## Poll

 Yes, I could use \$4 million! No votes (0%) Call me maybe. 1 vote (25%) No, return still under 100%. 2 votes (50%) I disagree with your math. No votes (0%) I will help collecting data. No votes (0%) I disagree with your assumptions. No votes (0%) I wish I were at Burning Man 1 vote (25%) I'm Nathan 1 vote (25%) Every day is a gift, and today's was socks. 1 vote (25%) Total eclipse reminder 04/08/2024. 2 votes (50%)

4 members have voted

Wizard
• Posts: 26766
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
August 27th, 2019 at 9:36:05 AM permalink
If I'm not mistaken, the current highest slot machine progressive jackpot online is Bovada's Shopping Spree. The jackpot is currently at \$4,013,009. Our sister site, Casino Listings says he has been hit once only, over seven years ago.

I've been tasked with estimating the return of the game. To start, the progressive is won if the player gets five diamond rings on an active pay-line with a max bet. The max bet is \$1.25 over 9 paylines, for a total bet of \$11.25.

Just to do a quick and dirty estimate for now, I first recorded the frequency of the diamond ring symbol on each reel. Keep in mind there are three visible positions per reel. Here is my count after 100 spins:

Reel Count
1 7
2 11
3 8
4 5
5 12
Total spins 100

A little math leads us to a jackpot probability of 1 in 7,305,195 with 9 paylines.

Given a full bet is \$11.25, the return from the jackpot is 4.88%.

As a rough guess, I estimate Bovada slots to return 95%. Let's say that 2% is in the form of meter contribution, so 93% for the fixed pays. That would make the overall return 93% + 4.88% = 97.88%.

Questions or comments? I welcome others to gather more diamond ring data. You can play for free here.

The question for the poll is will you play Shopping Spree?

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
• Posts: 12120
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 27th, 2019 at 1:25:08 PM permalink
What is the \$227,298.64 number on the upper right hand of the screen?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
• Posts: 26766
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
August 27th, 2019 at 3:40:51 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

What is the \$227,298.64 number on the upper right hand of the screen?

That's what it shows the jackpot at in free play mode. It means nothing.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
GWAE
• Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
August 27th, 2019 at 4:35:29 PM permalink
did you play it in demo mode or with real money? Only asking because I would assume in demo mode they turn up the return to make it look better and get people to play. If that is the case then the frequencies could be off. If you played for real then nevermind.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
sabre
• Posts: 1172
Joined: Aug 16, 2010
August 27th, 2019 at 5:30:44 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

did you play it in demo mode or with real money? Only asking because I would assume in demo mode they turn up the return to make it look better and get people to play. If that is the case then the frequencies could be off. If you played for real then nevermind.

I've never witness a demo mode game that operates this way.
DRich
• Posts: 12120
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 27th, 2019 at 8:50:19 PM permalink
Quote: sabre

I've never witness a demo mode game that operates this way.

I have many many times. It is not unusual to put a much higher paying percentage game in Demo mode.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
• Posts: 26766
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
August 27th, 2019 at 9:19:54 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

did you play it in demo mode or with real money? Only asking because I would assume in demo mode they turn up the return to make it look better and get people to play. If that is the case then the frequencies could be off. If you played for real then nevermind.

Demo. I still think it's the same game.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
• Posts: 12120
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 28th, 2019 at 7:20:42 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Demo. I still think it's the same game.

What makes you think that? I would assume otherwise unless I knew something specific.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
CrystalMath
• Posts: 1911
Joined: May 10, 2011
August 28th, 2019 at 11:59:08 AM permalink
I really should be working, but...

Assuming that the play for free reels are the same as the regular game, I think each reel is 32 long, with 1 diamond ring each. This makes the progressive 1 in 3,728,270, when playing all 9 lines.

Your diamond results are feasible given the assumption of 1/32.
I heart Crystal Math.
Wizard
• Posts: 26766
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
August 29th, 2019 at 10:43:50 AM permalink
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
• Posts: 26766
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
August 29th, 2019 at 11:15:51 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

What makes you think that? I would assume otherwise unless I knew something specific.

In games with quantifiable rules, they always seem to be the same in free and real play. Years ago I busted a casino that was letting people deliberately win at roulette in free play mode. It was quite obvious too. I blacklisted them for it. Since then, I've not heard of it happening again. Of course, that doesn't mean it hasn't.

If that doesn't help, I will file my assumption under "presumed innocent until proven guilty."
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
• Posts: 12120
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 29th, 2019 at 11:25:34 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In games with quantifiable rules, they always seem to be the same in free and real play. Years ago I busted a casino that was letting people deliberately win at roulette in free play mode. It was quite obvious too. I blacklisted them for it. Since then, I've not heard of it happening again. Of course, that doesn't mean it hasn't.

If that doesn't help, I will file my assumption under "presumed innocent until proven guilty."

I am not sure that i understand your reasoning, but that is not unusual for me.

I always assume the freeplay game is set at a looser paytable than the real money machines. Not necessarily over 100%, but looser than the pay game.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Wizard
• Posts: 26766
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
August 29th, 2019 at 11:45:43 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I always assume the freeplay game is set at a looser paytable than the real money machines. Not necessarily over 100%, but looser than the pay game.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree at this point.

In other news, I played another 150 spins, for 250 total. Here is an updated table of data.

Reel Count
1 19
2 20
3 20
4 21
5 23
Total spins 250
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
rxwine
• Posts: 12455
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
August 29th, 2019 at 11:52:39 AM permalink
Wizard, have you ever bought licensed software made by companies like IGT and others? It simulates the real games perfectly but return is always better Imo.
Wizard
• Posts: 26766
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
August 29th, 2019 at 12:18:46 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Wizard, have you ever bought licensed software made by companies like IGT and others? It simulates the real games perfectly but return is always better Imo.

I had such software a long time ago, but think it was for Bally's.

In other news, I just finished a rough version of my new page Shopping Spree Progressive Jackpot at \$4 Million. Please have a look. I welcome all corrections and comments.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
CrystalMath
• Posts: 1911
Joined: May 10, 2011
August 29th, 2019 at 2:20:52 PM permalink
Here are my results from 600 games:

`Ring		64	48	44	65	65Emerald		126	46	45	51	178Handbag		111	122	123	118	104Shoe		221	176	191	173	94Perfume		206	261	216	289	284Flower		365	338	442	398	512Lipstick	483	517	465	502	451Dollar		0	292	159	204	0Mystery		224	0	115	0	112`
I heart Crystal Math.
Wizard
• Posts: 26766
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
Thanked by
August 30th, 2019 at 10:08:42 AM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

Here are my results from 600 games:

Thanks! Without trying to calculate an overall return, mixing your data in with mine increases the overall return to 101.45%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
CrystalMath
• Posts: 1911
Joined: May 10, 2011
August 30th, 2019 at 10:58:23 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks! Without trying to calculate an overall return, mixing your data in with mine increases the overall return to 101.45%.

But with such a high bet and variance, it would be a rough ride.
I heart Crystal Math.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
August 30th, 2019 at 4:32:46 PM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

But with such a high bet and variance, it would be a rough ride.

if you factor in the odds of it being gaffed, not getting paid, any fees associated with cashing out along with monthly limits and whatnot I would consider it not a play. The odds of not getting paid is low.

However, I do believe Bovada has new player bonuses, bi-weekly 100% bonuses, various 100% holiday and event bonuses, cashback on your play, drawings, possible rebates and various other promotions. Those things might outweigh any risks involved. One would have to check if they have rules about bonus abusers or Advantage players.

The last time I checked anyone now living in the state of Nevada is not eligible to play on their site. If your account originated in Nevada and you no longer live in Nevada you must provide them with documentation you're no longer a resident of Nevada. They exclude other states as well.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
michael99000
• Posts: 2113
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
August 30th, 2019 at 4:34:48 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

if you factor in the odds of it being gaffed, not getting paid, any fees associated with cashing out along with monthly limits and whatnot I would consider it not a play.

However, I do believe Bovada has new player bonuses, bi-weekly 100% bonuses, various 100% holiday and event bonuses, cashback on your play, drawings, possible rebates and various other promotions. Those things might outweigh any risks involved.

The last time I checked anyone now living in the state of Nevada is not eligible to play on their site. If your account originated in Nevada and you no longer live in Nevada you must provide them with documentation you're no longer a resident of Nevada. They exclude other states as well.

Will Bovada allow you to withdraw 4 million dollars all at once ?
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
Thanked by
August 30th, 2019 at 4:36:20 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Will Bovada allow you to withdraw 4 million dollars all at once ?

I'll let you know!
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
August 30th, 2019 at 4:38:18 PM permalink
Deleted
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22296
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
August 30th, 2019 at 4:38:18 PM permalink
My suggestion would be to only play when using a bonus or some type of promotion. I have a feeling that would be a really good value and shots at monster hit.

If I was eligible to play from Nevada I would use that strategy and play it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
p13man