Also, if you follow my one win and done method then you would be a net winner during that period of $178.50.......I don't think that's too shabby considering that they are only $10 bets.
Quote: steeldcoNot trying to be argumentative, but what makes you think it's simplistic? Particularly since you don't know what it is. What am I missing?
I'm basing my assumption on what you have said you are using as your input. There are so many factors that could be considered that aren't included in the free data from Arlington Park.
Arlington Park for 08/04/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Holycow Shes Sassy 1st $19.00
2 Are You Dancing 5th -$10.00
3 Great Red Beauty 4th -$10.00
4 Annie Bellum 2nd -$10.00
5 Millennium Star 3rd -$10.00
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Latika Love 2nd -$10.00
10
11
12
Total -$31.00
Trifecta Net -$146.10
I've stopped tracking show bets since that seems to be a hopeless cause........
I will also be excluding more horses in the trifecta plays since what I have is not working.
Arlington Park for 08/08/13
Race # Alternate
1 Seventh Son Ex: 5 & 6
2 0
3 0
4 Four Left Feet Ex: 1 & 4
5 Beauty of Scarlet Ex: 4 & 6
6 Uncle Jeep Ex: 5 & 6
7 0
8 0
9 Turbalo Ex: 7 & 9
Quote: FinsRuleI've got the 3 in the 8th race today. What do you think about horses that have already broken their maiden, but were DQ'd, and still get to race in maiden races? Should be a lock, right?
The old 'Mortal Lock' play. Subject horse did beat non winners and is now is back in against non winners. Makes sense therefore the horse has no chance.
Quote: FinsRuleI've got the 3 in the 8th race today. What do you think about horses that have already broken their maiden, but were DQ'd, and still get to race in maiden races? Should be a lock, right?
Assuming the 3 and the 7 go off at near M/L, I'd have my money on 7. I'd take the 7 at 5/1 or better, or the 3 at 5/2 or better.
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Seventh Son 1st $10.00
2 0
3 0
4 Four Left Feet 2nd -$10.00
5 Beauty of Scarlet 7th -$10.00
6 Uncle Jeep 4th -$10.00
7 0
8 0
9 Turbalo 7th -$10.00
10
11
12
Total -$30.00
Trifecta Net -$132.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$359.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$134.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-3035.45
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Son of Pearl Ex: 4 & 5
3 Sir Kipling Ex: 3 & 5
4 0
5 Super Soldier Ex: 4 & 5
6 Dynamic Royal Ex: 2 & 8
7 He's Dann Good Ex: 1 & 8
8 Hattaash Ex: 10 & 11
9 0
Arlington Park for 08/11/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 0
2 Son of Pearl 1st $34.00
3 Sir Kipling 3rd -$10.00
4 0
5 Super Soldier 3rd -$10.00
6 Dynamic Royal 3rd -$10.00
7 He's Dann Good 2nd -$10.00
8 Hattaash scratch $0.00
9 0
10
11
12
Total -$6.00
Trifecta Net $87.20
YTD Results:
Alternate -$365.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$168.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-2948.25
Arlington Park for 08/15/13
Race # Alternate
1 Delux Deelite Ex: 3 & 7
2 Carnival Kitten Ex: 1 & 7
3 Any Given Time Ex: 5 & 7
4 Unbridled Vicar Ex: 6 & 9
5 J Jett Ex: 2 & 3
6 Northscape Ex: 2 & 6
7 Cyberphobe Ex: 7 & 9
8 Peso Ex: 2 & 4
9 0
Arlington Park for 08/15/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Delux Deelite 3rd -$10.00
2 Carnival Kitten 2nd -$10.00
3 Any Given Time 7th -$10.00
4 Unbridled Vicar 3rd -$10.00
5 J Jett 5th -$10.00
6 Northscape 2nd -$10.00
7 Cyberphobe 6th -$10.00
8 Peso 7th -$10.00
9 0
10
11
12
Total -$80.00
Trifecta Net -$42.55
YTD Results:
Alternate -$445.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$88.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-2990.8
Race # Alternate
1 A Shot Away Ex: 2 & 6
2 0
3 Viva Bertha Ex: 2 & 5
4 0
5 Blue Forty Ex: 2 & 3
6 Francois Ex: 3 & 4 & 10
7 0
8 Silver Encore Ex: 2 & 3 & 7
9 Responsive Eye Ex: 2 & 9 & 10 & 13
s Picks:
Arlington Park for 08/16/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 A Shot Away 1st $11.00
2 0 $0.00
3 Viva Bertha 3rd -$10.00
4 0
5 Blue Forty 2nd -$10.00
6 Francois 1st $17.00
7 0
8 Silver Encore 3rd -$10.00
9 Responsive Eye 7th -$10.00
10
11
12
Total -$12.00
Trifecta Net -$162.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$457.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$99.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-3152.8
Arlington Park for 08/17/13
Race # Alternate
1 Believe in Kitten Ex: 3 & 6
2 Coalport Ex: 4 & 7
3 Fastestwhogetspaid Ex: 3 & 4 & 5 & 9
4 0
5 0
6 My Option Ex: 2 & 10
7 Ioya Bigtime Ex: 3 & 4
8 0
9 0
10 Little Mike Ex: None
11 Gold Edge Ex: 2 & 3 & 5
12 J. Pa Ex: 2 & 3 & 7 & 10
Arlington Park for 08/17/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Believe in Kitten 5th -$10.00
2 Coalport 1st $15.00
3 Fastestwhogetspaid 9th -$10.00
4 0
5 0
6 My Option 3rd -$10.00
7 Ioya Bigtime 6th -$10.00
8 0
9 0
10 Little Mike 6th -$10.00
11 Gold Edge -$10.00
12 J. Pa scratch
Total -$45.00
Trifecta Net -$734.40
YTD Results:
Alternate -$502.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$104.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-3887.2
Race # Alternate
1 Sancerre Ex: 7
2 Guava Girl Ex: 3
3 0
4 Vision of Liz Ex: 5 & 7
5 0
6 Mr. Mischief Ex: 2 & 4 & 6
7 Vino Limbo Tango Ex: 2 & 3 & 6 & 8
8 Don't Slip Ex: 7 & 8
9 0
Quote: JW17I hit the Beverly D/Arlington Million double paid a little light IMO. Got lucky with them taking down the 10. Little Mike isnt looking like he was.
I did pretty poorly yesterday. The Beverly D is the only thing that made it not a horrific day. My picks were okay, I just had a lot of picks where I had the exacta/tri and had the 1st, 3rd, 4th finishers in there. What can you do, it was a great day at AP yesterday.
Arlington Park for 08/18/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Sancerre 1st $29.00
2 Guava Girl 1st $35.00
3 0
4 Vision of Liz 3rd -$10.00
5 0
6 Mr. Mischief 3rd -$10.00
7 Vino Limbo Tango 6th -$10.00
8 Don't Slip 8th -$10.00
9 0
10
11
12
Net $24.00
Trifecta Net $60.60
Arlington Park for 08/22/13
Race # Alternate
1 Sydneyrella Ex: 5
2 0
3 0
4 Stay Foolish Ex: 3
5 Special Chance Ex: 1 & 8
6 0
7 Mistie Royale Ex: 2 & 6 & 7
8 0
9 Little Michael Ex: 4 & 6 & 8
SUPER SKY broke in the air and made light contact with DUFF ONE right afterwards,. made a dash over to and
settled along the rail, didn't stay long, drifting back to the outside, continued to race from off the inside, pilot intermittently tapping the right shoulder with the
stick got set down spinning into the stretch, wandered closer to the middle of the course during the ensuing furlong, displayed some belated energy to take
the show.
3rd by 3 at 5 1/2 on turf MSW Same as today
Quote: FinsRuleI did pretty poorly yesterday. The Beverly D is the only thing that made it not a horrific day. My picks were okay, I just had a lot of picks where I had the exacta/tri and had the 1st, 3rd, 4th finishers in there. What can you do, it was a great day at AP yesterday.
OMG I feel your pain, that double salvaged a bad day for me. I hit 6-7 races where I played the tri and had 1st, 2nd, NO 3RD!!! I just have to hit that damn all button. You would think I would have learned after the first 3 in a row happened like that.
Arlington Park for 08/22/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Sydneyrella 1st $29.00
2 0
3 0
4 Stay Foolish scratch $0.00
5 Special Chance 2nd -$10.00
6 0
7 Mistie Royale 4th -$10.00
8 0
9 Little Michael 8th -$10.00
10
11
12
Net -$1.00
Trifecta Net -$79.00
Stop at 1st. Win $29.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$479.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$162.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-3905.6
Arlington Park for 08/23/13
Race # Alternate
1 Anychanceatadance Ex: 3 & 6
2 Devils Tower Ex: 2 & 6 & 7
3 Bethany Belle Ex: 1 & 2 & 8
4 Lewis' Anna Ex: 4 & 7
5 Salutethehero Ex: 1 & 3 & 5
6 U Step Aside Ex: 1 & 4 & 5 & 7
7 Mastman Ex: 2 & 5 & 7
8 0
9 My Ex Ex: 2 & 3 & 4 & 5
Arlington Park for 08/23/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Anychanceatadance 1st $22.00
2 Devils Tower 1st $79.00
3 Bethany Belle 2nd -$10.00
4 Lewis' Anna 3rd -$10.00
5 Salutethehero 2nd -$10.00
6 U Step Aside 2nd -$10.00
7 Mastman 2nd -$10.00
8 0
9 My Ex 6th -$10.00
10
11
12
Net $41.00
Trifecta Net -$178.50
Stop at 1st. Win $22.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$438.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$184.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-4084.1
Arlington Park for 08/24/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 Holycow Shes Sassy Ex: 5
3 0
4 Delightful Daisy Ex: 2
5 Artful Bee Ex: 5 & 6
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Muppet Man Ex: 3 & 6
10 Kepi Ex: 4 & 5 & 6
11 Adios Nardo Ex: 1 & 6 & 7
I would have thought that I'd have made a bundle on the trifectas.....instead they continue to suck.
Yesterday's Results:
Arlington Park for 08/24/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 0
2 Holycow Shes Sassy 3rd -$10.00
3 0
4 Delightful Daisy 1st $30.00
5 Artful Bee 1st $20.00
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 Muppet Man 5th -$10.00
10 Kepi 1st $21.00
11 Adios Nardo 1st $25.00
12
Net $76.00
Trifecta Net -$83.90
Stop at 1st. Win $20.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$362.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$204.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-4168
Arlington Park for 08/25/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Military Legend Ex: 1 & 5
4 Merilore Ex: 2 & 4
5 0
6 Turbalo Ex: None
7 Chica Silver Ex: None
8 Warbird Ex: None
9 Catfeinated Ex: 3
Arlington Park for 08/25/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 0
2 0
3 Military Legend 2nd -$10.00
4 Merilore 2nd -$10.00
5 0
6 Turbalo 4th -$10.00
7 Chica Silver 3rd -$10.00
8 Warbird 1st $13.00
9 Catfeinated 3rd -$10.00
10
11
12
Net -$37.00
Trifecta Net -$484.50
Stop at 1st. Win -$27.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$399.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$177.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-4652.5
Hit a pick 3 at monmouth today which I feel paid super low. I hit race 6-7-8, the winners in these races paid to win 26.80, 28.40 and 9.80. the pick 3 only paid $531.60 for a buck. Not that I am complaining about a win, and not a big ticket (2x3x2) $12 for a buck I had it pretty cold. Any way the pick 3 for races 5-6-7 paid $1027.90 for a buck. and the winners in that sequence paid $10, 26.80, and 28.40. $.20 difference in what the winners paid. ANd yes before anyone says something, I understand win pools and pick 3 pools are different, but it still give you an idea of what something will pay. I am just saying the pick 3 I hit is half of the one before? Saddest thing is, I threw the 10 out on the ticket which would have paid $1000. Just being cheap, I did a 2x2x3 ticket instead of 3x2x3. I spend $12 instead of $18. Idiot.
Arlington Park for 08/29/13
Race # Alternate
1 0
2 0
3 Lewderhoo Ex: None
4 0
5 0
6 Son of Pearl Ex: 3 & 10
7 Collin's Smile Ex: 3 & 6
8 Twist of Silver Ex: None
9 Pranksterbdancing Ex: 1 & 7
Quote: JW17Didn't want to start a new tread to discuss this so sorry if I am hijacking.
Hit a pick 3 at monmouth today which I feel paid super low. I hit race 6-7-8, the winners in these races paid to win 26.80, 28.40 and 9.80. the pick 3 only paid $531.60 for a buck. Not that I am complaining about a win, and not a big ticket (2x3x2) $12 for a buck I had it pretty cold. Any way the pick 3 for races 5-6-7 paid $1027.90 for a buck. and the winners in that sequence paid $10, 26.80, and 28.40. $.20 difference in what the winners paid. ANd yes before anyone says something, I understand win pools and pick 3 pools are different, but it still give you an idea of what something will pay. I am just saying the pick 3 I hit is half of the one before? Saddest thing is, I threw the 10 out on the ticket which would have paid $1000. Just being cheap, I did a 2x2x3 ticket instead of 3x2x3. I spend $12 instead of $18. Idiot.
I know, I hate when I cheap out on a ticket and it hits. That puts me in a bad mood the rest of the day.
Yeah, that's a super low pick-3 payout. The parlay would have paid a ton more. I hate when that happens too...
Arlington Park for 08/29/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 0
2 0
3 Lewderhoo 2nd -$10.00
4 0
5 0
6 Son of Pearl 1st $34.00
7 Collin's Smile 8th -$10.00
8 Twist of Silver 2nd -$10.00
9 Pranksterbdancing still running -$10.00
10
11
12
Net -$6.00
Trifecta Net -$357.00
Stop at 1st. Win $24.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$405.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$201.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-5009.5
Arlington Park for 08/30/13
Race # Alternate
1 Mykukubird Ex: None
2 0
3 Kinzig Ex: None
4 Moroccan Brew Ex: None
5 0
6 Bee Home Soon Ex: 7 & 9
7 Mutasadder Ex: 2 & 5
8 0
9 Sorta Sassy Ex: 4 & 7
Arlington Park for 08/30/13
Race # Alternate To Win
1 Mykukubird 2nd -$10.00
2 0
3 Kinzig 5th -$10.00
4 Moroccan Brew 2nd -$10.00
5 0
6 Bee Home Soon 3rd -$10.00
7 Mutasadder 9th -$10.00
8 0
9 Sorta Sassy 7th -$10.00
10
11
12
Net -$60.00
Trifecta Net -$351.30
Stop at 1st. Win -$60.00
YTD Results:
Alternate -$465.10
Alternate-stop at 1st. Win +$141.9
$1 Trifecta Box $-5360.8
Arlington Park for 08/31/13
Race # Alternate
1 Vision of Liz Ex: 3
2 Love Thy Neighbor Ex: None
3 Devout Diva Ex: 5 & 8
4 Stand Up Rita Ex: 6
5 Keep 'Em Laughing Ex: 2 & 5
6 0
7 With a Twist Ex: 5 & 8
8 0
9 Hattaash Ex: None
10 0
11 Yankee Injunuity Ex: 2 & 7