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15 members have voted

Frogs
Frogs
Joined: Mar 13, 2019
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March 13th, 2019 at 9:00:32 PM permalink
In the analysis did you account for the potential bubbles you are paying for? I may have overlooked this, but I didn’t see it mentioned. Also, I think you may be overestimating the frequency/overall return of the bonus. IME the OM bonus is far more rare than other machines.
Wizard
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Wizard
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Frogskgb92
March 14th, 2019 at 6:39:26 AM permalink
Quote: Frogs

In the analysis did you account for the potential bubbles you are paying for? I may have overlooked this, but I didn’t see it mentioned. Also, I think you may be overestimating the frequency/overall return of the bonus. IME the OM bonus is far more rare than other machines.



Yes, of course, I consider the possibility of more more bubbles than the guaranteed ones. As to the bonus, I went by industry norms where the bonus happens about once in 150 spins and is worth about 20-25% of the return. If I tweaked that, I doubt it would affect the strategy of when to play, as the bubbles don't affect the probability of getting the bonus.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 14th, 2019 at 4:23:09 PM permalink
I hear the bonus probability in this game is quite low and contributes to under 8% of the return. I already had a very low bonus probability, but I changed my simulation to lower the average win. That allowed me to increase the bubble frequency in Wild Bubble mode (as opposed to Bubble Burst). Here are the new returns by bubble position in the NEXT spin.

Row Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 116% 110% 255% 62% 35%
2 179% 202% 545% 96% 38%
3 178% 201% 539% 96% 38%
4 111% 104% 249% 59% 34%


Bonus return = 7.87%
Overall return = 85.46%
No bubble return = 29.74%

Here are the updated results for Bubble Burst mode.

Row Reel 1 Reel 2 Reel 3 Reel 4 Reel 5
1 68% 64% 143% 43% 26%
2 103% 114% 295% 67% 29%
3 102% 112% 292% 67% 28%
4 66% 61% 138% 42% 25%


Bubble from bottom probability (per reel) = 1.00%
Bubble Blast probability (per position) = 1.69%
No bubble return = 22.10%
Bonus return = 7.89%
Overall game return = 85.70%
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
RS
RS
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BozRogerKintHunterhill
March 14th, 2019 at 4:52:31 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

You've described the nature of the Beast pretty well

The plays if they exist are going to be discovered

You all sound like parents who every generation actually believe they can keep their teenage kids from having sex and are shocked when fheir daughter's pop up pregnant

"Gee how did that happen. We kept it all a secret from her. No way she could have figured it out on her own. Other people arent doing it, are they?"

Besides arent you the one that publicly keeps saying I dont know anything? No one on this forum believes that. You just act too angry about anything I say related to AP for that to be true


We aren't the ones that are shocked when a play gets burnt out. We know it'll get burnt out quicker when loudmouths think it's a good idea to share anything and everything.

If you know a lot and know the value of that information, then you're gonna keep it to yourself. If you know "just enough", then that's dangerous because you don't realize its full value nor repercussions of publicly posting up plays.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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March 14th, 2019 at 5:25:38 PM permalink
Quote: RS

We aren't the ones that are shocked when a play gets burnt out. We know it'll get burnt out quicker when loudmouths think it's a good idea to share anything and everything.

If you know a lot and know the value of that information, then you're gonna keep it to yourself. If you know "just enough", then that's dangerous because you don't realize its full value nor repercussions of publicly posting up plays.



Well to quote a famous film:

"Be afraid. Be very afraid."

The Fly remake I think or was it Poltergeist?
Boz
Boz
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
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RogerKintdarkozMaxPen
March 14th, 2019 at 6:39:59 PM permalink
Quote: RS

We aren't the ones that are shocked when a play gets burnt out. We know it'll get burnt out quicker when loudmouths think it's a good idea to share anything and everything.

If you know a lot and know the value of that information, then you're gonna keep it to yourself. If you know "just enough", then that's dangerous because you don't realize its full value nor repercussions of publicly posting up plays.



It’s obvious you need to “Wise Up” and get with a team that is smart enough to pass on Million Dollar weekly plays. And then link up with a team who is making enough cash to throw it in your face by asking a “Wiz” to do the math on a new potential play as a distraction to keep others from the real play.

Damn you need a mask to understand the difference between a joker wearing a mask while smoking 6 packs a day compared to formerly homeless bum miraculously transformed into being the leader of a “feared” AP team.

Way above my pay grade. Hopefully you can figure out RS, just don’t get robbed along the way.
Rent this space for only $9.95 a month.
Chuckleberry
Chuckleberry
Joined: Jul 23, 2016
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March 15th, 2019 at 5:31:30 AM permalink
From the WOO article:

"15. Each bubble will reveal wither 1 to 5 free games or 2 to 3 extra picks."
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. ~Seneca the Younger
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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March 21st, 2019 at 6:11:18 PM permalink
the Wizard appears on the GWAE podcast to discuss this - you have to stick with it because Dancer seemed to be surprised it was to be discussed

http://www.richardmunchkin.com/

PS , pretty amazing further developments in NJ it seems, this is good
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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odiousgambit
March 21st, 2019 at 7:22:56 PM permalink
So, they invite Wizard on to discuss this game, and Dancer's bored with it before they even get there. Munchkin has to bring it back in. I'm imagining the faces and gestures the 3 of them were making at each other whole that got negotiated on the air....lol.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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March 22nd, 2019 at 6:37:49 AM permalink
Dancer definitely wasn't "getting with the program" - it seems clear that Michael was mainly on to talk about Ocean Magic and new developments.

We have to stay tuned to the Wizard on this as he has revealed the saga continues as far as NJ online gambling goes - as he says "I never cease to be amazed"
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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