Slot Machine challenges (similar to betting system challenges)

Knowledgeable members of these forums greatly helped me tweak my betting system challenge a while back. So now I'm finally getting around to asking for feedback on my slot machine challenges. Basically, the main question I'd like to answer is, Are the challenges sufficiently resistant to exploits, and if not, how should I alter them?

Here's the current wording:

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

Anyone claiming that higher-paying slot machines are found in certain places at the casino (e.g., near the change booths, near the coffee shop, etc.) is invited to put their money where their mouth is with this challenge.
* You pick what you think is a high-paying machine for you to play and what you think is a low-playing machine for me to play, at a Vegas casino.
* Each of us will then play 2000 spins and we'll see who's ahead of the other at the end.
* I'll wager my $1000 against your $1200 that you will not be ahead of me at the end.
* Your machine and my machine must be the same denomination ($0.01 to $1.00), the same coinage (e.g., 2- or 3-coin game), the same flavor (physical or video reels), same manufacturer.
* The machine you pick for me must be a standard non-progressive machine, and not a novelty machine (like one of the huge machines that's three times larger than a regular machine).
* Each of us banks our own spins.

Quote: Slot Challenge #2

Anyone claiming to be able to beat slot machines is invited to put their money where their mouth is with this challenge.
* You will play at least 3000 spins across any number of slot machines. You get to pick which machines to play and how you want to play them, using your own special techniques.
* If you are ahead at the end I will pay you $1000. If you are behind you will pay me $1000.
* You bank your spins yourself.
* Play must be completed in a no more than 3 sessions lasting no longer than eight hours total at any single Vegas casino.
* You can choose any number of spins above 3000, as long as you choose the number before you start playing.
* If you can truly beat slot machines this should be an easy win for you.

Note that a difference between the slot challenges and the betting system challenges are that someone could win the slot challenges through pure luck. So I don't offer 10:1 odds on the slot challenges, and I keep the stakes low to limit my risk.

I would rule out Blackjack, Video Poker, and Keno machines, which may or may not be legally considered slots. I see that you specified "physical or video reels" so I think you are covered.

Does the player get to choose any machine or does the player have to propose a hypothesis, such as "better paying machines are near the buffet" and then choose machines based on that hypothesis?

If I were to take you up on the first offer, I think I would put you on the bank that advertises "5X points." I'm not certain, but I think that's a give away that you are playing horrible paytables.

Its nice to have a "put your money where your mouth is" option. However, the fact remains that slot machine placement is an ever changing situation driven by many factors including predictions of crowd flow and assumptions of current interests. Routine maintenance often results in re-arranged slot machines, attempts to use a foreign device often result in slot machine re-location, any whim of a slot machine director to follow that old wives tale would soon be weakened by routine adjustments. Yet it is is within the power of a slots director to actually institute some such policy. Of course if the casino were small enough it could simply happen by chance.
Now since the wager is really low for all the work that would have to go into the research and casinos often don't like anyone looking at serial numbers it would hard to disprove other than through a challenge which really is just a bet of 1200 to 1000.

So do you really think that 2,000 spins would answer the underlying question of "Near X pays Max"?

This reminds me of those creepy scam artists who go around saying "psst... that machine can be turned "hot" by my friend over their who knows the secret codes which he will be happy to manipulate if you agree to give us half your winnings" ... its just too easy to turn out that the machine suddenly will get "hot" ... but it won't be due to some jerk's secret button pushing.

As I read the challenges...

Challenge #1 is for the people that think they know the "hot" and "cold" zones of the slot floor.

Challenge #2 is for people that think that the cosmic karma is looking over them and not you, or that the have a "slot system" or whatever.

In either case, that person should be expecting not just to beat you, but to be significantly ahead of you. Therefore, he shouldn't win just because he comes out one penny ahead. It should be some percentage ahead. Doesn't have to be much. Maybe as low as having at least 1% more than what you have, but enough to show he really was a bigger winner (or smaller loser).

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Quote: Slot Challenge #1

* I'll wager my $1000 against your $1200 that you will not be ahead of me at the end.

I don't see why Challenge #1 has him giving you odds, and Challenge #2 does not. Frankly, neither needs odds if you use my "significantly ahead" rule.

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I also question how it's going to be monitored to ensure that the minimum spins is accomplished and that there's no cheating, but I assume you've got that part worked out - or you'll figure it out before the challenge is agreed to.

I am not a slot player, but it is my understanding that a casino is allowed to use different chips, with different payout rates, on otherwise-similar machines if they want to. They just aren't likely to announce which are the "good" machines and which are the "bad" ones. I realize that in your challenge #1, you are assuming that if such a situation exists, it is not really based on location in the casino and that your challenger will not likely be able to figure out a good machine and a bad machine with which to challenge you. I think you are at risk of losing to someone who has inside information. Are you confident that there is not a single slot tech who would be willing to tell a friend where a "bad" chip has been installed?

Quote: Doc

I am not a slot player, but it is my understanding that a casino is allowed to use different chips, with different payout rates, on otherwise-similar machines if they want to. They just aren't likely to announce which are the "good" machines and which are the "bad" ones. I realize that in your challenge #1, you are assuming that if such a situation exists, it is not really based on location in the casino and that your challenger will not likely be able to figure out a good machine and a bad machine with which to challenge you. I think you are at risk of losing to someone who has inside information. Are you confident that there is not a single slot tech who would be willing to tell a friend where a "bad" chip has been installed?

Exactly my thinking, and more well written than I cared to attempt.

Quote: Doc

Are you confident that there is not a single slot tech who would be willing to tell a friend where a "bad" chip has been installed?

If such a slot tech existed, would he suddenly give a friend the info because of this challenge? Seems to me he'd provide the info regardless.

Also, I'd think that both the tech and player would avoid the challenge in order to keep a low profile.

Quote: Doc

Are you confident that there is not a single slot tech who would be willing to tell a friend where a "bad" chip has been installed?

I'd be fairly confident. Even the best slots are not an advantage play, right? So knowing them wouldn't be all that useful. Therefore I don't see a tech or a manager risking their job by handing out inside info on that subject. Unless the "good" chips are so good they overpay and create a player advantage. But in that case, the tech and her friend would be quietly bleeding the casino long term.

Of course the challenge could make such information flow. But if you knew all the factors involved and could weigh them with a large degree of confidence, it would hardly be a gamble.

Nareed & DJ:

I didn't mean to imply that there are really "good" machines or that a player advantage ever exists vs. the casino. But it is not implausible to me that a slot tech might tell a friend or relative, "we swapped from 88% chips to 81% chips on that row of machines over by the party pit." Particularly if there were $1,000 available from Michael BlueJay that they could pick up with that little bit of knowledge.

Oh. That makes more sense.

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

Anyone claiming that higher-paying slot machines are found in certain places at the casino (e.g., near the change booths, near the coffee shop, etc.) is invited to put their money where their mouth is with this challenge.
* You pick what you think is a high-paying machine for you to play and what you think is a low-playing machine for me to play, at a Vegas casino.
* Each of us will then play 2000 spins and we'll see who's ahead of the other at the end.
* I'll wager my $1000 against your $1200 that you will not be ahead of me at the end.
* Your machine and my machine must be the same denomination ($0.01 to $1.00), the same coinage (e.g., 2- or 3-coin game), the same flavor (physical or video reels), same manufacturer.
* The machine you pick for me must be a standard non-progressive machine, and not a novelty machine (like one of the huge machines that's three times larger than a regular machine).
* Each of us banks our own spins.

Assume the challenger is a high roller who likes to play $100 slots. Are you willing to put $200k coin-in, and lose at least $8k (assuming 96% return) to win only $1,200, and risk losing another $1,000 on what amounts to basically a coin flip? A player at this level can easily absorb the loss. Could you?

Quote: Slot Challenge #2

Anyone claiming to be able to beat slot machines is invited to put their money where their mouth is with this challenge.
* You will play at least 3000 spins across any number of slot machines. You get to pick which machines to play and how you want to play them, using your own special techniques.
* If you are ahead at the end I will pay you $1000. If you are behind you will pay me $1000.
* You bank your spins yourself.
* Play must be completed in a no more than 3 sessions lasting no longer than eight hours total at any single Vegas casino.
* You can choose any number of spins above 3000, as long as you choose the number before you start playing.
* If you can truly beat slot machines this should be an easy win for you.

I am not familiar with common slot ""systems", but wouldn't a component of a winning system be to stop losses and bank winnings? Forcing a challenger to play 3,000 spins creates an artificial hurdle that I don't think you would encounter in a "serious" (cough, cough, sorry, I just threw up in my mouth a little bit) slot system player. Nevertheless, here is how I would do it:
-- Start with $1 slots. If ever up $30, stop.
-- Move to penny slot, play one cent a spin for the balance of the 3,000 spin minimum.
How often would a $1 slot player be up $30? I am totally guessing, but maybe a 50% chance in the first 100 spins? The bottom line is that having the option to switch to penny a spin "econo-mode" at anytime, negates the 3,000 spin minimum.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

...* Your machine and my machine must be the same denomination ($0.01 to $1.00), ....

Assume the challenger is a high roller who likes to play $100 slots. Are you willing to put $200k coin-in, and lose at least $8k (assuming 96% return) to win only $1,200, and risk losing another $1,000 on what amounts to basically a coin flip? A player at this level can easily absorb the loss. Could you?

It appears he has that part covered.

Quote: Doc

Quote: Ayecarumba

Quote: Slot Challenge #1

...* Your machine and my machine must be the same denomination ($0.01 to $1.00), ....

Assume the challenger is a high roller who likes to play $100 slots. Are you willing to put $200k coin-in, and lose at least $8k (assuming 96% return) to win only $1,200, and risk losing another $1,000 on what amounts to basically a coin flip? A player at this level can easily absorb the loss. Could you?

It appears he has that part covered.

Thanks for pointing that out Doc. Still, the expected loss just running challenge #1, even at a dollar max, needs to be considered. I would assume anyone who takes it up, will play dollar slots due to the generally higher expected return. I would put Bluejay on Megabucks, with its lousy 89% expected return. Of his $6,000 through, he would be expected to lose $660. All for a chance to win $1000 on a coin flip?

Megabucks is a progressive. Besides, both machines have to be the same "type" (unless I misunderstand the rules about same manufacturer).

I would suggest Mr Bluejay limits the total coin if he wants to safe guard himself (I assume there's $1 machines that have multiple lines and multi-coin per line that could make a $1 machine over $100 per spin = $200,000 coin in).

I am surprised that the hypothesis here seems to be that all machines in a casino of the same base type have the same payout.

Quote: thecesspit

I am surprised that the hypothesis here seems to be that all machines in a casino of the same base type have the same payout.

I don't think it is this at all. He is wagering $1000 against $1200. Because of the variance, the player would need to find a machine that is about 2% higher in order to have a break even bet. The player can gain an advantage if player finds machines with the lowest possible variance and actually identify machines with a difference in payback.

If the machines were the same return, then the player has a 50% chance of winning $1000 and a 50% chance of losing $1200. That's an expected loss of $100. It sounds like a pretty fair gamble and I'd like to see someone try... but, it wouldn't prove the player right or wrong because of the limited number of games.

I would refine the rules of the challenges to say that both machines must not just be the same type as in mechanical reels vs. virtual reels, but the same exact machines, because with video slots there are secondary bonus games to consider and not all bonus games are the same; some allow the player to make choices while others simply award so many free spins.

I would also specify that both players must wager the same amount on every spin because a lot of slot players have the superstition that varying the coin-in can have an effect on the outcome (I call it the "Ocean's Eleven Syndrome"). Plus, when you get into multi-line machines where you can play anywhere between 5 cents and $5 per spin, it might make a difference over the course of 2,000 or 3,000 spins if one person is betting the minimum and one is betting the maximum. For mechanical reel machines, I would specify that max coin-in be wagered every time.

Thanks for all the thoughtful replies.

After a lot of thought, and considering the comments, I've decided to just retire Slot Challenge #1. It's just a pain to try to thwart all the exploits, and no short-term test could really prove much of anything anyway.

So let's focus on Challenge #2, which is to try to disprove any generic "I can win at slots" system that's being sold by hucksters. If you were constructing this challenge from scratch, how would you design it?

(bump)

Agree that challenge 2 is beatable if after an early win you can lower your bet. Even if you stipulate the same machine, if one can switch from 5 coins to 1 coin after an early win the switch will lower the variance and make a small win more likely. As far as challenge 1, I would give yourself either better odds (his 2k versus your 1k), or even odds (your 1lk versus his 1k) with him having to have beaten you by some predetermined amount since it is only fair since he is playing the 'hot' machines. Say for 3000 spins on a dollar machine he has to be up $150 more than you...

Okay, here's where we're at. Again, I've killed the challenge about whether higher-paying machines are located in certain areas of the casino floor, because it's too hard to write a set of rules which both makes the point and at the same time counters all the loopholes for exploits. So I'm focusing only on the challenge about whether anyone has a winning betting system. I've upped the challenge payout to $5000, and revised the rules according to the feedback I've gotten so far. Here's what I've got:

Quote: Bluejay's $5000 slot machine challenge

Game selection. You pick which slot machines to play and how you want to play them, using your own special techniques, at any single casino in Las Vegas or Atlantic City.
Number of spins. The minimum number of spins is 5000 times the ratio of your largest wager to your smallest wager. For example, if you always play $0.75 at a time, then the minimum number if spins is 5000. If you wager between $0.50 and $3.00, then the minimum number of spins is 6 x 5000 = 30,000 spins. You can choose any number of spins above the minimum number, as long as you choose that number before you start playing.
You bank your spins yourself.
Time Limit. Play must be completed within 120 hours (including any time spent machine-scouting or machine-hopping).
Winning. If you have made at least $15 per hour by the end, I will pay you $5000. If you failed then you will pay me $5000.

Thoughts?