Lurking an example of gambler's fallacy?

I was having a discussion with a friend about slot machines and he argued that there was merit in "lurking" (watching someone lose at slots and then jumping in when they leave) since the machine is now "due". I argued that this is analogous to thinking that a coin is "due" to land on head's after landing many times on tails. But he says that's a false analogy since the machine is programmed to pay out at some percentage. But... isn't the coin "programmed" to "pay out" at 50% as well?

Who's right?

Thanks

Dan

You're right.

But since slots are random, it won't hurt your friend to play those he thinks are due as opposed to any others. If he enjoys it more, let him.

You are, with a few minor exception for those "banking" or "investment" slot games which accumulate player state and reward a bonus after a certain number of accumulations. The vast majority of slot machine games are mathematically equivalent to flipping a many-sided coin, each side with a different probability and payout. Each spin is independent, and a machine does not become "due".

Quote: initech

I was having a discussion with a friend about slot machines and he argued that there was merit in "lurking" (watching someone lose at slots and then jumping in when they leave) since the machine is now "due". I argued that this is analogous to thinking that a coin is "due" to land on head's after landing many times on tails. But he says that's a false analogy since the machine is programmed to pay out at some percentage. But... isn't the coin "programmed" to "pay out" at 50% as well?

Who's right?

Thanks

Dan

You're right. The machine is programmed to return each possible outcome a certain percentage of the time. But, like the coin, it doesn't follow any set pattern. Instead, it just randomly returns a result based on the exact instant that you push "spin." The machine doesn't use past results in any way to help determine future spins, so it's never "due."

(exceptions: some games guarantee a progressive before the meter hits $x,xxx, others promise a bonus round once every x minutes or less. If the meter reads $x,xxy, or if it's been almost x minutes since the last bonus, you'd have a solid argument that the machines are due.)

You're right, for the reasons already stated by others.

I think you and your friend are both right.

Quote: initech

But he says that's a false analogy since the machine is programmed to pay out at some percentage.

Not exactly.

If the machine were to hit every one of the millions of different combinations of spin results possible, with a player betting max coin every time, then the machine will have paid out an amount exactly equal to "some percentage" your friend is talking about.

But slot machines don't work that way. Every spin is completely random.

While unlikely, the machine could pay the big jackpot 5 times in a row. That doesn't change the odds of hitting it on the next spin. Similarly, you could have some monkey playing the machine 24/7/365 for a hundred years and never hit the jackpot. That doesn't mean it's any more likely to hit any time soon.

I used to leave a machine after any kind of substantial win, mistakenly believing that it would not pay out again anytime soon. I was cured of this some years ago while waiting for an attendant to deliver a hand pay. Hit another jackpot before she returned. Got paid and the second attendant left to get my second hand pay and before she returned I hit another one!!!! $4800 total in less than 15 minutes on the same machine - $5 single reel. People had gathered around by then. Played it about another 30 minutes with no more big hits but cashed out about another $500. I've hit bigger single jackpots, but never that quickly.

I think there are three issues here:

Is the analogy precisely correct?
Is the analogy sufficiently correct?
Is there any harm to his being wrong whether it be by a mile or not?

I would say that random is random and that two sided coin is not such a great analogy but its close enough.
I would also say that selecting a machine that is three rows north of a good looking girl is just about as valid: it clearly makes no difference but that is the whole idea. It makes no difference. The RNG either smiles favorably upon you or it does not. Choosing a recent hot-streak machine or choosing a recent cold-streak machine has just about the same effect: its a technique he likes to use and is comfortable in using. No need to burst his bubble.

The truth about lurking and slot machines.

In the US, slot machines MUST be truly random by law. Except for considerations of progressives and/or banking, lurking will not help. And it's difficult to analyze the slots to figure out the break even point, becuse you cannot see the virtual reels.

But In Japan, or England, the rules are very much different.

First, Japan.

They have "Pachisuro" or "pachislo" machines. They have skill stop buttons on them. However, they can, and do, slip to cheat the player when they want to. THey also can let the reels slip to help you out if they want.

They have 6 skill settings. A machine set at easy skill can be advantaged played provided you are skilled enough. Machines set at higher skill levels cannot be advantage played in the long run.

HOWEVER...

The game will, once it's taken enough money, decide to stop making the reels slip for a bit. During this time, the reels are true skill, and the player can hit the big bonus. But if the player fails to hit it during these "standby games", then it's added to the "stock" for later collection. Then it goes back to cheating.

However, if a big bonus is hit, the odds of the game re-entering standby games afterwards or leading in the prize outright are vastly increased for a few spins if there is stock remaining. So the player can get a "renchan", or repeat of the big bonus.

Also, there's a maximum number of spins between big bonus. If one hasn't been hit in a long time, the machine must start leading it in, allowing even a poor player to get a bonus. And if the stock is full, the machine is very likely to keep on doing this until the stock empties.

So in Japan, jumping on a machine that just sucked an unskilled player dry is a very good idea if you are skilled.

The other example is british fruit machines. They are so non random it's not funny.

Nearly every slot myth is true for them.

They really do have hot/cold cycles programmed in. They generally save a percentage of every play into a "rave bank" and when th erave bank is fille,d the machine will go win happy.

They are required by law to actively seek their hold percentage in the medium term (but not short term). If you play badly and refuse all wins, they HAVE to force a top prize on you to catch up, and if you are lucky (or know the streak is due) you will clean up fast when this happens.

They are not required to use true odds for simulated dice rolls, or indeed anything else. When the game doesn't want you to win, going low on a 11 or high on a 2 is going to get you a rude surprise as a 1 or 12 magically spins in just because you picked what probability suggests you should. The result is usually different if you play it "wrong" with it spinning up something near a seven. Particularly vicious ones will spin in a 3 or a ten on purpose.

They also can (and do) refuse to spin in wins when there isn't enough money in the machine to pay them. This tends to happen more with the 4 reel club machines, which will block the jackpot when the machine isn't "backing" (having coins drop into the cashbox instead of the tubes).

If you fail to hold two reels, they will spin in what you wanted on the third reel just to tease you and make you think you should have held them. (well unless you are offered holds after nudges, in which case you are supposed to let them spin, and a win will magically roll in. that used to be a big secret, but now everyone knows this one).

To put it simply, they are cheating bastards. But if you play them at the proper time (when the game is about to streak), you can clean up.

Thanks Zaphod77! (Was "Zaphod42 taken? ;-)
AND thanks to everyone else as well.

Quote: Zaphod77

The truth about lurking and slot machines.

In the US, slot machines MUST be truly random by law. Except for considerations of progressives and/or banking, lurking will not help. And it's difficult to analyze the slots to figure out the break even point, becuse you cannot see the virtual reels.

There is no federal US law related to the behavior of slot machine games -- it's a state's issue. In New York, for example, the video terminals at racetracks are not playing random independent spins. They're playing electronic pull-tabs from a virtual set of tickets stored at a central system. Someone just posted about the Alabama bingo case -- those games are also not random independent spins. In the Alabama games, similar to Class II games, at least two players must be in competition for one of the prizes on the paytable, so you need a network and a server to coordinate the ad-hoc "bingo games". You cannot play those games if you're the only one in the casino -- they won't spin the reels until someone else shows up.

The point is that US gaming jurisdictions vary widely on what's allowed and what's not, for various electronic gaming machines and in various settings.

Everywhere a class three slot is allowed in the USA, to the best of my knowledge, it must be truly random, with independent reels.

Class 2 slots are not really slot machine,s they are bingo games in disguise.

Forgive me for saying "slot machine" when I meant "class III gaming device" :)

Quote: Zaphod77

Everywhere a class three slot is allowed in the USA, to the best of my knowledge, it must be truly random, with independent reels.

Class 2 slots are not really slot machine,s they are bingo games in disguise.

Forgive me for saying "slot machine" when I meant "class III gaming device" :)

Sort of -- Class II or III only has to do with the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA). It's convenient to talk about Class III because the IGRA defined it as "everything that's not Class I or II", but it's only useful in that way. There are a lot of different games that qualify as Class II, and not all of them are bingo based, but that's not even the point because the games in New York (for example) aren't on tribal land anyway so the IGRA isn't the controlling law. In New York, the state lottery is the regulatory authority over the operation of machines in racinos. Those are the electronic pull-tab machines, but those aren't Class II. In fact, the categorization of the video pull-tab machines as Class III was a major District Court decision in Cabazon v. NIGA.

Well, if a UK style hi tech fruit machine were legal to operate in the USA, i'm pretty sure they would be operated, as they have an addiction factor much stronger than the US random ones.

Therefore I really do believe that every slot machine that's actually a slot machine, and not a pulltab/bingo internally has to be the way they are in Nevada to be legal.

In Australia, many slot machines have bonuses that can come down randomly or on free games. All machines are 15 -25 lines and there are almost no traditional 1 line slots anywhere. The reason you would lurk is that the minimum and maximum random bonuses increase to a certain point depending on the money put into the group of machines. So, sometimes the maximum will be $100/$500 for the mini and max. So if it was at $44/$300 it isn't as good as a bet compared to the machine that hasn't paid in a while which is at $100/$500. So going on a machine after someone has been playing and losing for a while will result in a better win if you win the bonus. I always go for a machine thats maxed out on bonuses or closed to max out. However, I never play slots with my own money anyway since it is a sucker bet. My dad loves slots and somehow he wins reasonably often... and he is prone to gambler's fallacy. He has won significantly large amounts up to $16 000 though. Because the probabilities are the same, it doesn't really matter when or what he chooses to play. If he feels better playing a particular machine because of an error of reasoning, it doesn't make much of a difference.

It is also relevant that some machines have different rules that will actually result in a better house edge making it worse off for the player and simply not worth playing. Slots is big business in Australia. It is the most popular game since it is available everywhere outside casinos. Australians lose billions each year on slots. Some machines rely on free games, others on random bonuses, and others simply on getting the right combinations. Slots at casinos in Australia are, in my opinion, because of the way they run, completely sucker bets for anyone who tries. Slots in various clubs in suburban areas are far more fair and result in an alright bet for those gambling. Never play slots in a casino in Australia ever. Go to the tables.