Has Vulturing gone the way of the dodo
Poll
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19 members have voted
Quote: itsmejeffQuote:True persistence games were all the rage in 2021. The accumulation of on-screen equity increased time on device for players who saw in real-time how the more they played, the closer they were coming to triggering bonuses. It didn’t take very long, however, for this novel perk of game play to lose its broad appeal.
Moore wrote: “We found two interesting takeaways: 1) True Persistence games hit below zone average after only five months on the floor. 2) After eight months on the floor, True Persistence games did worse than the average new core video.” (Eilers-Fantini Game Performance Database which tracks almost 400,000 slots internationally).
https://cdcgaming.com/commentary/frank-floor-talk-perceived-persistence-games-dominate-the-slots/
Casino managers have spoken on a number of podcasts about how the problem with APs is not that they win, but that they stop playing. The casino's bottom line is exactly the same whether "Ploppy" Pauline or "AP" Abner clear the board. Pauline will stay and play -EV games to lose it all back over time though. That helps the casino's bottom line.
In the end, the economics of the casino floor will do in the persistent state games. No one will want to play them in bad states. Everyone will want to play them in good states, but there will be no rubes to get them there.
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Casino managers are just not very smart.
The profit is as you point out the same. Therefore who wins and who loses doesn't affect the casinos bottom line.
Take a place that has a 90% return at slots. Player A comes in and loses $1000. He leaves and an hour later player B wins $900. 90% return achieved but what did it matter that one player lost and the other won?
Furthermore their whole aspect that the AP wins and leaves isn't actually even true. In fact most AP's stay all day and play and play and play while poppies play and leave quickly once they have lost
These managers are saying the ploppie who wins will keep playing until they give it back. But it's the AP who actually keeps playing and playing and playing. It's just that they always win (even that's dependant on the type of game. A strong argument could be made that an AP will KEEP playing even after a huge loss if they know their overall advantage is present unlike a ploppie who quits simply because their wallet is shrinking. A good example of this are must hits).
So it really is that the casinos bottom line is not affected one bit. It's that they want everyone to lose period. If they haven't taken your money they feel they aren't doing their job.
????Quote: darkoz
So it really is that the casinos bottom line is not affected one bit.
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If they send the cards to a multi-carder, they can count on the play being cycled once and 90% of the value walking.
Quote: billryanIf a casino sends $50 freeplay to 100 random people, they can count on 90 percent of the people losing the freeplay and more.
If they send the cards to a multi-carder, they can count on the play being cycled once and 90% of the value walking.
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Ok I am confused.
Is this a thread about vulturing or multicarding?
It's funny how people keep accusing me of making every thread about myself, then they go and do it themselves.
Multicarding is definitely something the casinos should be afraid of. In fact they fear me the most on the east Coast.
But back to vulturing. My statement above stands
Quote: darkozMulticarding is definitely something the casinos should be afraid of. In fact they fear me the most on the east Coast.
But back to vulturing. My statement above stands
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Any tips for hard rock ft lauderdale and tampa?
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: darkozMulticarding is definitely something the casinos should be afraid of. In fact they fear me the most on the east Coast.
But back to vulturing. My statement above stands
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Any tips for hard rock ft lauderdale and tampa?
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Not really.
I have relatives who live nearby and begged me to set them up as a subsidiary team.
Then every time there was pickups they were too busy to go
After the third time I said forget it. I took the loss. It wasn't much. I usually start small in a new location and build up.
That was before COVID so it was promising then. Can't speak for now.
LOL. Love this.Quote: itsmejeffMost youtube players are degenerates who cannot go without playing a slot machine long enough to find a +ev state. Most of the "big names" believe in "hot" machines as opposed to, you know, like math. link to original post
Quote: DieterQuote: BTLWISome Upper Midwest casinos not afraid to kick people out for checking now. Wasn't like that before.
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Can you say if that's a permanent trespass, or just a get out of here for a few days kind of kick out?
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That was an out of state casino some locals vulture at so I don't have the full details there.
But new bans went in this weekend at my local casino. I had just pulled into the parking lot and got a call from a guy telling me security walked up to him and his GF with ban letters. On the inside I saw the guy that taught me MHB's in 2016 and was talking to him about it - and security walks up to him and asks for ID and hands him a letter. They can write a letter asking to get back in after 1 year but that doesn't mean anything.
They banned about 20 people but nobody can figure out the reason because they didn't ban about 5 of us. Definitely not win amount. My guy doesn't camp, does 1-2 laps and plays some straight up bad machines with his lady friends. The 15 hour a day guys are all gone. Those guys obviously camp and annoy customers. It's a wide mix of local checkers that have been doing this since pre-covid.
The only thing I can think of is I don't check the machine next to an active player, I'll just walk by. I was full time on a team 2017-2019 and full time solo 2020-2022, highest card level etc...
It's obviously super juicy now but there's a huge risk you will be on the next round of letters and get tapped on the shoulder while you're half-way through a long play.
"Mr. Greene, we the (unnamed) tribe have determined that you are a despicable scoundrel and you should go away."
Quote: NDnathanThis happened to me at the end of last year. Very similar to what you describe - local player, highest card level, no camping, one to two laps, have been doing for ten years. Also got a letter with vague reasoning that said I can write a letter to get back in after one year. Did this happen to be a tribal casino with multiple properties?
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Mgm cracking down on APs but short of kicking them out:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/slots/39522-mgm-and-ap/
Comps and freeplay have been taken away.
This hurts multi-carders but APs not as much
Quote: darkozQuote: itsmejeffQuote:True persistence games were all the rage in 2021. The accumulation of on-screen equity increased time on device for players who saw in real-time how the more they played, the closer they were coming to triggering bonuses. It didn’t take very long, however, for this novel perk of game play to lose its broad appeal.
Moore wrote: “We found two interesting takeaways: 1) True Persistence games hit below zone average after only five months on the floor. 2) After eight months on the floor, True Persistence games did worse than the average new core video.” (Eilers-Fantini Game Performance Database which tracks almost 400,000 slots internationally).
https://cdcgaming.com/commentary/frank-floor-talk-perceived-persistence-games-dominate-the-slots/
Casino managers have spoken on a number of podcasts about how the problem with APs is not that they win, but that they stop playing. The casino's bottom line is exactly the same whether "Ploppy" Pauline or "AP" Abner clear the board. Pauline will stay and play -EV games to lose it all back over time though. That helps the casino's bottom line.
In the end, the economics of the casino floor will do in the persistent state games. No one will want to play them in bad states. Everyone will want to play them in good states, but there will be no rubes to get them there.
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Casino managers are just not very smart.
The profit is as you point out the same. Therefore who wins and who loses doesn't affect the casinos bottom line.
Take a place that has a 90% return at slots. Player A comes in and loses $1000. He leaves and an hour later player B wins $900. 90% return achieved but what did it matter that one player lost and the other won?
Furthermore their whole aspect that the AP wins and leaves isn't actually even true. In fact most AP's stay all day and play and play and play while poppies play and leave quickly once they have lost
These managers are saying the ploppie who wins will keep playing until they give it back. But it's the AP who actually keeps playing and playing and playing. It's just that they always win (even that's dependant on the type of game. A strong argument could be made that an AP will KEEP playing even after a huge loss if they know their overall advantage is present unlike a ploppie who quits simply because their wallet is shrinking. A good example of this are must hits).
So it really is that the casinos bottom line is not affected one bit. It's that they want everyone to lose period. If they haven't taken your money they feel they aren't doing their job.
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A friend of mine likes to argue that casinos lose money from what AP’s do. He clearly failed basic math in school since he doesn’t realize the slot hold is the same regardless. Lots of times AP’s will gamble or take sub marginal plays when they fail to find anything. When they do this they are betting far more than the average customer.
At the end of the day it all evens out and casinos that remove AP machines are just shooting themselves in the foot. These games are popular and would never have “plays” if others didn’t play them.
Gaming revenue is up 10% over the last 12 months.Quote: SlotenthusiastAny casino that removes AP games just because they get played by AP’s is a poorly run casino. The hold is the hold. Most people who get a bonus cash out right away, which is no different than what an AP does. In the last year casinos in Nevada have been removing AP machines left and right. As a result gaming revenue has declined almost 5 percent year over year. link to original post
Long-term trends are:
...(1) Declining number of visitors (peak was 2016)
...(2) A declining % of visitors who actually gamble.
...(3) Probably, smaller bankrolls for those who do actually gamble.
All three are probably influenced by dissatisfaction with tighter games (especially table games) and Vegas now nickel-and-diming for everything.
It's a stretch to tie any revenue decline specifically to the removal of AP-able games (although again, in the short term, gaming revenue is up).
A) The bottom-of-the-barrel vulture/Hustler/scambler who is using their earning to fund their drug habit and -EV gambling and lack any decorum whatsoever.
B) The Chinese gangs who take shifts and camp behind people all day long, all while annoying customers.
C) The Vulture who plays only good numbers banks his profits and conducts himself appropriately while in the casinos looking to move on to future AP endeavors.
D) Well-banked Season Advantage Players who occasionally check machines while picking up free play, using their comps to eat, heading to and from other plays.
We can list some other categories but we can leave it at that for now.
C and D absolutely do cost the casinos money since they take the money from the poppies who can no longer spend the money back in the casino.
I can't imagine the casinos would want A's and Bs in their casinos.
Quote: AxelWolfYou're going to have to stipulate what kind of Advantage Players we are talking about.
A) The bottom-of-the-barrel vulture/Hustler/scambler who is using their earning to fund their drug habit and -EV gambling and lack any decorum whatsoever.
B) The Chinese gangs who take shifts and camp behind people all day long, all while annoying customers.
C) The Vulture who plays only good numbers banks his profits and conducts himself appropriately while in the casinos looking to move on to future AP endeavors.
D) Well-banked Season Advantage Players who occasionally check machines while picking up free play, using their comps to eat, heading to and from other plays.
We can list some other categories but we can leave it at that for now.
C and D absolutely do cost the casinos money since they take the money from the poppies who can no longer spend the money back in the casino.
I can't imagine the casinos would want A's and Bs in their casinos.
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At the end of the day if I run a casino they’re all customers and are welcome to gamble on my machines. My machines don’t discriminate based on any of the above. That said if you’re a tweaker without money you get trespassed.
Quote: MichaelBluejayGaming revenue is up 10% over the last 12 months.Quote: SlotenthusiastAny casino that removes AP games just because they get played by AP’s is a poorly run casino. The hold is the hold. Most people who get a bonus cash out right away, which is no different than what an AP does. In the last year casinos in Nevada have been removing AP machines left and right. As a result gaming revenue has declined almost 5 percent year over year. link to original post
Long-term trends are:
...(1) Declining number of visitors (peak was 2016)
...(2) A declining % of visitors who actually gamble.
...(3) Probably, smaller bankrolls for those who do actually gamble.
All three are probably influenced by dissatisfaction with tighter games (especially table games) and Vegas now nickel-and-diming for everything.
It's a stretch to tie any revenue decline specifically to the removal of AP-able games (although again, in the short term, gaming revenue is up).
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And the people with the data claim that persistent state games are less popular, which means less revenue per unit of floor space.
Growth of gambling outside of Vegas will doom it. The Resorts World VLT parlor in New York reported $758,745,507 of coin in for november 2024. $750 million dollars. that is $25 million per day. Jake's 58 down the road on Lawn Guy Land has over $10 million coin in per day. Again, just VLTs and some electronic tables. 20 miles up a different road in Yonkers, Empire City averages $25 million coin in per day. New York City is putting up some insane numbers. That is nearly $2 billion played per month. It aint Vegas numbers, but it don't have to be. Money spent locally is money not spent in Vegas.
https://gaming.ny.gov/revenue-reports
Let's say you have a small casino(a bar). Now let's say you had 10 non-variable state machines. Let's say you have 10 regulars who have a total of 100k per month to lose, and on average they lose all 100k to the HA.Quote: SlotenthusiastQuote: AxelWolfYou're going to have to stipulate what kind of Advantage Players we are talking about.
A) The bottom-of-the-barrel vulture/Hustler/scambler who is using their earning to fund their drug habit and -EV gambling and lack any decorum whatsoever.
B) The Chinese gangs who take shifts and camp behind people all day long, all while annoying customers.
C) The Vulture who plays only good numbers banks his profits and conducts himself appropriately while in the casinos looking to move on to future AP endeavors.
D) Well-banked Season Advantage Players who occasionally check machines while picking up free play, using their comps to eat, heading to and from other plays.
We can list some other categories but we can leave it at that for now.
C and D absolutely do cost the casinos money since they take the money from the poppies who can no longer spend the money back in the casino.
I can't imagine the casinos would want A's and Bs in their casinos.
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At the end of the day if I run a casino they’re all customers and are welcome to gamble on my machines. My machines don’t discriminate based on any of the above. That said if you’re a tweaker without money you get trespassed.
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Now let's say you change all 10 machines to variable state machines. Let's say 50% of the payback goes to banked pots.
The regulars would pick up each other's banked value pots, the money just changes hands back and forth until eventually, they dump all of it back to you.
Suddenly, 10 class C vultures come in and snap off 50% of the regular's banked value. You would now only be making 50k per month.
I'm 100% certain Vultures cost the casino money.
If it's the class A players, they might give some back, but most of it is going to drugs and living expenses, it certainly isn't going to make up for just having the regulars and no vultures.
Quote: AxelWolfLet's say you have a small casino(a bar). Now let's say you had 10 non-variable state machines. Let's say you have 10 regulars who have a total of 100k per month to lose, and on average they lose all 100k to the HA.Quote: SlotenthusiastQuote: AxelWolfYou're going to have to stipulate what kind of Advantage Players we are talking about.
A) The bottom-of-the-barrel vulture/Hustler/scambler who is using their earning to fund their drug habit and -EV gambling and lack any decorum whatsoever.
B) The Chinese gangs who take shifts and camp behind people all day long, all while annoying customers.
C) The Vulture who plays only good numbers banks his profits and conducts himself appropriately while in the casinos looking to move on to future AP endeavors.
D) Well-banked Season Advantage Players who occasionally check machines while picking up free play, using their comps to eat, heading to and from other plays.
We can list some other categories but we can leave it at that for now.
C and D absolutely do cost the casinos money since they take the money from the poppies who can no longer spend the money back in the casino.
I can't imagine the casinos would want A's and Bs in their casinos.
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At the end of the day if I run a casino they’re all customers and are welcome to gamble on my machines. My machines don’t discriminate based on any of the above. That said if you’re a tweaker without money you get trespassed.
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Now let's say you change all 10 machines to variable state machines. Let's say 50% of the payback goes to banked pots.
The regulars would pick up each other's banked value pots, the money just changes hands back and forth until eventually, they dump all of it back to you.
Suddenly, 10 class C vultures come in and snap off 50% of the regular's banked value. You would now only be making 50k per month.
I'm 100% certain Vultures cost the casino money.
If it's the class A players, they might give some back, but most of it is going to drugs and living expenses, it certainly isn't going to make up for just having the regulars and no vultures.
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Well said! I agree 100% with your premise.
Vultures can take all the money from machines when in a good state. This necessarily means that the casual gamblers will be coming along and playing the machines when they are in a horribly negative state, meaning the RTP will be (temporarily) even worse than what it is by default. Since it's that much more unlikely that the casual will make money, this gives them a negative experience and makes them less likely to come back and gamble again. This has the same effect as lowering the RTP on all the slot machines without actually doing so.
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
First off Axels example is worst case scenario. Almost never happens.
What happens in actuality is that ploppie A comes in and plays not for half a cycle but for dozens, perhaps a hundred cycles.
Take for example something obvious like Scarab. The ploppie sits for 20 minutes, maybe an hour. He finally leaves and abandons the game. The slot vulture comes in just for the finish of that single cycle. The loss to the casino is therefore minimal at best in terms of the ploppie not getting his favorite experience and lasting longer blah blah blah
Come on, rare is the time you have seen ploppies in tandem betting one cycle first to 9th spin and leaving... probably an event you guys have never seen.
Furthermore, almost never are variable state machines even left in the fantasy positive state. Scarabs aren't left on the 9th spin with wilds latent across the screen etc. Even the ploppies know to finish the cycle. At best the vulture is looking for a possible play. One where he's acquired a savings but still is taking a gamble. Like fourth spin, three wilds on screen.
So RTP is definitely the same overall in my opinion. Also, the vulture continues to come back (even if it's only when the machine is in a positive state). Like literally that's the definition of players continuing to play. For every ploppie that leaves the game, the money the casino makes has already been made. The game in a positive state is giving that money back...to whomever is seated there.
So overall I am just not sold the casinos don't continue to make the same money with or without slot vulturing. It's just an illusion that they are losing money IMO.
Quote: darkozI understand the concept that the slot vulturing results in the money leaving the casino when the vultures hit
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
If money is walking out that would have been probably lost elsewhere in the casino, , how does that not affect the bottom line?
Quote: DRichQuote: darkozI understand the concept that the slot vulturing results in the money leaving the casino when the vultures hit
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
If money is walking out that would have been probably lost elsewhere in the casino, , how does that not affect the bottom line?
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The casino has already made the money from the ploppie. That's why the ploppie walked away.
The RTP is per machine, not per person.
A machine with a 90% hold doesn't matter if the first person loses $100 and then the second person wins $90. The casino has profited either way and the exact amount of the RTP.
Quote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: darkozI understand the concept that the slot vulturing results in the money leaving the casino when the vultures hit
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
If money is walking out that would have been probably lost elsewhere in the casino, , how does that not affect the bottom line?
link to original post
The casino has already made the money from the ploppie. That's why the ploppie walked away.
The RTP is per machine, not per person.
A machine with a 90% hold doesn't matter if the first person loses $100 and then the second person wins $90. The casino has profited either way and the exact amount of the RTP.
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You are correct that they make the 10% on a 90% machine but that is based on the amount played. Any money that walks out the door is 10% less they make per spin. Like any business you want as much business as possible because every spin that doesn't happen they lose that 10%. Every dollar to the bottom line counts.
Quote: McSweeneyVultures can cost the casino money. What's the reason why a casino wouldn't just turn the RTP on all slot machines down to the lowest amount legally permissible? Because they have want patrons to have a positive experience and get enough of a taste of winning as to come back for more.
Vultures can take all the money from machines when in a good state. This necessarily means that the casual gamblers will be coming along and playing the machines when they are in a horribly negative state, meaning the RTP will be (temporarily) even worse than what it is by default. Since it's that much more unlikely that the casual will make money, this gives them a negative experience and makes them less likely to come back and gamble again. This has the same effect as lowering the RTP on all the slot machines without actually doing so.
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i've written that a way to counter APs is to set AP'able machines to manufacturer minimum. ie: 85%
APs will still play the #s as if it's set to 90%. so if it's 101%, then setting it to 85% will make the #s they play at 96% and they lose $.
I've personally experienced this in moneyBalls, and going for the Jackpot symbol that has no coins in Lobster 4.
Oh, the reason i know the rtp is that casino gives points based on the theo of the machine. so machines earn points at a different rate.
With enuf data, you can calculate the rtp.
Quote: 100xOddsQuote: McSweeneyVultures can cost the casino money. What's the reason why a casino wouldn't just turn the RTP on all slot machines down to the lowest amount legally permissible? Because they have want patrons to have a positive experience and get enough of a taste of winning as to come back for more.
Vultures can take all the money from machines when in a good state. This necessarily means that the casual gamblers will be coming along and playing the machines when they are in a horribly negative state, meaning the RTP will be (temporarily) even worse than what it is by default. Since it's that much more unlikely that the casual will make money, this gives them a negative experience and makes them less likely to come back and gamble again. This has the same effect as lowering the RTP on all the slot machines without actually doing so.
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i've written that a way to counter APs is to set AP'able machines to manufacturer minimum. ie: 85%
APs will still play the #s as if it's set to 90%. so if it's 101%, then setting it to 85% will make the #s they play at 96% and they lose $.
I've personally experienced this in moneyBalls, and going for the Jackpot symbol that has no coins in Lobster 4
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This wouldn’t work for long after awhile the aps will figure out the machines are set lower and just adjust their entry points. Also this will make the regular players lose at a faster rate and they will notice and either play less or take their business elsewhere.
Quote: HunterhillThis wouldn’t work for long after awhile the aps will figure out the machines are set lower and just adjust their entry points.
Also this will make the regular players lose at a faster rate and they will notice and either play less or take their business elsewhere.
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Not if the APs play at multiple casinos.
they will get the itch to play at the # they're use for entry at the other casino.
i know i do.
As for the ploppies:
The casino will raise rtp of some non-aP slots such that the overall avg rtp % remains the same as before they nerfed the AP machines.
So the ploppies that play lots of different machines will have an overall positive feeling because they'll remember more of the great time they had at the higher rtp machine vs Buffalo Ascension eating their $ quick
Quote: DRichQuote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: darkozI understand the concept that the slot vulturing results in the money leaving the casino when the vultures hit
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
If money is walking out that would have been probably lost elsewhere in the casino, , how does that not affect the bottom line?
link to original post
The casino has already made the money from the ploppie. That's why the ploppie walked away.
The RTP is per machine, not per person.
A machine with a 90% hold doesn't matter if the first person loses $100 and then the second person wins $90. The casino has profited either way and the exact amount of the RTP.
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You are correct that they make the 10% on a 90% machine but that is based on the amount played. Any money that walks out the door is 10% less they make per spin. Like any business you want as much business as possible because every spin that doesn't happen they lose that 10%. Every dollar to the bottom line counts.
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But it's large numbers.
It's not like the money walking out the door hurts their bottom line because there are literally millions of players putting their money in. The transfer of wealth to AP's is immaterial imo. The machines achieve their hold and the sheer number of continuous players guarantees them the same profit
One method to determine this would be to separate the AP slots from the non-Ap slots and see if one type of machine makes more or less profit for the casino with both being the same RTP and both having the same "fun" experience (I e. People are playing the same amount of time etc).
You will find over time the two types of machine makes the same profit
And you're using an extreme example of one person playing Scarab and walking away. What about all the other games where an accumulation of people add to a much longer cycled game? And now you have all kinds of vultures just sitting there waiting to pick off the value.Quote: darkozI understand the concept that the slot vulturing results in the money leaving the casino when the vultures hit
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
First off Axels example is worst case scenario. Almost never happens.
What happens in actuality is that ploppie A comes in and plays not for half a cycle but for dozens, perhaps a hundred cycles.
Take for example something obvious like Scarab. The ploppie sits for 20 minutes, maybe an hour. He finally leaves and abandons the game. The slot vulture comes in just for the finish of that single cycle. The loss to the casino is therefore minimal at best in terms of the ploppie not getting his favorite experience and lasting longer blah blah blah
Come on, rare is the time you have seen ploppies in tandem betting one cycle first to 9th spin and leaving... probably an event you guys have never seen.
Furthermore, almost never are variable state machines even left in the fantasy positive state. Scarabs aren't left on the 9th spin with wilds latent across the screen etc. Even the ploppies know to finish the cycle. At best the vulture is looking for a possible play. One where he's acquired a savings but still is taking a gamble. Like fourth spin, three wilds on screen.
So RTP is definitely the same overall in my opinion. Also, the vulture continues to come back (even if it's only when the machine is in a positive state). Like literally that's the definition of players continuing to play. For every ploppie that leaves the game, the money the casino makes has already been made. The game in a positive state is giving that money back...to whomever is seated there.
So overall I am just not sold the casinos don't continue to make the same money with or without slot vulturing. It's just an illusion that they are losing money IMO.
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My extreme example is to show what's happening on a much larger scale. Who knows what the exact numbers are, but if you believe vultures are making money, then it has to affect the casinos bottom line.
The discussion at hand is if the CASINO(Not a particular machine) makes the same profits regardless if there are vultures or not.Quote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: darkozI understand the concept that the slot vulturing results in the money leaving the casino when the vultures hit
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
If money is walking out that would have been probably lost elsewhere in the casino, , how does that not affect the bottom line?
link to original post
The casino has already made the money from the ploppie. That's why the ploppie walked away.
The RTP is per machine, not per person.
A machine with a 90% hold doesn't matter if the first person loses $100 and then the second person wins $90. The casino has profited either way and the exact amount of the RTP.
link to original post
You are correct that they make the 10% on a 90% machine but that is based on the amount played. Any money that walks out the door is 10% less they make per spin. Like any business you want as much business as possible because every spin that doesn't happen they lose that 10%. Every dollar to the bottom line counts.
link to original post
But it's large numbers.
It's not like the money walking out the door hurts their bottom line because there are literally millions of players putting their money in. The transfer of wealth to AP's is immaterial imo. The machines achieve their hold and the sheer number of continuous players guarantees them the same profit
One method to determine this would be to separate the AP slots from the non-Ap slots and see if one type of machine makes more or less profit for the casino with both being the same RTP and both having the same "fun" experience (I e. People are playing the same amount of time etc).
You will find over time the two types of machine makes the same profit
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I actually think we could set up an experiment somehow. We take two identical casinos with the same amount of customers, one with vultures, and one without. We could see which one makes more profit over X period of time. I guarantee you it's the one without. I don't even think it would be close and I think you would notice it fairly quickly.
Quote: darkoz
What happens in actuality is that ploppie A comes in and plays not for half a cycle but for dozens, perhaps a hundred cycles.
Take for example something obvious like Scarab. The ploppie sits for 20 minutes, maybe an hour. He finally leaves and abandons the game. The slot vulture comes in just for the finish of that single cycle. The loss to the casino is therefore minimal at best in terms of the ploppie not getting his favorite experience and lasting longer blah blah blah
Come on, rare is the time you have seen ploppies in tandem betting one cycle first to 9th spin and leaving... probably an event you guys have never seen.
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Scarab isn't the best example. Because you're right: a ploppie playing Scarab for 20 minutes isn't going to notice that much that he started playing on game 0 with no wilds.
But what about a longer form game like Rich Little Piggies? He sits down and plays for 20 minutes when all 3 pigs are at reset. Starting at reset vs starting at 24 blue games makes a huge difference to his playing experience.
Quote: McSweeneyVultures can cost the casino money. What's the reason why a casino wouldn't just turn the RTP on all slot machines down to the lowest amount legally permissible? Because they have want patrons to have a positive experience and get enough of a taste of winning as to come back for more.
Vultures can take all the money from machines when in a good state. This necessarily means that the casual gamblers will be coming along and playing the machines when they are in a horribly negative state, meaning the RTP will be (temporarily) even worse than what it is by default. Since it's that much more unlikely that the casual will make money, this gives them a negative experience and makes them less likely to come back and gamble again. This has the same effect as lowering the RTP on all the slot machines without actually doing so.
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I just lost running a marginal must hit by that didn’t go my way. How does this affect the casino in any way?
Quote: AxelWolfHere's another example to think about. What about a big number must-hit-by?
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Ok let's examine that.
Again there isn't going to be a fantasy number left behind. Like a ploppie plays a cash bull $16,000 must hit and leaves the machine at $15,999.
In reality the ploppies work the machine up to where it's just barely feasible to make a profit but only based on turn of luck. It's high enough to over multiple runs to turn a profit but there will be times when the AP loses more than he wins
In fact the Advantage Players make the single seat competition so fierce that many AP's will be forced to take the machines at lower than optimal amounts
The AP playing large must hits is basically just a slight advantage over a normal ploppie.
However he most likely is better bankrolled and BECAUSE he knows there is an advantage will continue playing beyond what any ploppie would find comfortable. An AP will most likely KEEP playing even after losing more than the must hit will make him whole because he has a certain feeling about giving the machine to the next AP hungrily waiting on the sidelines.
How is this situation a bad overall for the casino?
EDIT: Besides the other aspect is that even a ploppie who wins that must hit is probably going to suddenly rise up and leave the casino satisfied he won so big.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkozI understand the concept that the slot vulturing results in the money leaving the casino when the vultures hit
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
If money is walking out that would have been probably lost elsewhere in the casino, , how does that not affect the bottom line?
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How do you know the money won by a ploppie would be lost elsewhere in the casino? If you think a casino cares about if that $90 win gets recycled you’re delusional. Maybe a 50k hit would raise eye brows and the casino would want to get that money back. Otherwise it doesn’t matter to the casino. I’m convinced you guys are trolling at this point.
But you hit it? How much did you lose? What are you going to do with the money you hit for? Do you lose all your AP winning back to the casino? IE a losing Vulture/AP? I assumed you were a winning and saving type of AP.Quote: SlotenthusiastQuote: McSweeneyVultures can cost the casino money. What's the reason why a casino wouldn't just turn the RTP on all slot machines down to the lowest amount legally permissible? Because they have want patrons to have a positive experience and get enough of a taste of winning as to come back for more.
Vultures can take all the money from machines when in a good state. This necessarily means that the casual gamblers will be coming along and playing the machines when they are in a horribly negative state, meaning the RTP will be (temporarily) even worse than what it is by default. Since it's that much more unlikely that the casual will make money, this gives them a negative experience and makes them less likely to come back and gamble again. This has the same effect as lowering the RTP on all the slot machines without actually doing so.
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I just lost running a marginal must hit by that didn’t go my way. How does this affect the casino in any way?
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Slot players loses x per year. They say around 50% of slot players have a gambling problem. They are very likely to play longer and give a lot or all back, and A certain percentage of non-problem gamblers are going to give some or all back.Quote: SlotenthusiastQuote: DRichQuote: darkozI understand the concept that the slot vulturing results in the money leaving the casino when the vultures hit
I just don't think it changes their bottom line.
If money is walking out that would have been probably lost elsewhere in the casino, , how does that not affect the bottom line?
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How do you know the money won by a ploppie would be lost elsewhere in the casino? If you think a casino cares about if that $90 win gets recycled you’re delusional. Maybe a 50k hit would raise eye brows and the casino would want to get that money back. Otherwise it doesn’t matter to the casino. I’m convinced you guys are trolling at this point.
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If you play because you get the itch then you aren’t really a disciplined AP.Quote: 100xOddsQuote: HunterhillThis wouldn’t work for long after awhile the aps will figure out the machines are set lower and just adjust their entry points.
Also this will make the regular players lose at a faster rate and they will notice and either play less or take their business elsewhere.
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Not if the APs play at multiple casinos.
they will get the itch to play at the # they're use for entry at the other casino.
i know i do.
As for the ploppies:
The casino will raise rtp of some non-aP slots such that the overall avg rtp % remains the same as before they nerfed the AP machines.
So the ploppies that play lots of different machines will have an overall positive feeling because they'll remember more of the great time they had at the higher rtp machine vs Buffalo Ascension eating their $ quick
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Quote: NDnathanThis happened to me at the end of last year. Very similar to what you describe - local player, highest card level, no camping, one to two laps, have been doing for ten years. Also got a letter with vague reasoning that said I can write a letter to get back in after one year. Did this happen to be a tribal casino with multiple properties?
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Tribal with 2 locations - one with 3000+ slots and one with 500. My buddy called me and said he went to a casino in the next closest state and he saw roughly 10 of the banned players within a few hours. And there's 3 locations in that state that are roughly the same drive time and so many ended up at the same spot this weekend, kind of funny.
Quote: darkoz
But it's large numbers.
It's not like the money walking out the door hurts their bottom line because there are literally millions of players putting their money in. The transfer of wealth to AP's is immaterial imo. The machines achieve their hold and the sheer number of continuous players guarantees them the same profit
What you are missing is that every dollar counts. If $1 walks out the door that would have been played back by someone else, that affects the bottom line. I assume your point is that small amounts are insignificant, but you said it does not affect the bottom line and clearly it does.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
But it's large numbers.
It's not like the money walking out the door hurts their bottom line because there are literally millions of players putting their money in. The transfer of wealth to AP's is immaterial imo. The machines achieve their hold and the sheer number of continuous players guarantees them the same profit
What you are missing is that every dollar counts. If $1 walks out the door that would have been played back by someone else, that affects the bottom line. I assume your point is that small amounts are insignificant, but you said it does not affect the bottom line and clearly it does.
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I find the psychology of this debate interesting. Like the two dice question or Monty Hall problem.
Seems clear to me that under most reasonable assumptions, vultures do not impact the RTP but do impact (by lowering) the hold.
The hold of course is what the casino cares about.
Quote: unJonQuote: DRichQuote: darkoz
But it's large numbers.
It's not like the money walking out the door hurts their bottom line because there are literally millions of players putting their money in. The transfer of wealth to AP's is immaterial imo. The machines achieve their hold and the sheer number of continuous players guarantees them the same profit
What you are missing is that every dollar counts. If $1 walks out the door that would have been played back by someone else, that affects the bottom line. I assume your point is that small amounts are insignificant, but you said it does not affect the bottom line and clearly it does.
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I find the psychology of this debate interesting. Like the two dice question or Monty Hall problem.
Seems clear to me that under most reasonable assumptions, vultures do not impact the RTP but do impact (by lowering) the hold.
The hold of course is what the casino cares about.
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The proof is that the big boys both Caesar’s and MGM keep adding AP games. The only casinos that care are smaller joints or Native American run that operate a single casino. Both smaller casinos and NA casinos are usually run by management that is way less experienced than those in Vegas. Vegas execs have MBA’s and know as long as their seats are filled it makes no difference who is playing the machine. They tightened up comps a bit but left the machines alone.
Quote: SlotenthusiastQuote: unJonQuote: DRichQuote: darkoz
But it's large numbers.
It's not like the money walking out the door hurts their bottom line because there are literally millions of players putting their money in. The transfer of wealth to AP's is immaterial imo. The machines achieve their hold and the sheer number of continuous players guarantees them the same profit
What you are missing is that every dollar counts. If $1 walks out the door that would have been played back by someone else, that affects the bottom line. I assume your point is that small amounts are insignificant, but you said it does not affect the bottom line and clearly it does.
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I find the psychology of this debate interesting. Like the two dice question or Monty Hall problem.
Seems clear to me that under most reasonable assumptions, vultures do not impact the RTP but do impact (by lowering) the hold.
The hold of course is what the casino cares about.
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The proof is that the big boys both Caesar’s and MGM keep adding AP games. The only casinos that care are smaller joints or Native American run that operate a single casino. Both smaller casinos and NA casinos are usually run by management that is way less experienced than those in Vegas. Vegas execs have MBA’s and know as long as their seats are filled it makes no difference who is playing the machine. They tightened up comps a bit but left the machines alone.
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That’s not proof of what you think it is. Call that proof that adding an AP game increases the hold. There are two impacts, increased hold because ploppies like to play AP games more minus decreased hold from successful vultures.
That this nets to positive increased hold for casino, making it rational to add more AP games, is fine. Doesn’t impact that the casino hold would increase even more if the vultures disappeared.
If a person walks around a carousel and clears the +ev states before leaving, then the casino is not getting any play on those winnings. That means they are not taking 10% of it. This reduces gross revenue and profit.
The add on effect is resetting games to bad state. The 89 free games double-sized and on fire must hit by 95 free games draws people in. They do not know the rate of game adds. They just see the flame and rush into to it like a moth to a closet of musty old clothing. If some creep clears the must hit by awards, then people less inclined to play and chase.
And there are comp issues. Comps are a loss rebate to keep people playing despite losing their shirts. It is not in the interest of the casino to give players a free logo t-shirt when they have not lost it yet.
The entire point of the casino is to get people who are not into math to empty their wallets and checking accounts into games that are due for a gigantic win. It aint to allow weirdos who do not mind the smell of cigarette smoke to grind out 100.08% RTP for 39 hours at a time.
Quote: BTLWIQuote: DieterQuote: BTLWISome Upper Midwest casinos not afraid to kick people out for checking now. Wasn't like that before.
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Can you say if that's a permanent trespass, or just a get out of here for a few days kind of kick out?
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That was an out of state casino some locals vulture at so I don't have the full details there.
But new bans went in this weekend at my local casino. I had just pulled into the parking lot and got a call from a guy telling me security walked up to him and his GF with ban letters. On the inside I saw the guy that taught me MHB's in 2016 and was talking to him about it - and security walks up to him and asks for ID and hands him a letter. They can write a letter asking to get back in after 1 year but that doesn't mean anything.
They banned about 20 people but nobody can figure out the reason because they didn't ban about 5 of us. Definitely not win amount. My guy doesn't camp, does 1-2 laps and plays some straight up bad machines with his lady friends. The 15 hour a day guys are all gone. Those guys obviously camp and annoy customers. It's a wide mix of local checkers that have been doing this since pre-covid.
The only thing I can think of is I don't check the machine next to an active player, I'll just walk by. I was full time on a team 2017-2019 and full time solo 2020-2022, highest card level etc...
It's obviously super juicy now but there's a huge risk you will be on the next round of letters and get tapped on the shoulder while you're half-way through a long play.
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J
Speaking of getting tapped on the shoulder, a Blackjack Player who had won BIG money said he felt a tap on his shoulder and was HAPPY at first, thinking it was his FRIEND he had come in with about to congratulate him for winning BIG money. He turned around expecting to see his Friend and get congratulated, and his happiness quickly turned to annoyance when it was a Casino Staff Member backing him off for winning too much money. ☢️ He got his chips, cashed out, and left.
The player gets, let's say, 2.2 million. Taxes are paid so immediately the winning player could never "lose back" what he won (assuming a low level patron won the progressive).
And most likely that player isn't going to play back 2.2 million anyway. He more like to buy a house, take a vacay, etc
So in everyone's opinion, even with the progressive slot taking in it's predictive profits before the progressive popped, the casino has LOST $2.2 million dollars because the money wasn't played back?
Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
But it's large numbers.
It's not like the money walking out the door hurts their bottom line because there are literally millions of players putting their money in. The transfer of wealth to AP's is immaterial imo. The machines achieve their hold and the sheer number of continuous players guarantees them the same profit
What you are missing is that every dollar counts. If $1 walks out the door that would have been played back by someone else, that affects the bottom line. I assume your point is that small amounts are insignificant, but you said it does not affect the bottom line and clearly it does.
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What you are missing is that the cost to identity AP machines and players and replace them with different machines costs significantly more money than letting things remain as is.
Quote: unJon
I find the psychology of this debate interesting. Like the two dice question or Monty Hall problem.
Seems clear to me that under most reasonable assumptions, vultures do not impact the RTP but do impact (by lowering) the hold.
The hold of course is what the casino cares about.
You are 100% correct.
