Futures Bet on Super Bowl
January 21st, 2013 at 1:51:42 PM
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In Feb. of 2012 while at Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas, I made a small $10 wager on San Francisco to win the Super Bowl at 4.5/1. So if they win my $10 wager will pay $55. I plan on keeping the wager and riding it out, however, this got me to thinking, hypothetically, what would be my best option now if I wanted to hedge that and guarantee a win?
Sell it? If so for how much?
Make a wager on Baltimore moneyline? ATS? Future bet?
Just curious. Like I said, I made that bet almost a year ago and since it's only $10, I'm riding it out, but just curious that smart play here if I did want to hedge.
Sell it? If so for how much?
Make a wager on Baltimore moneyline? ATS? Future bet?
Just curious. Like I said, I made that bet almost a year ago and since it's only $10, I'm riding it out, but just curious that smart play here if I did want to hedge.
January 21st, 2013 at 2:32:11 PM
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Bet $20 on Baltimore moneyline. You will get about $51 payout if Baltimore wins and a $55 payout if SF wins.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
January 21st, 2013 at 3:26:33 PM
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Quote: DRichBet $20 on Baltimore moneyline. You will get about $51 payout if Baltimore wins and a $55 payout if SF wins.
Personally, I think that I would be more aggressive. I'd bet $40 on the Baltimore money line.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 21st, 2013 at 3:30:18 PM
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Quote: steeldcoPersonally, I think that I would be more aggressive. I'd bet $40 on the Baltimore money line.
for a profit of $5 if SF wins?
January 21st, 2013 at 3:31:23 PM
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Quote: sodawaterfor a profit of $5 if SF wins?
Yes, since I believe that Baltimore has an excellent chance of winning. Profit either way but one awfully nice return if Baltimore wins.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 21st, 2013 at 3:32:34 PM
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Quote: steeldcoPersonally, I think that I would be more aggressive. I'd bet $40 on the Baltimore money line.
When I was booking bets, I loved it when bettors hedged.
You have a -180 favorite at a price of +450. You have the best of it against the book, why would you give up your edge?
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
January 21st, 2013 at 3:36:28 PM
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hedging is ok to lock in a profit, but be aware it comes at a cost. If you have a -180 favorite at +450, that presents a big enough spread to make a profitable hedging bet, but the hedging bet will be negative expectation due to the juice.
So ultimately the most profitable thing to do would be to let the bet ride, but it's certainly valid to hedge if you really need the money, the same way it's perfectly valid to have insurance in non-gambling areas of life -- which also comes at a cost.
So ultimately the most profitable thing to do would be to let the bet ride, but it's certainly valid to hedge if you really need the money, the same way it's perfectly valid to have insurance in non-gambling areas of life -- which also comes at a cost.
January 21st, 2013 at 3:39:34 PM
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Quote: MakingBookWhen I was booking bets, I loved it when bettors hedged.
You have a -180 favorite at a price of +450. You have the best of it against the book, why would you give up your edge?
Makin'book, I guess that I'm biased in that I believe that Baltimore is a much better value since I believe that they will probably win. If I do nothing, and I am right in Baltimore's abilities than I lose $10 by doing nothing. Under my scenario I will make at least $5 and much more if Baltimore wins $74
If I believed that SF would win then I would do nothing.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 21st, 2013 at 3:55:47 PM
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Quote: steeldcoMakin'book, I guess that I'm biased in that I believe that Baltimore is a much better value since I believe that they will probably win. If I do nothing, and I am right in Baltimore's abilities than I lose $10 by doing nothing. Under my scenario I will make at least $5 and much more if Baltimore wins $74
If I believed that SF would win then I would do nothing.
If you think SF is dead money (or close to it), then you probably should bet BAL. Makes sense.
I don't handicap games though. My W/L record in the WoV Picks Game was horrific.
"I am a man devoured by the passion for gambling." --Dostoevsky, 1871
January 21st, 2013 at 3:59:08 PM
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Quote: MakingBookIf you think SF is dead money (or close to it), then you probably should bet BAL. Makes sense.
I don't handicap games though. My W/L record in the WoV Picks Game was horrific.
Makingbook, thanks. It all depends on who, at this point in time, you believe will win. He made his bet many months ago. He may now believe that Baltimore is actually the better team, as I do. If he doesn't than he should do nothing.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
January 21st, 2013 at 4:25:44 PM
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How much do you think you would get for it if you sold it? I remember a story from the 49ers' first Super Bowl win when somebody with a futures bet on the 49ers worth $400,000 was offered a $100,000 buyout by the book that took the bet. (In other words, the bet was now, in effect, $100,000 on the 49ers at +300.)
If you want to guarantee money, what you would do depends on how much you wanted to win as a minimum. $22 on the Ravens ATS gets you a profit of $23 if the 49ers cover, $10 if the Ravens win, and $65 if the 49ers win but don't cover. Changing the bet to $33 makes those numbers $12, $20, and $75.
If you want to guarantee money, what you would do depends on how much you wanted to win as a minimum. $22 on the Ravens ATS gets you a profit of $23 if the 49ers cover, $10 if the Ravens win, and $65 if the 49ers win but don't cover. Changing the bet to $33 makes those numbers $12, $20, and $75.
January 21st, 2013 at 4:30:29 PM
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You make a futures bet, get the favorite no less, and now you want to dutch your bet ? WTF !
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 21st, 2013 at 5:49:49 PM
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I don't want to get rid of my bet. I'm riding it out. Was just curious what my best option was and thru a question out for discussion on a forum. Trust me, Im letting it ride.
January 21st, 2013 at 6:27:17 PM
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I think I'd ride it out, too. The better question might be what is your pick for next year's Super Bowl? :)
