Double-up Feature
TIA.
i thought about the same no house edge for double up.Quote: Roberto21If a slot machine double-up feature has a 100% RTP, is it theoretically smarter to try to double up every pay on a (-ev) slot machine than ‘take win’ on every pay? Would you turn-over more money (i.e. ‘get more play’) with the same initial bankroll using the double-up feature for every pay? Or would the (average) turn-over be the same, but you’re bankroll would last longer simply because the double-up feature slows down the rate of play?
TIA.
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just keep doubling up till the next win is a handpay,
but you dont earn points for double up.
plus noone else is doing it so there must be a reason
Probably not, because slots are generally made to be more entertaining that just a coin toss.
That's why people don't do it - it doesn't have the same entertainment value.
Quote: MukkeIf a slot purely consisted of "coin toss" double up, would you play it?
Probably not, because slots are generally made to be more entertaining that just a coin toss.
That's why people don't do it - it doesn't have the same entertainment value.
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Take this excerpt from Bob Dancer on GWAE @37:52 (link: /Stv3w9nM3wk ):
“The double up feature is an even money bet; that is, returning 100%. There are some reasons to consider it: If you’re playing a game where the house has the edge, it allows you to play longer with the same expected loss. An 800 hands p/h player is reduced to maybe 500 hands when using double-up. If he started with a 98% game and doubled up half the time at 100%, this means you’re now playing a 98.5% game, and fewer hands than you had before..”.
Couldn’t you also apply Bob’s logic to any payback percentage on a slot machine? I.e. doubling up half the time on a slot machine with a payback percentage (RTP) of 92% will increase your RTP 0.5% to 92.5%?
If you are getting a higher return (RTP), how is your expected loss the same? Wouldn’t it be less?
Am I right in thinking the double-up feature will give you the same expected loss over time; but it will increase short-term variance? And a ‘triple-up’ or ‘quadruple-up’ option with 100% RTP, will also result in the same expected loss over time (as never using these features), and it will also increase short-term variance?
So does the double-up/triple-up/quadruple-up feature really increase RTP? And does it make any difference (to your overall RTP) if you double up every time, as opposed to only half the time?
2) This is how we go down the craps and odds rabbit hole... The Sum of your EV is the EV of every single bet.
He is not playing a 98.5% game. What is happening is he's playing 2 games... a 98% game, and a 100% game. Bob is saying if he plays the 100% game often enough then "essentially" it's like playing a 98.5% game, but let us be very, very clear. He's playing a 98% game and his -EV from that will be 2% times his coin in. End of story.
If you make a $10 pass line bet (1.41% HE) then you've lost 14.1 cents in -EV. If you lay $10,000,000 on an even money odds bet, you haven't changed your -EV at all. The argument is again "averaging" two completely different games together for arguments sake, but the EV is still calculated the same.. the summation of all bets and their respective EV's:
EV(Pass Line + Odds) = EV(Pass Line) + EV(Odds) = 10(-.0141) + X(0)... where X is the amount you bet and 0 is the house edge which is why it gets canceled out and you're left with your original -EV...
Thus, EV(Pass Line + Odds) = EV(Pass Line).
People make arguments about "composite" house edges, which never made much sense to me... EV is king.
Quote: Roberto21If a slot machine double-up feature has a 100% RTP, is it theoretically smarter to try to double up every pay on a (-ev) slot machine than ‘take win’ on every pay? Would you turn-over more money (i.e. ‘get more play’) with the same initial bankroll using the double-up feature for every pay? Or would the (average) turn-over be the same, but you’re bankroll would last longer simply because the double-up feature slows down the rate of play?
TIA.
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Do you value a $100 bill more than you value two $50 bills?
Quote: DieterQuote: Roberto21If a slot machine double-up feature has a 100% RTP, is it theoretically smarter to try to double up every pay on a (-ev) slot machine than ‘take win’ on every pay? Would you turn-over more money (i.e. ‘get more play’) with the same initial bankroll using the double-up feature for every pay? Or would the (average) turn-over be the same, but you’re bankroll would last longer simply because the double-up feature slows down the rate of play?
TIA.
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Do you value a $100 bill more than you value two $50 bills?
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No. But I do value a $100 bill slightly more than two $49.99 bills.
However, I would argue that for a non-Advantage player, or even an advantage player who is adequately bankrolled, using this feature could be worthwhile for a) Helping them reach a specific win target (in the case of the recreational player) or b) Helping bankroll an advantage play in the event that their variance runs good. On that note, a player who is also inadequately bankrolled for an advantage play/MHB may benefit from the use of this feature.
I was going to post the other day about the Penney Ante Game: Counterintuitive probabilities.. but I don’t think there’s any mathematical advantage that can be gained from that approach. The theory goes that in a coin-tossing game, a certain sequence of heads or tails is more likely to show up first. And the ‘expected waiting time’ can vary significantly between different sequences, eg. HHHHH vs HTHHT. But again, I don’t think this is a strategy that can be applied to roulette or the double-up feature. If it can, please do correct me on this!
Overall, I think the double-up feature is a good idea for the player who wants to win X amount, but a bad idea for the player who wants to play only for entertainment.
Quote: Roberto21However, I would argue that for a non-Advantage player, or even an advantage player who is adequately bankrolled, using this feature could be worthwhile for a) Helping them reach a specific win target (in the case of the recreational player) or b) Helping bankroll an advantage play in the event that their variance runs good. On that note, a player who is also inadequately bankrolled for an advantage play/MHB may benefit from the use of this feature.
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Perhaps you are onto something too cunning for my comprehension.
In case you are not, it is a straight gamble - double or nothing with your winnings at fair odds.
Best of luck in your endeavours.
If a player has a $300 bankroll and their goal is to win $3000 on a slot machine betting $3 per spin, they would be more likely to do so using the double-up feature than playing it normally, as $3000 wins are rare on a $3 bet. I would even hazard a guess that the expected cost of doubling a $100 win 5 times into $3200 would be less than the expected cost of winning that much from normal game play.
Both are negative EV plays, but clearly one is smarter than the other.
Quote: Roberto21I asked Michael Bluejay about this and he agreed.
If a player has a $300 bankroll and their goal is to win $3000 on a slot machine betting $3 per spin, they would be more likely to do so using the double-up feature than playing it normally, as $3000 wins are rare on a $3 bet. I would even hazard a guess that the expected cost of doubling a $100 win 5 times into $3200 would be less than the expected cost of winning that much from normal game play.
Both are negative EV plays, but clearly one is smarter than the other.
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Michael Bluejay is an author with little to no gambling expertise. You might as well ask Joe Rogan or Larry David.
So I would politely disagree that Michael is on the same level as those other comics you mentioned, but I appreciate you were being facetious and hyperbolic to make a point, and not serious.
