Must Hit Slot Questions
If the games are random, how does the machine pay out when the must pay amount is reached? For example, suppose a must pay jackpot is $500 and it has not been paid. If the next player reaches $500, are they awarded the jackpot without hitting the right combination? Are the odds of hitting the jackpot better the closer you get to the "Must Pay" amount? Can you gain an edge by playing only when the must pay amount is closer? How close is close enough to change the odds?
Thank you!
That's a lot of question and there's a lot of different answers. You should decide on if you want to play these for a profit or entertainment.Quote: SingleCoinVPI have been playing video poker for about 15 years. I play for entertainment. The video poker odds at my casinos have dropped to a point where I am considering playing slots. Slots comps are more generous and the newer games are appealing. Another player recently told me about "Must Pay" slots. I have been looking for these slots and have found more than I expected. This leads me to my questions.
If the games are random, how does the machine pay out when the must pay amount is reached? For example, suppose a must pay jackpot is $500 and it has not been paid. If the next player reaches $500, are they awarded the jackpot without hitting the right combination? Are the odds of hitting the jackpot better the closer you get to the "Must Pay" amount? Can you gain an edge by playing only when the must pay amount is closer? How close is close enough to change the odds?
Thank you!
If you don't know how and when to play them at the correct numbers you'll get your ass handed to you. They are very deceptive. Most people see the high numbers and think wow this is going to hit soon and then end up sticking around longer than they normally would chasing that jackpot. No doubt that's the reason they're so successful. The average seat time and I must have must be higher than most other machines.
You seem to have limits on how much you're willing to lose during a trip to the casino. From what I gathered this is going to be way over your risk tolerance.
Sorry for the vagueness, but nobody's going to give you a copy of "How to play must hits for fun and profit."
Quote: sabreSome have an equal chance of hitting anywhere within the range. Others don't. Some get into +EV situations frequently. Others don't. Some places you can get on the machine while it's +EV. Others you never will.
Sorry for the vagueness, but nobody's going to give you a copy of "How to play must hits for fun and profit."
Quote: SingleCoinVPI don't expect them to. What I don't understand is how a machine can be truly random and have a must hit feature? Doesn't make sense.
The must hit is not based off of a certain combination hitting on the reels. It rises either based off of a percent of coin in (Ainsworth, for example) or a percent of each win is added to the must hit. There is a set amount pre-determined between the reset amount and the high. When the progressive goes past that amount, it pays out. Then it is reset, and the must hit amount may change.
The selection of the must hit amount maybe be equal over the entire range from reset to max, or it may be weighted heavily towards the high end (which I think most are), but it would be random according to a formula.
It's funny, but at last years Super Bowl get together, two individuals gave me some great information on the very subject. One person I'd never met before but he said he liked the way I posted on another website.
The year before, at the SB party, someone clarified a play I wasnt doing correctly.
There is an appropriate place to discuss plays. A public forum shouldn't be one of them.
Thanks for the explanation. I can see that the "Must Hit" jackpot can happen at any time. I'm not sure walking around looking for machines that are ready to hit is worthwhile. Let's say a must hit jackpot on a particular machine is set to pay at $500 and the progressive is sitting at $499.00. The odds of hitting the jackpot are better than playing a machine where the progressive is at $200. Right?Quote: rsactuaryThe must hit is not based off of a certain combination hitting on the reels. It rises either based off of a percent of coin in (Ainsworth, for example) or a percent of each win is added to the must hit. There is a set amount pre-determined between the reset amount and the high. When the progressive goes past that amount, it pays out. Then it is reset, and the must hit amount may change.
The selection of the must hit amount maybe be equal over the entire range from reset to max, or it may be weighted heavily towards the high end (which I think most are), but it would be random according to a formula.
Imagine a progressive where one pays $200 and one pays $499. Which do you play?
Suppose poker machines had to give a royal at least every 40,000 hands and had a meter for you to track. One meter is at 38,000 and the other had 1500. Does the meter change the chances of a royal appearing the next hand ?
Quote: SingleCoinVPGot it. There must be a level in the progressive where the odds are affected in a positive way? Is it possible to determine the odds of the game from the progressive size and the amount of hands required before it hits?
SingleCoinVP,
The Wizard of Odds has two pages discussing these "must hit by" (a.k.a. "mystery jackpot") games:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot-ainsworth/
Note, though, that the WoO's analysis is predicated on the assumption that "(the) point at which the jackpot will hit is randomly chosen on a uniform distribution between the starting value and maximum possible jackpot." This assumption may or may not be valid: some posters have opined that the randomly chosen point is weighted towards the high end of the min-max range.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
Quote: SingleCoinVPThis is great information. If I am reading this correctly, the average Vegas penny slot has a house edge of around 10%. Compared to the 97% video poker games my casino offers, I'm playing the better game. The comps are better on slots, but not nearly enough to make up 7%.
I personally think that 10% number is too low. I would say the average would be closer to 12%.
Yikes! I'm never going to bitch about my 97% games again.Quote: DRichI personally think that 10% number is too low. I would say the average would be closer to 12%.
Quote: DogHandSingleCoinVP,
The Wizard of Odds has two pages discussing these "must hit by" (a.k.a. "mystery jackpot") games:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot/
https://wizardofodds.com/games/slots/mystery-jackpot-ainsworth/
Note, though, that the WoO's analysis is predicated on the assumption that "(the) point at which the jackpot will hit is randomly chosen on a uniform distribution between the starting value and maximum possible jackpot." This assumption may or may not be valid: some posters have opined that the randomly chosen point is weighted towards the high end of the min-max range.
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
I think there is confusion with the use of the words "randomly" and "weighted" in the same sentence. I don't think both can be used together in this way. In other words, "AGS machines cheat".
Quote: SingleCoinVPThis is great information. If I am reading this correctly, the average Vegas penny slot has a house edge of around 10%. Compared to the 97% video poker games my casino offers, I'm playing the better game. The comps are better on slots, but not nearly enough to make up 7%.
The general idea is to play the must hits when the game is no longer -10% but in your favor
Quote: Ayecarumba
I think there is confusion with the use of the words "randomly" and "weighted" in the same sentence. I don't think both can be used together in this way. In other words, "AGS machines cheat".
I disagree unless you believe almost all reel slots are cheating. Most of them weight the reels but use a random selection for the position to stop on the reels.
A standard reel slot machine only has 22 possible stops per reel. If they weren't weighted you couldn't achieve odds higher than 22x22x22. The whole reel weight goes back about 30 years or so based on the Telnaes patent.
Our team has been has been hosting s Super Bowl party for about 4 years now. Quite a few Forum members attend along with friends and family. Think there's usually around 30 + people(?) We play poker (we even have a tournament last year),chess, game make prop bets, drink, eat good food and have fun. They generally last till the wee hours of the morning, There's usually something interesting that happens. Perhaps this year will snort coke off of a strippers stomach.Quote: billryanI don't expect anyone to give away that book. I'd pay $10 for it.
It's funny, but at last years Super Bowl get together, two individuals gave me some great information on the very subject. One person I'd never met before but he said he liked the way I posted on another website.
The year before, at the SB party, someone clarified a play I wasn't doing correctly.
There is an appropriate place to discuss plays. A public forum shouldn't be one of them.
It's by Invitation only to keep out the riff raff and darksiders , however, if anybody's interested they can contact me by PM.
Quote: AxelWolfIt's by Invitation only to keep out the riff raff and darksiders
But Billryan got in? :) :)
Quote: AxelWolf\They generally last till the wee hours of the morning, There's usually something interesting that happens. Perhaps this year will snort coke off of a strippers stomach.
Oh, is DJATC going to be there?
Quote: AxelWolf, There's usually something interesting that happens. Perhaps this year will snort coke off of a strippers stomach..
Or PG and Nathan will finally consummate their flirtatious relationship.
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Therefore, if you see an Ainsworth must-hit-by progressive jackpot that is not quite high enough to commit to but is reasonably high, e.g. $180.23 of $200.00, it might be worth putting just enough in the machine to nudge it up to $180.25 and see if it triggers. If not, walk away and let someone else get the meter higher.
Quote: McSweeneyAn observation I've made about Ainsworth must-hit-by progressives: I've gone after 14 so far in my slots career, and I've noticed that the jackpot ALWAYS triggers on increments of 25 cents. So it will always trigger at .00, .25, .50, or .75.
Therefore, if you see an Ainsworth must-hit-by progressive jackpot that is not quite high enough to commit to but is reasonably high, e.g. $180.23 of $200.00, it might be worth putting just enough in the machine to nudge it up to $180.25 and see if it triggers. If not, walk away and let someone else get the meter higher.
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This is an astounding claim. Nothing personal, but I don’t believe you. Are you saying you have ZERO chance of hitting the jackpot at $180.23 but a large chance of hitting it at $180.25?
Again, my sample size is 14 minor jackpots I have gone after. ALL of them have hit at .00, .25, .50, or .75. Sounds like too much of a coincidence to me.
My claim isn't all that extraordinary when you bear in mind that must-hit-by progressive jackpots, to my understanding, have a pre-determined number that the jackpot will trip at. It's unlike normal progressive jackpots that do NOT have a pre-determined time it will trip but rather you have set odds of tripping it each time you spin, and you are equally likely to trip it on spin 1 as you are on spin 500. So for whatever reason, I submit to you that when an Ainsworth must-hit-by progressive resets and picks a new number, it always picks .00, .25, .50, or .75. Must-hit-by progressives are Calvinist and the RNG has no free will.
In other words they have no problem quantifying a range that the game will more than likely reset too ($4995-5000) even though the game claims it can hit anywhere between $2000 and $5000 (or $4000 and $5000 depending on the machine)
So I think it's reasonable if they already have a propensity to quantify their ranges, that they might do something as described above.
The reason for it could be ease of programming or sloppiness during programming of the reset values to be chosen.
Quote: McSweeneyAre you sure Ainsworth makes River Dragons? I think that's AGS. It doesn't make the telltale Ainsworth sound effects of the reels spinning and the little win music.
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Ainsworth 100% does NOT make river dragons.
Quote: McSweeneyAre you sure Ainsworth makes River Dragons? I think that's AGS. It doesn't make the telltale Ainsworth sound effects of the reels spinning and the little win music.
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Oh sorry that's right.
Ainsworth, AGS, my bad.
Nonetheless my point stands. If one company does funky stuff with their musthits, others can too.
Would you pay 50 cents for a 1 in 79 chance of winning $180.25? The choice is yours!
Quote: McSweeneyI've run some numbers. In my hypothetical example of a $200.00 Ainsworth minor jackpot sitting at $180.23, there are 79 increments of 25 cents between $180.23 and $200.00, which means if you nudge the meter up to $180.25, you have a 1 in 79 chance of tripping the jackpot. These odds will improve the closer to $200.00 you get. It costs $5.00 of coin-in to move an Ainsworth minor jackpot meter up by 2 cents. If the house has a 10% edge, this $5.00 bet should really cost you 50 cents.
Would you pay 50 cents for a 1 in 79 chance of winning $180.25? The choice is yours!
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I don’t see how the 1/79 is calculated or correct.
I can see vultures stalking machines, playing for a few pennies increment and then stalking again waiting for ploppies to do the heavy lifting.
They already do it with plenty of variable state machines so they are already prepped on this method.
Quote: DieterYeah, I think it might be 1 in 80, if we trust the 25 cent observation.
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Oh I get it. Assumes every 25c increment equally likely to hit.
Quote: darkozIf it's true this is an AP move that should have been kept quiet.
I can see vultures stalking machines, playing for a few pennies increment and then stalking again waiting for ploppies to do the heavy lifting.
They already do it with plenty of variable state machines so they are already prepped on this method.
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A lot of irony here lol.
Quote: darkozIf it's true this is an AP move that should have been kept quiet.
I can see vultures stalking machines, playing for a few pennies increment and then stalking again waiting for ploppies to do the heavy lifting.
They already do it with plenty of variable state machines so they are already prepped on this method.
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While an interesting mechanic of Ainsworth machines, I think the advantage potential of this is rather limited. If you see a machine sitting at $189.52 of $200.00 and want to wait for someone to sit down and get it to a number closer to a 25 cent increment, you're probably going to lose the whole jackpot to someone who will just sit down and play until the very end. And if you want to stalk a machine all the time and try tripping the jackpot when it's at some terrible number like $170.99, the chances of tripping the jackpot are so low that it's probably just a waste of your bet.
I think if you want to shave a few dollars off your house edge losses, if you decide to sit down and commit to an Ainsworth must hit by jackpot, you should technically max bet until you get close to a 25 cent increment, then reduce your bet to only enough to get it to the 25 cent increment, and if the jackpot doesn't trip, resume max betting until you get close to another 25 cent increment. But the amount of money you save doing this would be so little that I'd be too lazy to do it and I'd just max bet all the time like normal.
By the way, I just got back from doing another $200.00 minor jackpot on Thunder Cash. It tripped at $199.00.
The mystery jackpot can be any number down to the cent. The *award* is then rounded up to the denomination of the machine.
