiple golf course way before the sunday ticket package was available
August 21st, 2013 at 6:54:57 PM
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In the Walters interview, the technique of making a bet just big enough on one side to move the line in that direction, then once the line moves making a much bigger bet on the other side, is called a flinch bet. Not revealed in the interview, but was in the book, is Walters has a team of computer geeks tracking every stat imaginable and running million game simulations.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 22nd, 2013 at 4:30:20 PM
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Quote: mickeycrimmIn the Walters interview, the technique of making a bet just big enough on one side to move the line in that direction, then once the line moves making a much bigger bet on the other side, is called a flinch bet. .
Do you actually believe such a fairy tale?
August 22nd, 2013 at 5:32:15 PM
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I saw that 60 minute interview. being able to move the line with 6 figure bets is beyond my scope. But the key for me was that he is dispassionate. He finds no reason to agonize over the game He and his people are stats people, and his success has been fueled by knowing which stats to key on.
August 22nd, 2013 at 8:08:44 PM
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Quote: NokTangDo you actually believe such a fairy tale?[/q
definitely not a fairy tale....a friend of mine works for them as a runner.get second you pig
August 22nd, 2013 at 8:38:51 PM
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Quote: NokTangDo you actually believe such a fairy tale?
I had the flinch bet explained to me long before I heard of Billy Walters. To much money coming in on one side triggers line moves. I once made a $55 bet on a favorite at -6. Within a few seconds the line moved to -6.5. Do I think they figured me for a sharp sports bettor and they better move the line? No. I figure that the money was coming in lopsided on the favorite and my little bet was the one that put it over the line of a predetermined amount of money and triggered the line move.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 23rd, 2013 at 3:45:56 AM
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The difficult part to believe was the concept that a larger bettor/group would actually place bets on one side, waiting for the line to move due to their action, and then pound the other side.
August 23rd, 2013 at 5:42:06 AM
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My last gig in Nevada was in West Wendover in 2006/7 where I was playing the full pay IGT video blackjack for the comp, .8%, quarter and dollar 9/6 Jacks progressives, Coyote Cash Mystery Progressives, Green Stamps, and 1-2 and 2-5 NL holdem. There was a small time sports betting crew there, Vinnie and Frank and a few other guys that I knew from Reno. I used to hang out with them on Sundays, during the NFL games. They taught me some of their techniques.
On one side of the street, the Wendover Nugget had a Leroy's Satellite book. That was the sharp line. Statewide, Leroy's did a huge volume. You could make a $10,,000 bet in the Nugget and the line wouldn't budge. But across the street was the Montego Bay sports book, and down the street was the Rainbow Sports Book. They were both owned by the Peppermill properties. These were the soft lines. The thing about these two books was they had their own money pool. The money wasn't pooled with the Peppermill in Reno. These two books had to contend with Salt Lake City bettors who never seen a favorite or an over they didn't like. They pounded the favorites and the overs.
Vinnie and Frank taught me when and why lines move. According to them, when the line would go up on Sunday night in the Boyd properties in Las Vegas for NFL games the next Sunday, there was a $5000 cap on the betting. The book is looking to see which way the wiseguys are going to bet so they can adjust the line before they open it up to $20,000 max bets. There would be a ton of wiseguys sitting there waiting for them to put the lines up. By Monday the lines would be hammered into place. Then the lines would sit there all week pretty much never moving. Maybe an injury report on Thursday could move a line.
In West Wendover, starting about two hours before game time, and leading right up to game time, the Salt Lake City bettors started coming into the Montego and Rainbow books and pounding the favorites and overs. It was very lopsided action. Frank was in the Montego book and Vinnie was in the Nugget book. They were in phone contact. Take a game where the favorite was at -5 all week in the Nugget but -5.5 in Montego. The SLC bettors would pound the favorite in Montego and the Rainbow, the line would move to -6, then -6.5, then -7. Frank would bet the soft line first taking the dog and the 7 points. Then on the other side of the street Vinnie would bet the favorite at -5. They had their middle locked in. According to Frank and Vinnie, West Wendover was middlers heaven. And they worked the basketball season too.
It was small time action though. While you could make a huge bet in the Nugget, the betting on sides and totals in Montego and the Rainbow was capped at $550.
On one side of the street, the Wendover Nugget had a Leroy's Satellite book. That was the sharp line. Statewide, Leroy's did a huge volume. You could make a $10,,000 bet in the Nugget and the line wouldn't budge. But across the street was the Montego Bay sports book, and down the street was the Rainbow Sports Book. They were both owned by the Peppermill properties. These were the soft lines. The thing about these two books was they had their own money pool. The money wasn't pooled with the Peppermill in Reno. These two books had to contend with Salt Lake City bettors who never seen a favorite or an over they didn't like. They pounded the favorites and the overs.
Vinnie and Frank taught me when and why lines move. According to them, when the line would go up on Sunday night in the Boyd properties in Las Vegas for NFL games the next Sunday, there was a $5000 cap on the betting. The book is looking to see which way the wiseguys are going to bet so they can adjust the line before they open it up to $20,000 max bets. There would be a ton of wiseguys sitting there waiting for them to put the lines up. By Monday the lines would be hammered into place. Then the lines would sit there all week pretty much never moving. Maybe an injury report on Thursday could move a line.
In West Wendover, starting about two hours before game time, and leading right up to game time, the Salt Lake City bettors started coming into the Montego and Rainbow books and pounding the favorites and overs. It was very lopsided action. Frank was in the Montego book and Vinnie was in the Nugget book. They were in phone contact. Take a game where the favorite was at -5 all week in the Nugget but -5.5 in Montego. The SLC bettors would pound the favorite in Montego and the Rainbow, the line would move to -6, then -6.5, then -7. Frank would bet the soft line first taking the dog and the 7 points. Then on the other side of the street Vinnie would bet the favorite at -5. They had their middle locked in. According to Frank and Vinnie, West Wendover was middlers heaven. And they worked the basketball season too.
It was small time action though. While you could make a huge bet in the Nugget, the betting on sides and totals in Montego and the Rainbow was capped at $550.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 23rd, 2013 at 6:40:51 AM
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Syndicates place bets in order to move the line and then bet bigger on the other side all the time.
August 23rd, 2013 at 6:42:04 AM
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Says who ? Books are not DUMB !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
August 23rd, 2013 at 6:45:40 AM
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Books aren't that smart. The majority of books just copy the opener and adjust from there. Numbers move faster and the close is sharper than ever before, but I don't think the openers are any sharper. If books were confident in the opening number they would accept the same bet amount the whole time but they don't.
August 23rd, 2013 at 6:46:12 AM
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Walters was also a roulette AP.
From wiki:
In 1986, when a professional gambling team headed by Billy Walters won $3.8 million using the system on an old roulette wheel at the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City, every casino in the world took notice, and within one year had switched to the new low-profile wheel.
From wiki:
In 1986, when a professional gambling team headed by Billy Walters won $3.8 million using the system on an old roulette wheel at the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City, every casino in the world took notice, and within one year had switched to the new low-profile wheel.
August 23rd, 2013 at 8:05:50 AM
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If you are talking about pro football...its harder to move a line and harder to move it significantly to the point where you can catch a middle by playing voth sides.
Because the volume of money bet on pro football is huge.
In the 60 minutes interview, if i remeber right they showed an example of college basketball. On some days during the week there are 40-50 college basketball games available to bet. Some rather obscure. I would think it would be easier to affect those type games.
Because the volume of money bet on pro football is huge.
In the 60 minutes interview, if i remeber right they showed an example of college basketball. On some days during the week there are 40-50 college basketball games available to bet. Some rather obscure. I would think it would be easier to affect those type games.
August 23rd, 2013 at 8:49:02 PM
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Quote: LarrySIf you are talking about pro football...its harder to move a line and harder to move it significantly to the point where you can catch a middle by playing voth sides.
Because the volume of money bet on pro football is huge.
In the 60 minutes interview, if i remeber right they showed an example of college basketball. On some days during the week there are 40-50 college basketball games available to bet. Some rather obscure. I would think it would be easier to affect those type games.
Good points. We must also remember that college basketball has much lower limits than NFL games.
My mental thoughts are not in complete context with today's computers and the internet and smart phones. One can assume if an NFL line moves at say the Wynn, all other sports books know it within seconds. I also see Money Mayweather betting a million dollars on a game and involvement of a Wall Street firm in Cantor who took a major hit September 11th, 2001. Perhaps when I read that a "syndicate" moves a line then reverses etc. I just don't have the context of such sums of money being wagered.
On this same note, we often read disclosures on parlay cards about limits on the payout aggregates. Have than been any recent incidents where a sports book didn't pay out its parlay card winners?
August 23rd, 2013 at 8:51:51 PM
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Quote: LarrySIf you are talking about pro football...its harder to move a line and harder to move it significantly to the point where you can catch a middle by playing voth sides.
Because the volume of money bet on pro football is huge.
We were referring to moving the line not to middle but to establish a more favorable line for the big wager. I still have my doubts but don't really "know" so no point in going on and on about it. Moving off 3 or 7 seems dangerous for a sports book in football.
August 23rd, 2013 at 9:35:33 PM
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Yes, they are, you're mistaken.Quote: BuzzardSays who ? Books are not DUMB !
August 23rd, 2013 at 9:54:02 PM
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Quote: JIMMYFOCKERYes, they are, you're mistaken.
As a general rule, don't we assume they make/earn five percent of the total amount wagered thinking out over some amount of time.
This assumes a ten percent vig......most "bookies" will make the "dumb" statement to the players they only "pay ten percent when you lose" but it's five of the total, don't be fooled mates.
110,000.usd wagered on one side(100,000 plus "ten percent if you lose", remember a bookie gives "credit")
110,000.usd wagered on the other side ( ditto )
That's 200,000 wagered
You the "book" win 10,000. no matter who wins/loses (over time)
10,000. is five percent of the 200,000.usd.
Don't be fooled by some of the salesmen in the world who can't add to two.
August 24th, 2013 at 12:14:20 AM
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There is a thing called Keep It Simple Stupid. So I will keep it simple. Whatever the closing lines are, if you give me two extra points on the dogs, I will bet with you until the cows come home.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
August 25th, 2013 at 2:08:05 AM
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i have no first hand info on the goings on for bets this high. But I would think that a million dollar bet on football has to be specially accepted/booked by somone other than the guy at the sportsbook kiosk. So for large bets on college basketball..the same would apply.
