Thursday night football
Did anyone else watch that game and what did you think about Harbaugh declining the penalty and taking 2 points off the board for the safety.
I sure liked the final score of 13-6 much more than the 15-6 that showed on the scoreboard with 40 seconds left.
Quote: DRichFor once I caught a break. I had the Seahwaks +8.5.
Did anyone else watch that game and what did you think about Harbaugh declining the penalty and taking 2 points off the board for the safety.
I sure liked the final score of 13-6 much more than the 15-6 that showed on the scoreboard with 40 seconds left.
It was the right call from his point of view - if he had taken the safety, Seattle has to kick off and they can try an onside kick. They would have had to score twice (how much time was left?) so it's not likely they would have won, but I feel like a couple snaps from the victory formation were a lower-risk proposition. See similar reasoning here.
Anyway, a lot of gamblers on both side of that line were probably pissed off/extraordinarily happy at Harbaugh.
Quote: AcesAndEightsAnyway, a lot of gamblers on both side of that line were probably pissed off/extraordinarily happy at Harbaugh.
Seahawks at +7½! BUUUUT I didn't bet on the game (don't bet thursday games since 2010 Thanksgiving!) so I was happy the 49ers won either way.
1. The Seahawks recover an onside kick, score, recover another onside kick, and score again, all in 43 seconds with no timeouts left
2. The 49ers fumble the snap in the victory formation, which is recovered by Seattle and either returned for a TD, or they score on the subesquent drive (again, all in 43 seconds with no timeouts)
I believe that #2 is more likely than #1, so the move that gives you the best chance of winning is to take the penalty and the 2 pts.
Having said that, both events are extremely unlikely, and there is a real risk of injury (for both teams) on an onside kick, so that might be enough to swing it to declining the penalty. The difference between, say, a 1/1,000 chance of losing and a 1/10,000 chance is, perhaps, not worth risking an injury (but I do believe that there is an order of magnitude difference between the 2 possibilities)
More importantly, I had the Seahawks +7.5 in my pool, so I'm glad he declined it :D
Quote: TIMSPEEDSeahawks at +7½! BUUUUT I didn't bet on the game (don't bet thursday games since 2010 Thanksgiving!) so I was happy the 49ers won either way.
What'd you have, and how'd you get screwed?
If I quit betting games for every day that correlated to a bad loss, I wouldn't bet on Monday, Thursday, Saturday (college) or Sunday!!!
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI disagree. There are 2 possible events here:
1. The Seahawks recover an onside kick, score, recover another onside kick, and score again, all in 43 seconds with no timeouts left
2. The 49ers fumble the snap in the victory formation, which is recovered by Seattle and either returned for a TD, or they score on the subesquent drive (again, all in 43 seconds with no timeouts)
I believe that #2 is more likely than #1, so the move that gives you the best chance of winning is to take the penalty and the 2 pts.
Having said that, both events are extremely unlikely, and there is a real risk of injury (for both teams) on an onside kick, so that might be enough to swing it to declining the penalty. The difference between, say, a 1/1,000 chance of losing and a 1/10,000 chance is, perhaps, not worth risking an injury (but I do believe that there is an order of magnitude difference between the 2 possibilities)
More importantly, I had the Seahawks +7.5 in my pool, so I'm glad he declined it :D
If a team is worried about losing the ball in the victory formation... they should quit playing football. Unless I'm wrong, there's not been a turn over in the Victory Formation for a LONG time in the NFL.
I think it being a gimme to take two knees, plus the avoidance of injuries make it a smart football play.
Quote: thecesspitIf a team is worried about losing the ball in the victory formation... they should quit playing football. Unless I'm wrong, there's not been a turn over in the Victory Formation for a LONG time in the NFL.
I think it being a gimme to take two knees, plus the avoidance of injuries make it a smart football play.
Actually, unless I'm wrong, there's NEVER been a turnover in the victory formation in the NFL.
+ 8.5 was a good bet. Congrats.
Quote: thecesspitIf a team is worried about losing the ball in the victory formation... they should quit playing football. Unless I'm wrong, there's not been a turn over in the Victory Formation for a LONG time in the NFL.
When is the last time a team recovered 2 onside kicks and scored 2 TDs, all in 43 seconds and no timeouts? I'm guessing that that's never happened.
The point is that neither outcome is likely. The question is, which is more likely?
Quote: Mission146Actually, unless I'm wrong, there's NEVER been a turnover in the victory formation in the NFL.
That's the whole point of that formation.
It goes back, in large part, to an Eagles vs Giants game in 1978 when the Giants fumbled the ball in the final seconds and lost the game. Here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_at_the_Meadowlands
The idea now of rushing the QB in that formation hoping to cause a fumble is rather pointless. The time it takes for the QB to kneel is just too short to make a fumble possible. Even if the play isn't whistled dead when he kneels, a ball-carrier with a knee in the ground is down by contact the instant an opposing player touches him.
About the only way to recover a fumble from a victory formation is if the QB and center muff the snap while the defense is rushing the QB. The odds of that ought to be infinitesimal.
It may be that at that point the team on defense has nothing to lose. that's true as far as a game goes. But I should think the chances of a defensive injury are higher than those of recovering the ball. So unless the season or a playoff game or the Super Bowl is on the line, it's just pointless.
Quote: NareedThat's the whole point of that formation.
It goes back, in large part, to an Eagles vs Giants game in 1978 when the Giants fumbled the ball in the final seconds and lost the game. Here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_at_the_Meadowlands
I know that! Thank you, though!
Quote:The idea now of rushing the QB in that formation hoping to cause a fumble is rather pointless. The time it takes for the QB to kneel is just too short to make a fumble possible. Even if the play isn't whistled dead when he kneels, a ball-carrier with a knee in the ground is down by contact the instant an opposing player touches him.
In addition to that, the QB technically does not even have to take a knee, but rather, he can merely simulate taking a knee. The fumble out of Victory Formation has happened in college ball, and remember, infinitesimal is not impossible. Greg Schiano doesn't quit, Rutgers NEVER quit!!!
"R-U Rah, Rah!
R-U Rah, Rah!
Hoo-Rah, Hoo-Rah!"
I'll spare you the rest...
Quote:It may be that at that point the team on defense has nothing to lose. that's true as far as a game goes. But I should think the chances of a defensive injury are higher than those of recovering the ball. So unless the season or a playoff game or the Super Bowl is on the line, it's just pointless.
Nothing to lose...but PRIDE!!! It's one thing if you're down fifty points, but why should a team bow down and submit when there is a mathematical chance for them to win the game? Injuries are a part of football. If you quit, your chances of scoring are zero.
(I'd also like to add....GO RUTGERS!!!)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhen is the last time a team recovered 2 onside kicks and scored 2 TDs, all in 43 seconds and no timeouts? I'm guessing that that's never happened.
The point is that neither outcome is likely. The question is, which is more likely?
The two onside kicks is more likely. As there's never been a fumbled victory formation, but there has been recovered on-side kicks, hail mary's and the all the rest, I'd put the odds at a 2 TD come back (or in this case, 1 TD and 1 Field goal would have been enough to take the score to 16-15).
I've seen crazy scoring in college :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEoa-KgUDQ0&feature=related (for example)
Also, the Lions scored two touchdowns with 47 seconds left and no timeouts (with only one onside kick) in week week 4 against the Titans. And that's just casting my mind back this season.
Just sayin'. No-one drops the ball in the Victory Formation. It runs out the clock, the game is played around the clock being run out that way in the last minutes.
Quote: Mission146The fumble out of Victory Formation has happened in college ball,
College football is a different game.
Quote:and remember, infinitesimal is not impossible.
Of course. And if you buy millions of lotto tickets, you're eventually bound to win. That doesn't make it a good investment.
Quote:Greg Schiano doesn't quit, Rutgers NEVER quit!!!
Meh.
Quote:Nothing to lose...but PRIDE!!! It's one thing if you're down fifty points, but why should a team bow down and submit when there is a mathematical chance for them to win the game?
If you're down by fifty points, there's a small chance that a meteorite will strike and wipe out the opposing team. IF that happens, the opposing team forfeits, as it can't finish the game. The chances of that are much better than recovering a fumble on a Victory formation in the NFL.
Quote:Injuries are a part of football.
A COSTLY part.
Quote: thecesspitThe two onside kicks is more likely. As there's never been a fumbled victory formation, but there has been recovered on-side kicks, hail mary's and the all the rest, I'd put the odds at a 2 TD come back (or in this case, 1 TD and 1 Field goal would have been enough to take the score to 16-15).
There have been fumbled snaps too. I'm not sure I understand your logic. Are you saying that because it has never happened in a victory formation, the probability is 0? Or are you saying that it's necessarily less than the probability of all those things happening? Just because all of them can happen individually doesn't mean that the probability of them all happening at the same time is not infinitesimal. You may have seen the number 1 be drawn in a lottery once, and also the number 2 in a different drawing, and 3 in a different drawing, etc, etc, up to 6, but it doesn't mean that the probability of next next lottery drawing being 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is not tiny.
Quote: thecesspit
Also, the Lions scored two touchdowns with 47 seconds left and no timeouts (with only one onside kick) in week week 4 against the Titans. And that's just casting my mind back this season.
No, they didn't. You aren't counting the full time of the first drive. When Detroit started the first drive there was 1:16 left and they had all three timeouts. They started the drive from their own 20. A safety kick occurs at the 20; it would be recovered at about the 30 (remember that onside kicks can't be advanced by the kicking team; only recovered) so there is only a 10 yard difference. Detroit did use their last timeout at 0:47, but by that time they were at the Tennessee 17. They used 29 seconds and 3 timeouts to get into that position.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThere have been fumbled snaps too. I'm not sure I understand your logic. Are you saying that because it has never happened in a victory formation, the probability is 0? Or are you saying that it's necessarily less than the probability of all those things happening? Just because all of them can happen individually doesn't mean that the probability of them all happening at the same time is not infinitesimal. You may have seen the number 1 be drawn in a lottery once, and also the number 2 in a different drawing, and 3 in a different drawing, etc, etc, up to 6, but it doesn't mean that the probability of next next lottery drawing being 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is not tiny.
Yeah, I understand that. I'm saying I've seen those individual things happen, so while all of them happening in a row is small, the chance of a victory formation snap being recovered by the opposition is much smaller. As I've never seen number 50 drawn in the lottery, while it's possible the ball could end up in the hopper....
I don't then think a onside kick and recover at your own 30, score and then kick/recover and FG isn't unimaginably small. A lost victory snap... is. Look at how it's done. The ball goes direct to the QB, who is flanked by two running backs, plus a backside RB to cover any fumble coming backwards, or tackle the defense recovering the ball, if that should happen.
The onside kick is about 1 in 5 to recover. So making two would be 1 in 25. Scoring from the 30 yard line in under 30 seconds? 1 in 20? Getting the ball to the 40 for a last second FG from the 40? 1 in 50? Hitting the 57 yarder? Huschka is 4 from 9 for 50+ kicks, though his longest is 54 yards. Say 1 in 3 for a 57 yarder...
=> 1 in 75,000 chance of happening. I would suggest that is bigger than 1 fumbles victory snap, then Scoring from the 20 yard line in 40 seconds (say that's 1 in 20 as well). Which would mean a if the victory fumble/recover would have to be less than 1 in 3,750. I contend the odds are far greater than that.
Of course, never having seen it happen doesn't mean it can't. I just contend the odds are over 1 in 4,000 (just taking a wild guess at the number of kneels in the 30 years at around 4,000). I don't think any of them have even been -fumbled- (which would be a prelude to a recovery).
Quote:
No, they didn't. You aren't counting the full time of the first drive. When Detroit started the first drive there was 1:16 left and they had all three timeouts. They started the drive from their own 20. A safety kick occurs at the 20; it would be recovered at about the 30 (remember that onside kicks can't be advanced by the kicking team; only recovered) so there is only a 10 yard difference. Detroit did use their last timeout at 0:47, but by that time they were at the Tennessee 17. They used 29 seconds and 3 timeouts to get into that position.
Damn, you spotted the flaw in that ;) But it does help my point slightly... scoring twice in 47 seconds (once from the red zone, once after a recovered onside kick) can happen. And has happened recently. I could probably trawl through over great comebacks and find better examples.
And all said and done... you take the knee, protect your players and go home with the Win.
Quote: thecesspitThe two onside kicks is more likely. As there's never been a fumbled victory formation, but there has been recovered on-side kicks, hail mary's and the all the rest, I'd put the odds at a 2 TD come back (or in this case, 1 TD and 1 Field goal would have been enough to take the score to 16-15).
I've seen crazy scoring in college :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEoa-KgUDQ0&feature=related (for example)
Also, the Lions scored two touchdowns with 47 seconds left and no timeouts (with only one onside kick) in week week 4 against the Titans. And that's just casting my mind back this season.
Just sayin'. No-one drops the ball in the Victory Formation. It runs out the clock, the game is played around the clock being run out that way in the last minutes.
That's awesome. Also I feel obligated to mention this.
