Hello from a new poster, seeking a bit of advice

Hi everyone. New poster. Would like to ask for some general advice.

I went to Vegas a few times a year before the pandemic. I'll go back sometime this summer, not sure when. I go for good restaurants, shows, fun with friends and to play some poker. I've stayed nearly everywhere on the strip but I usually stay at Aria or Bellagio because those are nice properties and I like their poker rooms. I sometimes stay in NYNY or Park if it's an expensive time like New Years and I can't find a decent deal. I usually made MLife gold or platinum on non-gaming spend and a little gaming here and there. You don't get tier credit for poker.

I generally do well at poker but at other games I'm what you folks would call a ploppy. I'm fine with that. I don't have the time or desire to become an AP. There are a few -EV games that I play occasionally just to have fun with friends. Craps usually. And a few slots like Deal or no Deal, because I enjoy playing the deal or no deal part of it. I do understand the math and the concepts involved in gambling.

I'd like to ask for advice on a few things, or can you point me in the right direction. I am not asking for super valuable information, your best plays and things you've figure out that nobody else has. I understand the need to protect that information and I have nothing valuable to offer in return. I understand a lot of people here play for income and devote a lot of effort to figuring these things out. I am reading the forum and am starting to learn about a few other sites with info. But am just asking for some knowledge from the community. I'm looking to maximize tier credits compared to losses on otherwise -EV games and sometimes sit down to games with at least a puncher's chance of winning something. So:

What are the best slots at MLife LV strip properties in terms of % return? Or where I can recognize a +EV condition? Again, not asking for secrets or your most valuable plays. For example are Ocean Magic, Harley and Buffalo still out there and when are the various Buffalo variants playable due to accumulated bonus round spins?

What are some slots with must-hits where they are +EV above a certain level and what is that level?

Would be thankful to be pointed in the right direction.

Thanks everyone.

Welcome to the forum. I’m like you. I enjoy finding a + EV opportunity, but mostly enjoy -EV games. I play Pai Gow poker, tiles, and Asia Poker. My wife likes the nice hotels, nice restaurants, shows. What I win or lose gambling pales in comparison to what I’ll spend.

Someone here will be able to point you in the direction of close to break even video poker if you have the desire to learn the strategy necessary. As far as the other + EV slot opportunities, you mentioned some yourself, but most when found are kept hush here.

For video poker the site www.vpfree2.com shows the best available at each casino.

Quote: knucklehead

What are the best slots at MLife LV strip properties in terms of % return? Or where I can recognize a +EV condition? Again, not asking for secrets or your most valuable plays. For example are Ocean Magic, Harley and Buffalo still out there and when are the various Buffalo variants playable due to accumulated bonus round spins?

What are some slots with must-hits where they are +EV above a certain level and what is that level?

Two ways I can think of for how you can do this.
1) estimate probabilities and payouts, then do your best to calculate whether the ev is positive or negative. This might be too much to bother with for a few trips per year.

Stuff like Ocean's Magic can be pretty easy to understand, but might only be able to bet a few dollars per day, especially if you also care about the vacation type stuff. Get lucky and may win enough to buy a round of drinks, but probably not going to get much tier credits from them.

The 'must hits' can get a lot of action if you find a good one and earn a lot of tier credits. I am conservative with these, so rarely find something I am willing to play. People who use a more aggressive approach can really rack up tier credits. Lots of stuff online about these that can help you come up with your own ideas about when to play.

2) take the work other people have already done and use that. While this can be fairly limited, it should allow for more than enough betting for just a few trips. To me, these are most obvious ones:
-highest paying video poker. A lot easier off strip; to find profitable games on the strip means taking advantage of points and comps, which may not be possible with infrequent visits. But even playing against a house edge with an expected loss, it is usually one of the best or the best way to maximize tier credits compared to losses. vpfree was already mentions. Can do some online research to find out what is the very best thing at MGM.
-hi-lo count at blackjack. Lots books and online information on how to do this.

Quote: TomG

Two ways I can think of for how you can do this.
1) estimate probabilities and payouts, then do your best to calculate whether the ev is positive or negative. This might be too much to bother with for a few trips per year.

Stuff like Ocean's Magic can be pretty easy to understand, but might only be able to bet a few dollars per day, especially if you also care about the vacation type stuff. Get lucky and may win enough to buy a round of drinks, but probably not going to get much tier credits from them.

The 'must hits' can get a lot of action if you find a good one and earn a lot of tier credits. I am conservative with these, so rarely find something I am willing to play. People who use a more aggressive approach can really rack up tier credits. Lots of stuff online about these that can help you come up with your own ideas about when to play.

2) take the work other people have already done and use that. While this can be fairly limited, it should allow for more than enough betting for just a few trips. To me, these are most obvious ones:
-highest paying video poker. A lot easier off strip; to find profitable games on the strip means taking advantage of points and comps, which may not be possible with infrequent visits. But even playing against a house edge with an expected loss, it is usually one of the best or the best way to maximize tier credits compared to losses. vpfree was already mentions. Can do some online research to find out what is the very best thing at MGM.
-hi-lo count at blackjack. Lots books and online information on how to do this.

Thanks Tom I really appreciate your perspective.

For me this would be something I'd do between poker sessions or after dinner, something like that. I'd take a run through the casino, see what I see, and play if I find anything playable. If I find something playable like a +EV must-hit I'm willing to put in the time and bankroll to see it through, but I'm not going to Vegas to spend my time vulturing.

I have taken the advice of others and am looking at the video poker resources on the internet. Very informative, thanks.

If I count cards at blackjack am I not risking being 86ed? I do not want to be 86ed from MGM or Caesars properties especially.

And in all honesty even if I find +EV plays and play them I am still going to go play Deal or no Deal Join n Play which I love even though there's no way to make it +EV as far as I can tell, unless the Howie jackpot gets high enough. I just love playing that game.

Quote: knucklehead

Thanks Tom I really appreciate your perspective.

For me this would be something I'd do between poker sessions or after dinner, something like that. I'd take a run through the casino, see what I see, and play if I find anything playable. If I find something playable like a +EV must-hit I'm willing to put in the time and bankroll to see it through, but I'm not going to Vegas to spend my time vulturing.

I have taken the advice of others and am looking at the video poker resources on the internet. Very informative, thanks.

If I count cards at blackjack am I not risking being 86ed? I do not want to be 86ed from MGM or Caesars properties especially.

And in all honesty even if I find +EV plays and play them I am still going to go play Deal or no Deal Join n Play which I love even though there's no way to make it +EV as far as I can tell, unless the Howie jackpot gets high enough. I just love playing that game.

I'm not sure where you are finding Deal or No Deal Join N' Play anymore, at one time there were lots of them, but I haven't seen any in a long time, to be fair, I haven't really been looking. The jackpot cycle on 5 Howies isn't a very long cycle, less than 5k spins iirc. The machines hold about 14%.

The progressive meter movement is based on players giving up value(cashing out while leaving cases behind between bonus rounds, IIRC). The progressive gets up frequently and becomes +EV more than you might think, only max bet can take it down. Don't ask me what those numbers are because there are different settings and they make changes all the time(I swear they changed a bunch of them some months after I started hitting them hard) and, as I said, it's been years since I have played them. You would have to investigate the ones you are playing to get an idea of what numbers to look for.

Also, If you happen to see someone leaving the machine with enough banked cases, you would want to offer them cash for the credits on the machine before they cash out and the value goes into the banked progressive.

Quote: AxelWolf

I'm not sure where you are finding Deal or No Deal Join N' Play anymore, at one time there were lots of them, but I haven't seen any in a long time, to be fair, I haven't really been looking. The jackpot cycle on 5 Howies isn't a very long cycle, less than 5k spins iirc. The machines hold about 14%.

The progressive meter movement is based on players giving up value(cashing out while leaving cases behind between bonus rounds, IIRC). The progressive gets up frequently and becomes +EV more than you might think, only max bet can take it down. Don't ask me what those numbers are because there are different settings and they make changes all the time(I swear they changed a bunch of them some months after I started hitting them hard) and, as I said, it's been years since I have played them. You would have to investigate the ones you are playing to get an idea of what numbers to look for.

Also, If you happen to see someone leaving the machine with enough banked cases, you would want to offer them cash for the credits on the machine before they cash out and the value goes into the banked progressive.

Thanks AxelWolf, and can I just say I highly approve of your Steely Dan signature. When they played Vegas (Venetian) a couple of years ago I planned a long weekend around it and saw them 3 times, once in the front row. That ended up being Walter Becker's last show. 😭

Anyway, as I haven't been to Vegas since the pandemic, I don't know where I can still find a join n play deal or no deal machine. I used to play the ones at Aria, Park MGM and NYNY. I know the one at Park is gone. My internet research tells me MGM Grand and Excalibur still have it, not sure about Aria or NYNY. If anyone knows where one is, especially at an MGM property, I'd love to know about it. I will go there just to play that machine.

I don't know why they'd remove this machine, it's always been popular as far as I can tell.

Quote: knucklehead

If I count cards at blackjack am I not risking being 86ed? I do not want to be 86ed from MGM or Caesars properties especially.

No one could ever be 86'd or backed off for the thoughts inside their head. Which is all the "counting" part is. It could happen from making large bet spreads for more than a short time. Keep the spread small and you can still have an advantage and earn tier credits.

Quote: TomG

No one could ever be 86'd or backed off for the thoughts inside their head. Which is all the "counting" part is. It could happen from making large bet spreads for more than a short time. Keep the spread small and you can still have an advantage and earn tier credits.

Thanks, but I probably won't attempt this as I find the risk/reward profile incompatible with my goals. I do appreciate you mentioning it though.

Out of curiosity, what bet spread is small enough to have an advantage yet not arouse suspicion?