Shopping Spree progressive jackpot
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4 members have voted
I've been tasked with estimating the return of the game. To start, the progressive is won if the player gets five diamond rings on an active pay-line with a max bet. The max bet is $1.25 over 9 paylines, for a total bet of $11.25.
Just to do a quick and dirty estimate for now, I first recorded the frequency of the diamond ring symbol on each reel. Keep in mind there are three visible positions per reel. Here is my count after 100 spins:
| Reel | Count |
|---|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| 2 | 11 |
| 3 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 |
| Total spins | 100 |
A little math leads us to a jackpot probability of 1 in 7,305,195 with 9 paylines.
Given a full bet is $11.25, the return from the jackpot is 4.88%.
As a rough guess, I estimate Bovada slots to return 95%. Let's say that 2% is in the form of meter contribution, so 93% for the fixed pays. That would make the overall return 93% + 4.88% = 97.88%.
Questions or comments? I welcome others to gather more diamond ring data. You can play for free here.
The question for the poll is will you play Shopping Spree?
Quote: DRichWhat is the $227,298.64 number on the upper right hand of the screen?
That's what it shows the jackpot at in free play mode. It means nothing.
Quote: GWAEdid you play it in demo mode or with real money? Only asking because I would assume in demo mode they turn up the return to make it look better and get people to play. If that is the case then the frequencies could be off. If you played for real then nevermind.
I've never witness a demo mode game that operates this way.
Quote: sabreI've never witness a demo mode game that operates this way.
I have many many times. It is not unusual to put a much higher paying percentage game in Demo mode.
Quote: GWAEdid you play it in demo mode or with real money? Only asking because I would assume in demo mode they turn up the return to make it look better and get people to play. If that is the case then the frequencies could be off. If you played for real then nevermind.
Demo. I still think it's the same game.
Quote: WizardDemo. I still think it's the same game.
What makes you think that? I would assume otherwise unless I knew something specific.
Assuming that the play for free reels are the same as the regular game, I think each reel is 32 long, with 1 diamond ring each. This makes the progressive 1 in 3,728,270, when playing all 9 lines.
Your diamond results are feasible given the assumption of 1/32.
Quote: DRichWhat makes you think that? I would assume otherwise unless I knew something specific.
In games with quantifiable rules, they always seem to be the same in free and real play. Years ago I busted a casino that was letting people deliberately win at roulette in free play mode. It was quite obvious too. I blacklisted them for it. Since then, I've not heard of it happening again. Of course, that doesn't mean it hasn't.
If that doesn't help, I will file my assumption under "presumed innocent until proven guilty."
Quote: WizardIn games with quantifiable rules, they always seem to be the same in free and real play. Years ago I busted a casino that was letting people deliberately win at roulette in free play mode. It was quite obvious too. I blacklisted them for it. Since then, I've not heard of it happening again. Of course, that doesn't mean it hasn't.
If that doesn't help, I will file my assumption under "presumed innocent until proven guilty."
I am not sure that i understand your reasoning, but that is not unusual for me.
I always assume the freeplay game is set at a looser paytable than the real money machines. Not necessarily over 100%, but looser than the pay game.
Quote: DRichI always assume the freeplay game is set at a looser paytable than the real money machines. Not necessarily over 100%, but looser than the pay game.
I think we're going to have to agree to disagree at this point.
In other news, I played another 150 spins, for 250 total. Here is an updated table of data.
| Reel | Count |
|---|---|
| 1 | 19 |
| 2 | 20 |
| 3 | 20 |
| 4 | 21 |
| 5 | 23 |
| Total spins | 250 |
Quote: rxwineWizard, have you ever bought licensed software made by companies like IGT and others? It simulates the real games perfectly but return is always better Imo.
I had such software a long time ago, but think it was for Bally's.
In other news, I just finished a rough version of my new page Shopping Spree Progressive Jackpot at $4 Million. Please have a look. I welcome all corrections and comments.
Ring 64 48 44 65 65
Emerald 126 46 45 51 178
Handbag 111 122 123 118 104
Shoe 221 176 191 173 94
Perfume 206 261 216 289 284
Flower 365 338 442 398 512
Lipstick 483 517 465 502 451
Dollar 0 292 159 204 0
Mystery 224 0 115 0 112
Quote: CrystalMathHere are my results from 600 games:
Thanks! Without trying to calculate an overall return, mixing your data in with mine increases the overall return to 101.45%.
Quote: WizardThanks! Without trying to calculate an overall return, mixing your data in with mine increases the overall return to 101.45%.
But with such a high bet and variance, it would be a rough ride.
if you factor in the odds of it being gaffed, not getting paid, any fees associated with cashing out along with monthly limits and whatnot I would consider it not a play. The odds of not getting paid is low.Quote: CrystalMathBut with such a high bet and variance, it would be a rough ride.
However, I do believe Bovada has new player bonuses, bi-weekly 100% bonuses, various 100% holiday and event bonuses, cashback on your play, drawings, possible rebates and various other promotions. Those things might outweigh any risks involved. One would have to check if they have rules about bonus abusers or Advantage players.
The last time I checked anyone now living in the state of Nevada is not eligible to play on their site. If your account originated in Nevada and you no longer live in Nevada you must provide them with documentation you're no longer a resident of Nevada. They exclude other states as well.
Quote: AxelWolfif you factor in the odds of it being gaffed, not getting paid, any fees associated with cashing out along with monthly limits and whatnot I would consider it not a play.
However, I do believe Bovada has new player bonuses, bi-weekly 100% bonuses, various 100% holiday and event bonuses, cashback on your play, drawings, possible rebates and various other promotions. Those things might outweigh any risks involved.
The last time I checked anyone now living in the state of Nevada is not eligible to play on their site. If your account originated in Nevada and you no longer live in Nevada you must provide them with documentation you're no longer a resident of Nevada. They exclude other states as well.
Will Bovada allow you to withdraw 4 million dollars all at once ?
I'll let you know!Quote: michael99000Will Bovada allow you to withdraw 4 million dollars all at once ?
If I was eligible to play from Nevada I would use that strategy and play it.
Quote: WizardIn games with quantifiable rules, they always seem to be the same in free and real play. Years ago I busted a casino that was letting people deliberately win at roulette in free play mode. It was quite obvious too. I blacklisted them for it. Since then, I've not heard of it happening again. Of course, that doesn't mean it hasn't.
If that doesn't help, I will file my assumption under "presumed innocent until proven guilty."
The RTP varies by denom, so if zero is counted as a denom then I would expect the plumbing to be in place to vary the weightings to be more favorable in free play. It's also worth mentioning that casino games are heavily regulated but social casinos have no regulation and so all bets are off when it comes to these games. Social casino games are already a multi-billion dollar industry so we can expect to hear plenty more about that sector in the coming years.
