Need help

Hello!

I need some help. I have gameplay statistics for Microgaming software (hundreds of deposits totalling 100 k euro). I am a bit worried about the fairness of the results. At the moment I have RTP around 10% which is 2.5 times higher of the expected house edge for the slots I play. I would be thankful if somebody could take a look at my statistics and advise me if those results are normal. Regarding my data: it includes amount of deposit, name of the slot played, play session result (before I lost the deposit or made a withdrawal), bet size and total wagering done.

Thank you in advance.

It's all down to variance and, typically how many times you won the bigger prizes. In the long term you are very likely to be within a few percent of the expected result, but for under 100,000 spins it is perfectly possible to be up to 5% out.

For instance a typical low risk machine that has a RTP of 92.5% (House Edge 7.5%)
(i) If you played 10k times, you might expect to be between 80-105%
(ii) If you played 100k times, you might expect to be between 90-95%
(iii) If you played 1m times, you might expect to be between 91-94%.

Thus, unless you play lots of times where the number of large prizes and features average out, it's possible to lose, and it's similarly possible to come out ahead.

Quote: abuyang1

Hello!

I need some help. I have gameplay statistics for Microgaming software (hundreds of deposits totalling 100 k euro). I am a bit worried about the fairness of the results. At the moment I have RTP around 10% which is 2.5 times higher of the expected house edge for the slots I play. I would be thankful if somebody could take a look at my statistics and advise me if those results are normal. Regarding my data: it includes amount of deposit, name of the slot played, play session result (before I lost the deposit or made a withdrawal), bet size and total wagering done.

Thank you in advance.

Hello, abuyang, and welcome.

I am not an expert in calculating this. However, I think there may be some confusion (at least by me) in what you're asking.

RTP is usually an average Return To Player over the long run for a particular slot. Nevada slots, for example, must return at least 85%. Other jurisdictions have other minimums, but nobody returns only 10% and stays in business. 10% RTP would mean that for EACH euro you wagered, you lost 90% of it. I don't think that's what you mean?

What is the expected house edge for the slots you play? Do they give you a number? If they do, it's somewhat unusual - that's usually proprietary information, and has to be derived or estimated unless you have the exact machine settings available.

Quote: charliepatrick

It's all down to variance and, typically how many times you won the bigger prizes. In the long term you are very likely to be within a few percent of the expected result, but for under 100,000 spins it is perfectly possible to be up to 5% out.

For instance a machine that has a RTP of 92.5% (House Edge 7.5%)
(i) If you played 10k times, you might expect to be between 80-105%
(ii) If you played 100k times, you might expect to be between 90-95%
(iii) If you played 1m times, you might expect to be between 91-94%.

Thus, unless you play lots of times where the number of large prizes and features average out, it's possible to lose, and it's similarly possible to come out ahead.

What number of sigmas are you assuming? Unfortunately, too many analysts seem to think that 5-sigma is needed to be proof of anything, which always leads to a conclusion that nothing anyone sees has any statistical significance.

There is a a concept called "statistical significance" or statistical confidence". If OP says he has 100,000 spins and is observing a staticstical average H.E. that is 4x the advertised H.E/ then I think that the correct answer is to say: "There is a statistical confidence of X% that the actual H.E is larger than the advertised value." That allows people to understand what their observations signify, without insisting on 99.5% confidence. Frankly, I manage to function and make decisions about my personal life despite the fact that many of my guesses about my day have less than 99.5% confidence.

Quote: beachbumbabs

What is the expected house edge for the slots you play? Do they give you a number? If they do, it's somewhat unusual - that's usually proprietary information, and has to be derived or estimated unless you have the exact machine settings available.

For online slots, it is a common requirement to list the RTP. 96% seems standard for games offered online in Europe.

Quote: gordonm888

What number of sigmas are you assuming?

It was about 95% confidence, that's why I used the term "might expect". As you say to prove that something isn't working or flawed you need a much higher number of SDs (and normally, pun intended, a reasonably high number of games).

In the UK, casinos have to list the House Edge, and typically the payback exceeds 96%. Some manufacturers also give an icon to say whether the game is low, medium or high risk. The former means you tend to win more often with lower prizes, the latter usually indicating features etc. are less common but higher paying when you get them. However I don't actually know the typical SD of these. If you get your hands on the Par Sheet it might state it indirectly.

I did talk with someone at a casino once and, if I understood it correctly, over a typical month most machines would be within a few percent on the stated House Edge. With millions of plays the number of times the largest prize (£20k) comes out obviously affects the result a little bit.

It is all fine and dandy to have a stated return rate, but meaningless. Return is composed of a few meaningless dribbles that are more annoying than useful, it is also composed of a major sum that is the lure for all those players.. at the end of a decade maybe someone hits it big.

Quote: abuyang1

Hello!

I need some help. I have gameplay statistics for Microgaming software (hundreds of deposits totalling 100 k euro). I am a bit worried about the fairness of the results. At the moment I have RTP around 10% which is 2.5 times higher of the expected house edge for the slots I play. I would be thankful if somebody could take a look at my statistics and advise me if those results are normal. Regarding my data: it includes amount of deposit, name of the slot played, play session result (before I lost the deposit or made a withdrawal), bet size and total wagering done.

Thank you in advance.

Hi and welcome to the forum.
Others have mentioned that your 10% RTP seems mis-stated.
I note that you mention 'deposits' and that has me wondering.
RTP of the slot is a multiplier of the total action (total wagered) on the slot. If you deposit say $100 in your casino account, and play at say $1 per spin, you would win some and lose some and your total action would be very many times that $100. Let's say you keep merrily playing and $1000 gets wagered and you still have some bankroll left.
If RTP is say 95%, then you will expect, at that moment, the machine to have beaten you by 5% of $1000 = $50
So, at that point you've typically lost 50% of your $100 initial 'deposit' That doesn't mean the RTP is 50%.

I created a simple fruit machine using totals of 7 die (where 7 6s paid the jackpot of £20k). I set the House Edge to 96.1% and heavily biassed payouts towards big wins (nearly half the EV comes from the top 5 prizes of £100-£20,000).

Starting with £100k (and only playing that many spins) the figures were as follows.
1% of people landed up with £72,539 or less
5% of people had £76,907 or less
5% of people had £124,356 or more
1% of people had £142,507 or more
The total money won by all players was 95.349%.
There were 3525 jackpots compared to expected 3572 (1 in 279936).
The SD was 8988 (for a £100k run).

With £1m the figures were 856k 884k 1.040m 1.075m so the results are even closer to what you expect.

Summary - 98% of the time you land up with:
(i) Playing 100k times : 72% to 143% of your starting capital.
(ii) Playing 1m times : 85% to 108% of your starting capital.

Thank you for your replies.

Some additional information that may help. The total number of deposits is around 600. The average amount of a single deposit is about 350. The total sum of deposits = 200k. The total amount of withdrawals = around 150k. The RTP of the slots I play is 95.5-96% (most often, Thunderstruck and Isis slots - both by Microgaming). Average spin size - 15. The total amount wagered - 500 000.

Hope this will help to make a more detailed analysis.

Quote: abuyang1

I am a bit worried about the fairness of the results.

AND YOU SHOULD BE!!!

https://www.casinolistings.com/news/2016/06/warning-avoid-all-betsoft-slots-and-casino-games

And yet BetSoft IMHO is one of the best there is compared to many other online slot providers that are even more rigged. As far as graphics, themes, gameplay, fun bonuses, they make far better games than even IGT.



NEVER ASSUME THE STATED RTP IS AS THEY CLAIM. Whats included in a casinos payback claims? What if they include Bonuses and rebates?

I play Microgaming almost solely. Think they are most reputable. Betsoft is another provider.