Super Bowl 47 Props -- General Discussion
This thread is intended for all other prop discussion.
I have a few props tips for you, which I just bet at the Red Rock.
First score to be a touchdown -- YES. I just got -140. I put it fair at -191. The Suncoast has this at -190, which just goes to show the benefit of shopping around.
Total kicking points by J Tucker (Ravens) under 7.5. I got it at -115. I put it fair at -135.
Total punts under 9.5. I got it at -140. I put it fair at -214.
So, there you have it. Use this advice at your own risk.
Finally, here is a fun one they have at the Boyd casinos:
Total Scrabble points of the last name of the player scoring the first touchdown.
Over 9.5 -115
Under 9.5 -115
As a reminder, here are the values of the letters:
1 point: AEILNORSTU
2 points: GD
3 points: BCMP
4 points: FHVWY
5 points: K
8 points: JX
10 points: QZ
1. Pinnacle has the following lines for team to score first:
Bal +117
SF -132
If we split the different the lines would be +/- 124.5. This implies the probability Bal scores first is 44.54%. Granted, the prop is the first touchdown, but I think this is good enough for government work.
2. Let's look at the biggest scorers on both teams, not counting the kickers.
Baltimore
| Player | Scrabble Points | Points/game | Prob first to score | Un 9.5 Scr. Pts | Prob Un 9.5 Scr pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 6 | 3.8 | 0.260274 | Yes | 0.260274 |
| Torrey Smith | 10 | 3 | 0.205479 | No | 0.000000 |
| Dennis Pitta | 6 | 2.6 | 0.178082 | Yes | 0.178082 |
| Anquan Boldin | 9 | 1.7 | 0.116438 | Yes | 0.116438 |
| Jacoby Jones | 12 | 1.5 | 0.102740 | No | 0.000000 |
| Joe Flacco | 13 | 1.1 | 0.075342 | No | 0.000000 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9 | 0.9 | 0.061644 | Yes | 0.061644 |
| Total | 65 | 14.6 | 1.000000 | 0.616438 |
SF
| Player | Scrabble Points | Points/game | Prob first to score | Un 9.5 Scr. Pts | Prob Un 9.5 Scr pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 5 | 3.8 | 0.245161 | Yes | 0.245161 |
| Michael Crabtree | 12 | 3.4 | 0.219355 | No | 0.000000 |
| Vernon Davis | 9 | 1.9 | 0.122581 | Yes | 0.122581 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 22 | 2.3 | 0.148387 | No | 0.000000 |
| Randy Moss | 6 | 1.1 | 0.070968 | Yes | 0.070968 |
| Delanie Walker | 13 | 1.1 | 0.070968 | No | 0.000000 |
| Anthony Dixon | 13 | 0.8 | 0.051613 | No | 0.000000 |
| Kendall Hunter | 9 | 1.1 | 0.070968 | Yes | 0.070968 |
| Total | 89 | 15.5 | 1.000000 | 0.509677 |
So, a Baltimore touchdown would have a 61.64% chance of having under 9.5 Scrabble points, and SF 59.97%.
3. A weighted average would be 44.54% * 61.64% + 55.46% * 59.97% = 60.71%.
That would make the fair line on the under -155 (note: corrected). Seems a good bet at -115, assuming it is still there.
Can anyone find a flaw in my logic? By the way, I bet this last year, using the same kind of math, and lost.
p.s. Go Ravens!
Quote: Wizard
That would make the fair line on the under -141. Seems a good bet at -115, assuming it is still there.
Can anyone find a flaw in my logic? By the way, I bet this last year, using the same kind of math, and lost.
p.s. Go Ravens!
I have absolutely no idea if/how it would skew the fair line, but I noticed that you don't seem to factor in a defensive touchdown in any way whatsoever. It could be time-consuming, but you could probably just do the probability of scoring first (based on each starter) for a certain team's defense (as a whole) then figure out the probability of the name scoring +/-9.5 points overall and then include it in the above charts for each team that way.
Quote: Mission146I have absolutely no idea if/how it would skew the fair line, but I noticed that you don't seem to factor in a defensive touchdown in any way whatsoever. It could be time-consuming, but you could probably just do the probability of scoring first (based on each starter) for a certain team's defense (as a whole) then figure out the probability of the name scoring +/-9.5 points overall and then include it in the above charts for each team that way.
Actually, just glancing over the depth charts, it seems that it would help the Under, somewhat.
Quote: Mission146I have absolutely no idea if/how it would skew the fair line, but I noticed that you don't seem to factor in a defensive touchdown in any way whatsoever.
I was trying to keep it simple and just look at the top scorers.
By the way, I see my name has 24 Scrabble points. Take that Kaepernick.
I read your scrabble prop analysis. Rather impressive.
I can't help imagine that for every Wizard that analytically studies the bet,
there are approximately 100 drunken tourists stumble to the betting window and say
"Gimme that damn scrabble thingy OVER for $100 bucks!"
Quote: Mission146By the way, are there any specifics on how the bet resolves if there are no touchdowns, or is it just a Push?
I assume it would be a push, since there was never a first touchdown.
More importantly, Bovada currently has SF money line at -165. This is a great price. Around Vegas it is -175 or -180. I put it fair at -190.
Quote: WizardI just got under 9.5 punts at -120 at 5 Dimes, so maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to bet -140 at the Red Rock.
I wouldn't facepalm over betting it at -140 at the Red Rock. Without even glancing at the math on it, I looked at that Line in the OP and immediately recognized it as being absurdly good for the under. How could you possibly have known you'd find a better line than that?
Quote: Mission146How could you possibly have known you'd find a better line than that?
It happens all the time with props that you bet something and see a better line somewhere else later. If you bide your time and shop around too much you risk missing good opportunities.
I've accidentally swallowed some Scrabble tiles. My next s**t could spell disaster.
Quote: WizardI've accidentally swallowed some Scrabble tiles. My next s**t could spell disaster.
Funny, we just got a new puppy and he has eaten the keys off of three laptops in the last week. We were expecting to find the word "ouch".
Quote: WizardHere is my analysis of the Scrabble prop.... Can anyone find a flaw in my logic?
Kaepernick didn't play the whole season, so his impact is somewhat watered down. Perhaps the Points/game numbers should be re-run using just the games where each player participated for a minimum number of snaps (like 10).
Quote: AyecarumbaKaepernick didn't play the whole season, so his impact is somewhat watered down. Perhaps the Points/game numbers should be re-run using just the games where each player participated for a minimum number of snaps (like 10).
My source (ESPN), seems to base their points per game statistics on just games played. You can see that Kaepernick has 30 total points and 2.3 points per game, implying the figure is based on 13 games. The ratio for most other players is based on 16 games.
Quote: WizardMy source (ESPN), seems to base their points per game statistics on just games played. You can see that Kaepernick has 30 total points and 2.3 points per game, implying the figure is based on 13 games. The ratio for most other players is based on 16 games.
Yeah, the ESPN numbers project based on games played.
Quote: bbvk05Bovada's moneyline on SF just fell to -160
Wow. If I was still booking bets, I would be using SF -190 / Bal +165 (my line service odds)
Free money laying -160, taking +165.
Quote: bbvk05Bovada's moneyline on SF just fell to -160
When you actually log in the line is -165. Still, that is a good number, which I bet into. I put it fair about -195.
In the Scrabble prop news, I just bet the under at the Suncoast about an hour ago at -120. It makes me doubt my analysis, as some sharp better bet into all the other props that had good numbers off the sheet, except that one.
Quote: WizardWhen you actually log in the line is -165. Still, that is a good number, which I bet into. I put it fair about -195.
In the Scrabble prop news, I just bet the under at the Suncoast about an hour ago at -120. It makes me doubt my analysis, as some sharp better bet into all the other props that had good numbers off the sheet, except that one.
I wouldn't worry since the others probably didn't take the time to do the analysis. Was there an over/under posted anywhere for the length of the national anthem?
Quote: WizardWhen you actually log in the line is -165. Still, that is a good number, which I bet into. I put it fair about -195.
In the Scrabble prop news, I just bet the under at the Suncoast about an hour ago at -120. It makes me doubt my analysis, as some sharp better bet into all the other props that had good numbers off the sheet, except that one.
I can still book -160, and I am logged in. I already booked it @-160.
Quote: WizardTotal punts under 9.5. I got it at -140. I put it fair at -214.
Wiz,
I am having a look at your under 9.5 Punts bet. Looking at just this year's punt stats for Baltimore and San Fran on ESPN there are a total of 317 punts in their regular season games -> an average of 9.9 per game. This is obviously a very small sample but using the poisson distribution I get +112 as about fair for the under.
Could you let me know what stats you are using to get to -214? (which I believe implies a mean number of punts of 8.3)
Long time reader, first time poster. Great site and keep up the good work!
quickdraw
Pinnacle just moved the moneyline to 2.710 for 1 for the Ravens win. (The same as +171.) Not sure if that's a good bet all on it's own, but with Bovada at -165 for the 49ers win, there's an opportunity there.
Sorry if I'm hijacking - just trying to be helpful.
Quote: mwalz9Are you implying there is a guaranteed profit by betting both of these lines? Or that these are just the best you have seen?
I checked a couple hours after that post, but yeah, if I understand it right you could have bet $165 on the 49ers at Bovada, and 100 on the Ravens at Pinnacle, which would be breakeven if the 49ers win, and would net you $6 if the Ravens do.
As of 1201 AM EST Balt is +170 on the $$$ line at Pinnacle.
Quote: quickdrawWiz,
I am having a look at your under 9.5 Punts bet. Looking at just this year's punt stats for Baltimore and San Fran on ESPN there are a total of 317 punts in their regular season games -> an average of 9.9 per game. This is obviously a very small sample but using the poisson distribution I get +112 as about fair for the under.
My line is mainly based on the high total of 48. A high scoring game has fewer punts. The sum of scores+punts+turnovers is pretty consistent in the NFL. I would make Ov/Un 8 punts close to even money both ways. Then again, I got this bet as good as -125 at the Paris yesterday. I have this one pretty big. If FrG reads this, maybe he could put in a request on my behalf.
I've also have under 7.5 punts at +190 at the MGM. I put that fair at +131.
Quote: WizardMy line is mainly based on the high total of 48. A high scoring game has fewer punts. The sum of scores+punts+turnovers is pretty consistent in the NFL. I would make Ov/Un 8 punts close to even money both ways. Then again, I got this bet as good as -125 at the Paris yesterday. I have this one pretty big. If FrG reads this, maybe he could put in a request on my behalf.
I've also have under 7.5 punts at +190 at the MGM. I put that fair at +131.
Thanks Wiz. I hadn't looked at it that way. Let's hope the total goes way over! I was able to get -126 online and have access to -133 in Australia so might put some more on there too.
The best bet of the day is BAL WR Jacoby Jones.
Bet him every way you can:
over XX receiving yards
over XX catches
longest catch over XX yards
first to score
last to score
etc.
My biggest bet of the day is Jacoby Jones total receiving yards OVER 20.5 -115
Already have some at -145 and -140 , ugh.
Is this good enough to justify taking more?
However, I clocked it at OVER 2:15 at 2:17 when she finished the last note of the first "brave" so I think all bets should be graded as over.
Quote: sodawaterWow, interesting at the end of Alicia Keys's national anthem! She added a line at the end to go way OVER.
However, I clocked it at OVER 2:15 at 2:17 when she finished the last note of the first "brave" so I think all bets should be graded as over.
Also do you count the piano into (that SHE played) as part of the anthem? Also, the repeated line is interesting for the prop about "adding" content.
Quote: cclub79Also do you count the piano into (that SHE played) as part of the anthem? Also, the repeated line is interesting for the prop about "adding" content.
No, I clocked it from the first note sang to the last note sang on the traditional end of the song.
Quote: MakingBookSF defense ranks in the bottom 1/3 of the entire NFL against the opponents #3 wide receiver.
The best bet of the day is BAL WR Jacoby Jones.
Bet him every way you can:
over XX receiving yards
over XX catches
longest catch over XX yards
first to score
last to score
etc.
My biggest bet of the day is Jacoby Jones total receiving yards OVER 20.5 -115
SCORE! Jacoby Jones baby!
Power outage YES +50,000
Quote: MakingBookOK, who had the prop:
Power outage YES +50,000
Steve Tasker Emergency News reporter YES +100,000
Quote: cclub79Steve Tasker Emergency News reporter YES +100,000
Game finish Monday YES +250,000
Quote: cclub79Steve Tasker Emergency News reporter YES +100,000
+1,000,000
Quote: WizardMy props are doing quite well so far. Only three punts so far in the first half. I hope they get the lights back on. If they have to finish the game another day I think any props not already resolved with be "no action."
Despite my "prop", seriously, I think they will do everything to finish this game tonight. Only if they resume play and the lights go out again very quickly might they consider it. Did you eventually take the 2pt Conversion NO bet? That might be the only one to sweat, but only if SF gets a couple of quick scores.
Quote: cclub79Despite my "prop", seriously, I think they will do everything to finish this game tonight.
I think there is enough light to finish the game, but have never seen this situation before.
Quote:Did you eventually take the 2pt Conversion NO bet?
No. I never found a good enough line. I put it fair at -600.
At least I didn't bet the NO on a defensive/special teams TD, which I've bet many times in the past.
I've had to sweat the NO safety bet a couple times but so far so good.
Do you guys think the discussion during this outage counts towards that? They are really racking up the Harbaughs.
