Article: Do slot machine paybacks really matter to players?

I was just quoted in a Vegas Inc article titled Do slot machine paybacks really matter to players? The thrust of a study says that return percentage has little correlation on how long a player's money will last. I questioned that notion in the article.

I don't want to copy and paste the whole article, so please click the link of the subject interests you. I welcome all comments.

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Quote: gofaster87

I can tell you that if you take a 10X slot and a Double Diamond slot, both with a payback of 95%(just as an example) you will last much longer on the DD.

It depends what you mean by "last longer." If it means the mean number of spins, I disagree. In that case, it would not make any difference what the volatility was. If you had a 95% game and a bankroll of 40 bets then on average your bankroll would last 40/(1-0.95) = 800 spins.

However, if "last longer" means the median number of spins, then I would agree that the lower volatility game would last longer. I tend to think that in the Tony Lucas simulations mentioned in the article he played until ruin or some winning goal was met, in which case the lower volatility game would also result in more playing time.

Quote: Wizard / article

Although players might say they want more gambling time, they also want to win, said Michael Shackleford, a mathematician and slot machine consultant known locally as the “Wizard of Odds.”

Casinos would probably be uncomfortable with steering players toward conservative games that are unlikely to pay out anything of substance, Shackleford said.

“That’s kind of like rubbing it in the player’s face,” he said. “Imagine a game in which, every time you press a button, it takes away 1 percent of your bet. You could play for a long time, but nobody would play it.”

I agree with the rubbing it in your face / take away 1% thing. Heck, there are plenty of threads here that talk about the edge as if it's an absolute, but also talk about how the win or loss is all the player cares about.

I'm not sure if your first two sentences came off right.

Can't players have more time as well as win? I think players that play a lot, who are looking at a slot more for it's entertainment value than the chance to win, would be happier with smaller wins, if they occurred more often, giving them their goal - that of more playing time / entertainment time.

Quote: article

Manufacturers in recent years have built interactive features into their machines to give players more control over their gambling experience.

One example is a new Bally game called “Hot Spin” that lets players select how often they want to receive a bonus round. Players can select whether they prefer to spin a bonus wheel more frequently for smaller amounts of money or less often for higher jackpots.

I would LOVE to know, of the players that are aware enough to check it out and/or change the setting, what their preference is, and to base it on the type of player they are. I.E. Occasional player / tourist / daily local, etc.


I would love to know if players would understand, and react to, signs stating "Hit frequency: __%".

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I agree with the rubbing it in your face / take away 1% thing.

The way the question was framed to me was, "What are your thoughts of the idea to promote certain machines as being lower volatility, so your money will last longer." That is what brought up my "rubbing it the player's face" comment. It would be like saying to the player, "We're going to take your money either way, but on this particular machine it will just take us longer."

I think players already make subtle selections of what type of rewards they want. That Rockin' Olives machine that keeps dribbling "quarters back into the tray" is a machine that will be less likely to cascade a full jackpot's worth into that tray. The players have a general awareness of this and make their choices in a subtle manner.

Quote: FleaStiff

I think players already make subtle selections of what type of rewards they want. That Rockin' Olives machine that keeps dribbling "quarters back into the tray" is a machine that will be less likely to cascade a full jackpot's worth into that tray. The players have a general awareness of this and make their choices in a subtle manner.

I agree. In my opinion the market has already found a good balance between bankroll longevity and short-term odds of winning something meaningful. There is no need to rethink basic slot machine design.

Quote: Wizard

... "We're going to take your money either way, but on this particular machine it will just take us longer."

I think most players know and understand the firt part, but would love to know the second part.

That's where I was heading with:

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I would love to know if players would understand, and react to, signs stating "Hit frequency: __%".

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I would love to know if players would understand, and react to, signs stating "Hit frequency: __%".

I would say justifiably there is little reaction. Lottery tickets always print a hit frequency on them. You can program two different machines with the exact same hit frequency, and even the same payback percentage, and they can still play very differently in terms of relative excitement.

The slot manufacturer has the freedom to not have any correlation between payouts and probabilities. I doubt very much most of the players realize that. They would be surprised to know that sometimes lower payouts are harder to hit than higher payouts. I also believe that subconsciously most players believe that if a payout is 3 times as high, the probability is 3 times as large.

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Quote: Wizard

I agree. In my opinion the market has already found a good balance between bankroll longevity and short-term odds of winning something meaningful. There is no need to rethink basic slot machine design.

There is, perhaps, a need to rethink basic slot machine marketing. The "market has found a balance" is true but that balance might become upset by increased precision in providing gamblers with information related to a specific machine. Most people know about the "up to" phrase in a sign relating to slot machines. Most people know about the "one machine in the area" versus each and every slot machine in the area of a sign. What happens when each individual machine gets placarded with its payout percentage?

Some Video Poker players have hogged high payout machines to the degree that casinos alter their comp rates and have even removed some high payout machines so that other customers did not get annoyed.

Some slot players are content to look at the pretty olives, have those few "quarters" drop often, get an occasional hand pay and then go to a top notch restaurant. Other players might seek the absolute highest payout and have no other concerns whatsoever. Each of these players have vague ideas of what they are now doing, but what happens when they start seeing large-typeface placards with payout percentages?

On-edit:
>what happens when they start seeing large-typeface placards with payout percentages?
Here there is a continuation of market segments: Someone with enough on the ball to eat at a top notch restaurant rather than the horse trough buffet surely knows what the "fleece rate" is. That player is happy to have fancy graphics, frequent and relatively trivial rewards, occasional hand pays but not much chance of a super jackpot. Whereas the slot player who is ready to fight over pennies may play a different machine yet they still have an idea of their own personal "fleece rate" while at that machine. As more precise information becomes available to the slot players, will they have the exact same fleece rate preferences but now be able to measure them precisely or will they develop a different sense of what "fleece rate" is agreeable to them based on their new found knowledge?