Superbowl XLVII Prop Palooza
1. Which team will win the coin toss?
2. Which team will score first?
3. The team that scores first will win the game. (Yes or No)
4. Will there be a score in the first 7 minutes and 30 seconds of the first quarter? (Yes or No)
5. Baltimore total team points over or under 21.5?
6. San Francisco total team points over or under 25.5?
7. Will there be a safety scored by either team? (Yes or No)
8. Tiebreaker: How many seconds will be on the clock when the first time out is charged to either team (per NFL.com's posted re-cap)? If there is still a tie, the under will beat the over. If there is still a tie, the earliest complete entry will win. EDIT: For the tiebreaker prediction, ignore the minutes on the game clock (e.g., if the clock reads 3:21, the correct prediction is :21).
Thanks Aye for organising.
Quote: AyecarumbaMake your prediction on the following Superbowl Prop bets, and PM me your selections before noon (Las Vegas time) on February 1. I'll compile and post them here. No money, but the glory is priceless.
1. Which team will win the coin toss?
2. Which team will score first?
3. The team that scores first will win the game. (Yes or No)
4. Will there be a score in the first 7 minutes and 30 seconds of the first quarter? (Yes or No)
5. Baltimore total team points over or under 21.5?
6. San Francisco total team points over or under 25.5?
7. Will there be a safety scored by either team? (Yes or No)
8. Tiebreaker: How many seconds will be on the clock when the first time out is charged to either team (per NFL.com's posted re-cap)? If there is still a tie, the under will beat the over. If there is still a tie, the earliest complete entry will win.
For question 8, do you mean how many seconds are remaining in the quarter in which the first time out is called, or how many seconds are remaining on the 40 second play clock?
Quote: SOOPOOFor question 8, do you mean how many seconds are remaining in the quarter in which the first time out is called, or how many seconds are remaining on the 40 second play clock?
For #8, your prediction should be the number of seconds on the game clock, not the play clock. For example, if the time out is charged with 8:30 remaining to play in the first quarter, with the play clock down to 2 seconds, the correct prediction is 30. Note that the prediction is for the number of seconds showing on the clock, the minutes remaining is irrelevant.
Oh. Then I figure you'll ignore the minutes in my entry...Quote: AyecarumbaNote that the prediction is for the number of seconds showing on the clock, the minutes remaining is irrelevant.
Quote: AyecarumbaMake your prediction on the following Superbowl Prop bets, and PM me your selections before noon (Las Vegas time) on February 1. I'll compile and post them here. No money, but the glory is priceless.
1. Which team will win the coin toss?
2. Which team will score first?
3. The team that scores first will win the game. (Yes or No)
4. Will there be a score in the first 7 minutes and 30 seconds of the first quarter? (Yes or No)
5. Baltimore total team points over or under 21.5?
6. San Francisco total team points over or under 25.5?
7. Will there be a safety scored by either team? (Yes or No)
8. Tiebreaker: How many seconds will be on the clock when the first time out is charged to either team (per NFL.com's posted re-cap)? If there is still a tie, the under will beat the over. If there is still a tie, the earliest complete entry will win.
Moderator's note: The responses entered here have been removed, but have been submitted via a PM.
Quote: aceofspadesModerator's note: The responses entered here have been removed, but have been submitted via a PM.
Thanks DJ. I got them.
I have only the sheets from the Red Rock and Suncoast. The one that really jumps off the page is first score to be a touchdown. Red Rock has it at -155 and the Suncoast at -130. Here is a juicy little tip from me to you. I show this one fair at -191. Granted, these lines may have moved, but this is a prop I bet all the time, and I'm sure I will this year too.
Two I'd like to bring up for discussion are:
1. Team to kickoff first.
2. Team to make the first 1st down.
Does anyone know both teams propensity to defer to kickoff if they win the flip? This is something that isn't in my data.
The Suncoast has first team to kickoff as:
Ravens -150
49ers +120
However, they have team to make first 1st down as:
Ravens -115
49ers -115
One or the other must be wrong. The team to receive first is probably going to make the first first down.
Finally, one that smells good, but I haven't analyzed is 49ers under 27.5 points. The Suncoast has it at -110.
A simple trick to estimate the number of points scored by each team is to look at the spread and total. In this case it is -3.5 (SF) and 48. Doing a little algebra this implies the Ravens will score 22.25 points, and the 49ers 25.75. That makes under 27.5 for SF look pretty good. This captures a common single-team total of 27 (three touchdowns and two field goals). It unfortunately doesn't capture 28 (four touchdowns).
Quote: WizardI'm finally getting around to looking at the props for Super Bowl 47. By the way, it is easy for me to remember the number of the Super Bowl, because it always equals my age, at least until there is an NFL strike and they cancel one.
I have only the sheets from the Red Rock and Suncoast. The one that really jumps off the page is first score to be a touchdown. Red Rock has it at -155 and the Suncoast at -130. Here is a juicy little tip from me to you. I show this one fair at -191. Granted, these lines may have moved, but this is a prop I bet all the time, and I'm sure I will this year too.
Two I'd like to bring up for discussion are:
1. Team to kickoff first.
2. Team to make the first 1st down.
Does anyone know both teams propensity to defer to kickoff if they win the flip? This is something that isn't in my data.
The Suncoast has first team to kickoff as:
Ravens -150
49ers +120
However, they have team to make first 1st down as:
Ravens -115
49ers -115
One or the other must be wrong. The team to receive first is probably going to make the first first down.
Finally, one that smells good, but I haven't analyzed is 49ers under 27.5 points. The Suncoast has it at -110.
A simple trick to estimate the number of points scored by each team is to look at the spread and total. In this case it is -3.5 (SF) and 48. Doing a little algebra this implies the Ravens will score 22.25 points, and the 49ers 25.75. That makes under 27.5 for SF look pretty good. This captures a common single-team total of 27 (three touchdowns and two field goals). It unfortunately doesn't capture 28 (four touchdowns).
I thought exactly the same thing. Both have a propensity to defer, but my memory sells me that the 49ers are more dedicated to deferring. I think there is some serious value to Baltimore first to get a first down, first to cross the 50 yard line.
Quote: Wizard...Two I'd like to bring up for discussion are:
1. Team to kickoff first.
2. Team to make the first 1st down.
Does anyone know both teams propensity to defer to kickoff if they win the flip? This is something that isn't in my data.
I assume the propensity to defer would not be a cut and dried number. I think it would depend on the venue (home vs. away, artificial turf vs. grass), the weather at outdoor stadiums (rain/snow/slop now, or later), and the relative health of your Offense or Defense (injuries to key players on one or the other, would be a big encouragement to get the healthy squad on the field first).
Since the game is indoors, at a "neutral" site, I am gong to venture that both teams would defer if they win the toss. Both teams have confidence in their defenses, and starting with the ball in the second half is an advantage.
As for the over/unders, is there a correlation between a team's scores during the season and/or playoffs, and the Superbowl? It seems that total scores in general were way up this season, which leads me to believe that the overs on both team totals would be a good bet.
Here is my bump joke (re-interpreted from guy-sports.com):
During the Super Bowl, there was another football game between the animals left out of the "Puppy Bowl". Of course the team captains picked their friends, resulting in a team of big creatures vs. a team of small creatures. As many expected, the big creatures were leading the small creatures at half-time, so in the locker room, the coach of the small creatures made a passionate speech to rally his troops.
At the start of the second half the big animals had the ball. On their first play, in a huge cloud of dust, the elephant got stopped for no gain. On their second play, the rhino was stopped for no gain. On third down, the hippo got hit in the backfield for a 5 yard loss. The large creatures immediately called a time out to regroup.
The small creatures rushed to their sideline and huddled around their coach as he asked excitedly, "Who stopped the elephant?"
"I did," said the centipede.
"Who stopped the rhino?"
"Uh, that was me too," said the centipede.
"And how about the hippo? Who hit him for a 5 yard loss?"
"Well, that was me as well," said the centipede.
"So where were you during the first half?" demanded the coach.
"Well," said the centipede, "I was having my ankles taped."
Quote: AyecarumbaMake your prediction on the following Superbowl Prop bets, and PM me your selections before noon (Las Vegas time) on February 1. I'll compile and post them here. No money, but the glory is priceless.
1. Which team will win the coin toss?
2. Which team will score first?
3. The team that scores first will win the game. (Yes or No)
4. Will there be a score in the first 7 minutes and 30 seconds of the first quarter? (Yes or No)
5. Baltimore total team points over or under 21.5?
6. San Francisco total team points over or under 25.5?
7. Will there be a safety scored by either team? (Yes or No)
8. Tiebreaker: How many seconds will be on the clock when the first time out is charged to either team (per NFL.com's posted re-cap)? If there is still a tie, the under will beat the over. If there is still a tie, the earliest complete entry will win. EDIT: For the tiebreaker prediction, ignore the minutes on the game clock (e.g., if the clock reads 3:21, the correct prediction is :21).
Here are your predictions in order from earliest to latest receipt. Please let me know if there are any errors. Good luck to all!:
| Player | 1. Coin Toss | 2. Score First | 3. Score First Winner | 4. Early Score | 5. Balt O/U 21.5 | 6. SF O/U 25.5 | 7. Safety | 8. Tiebreaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croupier | B | B | N | Y | U | U | N | 59 |
| SOOPOO | B | SF | Y | Y | U | O | N | 52 |
| DJTeddyBear | SF | B | N | Y | U | O | N | 37 |
| slyther | SF | B | N | Y | U | U | N | 42 |
| rainman | B | B | Y | N | U | U | N | 33 |
| AceOfSpade's | B | SF | N | Y | O | U | Y | 7 |
| TheNightfly | SF | SF | Y | Y | U | O | N | 17 |
| Paradigm | SF | SF | Y | Y | O | O | N | 20 |
| Beardgoat | SF | SF | Y | Y | U | O | N | 36 |
| mwalz9 | B | B | N | N | U | U | N | 29 |
| kmumf | B | B | N | Y | O | O | N | 17 |
| Din | B | B | N | Y | U | O | N | 23 |
| thecesspit | SF | B | N | Y | U | O | Y | 3 |
| s2dbaker | B | B | N | N | U | O | N | 27 |
| 98Clubs | B | SF | N | Y | O | O | N | 19 |
| Wizard | B | SF | Y | Y | U | O | N | 33 |
| RaleighCraps | SF | SF | Y | Y | O | O | N | 24 |
Quote: thecesspitI predict Baltimore to score early, but SF to win as the Ravens defence wears down.
There is no 'wearing down' in a modern super bowl. There are so many freaking commercial timeouts, there will be breaks up the wazoo for review of every turnover and touchdown, not even counting the coaches challenges. And the halftime break is probably triple what a normal halftime break is. And NONE of the players played the week before.
Quote: AyecarumbaWhat I found interesting was the tiebreaker predictions. Among the 17 predictions, the mean is 28.1 with only two repeats at :17 and :33. I thought lower numbers would prevail since the most common scenario is to call time before kicking a half ending field goal. However, with Coach's challenges, I guess it is wide open.
There are no coaches challenges in the final two minutes of a half. All those are known as 'booth reviews'.
Quote: SOOPOOThere is no 'wearing down' in a modern super bowl. There are so many freaking commercial timeouts, there will be breaks up the wazoo for review of every turnover and touchdown, not even counting the coaches challenges. And the halftime break is probably triple what a normal halftime break is. And NONE of the players played the week before.
And adrenalin overcomes any fatigue. I mean this is the defining moment for most players.
Quote: SOOPOOThere are no coaches challenges in the final two minutes of a half. All those are known as 'booth reviews'.
I think he means with Coaches' Challenges, the first "charged" time out could be at any point in the game, so his "common scenario" of calling time before kicking a half ending field goal (*which I disagree with anyway, because that's rarely the first time out) means even less.
*I can't think of a recent game where the FIRST time out of a half (for either team) was with time winding down to set up a FG.
| Coin Toss (SF/B) | First Score (SF/B) | Score First Winner (Y/N) | Early Score (Y/N) | Baltimore (O/U) | San Francisco (O/U) | Safety (Y/N) | Timeout Avg (s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.2% | 47.1% | 41.2% | 82.4% | 29.4% | 70.6% | 11.8% | 28.1 |
| 58.8% | 52.9% | 58.8% | 17.6% | 70.6% | 29.4% | 88.2% |
Not many people liking Baltimore's chances. I think the safety pick is this game's version of the Hail Mary.
"Just thought I'd post this here. I don't have any money on any of these sites, so I can't take advantage, but it looks like you could bet the moneyline on Bovada for the 49ers at -160 and the moneyline at Pinnacle for +162, so if anyone wants to take advantage the opportunities there. Don't know if it'll last.
If I understand sports betting, that means you could bet 160 for the 49ers at Bovada and 100 at Pinnacle for the Ravens and you'd break even if the 49ers win, and win 2 dollars if the Ravens do."
EDIT - Didn't realize this was a contest thread, sorry.
| Player | 1. Coin Toss | 2. Score First | 3. Score First Winner | 4. Early Score | 5. Balt O/U 21.5 | 6. SF O/U 25.5 | 7. Safety | 8. Tiebreaker | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTUAL | B | B | Y | Y | O | O | Y | 19 | |
| Croupier | B | B | N | Y | U | U | N | 59 | 3 |
| SOOPOO | B | SF | Y | Y | U | O | N | 52 | 4 |
| DJTeddyBear | SF | B | N | Y | U | O | N | 37 | 3 |
| slyther | SF | B | N | Y | U | U | N | 42 | 2 |
| rainman | B | B | Y | N | U | U | N | 33 | 3 |
| AceOfSpade's | B | SF | N | Y | O | U | Y | 7 | 4 |
| TheNightfly | SF | SF | Y | Y | U | O | N | 17 | 3 |
| Paradigm | SF | SF | Y | Y | O | O | N | 20 | 4 |
| Beardgoat | SF | SF | Y | Y | U | O | N | 36 | 3 |
| mwalz9 | B | B | N | N | U | U | N | 29 | 2 |
| kmumf | B | B | N | Y | O | O | N | 17 | 5 |
| Din | B | B | N | Y | U | O | N | 23 | 4 |
| thecesspit | SF | B | N | Y | U | O | Y | 3 | 4 |
| s2dbaker | B | B | N | N | U | O | N | 27 | 3 |
| 98Clubs | B | SF | N | Y | O | O | N | 19 | 3 |
| Wizard | B | SF | Y | Y | U | O | N | 33 | 3 |
| RaleighCraps | SF | SF | Y | Y | O | O | N | 24 | 3 |
