To Kickoff or Receive?
The question at hand is what is the propensity for every NFL team to kickoff or receive when they win the toss? This is important for bets on the winner of the first quarter. It is pretty obvious that teams that like to receive playing against a team that likes to kickoff, will have an improved chance of winning the first quarter...and losing the third. I don't know of any convenient statistics on this.
Just throwing out a bit of technical info..... Don't mind me :3
Quote: WizardWhat muddied the waters was the Patriots elected to receive the previous week against Green Bay.
The Patriots did not play Green Bay before the Super Bowl last year.
Quote: FinsRuleWouldn't the oddsmakers take these statistics into account already when setting the first quarter lines?
I'm sure they do. However, if I'm going to try to beat their lines I would like to know this information as well.
Quote: WizardOne interesting prop bet the last Super Bowl was the team to kickoff first. The Patriots were a big favorite, because the Giants usually, if not always, choose to receive first, and the Patriots usually choose to kickoff first.
I don't think anybody actually "chooses to kick off first," as this would mean you have to kick off to start the second half as well. Presumably, the Patriots choose to defer its choice until the second half. (Even back when the NFL didn't have the "defer" option, if I remember the rule correctly, the coin toss winner could choose which goal to defend in the first quarter, and would then have the choice of whether to kick or receive to start the second half.)
Quote: sodawaterI thought that before the defer option was in place, the coin toss winner got to make one choice: to kickoff or receive, or which goal to defend. The coin toss loser then got to make the remaining choice, and the first choice in the 2nd half.
That is close to what I thought. I thought the team kicking off in the first half got to choose to kick or receive at the start of the second half.
Quote: WizardThat is close to what I thought. I thought the team kicking off in the first half got to choose to kick or receive at the start of the second half.
I do believe the option to defer has always been how the coin tosses work, at least for the last 20 years.
You have the following options when you win the coin-toss:
1. Kickoff
2. Receive
3. Which goal to defend
4. Defer
Whoever loses the toss get's to select from the remaining options, and get's the first choice at the start of the second half, except when the winner chooses the defer option.
For this reason, the winner of the toss will almost always choose to either receive or defer. Otherwise, if one chooses to kick, then at the second half, your opponent would choose the receive resulting in you kicking off both halves.
It's pretty dumb, and in my opinion poor design...but to the captains who don't understand it (mainly noted in high school football) it often results in an advantage for the other team. I remember in high school, it was advantageous to lose the toss as occasionally you would get a kid whose coach told them "We want to play defense first", and thus the player would choose the kick option.
Quote: sodawaterJust looked it up. Before 2008 in the NFL, the coin toss winner at the start of the game could choose to kick, receive, or pick which goal to defend. There was no option to defer, so you basically had to choose to receive every time, because the other team would get the same set of choices at the start of the 3rd quarter.
NFL introduced the option to defer in 2008, so the coin toss winner could elect to have first choice in the 3rd quarter instead of the 1st. Deferring effectively forces the losing coin toss team to choose to receive, otherwise the deferring team could get the ball twice.
Looks like you are right. I guess I assumed that NFL and NCAAFB had the same coin toss rules. I guess they don't...
Quote: Triplell
Whoever loses the toss get's to select from the remaining options, and get's the first choice at the start of the second half, except when the winner chooses the defer option.
For this reason, the winner of the toss will almost always choose to either receive or defer. Otherwise, if one chooses to kick, then at the second half, your opponent would choose the receive resulting in you kicking off both halves.
Huh? Since when can you be forced to kick off both halves? Impossible.
Whoever wins the toss can choose to kick or receive or defer. The advantage of "defer" is if you want to choose a particular goal to defend in the 1st and 3rd quarters. This may be useful in a place like Heinz Field, where there is absolutely a difference in kicking field goals to the open end vs the closed end. Or in say Cleveland where you might want the other side to have to face the Dawg Pound in the 4th quarter.
Of course the wind can and does shift, but in the end you usually know what it is like. In an indoor venue, the defer option is near useless IMHO.
An advantage to choosing "kick" is that if you have the ball late in the 2nd quarter you get it at the start of the 3rd, which means you can score twice in a row with no chance for the other team, and you can at the same time keep their offense off the field for nearly an hour if you have two long drives, resulting in a cooled down offense for them.
Quote: AZDuffmanHuh? Since when can you be forced to kick off both halves? Impossible.
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An advantage to choosing "kick" is that if you have the ball late in the 2nd quarter you get it at the start of the 3rd, which means you can score twice in a row with no chance for the other team, and you can at the same time keep their offense off the field for nearly an hour if you have two long drives, resulting in a cooled down offense for them.
I don't think so. If you win the toss (or lose the toss and the winner defers) and you choose to kick off, that's fine. Then at the start of the second half the other team gets their choice. They may choose to receive. You aren't forced to kick off both times; you chose to do it one of those times.
Quote: DocI don't think so. If you win the toss (or lose the toss and the winner defers) and you choose to kick off, that's fine. Then at the start of the second half the other team gets their choice. They may choose to receive. You aren't forced to kick off both times; you chose to do it one of those times.
Are you sure we are watching the same NFL?
1. At the start of the game there is a coin toss
2. Toss decides who will kick off or receive
3. One team kicks off, other receives
4. In beginning of second half the team that kicked off in the 1st receives THERE IS NO NEW COIN TOSS!
5. Direction of field changes with each quarter
6. If there is an OT there is a new coin toss
Repeat, ALL choices are made at the initial coin toss, there is no "new" choice at the second half, just a new coin toss if there is an OT
Quote: TriplellYou have the following options when you win the coin-toss:
1. Kickoff
2. Receive
3. Which goal to defend
4. Defer
Whoever loses the toss get's to select from the remaining options, and get's the first choice at the start of the second half, except when the winner chooses the defer option.
For this reason, the winner of the toss will almost always choose to either receive or defer. Otherwise, if one chooses to kick, then at the second half, your opponent would choose the receive resulting in you kicking off both halves.
I don't think anybody suggested there another coin toss to start the second half. What is described above is correct. The option to defer simply means that at the start of the second have, the team that won the coin toss at the start of the game gets to select options 1-3 above.
Quote: AZDuffman4. In beginning of second half the team that kicked off in the 1st receives THERE IS NO NEW COIN TOSS!
As MidwestAP said, we all know that there isn't a second coin toss. However, if the team kicked off in the first half because they chose to do so, then it is quite possible that for the second half the other team will choose to receive again. Just because you chose to kick off doesn't mean you can force the other guys to choose to kick off also -- it's their choice that time.
Quote: DocAs MidwestAP said, we all know that there isn't a second coin toss. However, if the team kicked off in the first half because they chose to do so, then it is quite possible that for the second half the other team will choose to receive again. Just because you chose to kick off doesn't mean you can force the other guys to choose to kick off also -- it's their choice that time.
Let me explain this again, sorry for the caps, but THERE IS NO CHOICE AT THE BEGINING OF THE SECOND HALF.
After the coin toss the following decisions are made, regardless of who makes them.
First, one team will kick to start the game and one will receicve. This is reversed in the second half. So for example:
Pittsburgh kickes in the first half, Cleveland receives. Then in the second half Cleveland will kick and Pittsburgh will receive.
At the same time each team will defend a different goal, as such:
Q1: Pittsburgh defends the south goal
Q2: Pittsburgh defends the north goal
Q3: Pittsburgh defends the south goal
Q4: Pittsburgh defends the north goal
All of this is in place 30 seconds after the coin toss is decided. There is no "new" choice at the start of the 2nd half. Never.
Quote: sodawaterThe winner of the coin toss in the NFL gets to choose to:
1. kick off
2. receive
3. defend a certain goal
4. defer that decision.
If the team that wins the coin toss does anything but defer the decision, the team that loses the coin toss gets the first three choices to start the second half.
Important point in that statement: there is a choice of which direction the teams go in the third quarter; it can be in the same direction that they were going in the second quarter. This could be very important if, for example, there is a strong wind going towards one of the end zones.
Quote: ThatDonGuyImportant point in that statement: there is a choice of which direction the teams go in the third quarter; it can be in the same direction that they were going in the second quarter. This could be very important if, for example, there is a strong wind going towards one of the end zones.
GRRR
NO
The team that wins can choose to kick, receive, or defer.
The only reason to defer is to pick which end of the field you want to defend first.
You cannot "go the same direction" the second and third quarter, it changes each quarter.
YOU ARE NOT "DEFERING" TO CHOOSE FIRST THE SECOND HALF, YOU ARE JUST ELECTING TO PICK WHICH GOAL TO DEFEND FIRST!
EDIT: My apologies if I missed that they changed the rule on this. I have not followed the NFL much at all this year, having given up on some of their behavior. I shall not comment on, or even look at this thread again.
Quote: AZDuffmanGRRR
NO
The team that wins can choose to kick, receive, or defer.
The only reason to defer is to pick which end of the field you want to defend first.
You cannot "go the same direction" the second and third quarter, it changes each quarter.
YOU ARE NOT "DEFERING" TO CHOOSE FIRST THE SECOND HALF, YOU ARE JUST ELECTING TO PICK WHICH GOAL TO DEFEND FIRST!
EDIT: My apologies if I missed that they changed the rule on this. I have not followed the NFL much at all this year, having given up on some of their behavior. I shall not comment on, or even look at this thread again.
Lol, nice edit. This rule was changed like 4 years ago.
Quote: AZDuffmanLet me explain this again, sorry for the caps, but THERE IS NO CHOICE AT THE BEGINING OF THE SECOND HALF.
All of this is in place 30 seconds after the coin toss is decided. There is no "new" choice at the start of the 2nd half. Never.
Just not true, Rule 4 Section 2 Article 2 of the 2012 NFL Rule book reads:
Article 2 Not more than three minutes befor the kickoff of the first half, the Referee, in the presence of both team's captains shall toss a coin at the center of the field. Prior to the Referee's toss, the call of "heads" or "tails" must be made by the captain of the visiting team, or by the captain desingated by the Referee if there is not a home team. Unless the winner of the toss defers his choice to the second half, he must choose one of two privileges, and the loser is given the other. The two privileges are:
(a) The oppportunity to receive the kickoff, or to kick off; or
(b) The choice of goal his team will defend.
Penalty: For failure to comply: Loss of coin-toss option for both halves and overtime, and loss of 15 yards from the spot of the kickoff for the first half only.
For the second half, the captain who lost the pregame toss is to have the first choice of the two privileges listed in (a) or (b), unless one of teams lost its first and second half option pursuant to 4-2-1, or unless the winner of the pregame toss deferred his choice to the second half, in which case he must choose (a) or (b) above. Immediately prior to the start of the second half, the captains of both teams must inform the Referee of their respective choices.
Quote: cestanlI'm not sure that it really makes much difference here, but I'd just like to mention that, to win the coin toss in a football game and elect to kick off is a rather HORRIBLE decision, which would mean you won't be getting the ball in the second half either. Most teams would elect to defer their option to the second half if they chose not to receive right away.
Just throwing out a bit of technical info..... Don't mind me :3
You elect to defer, which means you kickoff and then receive the ball at the start of the second half. Patriots do it most of the time, if not all.
As I mentioned a while ago, once in high school my team had to kick off to start both halves, because we didn't understand the "defer" rule (which is rarely exercised in high school ball).
Source: The Strategy and Consequences of the N.F.L. Coin Toss.
The article adds, "The Packers have won eight tosses this year, and have deferred six times. Five teams have deferred every time they have won the toss — the 49ers, the Bengals, the Bills, the Patriots and the Ravens. Teams coached by the Harbaugh brothers have won a combined 12 coin tosses, and have deferred each time, a family tradition that neither brother wished to discuss."
What I'd like to see is full statistics for every NFL team.
When i was in high school there was a team that was unscored upon in 10 straight games over the course of a season and a half they ALWAYS kicked 1st and tried to play field position.
