NFL Playoff Prediction Pool
Although, I am willing to accept offers to buyout my $1.17 EV.
Quote: thecesspit
Using this as a wisdom of the crowds strength indicator, this weekend :
Houston Beats Cincinatti
Green Bay Beats Minnesota
Baltimore beats Indianapolis
Seattle beats Washington
And
Denver wins the Superbowl over Green Bay.
I may or may not have placed these as bets this weekend :)
Well, my four team parlay paid off this weekend, so my contribution to this pool is paid for. Thanks all. It was a free bet from bodog anyways, so life was doubly good.
I've not looked at the lists of combinations for the winner. Does seem odd if anyone who picked the 1-4 spots correctly would be out already, but I can see that happening if you've now got your top rated teams playing each other next weekend.
Next weekend, the wisdom of the crowds says :
Denver Over Baltimore
Seattle over Atlanta
New England Over Houston
Green Bay Over San Francisco
I await the BoDog MoneyLines...
Quote: deedubbsI am suddenly a HOU fan!
Although, I am willing to accept offers to buyout my $1.17 EV.
I'd take you up on it, but your position relies on ATL beating SEA.
A hedge still wouldn't be bad, though. Give me your positions at no charge and you will win $10.00 if either of our positions win.
Go Ravens
Quote: vendman1I'm impressed you guys all took the time to figure out the options. I took one look at the chart...my eyes glazed over.. and I decided to wait till after next week's action when hopefully some clarity will emerge. Good Luck to All
Go Ravens
Actually, your two winning scenarios are quite simple.
1) You need the Pats, Packers, Broncos, and Falcons to all win next week. (And three of these teams are favored.)
2) And then the following week you need the Broncos to defeat the Pats and the Falcons to defeat the Packers. (And with these match-ups, both the Broncos and Falcons will be favored.)
That's it. And if that happens, the Super Bowl game becomes irrelevant... you win the pool right then and there. It would make no difference whether the Broncos defeat the Falcons in the Super Bowl or vice versa.
This is all very possible.
Quote: Mission146I don't believe that the Broncos would be favored to beat the Patriots, even being as objective as possible.
Of course the margin of victory, injuries, etc. of this upcoming weekend's games will make a difference in the line (assuming both win), but I'd be willing to put a wager that says that Denver is favored versus the Pats. And yes, I mean a bona fide wager as contrasted with ... well you all get the point.
To be fair, let's both make it contigent on Manning and Brady getting through this week healthy.
Quote: MidwestAPOf course the margin of victory, injuries, etc. of this upcoming weekend's games will make a difference in the line (assuming both win), but I'd be willing to put a wager that says that Denver is favored versus the Pats. And yes, I mean a bona fide wager as contrasted with ... well you all get the point.
To be fair, let's both make it contigent on Manning and Brady getting through this week healthy.
I will accept a more specific wager.
I will wager $20.00 with you, at Even-Money, that pursuant to the Pinnacle Line as of the night before the game at 23:59 EST, provided Brady and Manning are both healthy and that the Patriots and Broncos (obviously) both win next week, that the Patriots will be giving up points pursuant to the spread, or that the game will be a PK. In the event that either Brady or Manning are not healthy, or in the event that either the Pats or Broncos lose, there is no bet.
If you (MidwestAP) agree to the following proposal by responding with a definitive, "Yes," I will accept your wager. If you believe that the wager should be further amended, or disagree with any of my terms, please state such.
ADDENDUM: I was also kidding about the, "Definitive," yes. You're the one to initially propose the wager, after all.
Quote: Mission146I will accept a more specific wager.
I will wager $20.00 with you, at Even-Money, that pursuant to the Pinnacle Line as of the night before the game at 23:59 EST, provided Brady and Manning are both healthy and that the Patriots and Broncos (obviously) both win next week, that the Patriots will be giving up points pursuant to the spread, or that the game will be a PK. In the event that either Brady or Manning are not healthy, or in the event that either the Pats or Broncos lose, there is no bet.
If you (MidwestAP) agree to the following proposal by responding with a definitive, "Yes," I will accept your wager. If you believe that the wager should be further amended, or disagree with any of my terms, please state such.
Mission, if you want more action I will accept the other side of this wager as you have outlined it for $20, too.
Quote: Mission146Pinnacle has the Broncos as more likely than the Patriots to win the Super Bowl, atm, for what that's worth. I just think that the Broncos will struggle to beat Baltimore while NE beats Houston handily. I also think that Denver may sustain one or two injuries to players other than Manning during that game, and that all of these factors may swing it to the Patriots side come the following week.
ADDENDUM: I was also kidding about the, "Definitive," yes. You're the one to initially propose the wager, after all.
Yes, I accept your terms, $20.
Quote: Mission146I will accept a more specific wager.
I will wager $20.00 with you, at Even-Money, that pursuant to the Pinnacle Line as of the night before the game at 23:59 EST, provided Brady and Manning are both healthy and that the Patriots and Broncos (obviously) both win next week, that the Patriots will be giving up points pursuant to the spread, or that the game will be a PK. In the event that either Brady or Manning are not healthy, or in the event that either the Pats or Broncos lose, there is no bet.
If you (MidwestAP) agree to the following proposal by responding with a definitive, "Yes," I will accept your wager. If you believe that the wager should be further amended, or disagree with any of my terms, please state such.
And to be clear, healthy means Manning and Brady are either not on the injury report or are listed as 'Probable' on the injury report the night before the game. If either or both are listed as Questionable, Doubtful, or Out, the bet is void.
Quote: BeardgoatGutsy move by mission. I myself do not see new England being a road favorite though
Point of information DUMB is not spelled G_U_T_S_Y !
Quote: vendman1No wager here; but if NE plays at Den, assuming no key injuries I think the line would be Den -2.5 or -3. Since home teams generally get 3 points for being at home. That means it's a pick-em in the eyes of the sportsbooks. Which to mean seems about right. But it's not going to happen, the mighty Ravens will upset the Broncos at home this Sat afternoon. Caw-caw!! Giant Ravens homer here....just trying to talk myself into it. :) Before someone asks no I don't want to put money where my mouth is.
I think the Vegas lines may differ from the online ones, as the local market Denver backers generate a lump of action that may need to be offset. The goal of the books is not to pick the winner, but to balance the action and collect the vig.
Injuries have played key roles in the Playoffs so far. Washington, and Minnesota both suffered. I think Denver is vulnerable as well, and given the looser officiating in the Playoffs, do not think they will make it past the Conference championship.
Mission, can I get in on this? Easy money!
Quote: Mission146I'd take you up on it, but your position relies on ATL beating SEA.
A hedge still wouldn't be bad, though. Give me your positions at no charge and you will win $10.00 if either of our positions win.
Interesting, but I think I'll decline because I don't like SEA or HOU will end up in the Superbowl. Also, I am not really worried about SEA beating ATL, but HOU at NE doesn't concern me quite a bit.
Quote: sodawaterMission, if you want more action I will accept the other side of this wager as you have outlined it for $20, too.
I would take you up on that, except $20 pretty much reflects my confidence level in that bet at even money. I respectfully decline, but we'll probably find some stuff to bet on in the future.
Quote: MidwestAPAnd to be clear, healthy means Manning and Brady are either not on the injury report or are listed as 'Probable' on the injury report the night before the game. If either or both are listed as Questionable, Doubtful, or Out, the bet is void.
Agreed.
Quote: Mission146I would take you up on that, except $20 pretty much reflects my confidence level in that bet at even money. I respectfully decline, but we'll probably find some stuff to bet on in the future.
Too late FINN. The chump has come to his senses. SIGH
Quote: FinsRuleWait, so Mission is betting that the Patriots will be road favorites against the Broncos next week?
Mission, can I get in on this? Easy money!
Nope!
I only accept one bet per Proposition, as I told SodaWater, Im sure there will be something for us to bet on sooner or later.
This also appears to be a bad bet on my part, pursuant to Forum consensus, but I typed it, so I'll stick with it.
I hate being a NE homer!
Quote: BuzzardToo late FINN. The chump has come to his senses. SIGH
I make more good bets than bad bets, so it will all balance out in the end.
When the Patriots are involved, though, I occasionally get a little stupid...lol
Good thing it was only for $20 :)
Quote: sodawaterMission your only hope really is NE or Denver loses or one of the QBs gets injured. If the bet goes on you have basically no chance of winning. It's a bit like getting freerolled in PLO.
Good thing it was only for $20 :)
I think a lot can happen to Denver that doesn't involve the QB, and could swing the pendulum toward NE as a road favorite. Key RB or WR injuries could do it. It is a team game after all, and Peyton has to play it that way more than most. Time to take out your Peyton Manning Voodoo doll Mission....
Quote: AyecarumbaI think a lot can happen to Denver that doesn't involve the QB, and could swing the pendulum toward NE as a road favorite. Key RB or WR injuries could do it. It is a team game after all, and Peyton has to play it that way more than most. Time to take out your Peyton Manning Voodoo doll Mission....
denver's best player aside from PM is probably demaryius thomas -- or maybe von miller. even if one of those guys got hurt i cannot see NE being a road favorite.
I suppose it's technically possible, though... say denver sneaks out a 1 pt win on a missed FG or something whereas NE blows out houston by 35.
Quote: BuzzardNot to worry NE won't be playing Denver anyway !
Where was your entry into the pool, Buzz? I was surprised you didn't jump in.
I made a stupid statement given that Denver would be at home in that game. I got called on my statement. I could either amend my statement or back it up after I got called out, and I did get called out. Gentleman that he is, MidWestAP was kind enough to let me out of this one with less than a 50% chance (Denver & New England have to win, both QB's have to be healthy, NE could always, in some long-shot scenario, carry the line) of losing $20.
Anyway, if I'm going to play the homer and fire off my keyboard, (read: mouth) then I need to back those statements up with a little something or I lack a pair of testicles between my legs...and I do not lack a pair of testicles.
Quote: Mission146Okay...okay...you guys got me.
I made a stupid statement given that Denver would be at home in that game. I got called on my statement. I could either amend my statement or back it up after I got called out, and I did get called out. Gentleman that he is, MidWestAP was kind enough to let me out of this one with less than a 50% chance (Denver & New England have to win, both QB's have to be healthy, NE could always, in some long-shot scenario, carry the line) of losing $20.
Anyway, if I'm going to play the homer and fire off my keyboard, (read: mouth) then I need to back those statements up with a little something or I lack a pair of testicles between my legs...and I do not lack a pair of testicles.
Lol, Mission, I feel this bet is pretty unfair towards you. If you wish, we can either cancel the bet or decrease the amount, testicles intact.
Quote: MidwestAP
Lol, Mission, I feel this bet is pretty unfair towards you. If you wish, we can either cancel the bet or decrease the amount, testicles intact.
I appreciate the offer and respectfully decline. There are lessons that we learn in life, and many times we must learn those lessons multiple times. One of the most common lessons I have learned (and forgotten) in my life is not to fire off my mouth given the possibility that I will have to back it up. For me to reduce the amount of this bet, or to have not taken the bet, is morally the same (to me) as directly lying to you which I would not do (outside of the context of a game such as Golden Balls) because I consider you a friend.
We are on.
Besides, $20 is paltry, making a bad bet is the embarassing part and nothing will take that away, unless NE is favored or the game is a PK. Even if one/both teams do not make it, it will always be said that I would have lost the bet.
Quote: MidwestAPFair enough. Since one of my pet peeves is someone who I bet against wishing me good luck when they really mean the exact opposite, I won't do it. But I will use this space to thank you for the effort you spend on this site and for running an outstanding football pool this year.
Indeed! I wish you terrible luck (in this bet only) and I wish myself the outstanding luck that it would take for me to win this bet. I will Edit all posts, except for the ones in which the bet was offered and accepted...there will be no record of me admitting I was wrong...and I will declare myself a genius whose prognostication abilties are unrivalled.
I'm kidding, of course.
You're welcome, MidWestAP, and I'm glad you enjoyed the WoV Picks Game/Bet, I hope that you will participate in it next year! I'd also like to thank you for reminding me that I must announce the results of that Voting thread for the game, it may not be tonight, but I will most definitely do it tomorrow if I don't tonight.
Quote: Mission146Okay...okay...you guys got me.
I made a stupid statement given that Denver would be at home in that game. I got called on my statement. I could either amend my statement or back it up after I got called out, and I did get called out. Gentleman that he is, MidWestAP was kind enough to let me out of this one with less than a 50% chance (Denver & New England have to win, both QB's have to be healthy, NE could always, in some long-shot scenario, carry the line) of losing $20.
Anyway, if I'm going to play the homer and fire off my keyboard, (read: mouth) then I need to back those statements up with a little something or I lack a pair of testicles between my legs...and I do not lack a pair of testicles.
Add a rider. The loser of the bet is permitted to accept the point spread and put a $20 bet on the outcome of the game as well, which the winning party is obligated to take.
Quote: RaleighCraps
Add a rider. The loser of the bet is permitted to accept the point spread and put a $20 bet on the outcome of the game as well, which the winning party is obligated to take.
I will not add a mandatory rider, though I appreciate the suggestion. The terms of the bet will be as originally stated.
$1 wins $6.00
Quote: EdCollins
Hou GB. Bal Sea Bal GB. Bal ck1313
Hou GB. Bal Sea Bal GB. GB. ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Atl Bal GB. GB. ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Atl Bal GB. Bal ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Atl NE. Atl NE. ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Atl NE. GB. GB. ck1313
Hou GB. Bal Sea Hou GB. GB. ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Sea Bal GB. GB. ck1313
Hou GB. Bal Atl Bal GB. Bal ck1313
Hou GB. Bal Atl Bal GB. GB. ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Sea Bal GB. Bal ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Sea NE. GB. GB. ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Atl NE. GB. NE. ck1313
NE. GB. Bal Sea NE. GB. NE. ck1313
NE. SF. Bal Atl NE. Atl NE. EdCollins
NE. GB. Bal Atl Bal Atl Atl EdCollins
NE. GB. Bal Atl NE. Atl Atl EdCollins
NE. SF. Bal Sea Bal SF. Bal marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Sea Hou SF. SF. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Sea Bal SF. SF. marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Atl Bal SF. Bal marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Atl Bal SF. SF. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Atl NE. SF. NE. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Sea NE. SF. SF. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Atl NE. SF. SF. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Atl Bal SF. Bal marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Atl Bal SF. SF. marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Sea Bal SF. SF. marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Atl Hou SF. SF. marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Sea Bal SF. Bal marksam40 **
Hou GB. Bal Sea Hou Sea Sea miplet
Hou GB. Bal Sea Bal Sea Bal miplet
Hou SF. Bal Atl Bal Atl Bal miplet
NE. SF. Bal Sea Bal Sea Sea miplet
Hou SF. Bal Sea Bal Sea Sea miplet
Hou SF. Bal Sea Bal Sea Bal miplet
NE. SF. Bal Sea Bal Sea Bal miplet
Hou GB. Bal Sea Bal Sea Sea miplet
Hou SF. Bal Sea Hou Sea Hou miplet
Hou SF. Bal Sea Hou Sea Sea miplet
Hou GB. Bal Atl Bal Atl Bal miplet
NE. SF. Bal Atl Bal Atl Atl miplet
NE. GB. Bal Sea Bal Sea Sea miplet *
NE. GB. Bal Atl Bal Atl Bal miplet *
Hou GB. Den Sea Hou Sea Sea miplet *
NE. GB. Bal Sea Bal Sea Bal miplet *
NE. SF. Bal Atl Bal Atl Bal miplet **
NE. SF. Bal Sea NE. SF. NE. Mission146
Hou GB. Bal Sea Hou Sea Hou Mission146
NE. SF. Bal Sea NE. Sea NE. Mission146
NE. SF. Bal Sea NE. Sea Sea Mission146
NE. GB. Bal Sea NE. Sea NE. Mission146 *
NE. GB. Bal Sea NE. Sea Sea Mission146 *
Hou GB. Bal Sea Hou GB. Hou Mission146 *
Hou GB. Bal Atl Hou Atl Hou steeldco
Hou GB. Bal Atl Hou Atl Atl steeldco
Hou GB. Bal Atl Hou GB. GB. steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Atl Hou Atl Hou steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Atl Hou SF. Hou steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Sea Hou SF. Hou steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Atl Bal Atl Atl steeldco
NE. SF. Bal Atl NE. Atl Atl steeldco
Hou GB. Bal Atl Bal Atl Atl steeldco
Hou GB. Bal Atl Hou GB. Hou steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Atl Hou Atl Atl steeldco
I think I got them all, let me know if I deleted a BAL by mistake.
Quote: Mission146Indeed! I wish you terrible luck (in this bet only) and I wish myself the outstanding luck that it would take for me to win this bet. I will Edit all posts, except for the ones in which the bet was offered and accepted...there will be no record of me admitting I was wrong...and I will declare myself a genius whose prognostication abilties are unrivalled.
Note: I.O.U.
Recipient: Joe Flacco, et al.
Amount: $10
Payable upon request and arrangement to the good faith and credit of Mission146.
The above is a joke, of course.
Quote: EdCollins
NE. SF. Bal Atl NE. Atl NE. EdCollins
NE. SF. Bal Sea Bal SF. Bal marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Sea Hou SF. SF. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Sea Bal SF. SF. marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Atl Bal SF. Bal marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Atl Bal SF. SF. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Atl NE. SF. NE. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Sea NE. SF. SF. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Atl NE. SF. SF. marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Atl Bal SF. Bal marksam40
NE. SF. Bal Atl Bal SF. SF. marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Sea Bal SF. SF. marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Atl Hou SF. SF. marksam40
Hou SF. Bal Sea Bal SF. Bal marksam40 **
Hou SF. Bal Atl Bal Atl Bal miplet
NE. SF. Bal Sea Bal Sea Sea miplet
Hou SF. Bal Sea Bal Sea Sea miplet
Hou SF. Bal Sea Bal Sea Bal miplet
NE. SF. Bal Sea Bal Sea Bal miplet
Hou SF. Bal Sea Hou Sea Hou miplet
Hou SF. Bal Sea Hou Sea Sea miplet
NE. SF. Bal Atl Bal Atl Atl miplet
NE. SF. Bal Atl Bal Atl Bal miplet **
NE. SF. Bal Sea NE. SF. NE. Mission146
NE. SF. Bal Sea NE. Sea NE. Mission146
NE. SF. Bal Sea NE. Sea Sea Mission146
Hou SF. Bal Atl Hou Atl Hou steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Atl Hou SF. Hou steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Sea Hou SF. Hou steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Atl Bal Atl Atl steeldco
NE. SF. Bal Atl NE. Atl Atl steeldco
Hou SF. Bal Atl Hou Atl Atl steeldco
I think I got them all, let me know if I deleted a BAL or SF by mistake.
Quote: BuzzardNot to worry NE won't be playing Denver anyway !
Who could have posted this ? Probably just beginner's luck !
Quote: BuzzardThe bet might never come off anyway. Talk about a tempest in a teapot.
Maybe it was not luck after all. I mean I did post it twice !
