Vultering Harley Davidson Slots
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28 members have voted
In my gradual series on vulteralbe slots, my next one is looking like Harley Davidson.
For those who don't know what "vulterable" means, it is kind of like a progressive, where the return of a game will depend on factors left by the previous player. In the industry, they are called "variable state" games. Some players, who know about such games, are known to only play when such games are in a high enough state for the expected return to be over 100%. Thus, they are compared to vultures, looking for a nice peace of meat left by the previous player.
For those who did know about the play, it has been known for a while so I would say it isn't any big secret.
In the case of Harley Davidson, there are symbols on reel 5 that if the game stops on them anywhere on the screen, it feeds a free game into one of the bonus meters. When the player gets two scatters and such a symbol, then he gets to play the free spin bonus with as many free spins as in the meter at the table. If the previous player left enough free spins in the meters, it is a good time to swoop in and play.
As an example, in the picture at the top, there are 23 free spins in the Mini meter, 30 in the Maxi meter, and 97 in the Mega meter.
So, "When is it good enough to play?," you may ask. (Do I put the comma inside or outside the parenthesis?)
This has previously been analyzed by a source who shall remain nameless and his work shared with me with permission to write about.
After a lot of math, the return of the game is estimated to be 80.18% + 0.39% * Mini + 0.25% * Maxi + 0.09% * Mega.
In the case of the photo above, the return would be 0.8018 + 0.0039 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0009 * 97 = 105.38%. So, that would definitely be playable.
The question for the poll is what are your thoughts on Harley Davidson?
Quote: Wizard
So, "When is it good enough to play?," you may ask. (Do I put the comma inside or outside the parenthesis?)
Don't use a comma at all—the question mark does the punctuation work.
I'll look for these slots on my next casino visit!
Quote: smoothgrhDon't use a comma at all—the question mark does the punctuation work.
Correct. Also note not to use consecutive capitalized words. Best to just remove the "So," and start with the question.
Is this based on a parsheet?
If not, I'm skeptical.
I echo axles warning to err on the side of caution with this machine. It can be really nasty.
Quote: AxelWolfIf not, I'm skeptical.
You have the right to be. I'm not at liberty to say much about the math behind it.
I'm sure there are already Harley vultures on the forum. I'd be interested to hear if my formula sounds reasonable at least. Rigondeaux?
Quote: WizardYou have the right to be. I'm not at liberty to say much about the math behind it.
You do not say how many credits needed to max the free-plays. At a glance here this looks like a machine going to eat $3 or more per spin.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou do not say how many credits needed to max the free-plays. At a glance here this looks like a machine going to eat $3 or more per spin.
it varies I believe there are 5 betting levels and each level has it's own set of spins so you have to bet the level that has the spins. I have been doing this a while
Quote: Wizard, e return would be 0.8018 + 0.0038 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0010 * 97 = 105.38%....
What's wrong with my math... 0.8018+0.0874+0.075+0.097= 1.0612?
Quote: KatchWhat's wrong with my math... 0.8018+0.0874+0.075+0.097= 1.0612?
I rounded my factors the wrong way in my original post, which seems to account for the disparity.
As to the question on betting levels, I'll have to look into that.
Some places you can find 40/80/120/160/200 credit bet levels. More common is 80/160/240/320/400. Each bet has a different bank of free spins. To the extent that lower bet levels get more play, it's more common to find value at lower bets.
Axel is right that this is a hard game. It's not an in and out play like golden Egypt or ocean magic. Playing for these free spins is more like grinding out a must-hit progressive. It can take a long time and leave you significantly underwater despite the advantage you theoretically had.
One minor issue from the woo page - the wheel bonus's return is only constant in places with a fixed jackpot value. More commonly, the jackpot is variable and the wheel bonus's return fluctuates very slightly as the jackpot value changes.
Quote: RigondeauxI'm glad the wiz waited a while to post this, though I'd obviously prefer he never did.
I echo axles warning to err on the side of caution with this machine. It can be really nasty.
these harley slots are dying.
all of them have been removed from the casinos near me
one type of cabinet has a fixed $10k jackpot for the top prize.Quote: KatchIs that base the same on all cabinets or are there different settings available?
another has a progressive top prize.
no clue how this affects the return #s in the Wiz's OP
So that's something to be aware of. If you are vulturing a machine and doing well, and then all of the sudden you start to run horribly, it might not just be variance.
Thank you for all comments.
Quote: PokerGrinderI agree, I had adjusted my starting numbers drastically. I was only playing when mini was 55 or something like that.
I dunno if I've ever seen the mini that high. I never looked very seriously though.
Quote: PokerGrinderChasing a mega? Lol good luck with that. In all my play I only hit the mega 2 or 3 times.
When I was taking pictures for my article my friend was chasing the Mega. I eventually got bored of watching him and said "good night." He texted me about 15 minutes later, saying he hit it, for a $500+ win. However, I think he sank about $300 into the game before hitting it.
They awkwardly peeled off one by one as I got buried alive.
Quote: WizardWhen I was taking pictures for my article my friend was chasing the Mega. I eventually got bored of watching him and said "good night." He texted me about 15 minutes later, saying he hit it, for a $500+ win. However, I think he sank about $300 into the game before hitting it.
An outlier, ask DJATC about the one time he chased a mega lol. I think he lost almost 2k.
So after loseing a bunch of monyQuote: WizardWhen I was taking pictures for my article my friend was chasing the Mega. I eventually got bored of watching him and said "good night." He texted me about 15 minutes later, saying he hit it, for a $500+ win. However, I think he sank about $300 into the game before hitting it.
and AFTER you left your friend just happened to have a $500 run up.
Quote: AxelWolfSo after loseing a bunch of mony
and AFTER you left your friend just happened to have a $500 run up.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
At the beginning I couldn't help but win at Harley-Davidsons whenever I played them. Then suddenly I couldn't win at all. At first I thought something had changed for sure but I resisted that thinking and just chalked it up to confirmation bias or whatever you want to call it. Once multiple people started reporting the same experience I figured my gut feelings were correct.Quote: rdw4potusMore like its the same split, but with a longer bonus interval. So more cost in time and money to get the bonus, but then a bigger payout (or, at least, more spins) once you're in.
bigger payout on the bonus?Quote: rdw4potusMore like its the same split, but with a longer bonus interval. So more cost in time and money to get the bonus, but then a bigger payout (or, at least, more spins) once you're in.
i usually get 'free games x bet level (rounded up)' as my return.
so 50 games x 1.60 level would return $100 or less. (usually less)
are the payouts from your new version games much bigger?
The change could also be a high variance event like making wheel bonus more likely or increasing the overall probability of the jackpot. Do that, take some of the red HD symbols away and, there you go, everyone getting killed in a way that’s hard to notice.
Quote: bigfoot66I get a similar return. I would also exercise great caution with these. I once spent 12 hours and damn near 5 figures trying to catch a Mega at $2.40. I added 170+ to the meter.
$10k+ to hit the mega?
how much did you lose?
Quote: 100xOddsbigger payout on the bonus?
i usually get 'free games x bet level (rounded up)' as my return.
so 50 games x 1.60 level would return $100 or less. (usually less)
are the payouts from your new version games much bigger?
Yep, that's the rule of thumb here too. But the number of games when the bonus is hit is higher now than it used to be so the product is higher, too.
Quote:
In my gradual series on vulteralbe slots, my next one is looking like Harley Davidson.
For those who don't know what "vulterable" means, it is kind of like a progressive, where the return of a game will depend on factors left by the previous player. In the industry, they are called "variable state" games. Some players, who know about such games, are known to only play when such games are in a high enough state for the expected return to be over 100%. Thus, they are compared to vultures, looking for a nice peace of meat left by the previous player.
For those who did know about the play, it has been known for a while so I would say it isn't any big secret.
In the case of Harley Davidson, there are symbols on reel 5 that if the game stops on them anywhere on the screen, it feeds a free game into one of the bonus meters. When the player gets two scatters and such a symbol, then he gets to play the free spin bonus with as many free spins as in the meter at the table. If the previous player left enough free spins in the meters, it is a good time to swoop in and play.
As an example, in the picture at the top, there are 23 free spins in the Mini meter, 30 in the Maxi meter, and 97 in the Mega meter.
So, "When is it good enough to play?," you may ask. (Do I put the comma inside or outside the parenthesis?)
This has previously been analyzed by a source who shall remain nameless and his work shared with me with permission to write about.
After a lot of math, the return of the game is estimated to be 80.18% + 0.39% * Mini + 0.25% * Maxi + 0.09% * Mega.
In the case of the photo above, the return would be 0.8018 + 0.0039 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0009 * 97 = 105.38%. So, that would definitely be playable.
The question for the poll is what are your thoughts on Harley Davidson?
// In the case of the photo above, the return would be 0.8018 + 0.0039 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0009 * 97 = 105.38%. So, that would definitely be playable. //
What do you think the amount of bank roll would be required for this machine?
Quote: James85// In the case of the photo above, the return would be 0.8018 + 0.0039 * 23 + 0.0025 * 30 + 0.0009 * 97 = 105.38%. So, that would definitely be playable. //
What do you think the amount of bank roll would be required for this machine?
I usually figure 200 times the bet. Just have to hope the mega or maxi hits before the mini. The play ends when the mini is hit.
Quote: rdw4potusI usually figure 200 times the bet. Just have to hope the mega or maxi hits before the mini. The play ends when the mini is hit.
Insufficient funds!!!
Fortunately, I was only on it one of the two times, but I have seen two occasions where an $0.80 Harley bet on the Mini has taken over $200 cash to hit. Certainly not typical (or the play point would be a lot higher) but not out of the question. Definitely stuck in a second C-Note several times.
And, remember, if it chews through $200 once, it can do it again immediately after. With that said, I think $500 on the $0.80 bet would almost always be safe. Probably not always, but 99% of the time.
Anecdotally, I heard someone say they dropped almost three grand on a $4.00 bet going after a Mini, but I did not see it and there was no proof of the loss amount. Either way, that's well over 200x the bet amount.
I also think the potential downside on the Minis ($$$) significantly outweighs the potential upside unless you go crazy on something unrelated like wheel spins, or hitting some other bonus you weren't going for first. I think on a, "Good," play you'll profit more often than not, but you can also have some extremely bad results.
Quote: Mission146200x the lowest bet amount would be $160 on an $0.80 bet, not $200. I would consider $200 also insufficient.
Fortunately, I was only on it one of the two times, but I have seen two occasions where an $0.80 Harley bet on the Mini has taken over $200 cash to hit. Certainly not typical (or the play point would be a lot higher) but not out of the question. Definitely stuck in a second C-Note several times.
And, remember, if it chews through $200 once, it can do it again immediately after. With that said, I think $500 on the $0.80 bet would almost always be safe. Probably not always, but 99% of the time.
Anecdotally, I heard someone say they dropped almost three grand on a $4.00 bet going after a Mini, but I did not see it and there was no proof of the loss amount. Either way, that's well over 200x the bet amount.
I also think the potential downside on the Minis ($$$) significantly outweighs the potential upside unless you go crazy on something unrelated like wheel spins, or hitting some other bonus you weren't going for first. I think on a, "Good," play you'll profit more often than not, but you can also have some extremely bad results.
I think $2K works most of the time if you don't chase megas. $2K might be a little dicey on a max bet maxi.
