What are the odds of a team winning 3 games in a row.

What are the chances of 2 evenly matched teams winning all 3 games. I have it calculated at 12.5%, about 9%. Is that correct? Thanks in advance to people better at math than I am :-)

Yes, prior to all three games being played, and all other things being egual, that is correct.

1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8 or 12.5%

Once a team has won two games, for example, the chances that team wins the third game is, of course, back to 50%.

I agree on the 12.5% or 1 in 8.
No clue on the 9%

You are asking a binomial distribution question.
Many online calculators available
Formulas also. Let us see how many post the formula,

My data


This can answer questions like winning 2 out of 3
or
winning at least 1 in 3

Thanks for the response. The Heat series was good to me.

Question for next year. If 2 evenly teams meet in a 7 game series and one team is ahead 2-1, what are the odds, or numbers, of that team getting to 4 wins.

Thanks,

Big Pete

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silly

Sally

My question to you is...
What is the chance that the 1-2 team wins the series in 6 or 7 games??

I am a college dropout trying to answer a question from a mathematician? :-) So much for Independence Day as I stretch my average IQ.

The answer is: it all should add up to 1.0 or 100%. In this case .3125?

I am trying to convert .6875 to odds. Could you please do that? I had a tough time with College Algebra and am very rusty on decimals.

From a real world perspective, as you have kind enough to answer my questions, is that after game 3 and the Miami Heat were 2-1 and the odds were Heat minus 170 to win 100, I bet that. After the Heat won the next game and went to 3-1, the odds varied from 415-100 to 450-100. I did a simple calculation and bet that too. After your answer on the odds on .6875, I am curious to know which was the better bet. I think the second bet was better but that is just a guess.

My hobby is blackjack and betting sports.

Thanks and Happy 4th!!

Big Pete

Quote: bigpete88

I am trying to convert .6875 to odds. Could you please do that? I had a tough time with College Algebra and am very rusty on decimals.

0.6875 = 6875 / 10000.
Divide both sides by 625: 0.6875 = 11/16.

Thanks Don!!

Could you please do one more coversion in turning the fraction into a price line like 150 to win 100.

Thanks!!

Big Pete

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silly

Caution- I sucked at math in high school, but here's how I do it:

I estimate a teams chances of winning, then turn that percentage into a betting line (odds per $100)

Using your example of 11/16 (11 ways to win out of 16)

11/16 = 0.6875 or 68.75%

100 / 68.75 = 1.4545

1.4545 - 1 = 0.4545

100 / 0.4545 = 220 or -220

I would compare my line of -220 vs the betting line.

I think that's right. If I've been doing it wrong all these years, someone please let me know.

Also, even if I'm correct, the mathematically inclined are probably laughing right now.

They probably know a much easier way to do it.

Good one.
Laughing is good!

I have used to convert a winning percentage to the US money line, no vig,
win% and lose %

(large% / small%) * 100
example: 0.6875 / 0.3125 = 2.2 * 100 = 220

My way has always been very easy for me.
It does not even matter which is the winning percentage

Quote: guido111

Good one.
Laughing is good!

I have used to convert a winning percentage to the US money line, no vig,
win% and lose %

(large% / small%) * 100
example: 0.6875 / 0.3125 = 2.2 * 100 = 220

My way has always been very easy for me.
It does not even matter which is the winning percentage

Like I said, they probably know a much easier way. Thanks guido!

See what happens when you don't pay attention in school?

Roundman.....we need help!! :-)

The 2 calculators that I used online showed that 11/16 is 59.26% and -145.45 to win 100.

More importantly, if those numbers are correct, my bet on the Heat, after they went 2-1 in the final series, of -170 to win 100 was bad odds

You would need to enter 5/11 into the online calculator; not 11/16.

And yeah, you're right. We do need help!!! Good luck!

Guido,

Good to see you post again. Need the IQ here!!

Did you read from the first post? I am trying to find out what the money line would be in a 7 game series for the winning team if that team goes 2-1.

Mustang Sally posted some numbers but not the money line as bettors need.

Thanks again.

Big Pete

Roundman,

Thanks. You may have been not paying attention at school but I was truant.

You are right that 5/11 converts to -220 but how can a fraction go from 11/16 to 5/11? Why would the denominator change? Gives me a headache. Makes counting cards like 1+1, seem easy, which it is...ha ha ha

I am glad I do not have any wine here or it would opened already, East Coast Time :-)

If the line is correct at -220, at least my Heat bet made sense and I am grateful to be on the right side of odds on any, and all, wagers.

Cheers

Quote: bigpete88

You are right that 5/11 converts to -220 but how can a fraction go from 11/16 to 5/11?
Why would the denominator change?

Because 11/16 is just what mustangsally said.

11 ways to win out of 16 total possible ways - the overall probability

Odds are expressed as:
(# of ways to lose) / (# of ways to win)

since there are 11 ways to win and 5 ways to lose
5/11 is the fractional odds

Enjoy!

Europe bound!
a Maria Ho fan

Guido,

You are a poker fan?? Great!!

I am going back to the casino soon too. Time for more blackjack and more $$. Last year was good.

Have a great trip and thanks for the math numbers. I will apply it again next year in real life basketball playoffs :-)

Peter

bigpete- if you bet basketball, I'm sure you bet football.

Why don't you start a football handicapping thread. I'd love to follow that thru the upcoming season.

Preseason only 30 days away......

Roundman,

You can make a very large bet that I wager any time I think that the odds are in my favor, otherwise like Kelly Criterion insists, the optimal bet size is zero. By the way, I bet fractional Kelly.

I will consider posting football picks and let you know if I do.

Everyone have a great weekend!! :-)

You sound like the perfect guy to start a sports betting thread.

It would make for a good ongoing discussion. Figures to be very popular.

I wanted to thank everyone for the answers. I filed away the odds, 220-100, for next years NBA finals. As a token of my appreciation, my next post is some info that you might want to read, when in the mood, for reading a rather long article that I wrote.

Thanks again.

Big Pete

Sports Betting as a Business

Probably the least understood aspect of successful sports betting is related to money management. Money management is just as important as handicapping when it comes to having a profitable season. Sheer odds will dictate that everybody will pick winning teams on occasion, but not everybody knows how to manage their money in a manner that will maximize profits or minimize losses.

There are two things that are mandatory to make money betting sports:

1. Money Management
2. Handicappers that are plus expected value

For anyone new to this industry, it requires a win rate of 52.38% to break even at -110 to win 100.

The following is based on a gambling bankroll of $35,000. If your bankroll is $3,500 just drop one zero.

Betting $5,000 a day, everyday. $1,000 a game, 5 games if, and only if, you have + expected value games. Bet less money per game if more games are bet per day, same results. Risking roughly 15% of bankroll each day.

Here are the numbers over 60 days (60 days x 5 games):

300 bets @ 55%

165 wins
135 losses

$300,000 wagered:

$165,000 won
$135,000 lost
$30,000 net before juice
$13,500 10% juice
$16,500 net after 60 days @ 55%

Based on the above numbers, it would take approximately 4 months to be ahead $33,000. Basically, doubling every 4 months, not taking out any profit.

If you get less than 5 games a day from your handicapper or his winning percentage is lower than 55%, it will take you longer than 4 months to double your bankroll. If you are not getting 55% + from your handicapper, you should start shopping for one that will produce these numbers, or better, over long term.
For a more aggressive investor, here are some other numbers to look at if 10 (plus expected value) wagers present themselves in one day:

The following is also based on a gambling bankroll of $35,000.

Betting $10,000 a day, everyday, $1,000 a game, 10 games if, and only if, you have plus expected value games. Bet less money per game if more games are bet per day, same results. Risking roughly 30% of bankroll each day.

Here are the numbers over 30 days (30 days x 10 games):

300 bets @ 55%

165 wins
135 losses

$300,000 wagered:

$165,000 won
$135,000 lost
$30,000 net before juice
$13,500 10% juice
$16,500 net after 30 days @ 55%


Based on the above numbers, it would take approximately 2 months to be ahead $33,000. Basically, doubling every 2 months, not taking out any profit.

If you decide on betting 10 games a day and have a limited bankroll, I would suggest that you make half bets for 60 days to build your bankroll just to be safe. That would be 1.5% of your bankroll per bet.

If your goal is to get rich, you will need to treat sports betting as a business. You will need to keep a separate bankroll and increase your bet size as your bankroll grows.

Let’s use the above mentioned numbers and look at this project long term. Plan on doubling your bankroll 3 times. At that point, your bet size will be $8,000 per wager and you would have grown your bankroll from $35,000 to $280,000. You can wager $40,000 per day and still be well under the proper percentage bet size for Kelly Criterion. If your handicappers are doing their job and your single bet size is $8,000, you will have a very strong income.

The average bet size recommended by most professionals is 2-3% maximum per bet and a maximum bet of 10-15% per betting period. That can mean that if early games are completed before the late games, there can be up to 20-30% of bankroll bet per day.
Here are some other numbers to consider if someone were to make 4-10 wagers each day for 365 days. Using the coin flip analogy of a 50% win rate (instead of 55%), the odds of winning, or losing, 4 out of 4 games is roughly 6%. Betting 4 games every day would result in roughly 22 days of winning, or losing, all 4 bets in one year. Not an uncommon event, mathematically.

Anyone that places wagers should understand this for several reason. One reason would be to manage bet size. The other reason would be to not get real upset on losing days nor elated on winning days. Over the long run, you would win 4 out of 4 games 11 times a year and lose 4 out of 4 games 11 times.

FYI, here are the rough odds on winning or losing all 3-10 games basing winning percentage at a conservative 50% win rate instead of 55%. It helps to put money mgt. in perspective and to realize that you can only have a certain percentage of your bankroll wagered at one time period. You can expect to win, or lose, all of your wagers accordingly:

1. 3 games: 12.5%

2. 4 games: 6.25%

3. 5 games: roughly 3 %

4. 6 games: roughly 1.5%

5. 7 games: roughly .75%

6. 8 games: roughly .4%

7. 9 games: roughly .2%

8. 10 games: roughly .1%

Do not concern yourself with daily figures as much as with monthly figures. You will have a lot of winning days and a lot of losing days. Even world famous sports bettor Billy Walters has losing days and months. The S + P stock index chart did not go up at a 45 degree angle without plenty of dips. You want your bankroll to grow but a little choppy is to be expected.

The following is the percentage advantage of different winning percentages:

52.5% .25%

53.0% 1.30%

53.5% 2.35%

54.0% 3.40%

54.5% 4.45%

55.0% 5.50%

55.5% 6.55%

56.0% 7.60%

There is one other point that should be mentioned here. In gambling, mathematics and statistics, numbers can vary greatly over the short term. The terms used for this are variance, fluctuation or standard deviation. The results of this, short term, can and will, result in a higher percentage of losses or wins.

Worst Case Scenario

Every long term successful gambler and investor prepares for the worst case scenario because negative standard deviation is going to rear its ugly head at some point. Investors may remember Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). John Meriwether started this Hedge Fund in 1993. This fund was hugely successful for years until negative fluctuation came into play. LTCM lost more than a billion dollars and almost 90% of the funds capital.

Jeffrey Ma, M.I.T. graduate and author of “The House Advantage” always had his blackjack team make optimal bet size based on worst case scenario. Mr. Ma, and team, managed to make more than a million dollars without the stress or risk of going broke by making wagers larger than their bankroll allows.

There was a time in 1989 when I was playing blackjack and doing very well. On one trip to Atlantic City, I had won quite a few sessions and was up $8,000. Then, the wrong side of variance appeared. I lost at least 10 of the next sessions. I turned a winning trip into a losing one. I now avoid that by using a “stop win.” I would have stopped playing on that trip with a plus $5,000 if I knew what I know now. I also wrote Blackjack Super-System.

More currently in basketball, I was handicapping NBA and did well for the 2011-2012 season. I started using the same filters for WNBA and started to win. Then, the tide turned once again. I went 1-2 one day and lost the next 9 games. As soon as I went negative for one game, meaning 3-4, I quit betting and just monitored the other losing games.


Here is one filter that you can use if you pay for or monitor a handicappers picks. If that person goes negative for one game, quit making bets on that handicapper until they have been monitored for at least 100 picks and come out at least 55%. The only exception to that rule would be if the handicapper had a long winning track record and was using sound statistics in making his choices giving you a mathematical advantage. Doctor Bob, who is arguably one of the worlds most famous handicappers, told his clients to keep betting his picks even when he was going through and awful string of loses. Doctor Bob was correct as he is one of the few handicappers that have a proven track record. To quote Doctor Bob “even a 56-60% handicapper can run 8-30.”

The examples of losing streaks (standard deviation, negative fluctuation, variance) can go on and on for pages. If you want to be a long term successful sports bettor, size your bets so that you can weather the storm and come out intact. This will allow you to be a winner in the long term along with the benefit of less stress.

There are at least nine different sports that you can wager on:

1. NBA
2. NCAAB
3. NFL
4. NCAAF
5. MLB
6. Soccer
7. NHL
8. Golf
9. Tennis

You should expect to get 5-25 single net unit bets, after juice, from your handicappers. One may have a small loss or a break even year. You can expect that. Even the best run cool or cold. Consider keeping that handicapper if he has a great long term track record. The handicappers that do not perform long term need to go. Feel free to fire handicappers that do not perform long term. I have fired plenty. This a handicapping and money management contest, not who has the biggest brain. You now have the money management information so it boils down to a handicapping contest. Also, there will be a cost of the handicapper(s) to be figured into your business expenses.

Betting tips:

1. A very important aspect of betting on sports is shopping for the best number. There will be more discrepancy in the numbers on different sports at different sports books. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. On college sports and daily events like the NBA, you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon a half point to three point differences in the lines. When you are betting your hard earned money, getting the best line is a top priority.

2. The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early. Squares usually bet later in the day (or week, for football) and they tend to pick the favorites. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the Pros are laying heavy money on the points. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.

3. There will be a lot of games that you will be betting a small underdog and getting points. You might have the option of taking the points or betting the money line. For example in the NFL, a 3 three point underdog will be priced at about +140 on the money line versus -110 to win 100 if you take three points. That is a huge price difference. Historically, the point spread matters in only 16% of the games.

4. Unless you are already rich, I would suggest that you keep your day job until your bankroll gets so big that it makes more sense to find the best line than go to work. Everyone has monthly expenses and you do not need the strain of living off winnings from a small bankroll. The people that do not compound will not get rich. Do not dip into your gambling bankroll until it is huge.

5. Beware of handicappers stating a win rate over 60%. It is improbable that a handicapper can do any better than 60% over 1000+ wagers. There might be a rare few. Most professional gamblers expect 55%-58% and are ecstatic if a handicapper does any better than that. There is a lot of false advertising with handicappers (touts and tout services).

If you are interested in getting rich betting sports, manage your money perfectly and have plus expected value handicappers. Then, double your bankroll repeatedly. Billy Walters did it and you can do it too. Warren Buffett did it in stocks at a much slower rate. Just do it with laser focus and do not let anything get in your way.